‎‎”Although gold and silver are not by nature money, money is by nature gold and silver.” - Karl Marx ...

2016年8月30日星期二

「經濟核冬天」來臨?歐洲銀行忙應對

【on.cc東網專訊】據外國傳媒引述消息人士報道,銀行正為經濟出現「核冬天」(Nuclear Winter)做準備。

所謂「核冬天」是指大規模核戰後,可能會發生放射性塵埃籠罩、長期異常氣溫、風暴驟增等氣候災難。

事實上,市場仍低估了英國脫歐的不確定性及對歐盟企業的盈利結果,這意味下半年日子不會好過。縱使環球股市近月做好,但像德意志銀行和瑞信等主要歐洲銀行股價在近月並未好過,當中蘇格蘭皇家銀行股價更自6月24日起下跌逾30%。

報道引述消息人士表示,金融服務公司已拿出了「經濟核冬天」的應對策略,最快是今年底前可能發生的最壞情況。最壞情況包括英國觸發《里斯本條約》第50條、其他歐洲國家的公投導致歐盟的分裂、或英鎊匯價跌至1.2以下等。

消息人士進一步解釋,雖然2016年的挑戰無法與2008年雷曼倒閉相比,但不幸的是,今年上半年發生的事件,令接下去會發生甚麼事變得撲朔迷離。同時,歐洲企業第2季收入不及預期,亦為之後的不確定性敲響警鐘。

2016年8月23日星期二

恐攻危機升高?冷戰落幕後首次,德國政府籲民眾儲糧


歐洲面臨的恐攻威脅升高,使德國政府在新編的報告建議民眾,多儲存飲用水及乾糧,以因應突發的武裝攻擊與天災,德媒指出,這樣的情況為冷戰結束後首見。

路透社指出,德國近日對伊斯蘭極端分子高度警戒,而在 月底慕尼黑的購物中心爆發槍擊案之後,德國官方於 月初宣布,將對警力、安全部隊投入更多經費,並成立專責單位打擊網路犯罪和恐怖主義。現在不僅官方有大動作,也呼籲民間一起動起來,更凸顯德國當前情勢的嚴峻。

路透社引述法蘭克福文匯報(Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung)的報導,德國內政部在《國民防禦概要》報告書中鼓勵民眾,為了預防恐怖攻擊、以及會威脅到人們生存的災害,鼓勵民眾貯存 5-10 天的飲水與糧食。報告中並沒有提到德國存在立即的恐攻威脅,但建議人民妥善準備,因應無法排除的風險。

德國內政部的發言人表示,這項計畫將於週三(24 日)提交與部長及內閣官員討論,不過他拒絕透露進一步的細節。

近年來歐央行頻頻擴大 QE,但歐盟經濟仍沒有太大的起色,又面對恐怖攻擊節節升高的風險,恐怕會讓德國人民對總理梅克爾(Angela Merkel)的移民政策,打上一個大大的問號。


2016年8月22日星期一

銀價帶動金價轉弱

石林
時正三伏天,西方稱之為夏季「狗日」(緣於天狼星與太陽同時升起)。過往金市在這段時期大多是處於夏日低迷狀態,今年有別於往年,在近兩年的偏高位區上落徘徊。
多國中央銀行行長本週將在避暑勝地──美國懷俄明州的Jackson Hole舉行會議,聯儲局主席耶倫的講話受到關注。在此前夕,美元匯價持續回軟後略告回穩,而金市維持窄幅上落,銀市則呈連續三週回落。
上周金市多次上試回揚,惟再受制於1358元(美元.下同)阻力,週末以1341.1元的周內偏低價收市。銀市上周高位止步於20.1元,週末更回落到19.255元收市,距離近七周高位徘徊區的底部19.2元不遠。
金銀兩市今年上半年反复上升,有別於往年的季節性規律。這個差別是否繼續維持下去,即下半年反告回落?還是回復以往規律,即下半年表現會更好呢?相信很快會有答案。
投資需求呈遞減跡象
本欄曾指出,金銀兩市中長線走勢在技術上回复上升,基本因素似未全面配合。以金市為例,今年上半年主力是靠投資需求的支持,最根本的金飾消費需求反告跌近兩成。黃金投資需求冒起,其中一個原因是全球經濟前景不明,部分資金以黃金作為避險工具。另外原因是全球利率處於零的上下水平,而美國再加息步伐一再停滯,遂使黃金成為較好的投資工具(請參閱上期所列的數據)。
此外,看好金價的分析者認為,稍後美元匯價會大跌,全球將出現滯脹局面,金市可持續看好。情況是否如此演變,很大程度要看聯儲局對全球經濟的看法,以及其利率政策,故耶倫即將發表的講話值得留意。
截至目前的種種跡象顯示,美國經濟表現並非太差,聯儲局無意掉過頭來再施行量寬手段,將繼續其貨幣政策正常化的路向。耶倫即將的講話,料會加強這方面的訊息。
若真如此,美國貨幣政策將與其他國家背道而馳,因此很難想像美元匯價會大跌、美國實質利率會再下降。此外,美國貨幣供應的流動速率仍向下滑,真不明白惡性通脹何以會產生。事實上,最近黃金投資需求已告放緩,上週五SPDR持金量為955.99噸,已從上月高峰982.72噸呈現遞減跡象。
金甲蟲指數見頂回落
再者,帶動金價從低谷回升的金甲蟲指數,上週已有見頂回落的跡象。還有,金銀兩市的投機熱度有所冷卻,未平倉合約量均從上月高峰明顯減降,淨倉數量也在遞減。這表示牛熊兩巨人均再無加賭注,反有溫和的平倉行動。
最後,最近金價回復與美元匯價呈反向的走勢,但上周美元曾明顯下跌而金價升幅只輕微,稍後美元若回穩,恐對金價帶來壓力。金價與美國10年債價仍一直維持同向關係,上週後者的收市價已跌穿近個多月徘徊區底部,而孳息率相應地回升到1.58厘水平,恐對金價不利。
中長線市勢通常是銀市帶動金市。如今銀市考驗近個多月來的高位徘徊區底部19.2元的支持,若然跌穿,一個頭部便可以認定銀價可能回跌至18.3甚或18元水平;回升阻力則在19.6及19.8元。動向指數顯示,熊方正重奪控制權。
金市恐受銀市帶動而轉弱,回升阻力由1358元下移到1350元。目前主要支持在1330元,此位若不支,金價會向下考驗近月徘徊區的底部1312元。今明兩周金銀市勢演變,料對下半年走勢取向頗有影響,宜留意之。

2016年8月20日星期六

Lord Rothschild Reveals World is Currently Witnessing the Greatest Monetary Policy Experiment in History






By Amando Flavio
 

The uncertainty of the global economy, which is mostly led by powerful countries in the West, has prompted concerns from many financial analysts.


When the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union in June 2016, the global financial market experienced fluctuations. Some even predicted that it was the beginning of the end for the people of the United Kingdom. Since the Brexit crisis, the majority of people without the financial eye believe things have returned to normal.


However, that is not the case. In fact, the future of the global financial market looks gloomy. It is unpredictable and unstable. Finally, a member of the Rothschild banking family has openly voiced his opinion on the current state, as well as the future of the global financial market. Many Conspiracy Theorists believe the Rothschild banking family is behind catastrophic events in the world, such as wars between nations in order to make profit from those calamities. It is said the family has significant influence on some of the powerful world’s central banks, including the United States.

According to a prominent member of the family, Lord Nathaniel Charles Jacob Rothschild, also known as the 4th Baron Rothschild, low interest rates, negative yields on government debt and quantitative easing currently happening in the West, are part of the biggest financial experiment in world history. Lord Jacob Rothschild is a British citizen. He is the chairman of the Rothschild Investment Trust Capital Partners. He said the consequences of what are currently unfolding in the global financial market are unknown.

Writing in his company’s semi-annual financial report at the end of June 2016, Lord Jacob Rothschild stated: “The six months under review have seen central bankers continuing what is surely the greatest experiment in monetary policy in the history of the world. We are therefore in uncharted waters and it is impossible to predict the unintended consequences of very low interest rates, with some 30 percent of global government debt at negative yields, combined with quantitative easing on a massive scale.”
The investment banker, estimated to have a net worth about $5 billion, further said this experiment policy by central banks has led to a rapid growth of stock markets, especially in the United States. According to financial experts, since 2008, United States stocks have grown threefold, with investments growing and volatility remaining low.

 The greatest monetary experiment in history.
 


But despite this deliberate manipulation by United States Federal Reserve officials, Jacob Rothschild revealed that the real sector of economy didn’t enjoy such a profit. He said growth remains weak.

Lord Jacob Rothschild also stated that there is weak demand and deflation in many parts of the Developed World. To authenticate the claim by the investment banker that some countries in the Developed World are indeed battling with deflation, according to a Bank of America Merrill Lynch report in June 2016, interest rates in the West, especially the United States, are at the lowest levels in 5,000 years. The current Federal interest rate of the United States stands at 0.500 %. In the United Kingdom, it is 0.250%.



Furthermore, in the battle against deflation, countries such as Sweden, Switzerland and Japan have even turned to negative key lending rates.
Another disaster in waiting on the global financial market is the current negative yields on government bonds. In June 2016, it was reported that a 10-year German government bond dipped below 0% for the first time in history.


http://www.activistpost.com

2016年8月19日星期五

貸款墜崖是貨幣政策之過?

陶冬天下 - 陶冬 2016年8月18日


  7月份全中國的銀行總共新借出4636億元,同比少增1.01億元,居民中長期貸款增加4773億。數據一公布,市場大嘩。銀行貸款再次出現斷崖式下跌,除了房貸外銀行業在7月份出現淨回籠狀況,這在歷史上極其罕見。

 
  7月通常是企業

貸款的小月,承兌票據業務因為受到監管收縮而陷於停滯,去年巨額股市貸款又造成了一個龐大的基數,所以7月份數據有一定的失真,不可完全當真。但是這組數據的確反映出中國經濟目前的問題,值得探究。

 
   有效貸款需求才是問題。今年以來,雖然政策意向有過大的波動,中國人民銀行的總體政策口徑是偏鬆的,問題出在貸款市場,而不在央行政策。1)讓銀行有足 夠信心放貸的項目愈來愈少。民營企業見不到盈利,國有企業和地方平台彌漫著不作為情緒,銀行找到高品質借貸客戶越來越難。2)經濟下行、產能過剩之下,銀 行對實業投資尤其是製造業投資十分審慎,這是銀行的條件反射,是市場行為。這兩點的共同之處,就是借款需求萎縮,直接影響銀行貸款數據。

 
   其實近來人民銀行做了很多事情,只是政策重點放在流動性管理上,而非傳統的利率、準備金率管理上。例如,債市利率持續大幅下降,近期發債的利率水準已經 低過銀行貸款利率,大型國企的資金成本大幅下降,甚至民企集資的利率也不像三年前那麼瘋狂了。同時央行的貨幣政策,愈來愈受到匯率的掣肘,象徵意義大一點 的利率、存準率一動便可能觸發本幣貶值壓力,加速資本外逃。所以央行著重流動性的數量管理多過資金價格管理。

 
  但是這些 並不能解開實體經濟中困局的核心--投資意欲低下。經濟活動不景,借貸需求自然弱,央行再灌水,也是流向金融資產,而非實體經濟,不僅幫不上經濟的忙,反 而在製造潛在的金融風險。發改委某部門建議「擇機進一步實施降息降準」,在筆者看來,是官員們的傳統思維模式,卻非刺激投資的良方。

 
   本屆政府的經濟政策始終以貨幣政策作主打,財政擴張幾乎消失,國企改革雷聲大雨點小,鋼鐵廠關了沒有三個月又開工了,新型城鎮化已經不提了,政策舞台上 來來回回都是中國人民銀行的舞姿。在經濟下行周期中實施逆周期貨幣政策無可厚非,但是政策擴張的乘數效應日漸低下,對實體經濟説明不大。7月信貸數據反映 出的正是這種尷尬--企業和銀行對貸款都沒有積極性,剩下央行用盡洪荒之力。讓中國經濟重新走上自主擴張之路,必須重新燃起民間投資熱情,在於開放利潤頗 豐的高端服務業,在於允許不同背景企業在競爭中成長。有了新的投資標的,借款需求自然產生。

 
  本文原載於今周刊,為個人觀點,並非投資建議或勸誘。

買黃金先諗輸乜嘢

作者 只係從一般簡單思維去了解黃金這東要


一個20年老友打電話來,話有啲錢想投資,乜都貴,但黃金好似仲幾平,2011年前高位1920美元一安士,而家1349美元(佢明顯做過功課),樣樣都創新高,佢距離高位仲有30%,邊度有得輸?

直到佢講最後一句「邊度有得輸?」之前,我都覺佢講得頭頭是道,但聽埋呢句我就覺得有啲問題。

我就話無嘢買落去一定唔輸,投資前第一個要諗的問題,唔係會贏幾多,而係會輸幾多,要預咗睇錯咗輸起上來,要自己受得起至好。

我自己都睇好黃金,認為可以等佢回吐時慢慢吸,到美國今年加一次息明朗化時,更大力啲吸,但要設想買完之後輸的情況:

第一,美元不斷走強。我經常覺得,主導黃金走勢主要是美元,而不是實金的使用需求,美元弱,黃金升,相反美元升,黃金跌。睇吓黃金同美元5年圖就知,兩者呈反向相關。未來睇好黃金,主要係睇淡美元長線升勢,認為美國即使12月再加一次息都有排加唔到,所以難阻黃金升勢。


黃金5年圖


美元指數5年圖

若美國只能有限加息的前題出錯,黃金就會不升反跌。所以若買咗金,或將會買金,要密切睇住美國經濟數據,要符合通脹上唔到、就業又唔會太強兩大條件,條件若大變,美國會連番加息,就要減倉。

第二,黃金無息變相有成本。黃金若相對無風險的港元存款,存定期只有0.5厘息,代價不太大。若然相對高息的房託,例如越秀房產基金(405),差別就大。405現價4.94元,有6.3厘息,你等到佢回落到4.43元才買有7厘息。

若 然長揸比較兩者,黃金無息收少了7厘一年,5年複式少了40.2%,即係話現價1349美元買金,5年後累升40.2%,到1888美元。這樣和買入在 4.43元買入405,5年後佢股價唔升唔跌都係4.43元,但計及收息其實同揸金升4成一樣。這就是買無息東西的成本。即係話若然黃金唔係升咁多,買高 息房託可能仲好。

結論唔係話黃金買唔過,只係想話俾大家聽買乜嘢都有風險。若想等回吐買金,可以黃金ETF,包括SPDR金ETF(2840)或價值黃金ETF(3081),這些基金價格則會緊貼金價走勢。

陸羽仁

http://www.bastillepost.com/

2016年8月18日星期四

Lord Rothschild: Why I've sold hundreds of millions of pounds worth of shares, and bought gold


Thx 馬兄提供資料


Lord Rothschild, chair of the £3.04 billion Rothschild Investment Trust, has revealed that while he has significantly reduced his exposure to listed shares, he has responded to the prevailing economic uncertainty by buying gold.



Lord Rothschild has been selling shares

Lord Rothschild and his family have an investment of well over £100 million in the Rothschild Investment Trust.

In his latest update to shareholders he commented that recent months have seen, ‘Central bankers continuing what is surely the greatest experiment in monetary policy in the history of the world. We are therefore in uncharted waters and it is impossible to predict the unintended consequences of very low interest rates, with some 30 per cent of global government debt at negative yields, combined with quantitative easing on a massive scale. To date, at least in stock market terms, the policy has been successful with markets near their highs, while volatility on the whole has remained low. Nearly all classes of investment have been boosted by the rising monetary tide. Meanwhile, growth remains anaemic, with weak demand and deflation in many parts of the developed world’

The veteran investor continued, ‘The geopolitical situation has deteriorated with the UK having voted to leave the European Union, the presidential election in the US in November is likely to be unusually fraught, while the situation in China remains opaque and the slowing down of economic growth will surely lead to problems. Conflict in the Middle East continues and is unlikely to be resolved for many years. We have already felt the consequences of this in France, Germany and the USA in terrorist attacks. In times like these, preservation of capital in real terms continues to be as important an objective as any in the management of your Company’s assets. In respect of your Company’s asset allocation, on quoted equities we have reduced our exposure from 55 per cent to 44 per cent.’


He added, ‘Our Sterling exposure was significantly reduced over the period to 34 per cent, and currently stands at approximately 25 per cent. We increased gold and precious metals to 8 per cent by the end of June. We also increased our allocation to absolute return and credit, which delivered positive returns over the period, benefiting from a number of special situations. Within this category our new association with Eisler Capital had an encouraging start. We expect this part of the portfolio to be an increasingly important contributor to overall returns. Our significant US Dollar position has now been somewhat reduced as, following the Dollar’s rise, we saw interesting opportunities in other currencies as well as gold, the latter reflecting our concerns about monetary policy and ever declining real yields.’

The Rothschild Investment Trust has returned 58 per cent over the past three years, compared to 15 per cent for the average trust in the AIC Flexible Investment sector, making it the top performing trust.
The trust trades at a premium to its net assets of 6.7 per cent.


http://www.whatinvestment.co.uk/