GOLDMAN: This Is What The World Will Be Like In 2012 And 2013

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Goldman Sachs is out with its first predictions for how 2012 and 2013 will shape up, and the news isn't all that thrilling. Led by Francesco Garzarelli in London and Dominic Wilson in New York, the team set out to forecast what markets, currencies, commodities and even central bank policies would be.
Their estimates are not so rosy. Rather, they paint a somber picture of Europe while world GDP growth falls further from earlier estimates.

Slow Growth For Two More Years in Developed Economies

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The thread holding the global economic picture together will remain one of slow, and in some cases negative, growth. Headwinds from austerity measures which have hit government spending will hit the U.S. and peer nations in Europe. Add in private-sector deleveraging, and a banking system that is on the cusp of further layoffs, and its not too bright. Goldman also sees high unemployment plaguing the advanced nation labor forces.  Source: Goldman Sachs

Emerging Markets Will Remain Resilient to the Challenges

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Issues that are facing developed nations will not move ot emerging markets. Inflation will begin to ease and economic policy will shift further towards prevention of slow growth. That theme has already proven itself at the end of 2011, as China's central bank, the People's Bank of China, cut reserve requirements by 50 basis points at the nation's largest institutions. Source: Goldman Sachs

Europe's Crisis Will Mar Global Growth

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The crisis that has enveloped Europe will not disappear at the turn of the year. Rather, Goldman believes it will continue to hold back global growth. The investment bank is decreasing world GDP forecasts by 20 basis points to 3.2% for 2012.  Low visibility of a European action plan will continue to negatively effect other markets that are reliant on the continent — particularly banking sectors laden with debt from the region. Source: Goldman Sachs

Recession in the Euro-area is Becoming Increasingly Likely

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Goldman Sachs now predicts a baseline GDP decline of 0.5% starting this quarter through the start of 2012, which will lead to a full 0.8% contraction. That compares to some of the hardest times during the regions 1992-93 recession. Specifically, the bank now expects mild recessions in the United Kingdom, Scandinavia and parts of Central and Eastern Europe. Expansion in 2013 looks modest at 0.7%, keeping to the tune of slow growth when there is growth. Source: Goldman Sachs

Equity Markets Will Have An Extremely Difficult Year

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Over the coming three to six months, Goldman economists predict the Tokyo Topix, Stoxx Europe 600 and MSCI AC Asia Pacific Excluding Japan Index to all decline. Europe will be hardest hit, seeing equities shedding 16% of their value before slowly returning to levels seen today. The S&P 500 is expected to remain tepid, moving in a small range over the coming twelve months. Source: Goldman Sachs

In Asia, Equities Will Fare Better

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While the investment firm shirks European equities, it believes non-Japan Asia has the largest upside potential, possibly to the tune of 14% by year's end 2012. Goldman estimates earnings per share will grow 5.6% and 12.0% for the region in 2012 and 2013, respectively. The analysts reason that low current valuations, coupled with a still favorable forecast for China will provide the boost. Source: Goldman Sachs

Sovereign Debt Yields Will Gradually Begin Rising

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Goldman expects that monetary policy will remain in its current iteration (read that as easy) and that inflation will be moderate. The bank believes U.S. 10-year treasuries will stay above 2% and ultimately move up to 3.3% by the end of 2013. Germany and the U.K. will also see increasing yields, while the former nation will lower its policy rates by 30 basis points. Source: Goldman

Currency Movements Will Weaken the Dollar

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In currencies, Goldman Sachs analysts predict a substantial weakening of the U.S. dollar as investors move to a global portfolio of bills. Specifically, the dollar will fall against the Mexican peso (to 12.50 pesos per dollar), the Chinese yuan (to 6.13 yuan per dollar) and the British pound (to 0.58 pounds per dollar). Policy action will continue to influence currency markets, which will likely benefit Asian countries like China, Taiwan and India. Source: Goldman Sachs

Crude Will Hit Record Levels

Fragility in energy markets as producers have difficulty expanding, will constrain resources and lead to higher oil prices. Goldman expects this to be the case so long that emerging markets continue to grow and require greater global resources. At current price levels, demand outstrips supply. "The oil market continues to set crude oil prices too low to clear the tight physical markets, leading oil inventories to reach exceptionally low levels for the time of year," lead analyst Francesco Garzarelli writes. Source: Goldman Sachs

Policy Makers Will Take Extraordinary Actions

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The announcement that the Federal Reserve is working with other central banks to lower swap prices aside, Goldman Sachs sees large moves in a number of developed economies. "We expect QE3 in the US, additional Gilt purchases in the UK and a reasonable chance of further Swiss intervention," GS lead Garzarelli says. Source: Goldman Sachs

The six trades Goldman says to make

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Goldman also has a list out of how to profit on these outcomes.

Click here to see the six trades Goldman says you should put on now >

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-10-things-that-will-happen-in-2012-2011-11?op=1#ixzz1fZLYHOut

羅耕:貨幣政策失效

留意美國數據者會發現，近月美國失業率處膠著狀態，不上不落；上落的僅通脹。怎理解呢？不妨以失業、通脹二率畫條菲臘普斯曲線(Phillipscurve)就會一清二楚。

2008年中至2009年中一段是下斜的，原因簡單：聯儲局由2007年秋至2008年底將逾5厘息全減，傳統智慧指貨幣政策起碼年幾才見效(今年諾獎得主ThomasSargent早有實證)，觀乎兩段日子相差剛剛年半，故可推斷這段日子(藍點)是政策見效期。

2009春至2010年中聯儲局推QE1，結果五季之後曲線再呈下斜(紅點)，但該次時間性(交叉點數)及效果(左移幅度)皆遠不及首輪寬松；至於QE2更全無效果。

看來long-run已到：money is already neutral。

默克尔呼吁紧急行动解决危机

歐洲走向統一財政區，又明顯了！跟宋鴻兵的預測路線，再行前了一歩。

　　新浪财经讯 北京时间12月3日凌晨消息，德国总理安格拉-默克尔(Angela Merkel)周五紧急呼吁欧盟各国采取坚决的政治行动来修复欧元区主权债务危机的根源，这场危机已经导致欧元区面临解体的威胁，同时也令全球经济面临重新陷入衰退周期的风险。默克尔提议的措施包括迅速修改欧盟公约等。
　　默克尔和法国总统尼古拉斯-萨科齐(Nicolas Sarkozy)已经达成了统一战线，为定于下周召开的欧盟领导人会议奠定基础，此次会议旨在对欧元区主权债务危机作出政策回应。
　　默克尔指出，欧元区扩大中的财务危机没有迅速修复的方法。她表示：“欧元区危机无法一举解决，而将是一个过程，这个过程将需几年时间。”默克尔将在下周一与萨科齐召开一次至关重要的会议，为12月9日的欧盟领导人峰会准备一系列提案。
　　默克尔称：“我们去布鲁塞尔(召开欧盟领导人峰会)的意图就是更改欧盟公约，其目标在于建立一个财政联盟，这个联盟不仅对其成员国执行财政纪律，同时也拥有必要的工具来有效地处理危机。”默克尔强调指出，她的战略一直以来都是利用这场危机作为实现欧盟长期改革的机会，尤其是在达成更加密切的政治协调来完善欧元区的问题上取得重大的进展。
　　但分析师指出，现在的问题在于这种长期改革不能根除迫在眉睫的危机。分析师认为，当前的形势正日益变得明显，那就是只有欧洲央行拥有足够的“火力”，从而给欧盟政府足够的时间来在短期内研究解决长期性的政治解决方案，才能彻底查明这场危机的根源。
　　在默克尔发表这一备受市场期待的言论以前，萨科齐于周四晚间在法国南部城市土伦(Toulon)也发表了里程碑式的讲话。在此次讲话中，萨科齐对默克尔长期以来倡导的立场作出了呼应，称欧元区国家应允许欧盟对其国家预算进行审查，并对违反预算规定的成员国实施“更加自动化的、更加严厉的制裁”措施。
　　萨科齐在这次为时一个小时的讲话中表示：“如果各个经济体不能趋向于更高的聚合性，那么单一货币体系就无法存在。如果欧元区成员国之间的生活标准、生产力和竞争力差距扩大，那么对于某些成员国来说，欧元迟早都会变得过于强大，对其他一些成员国来说则将变得过于弱小，到时欧元区就将炸裂开来。”(金良/编译)