Also Sprach Analyst認為如果中國貿易順差繼續減小、資本外流持續，中國央行很可能將通過在公開市場購買國債增加銀行系統的準備金，緩解銀行系統的流動性壓力。但美國、英國和日本的經驗告訴我們，銀行系統中超額準備金的規模跟信貸增速沒有密切關係。在資本持續外流導致外匯儲備減少的背景下，購債確實是維持中國央行資產規模進而維持市場流動性水平的唯一方法。事實上，如果中國政府下定決心刺激經濟增長，中國央行出手購買其他資產類別也不足為奇。“三元悖論”的觀點認為，中國央行沒有可能同時實現匯率穩定、貨幣政策獨立及資本自由流動這三個目標。資本外流、貿易順差不給力導致人民幣匯率承壓。根據“三元悖論”，在這種情況下，如果中國下定決心維持人民幣匯率穩定，那麼它要收緊貨幣政策，而不是放鬆。如果中國央行選擇通過購債的方式放鬆貨幣政策，那麼它必須放棄捍衛人民幣匯率或者阻止資本流動這兩個目標的其中之一。在資本外流的背景下，如果中國央行真的通過購債來注入流動性，那麼人民幣很可能將進一步貶值。
Today acclaimed money manager Stephen Leeb spoke with King World News about a coming move in gold to $12,000 and a mania in the gold shares. Leeb, who is Chairman of Leeb Capital Management, had this to say:“It’s already been reported that John Paulson and George Soros have just increased their gold holdings. Paulson, in particular, is really betting the house on gold. I believe gold now comprises 44% of Paulson’s fund. Soros, who also knows a thing or two about macro-economics, added a pretty big chunk to his gold holdings.”
Stephen Leeb continues:
Stephen Leeb continues:
“So we have some very savvy
investors moving heavily into gold. We also have people like legendary
value investor Seth Klarman, that are aggressively increasing their
positions in the mining shares. Klarman’s firm has one of the best
track records of any fund around for the last generation.
So whether investors are
looking to buy gold or quality mining shares, it is important for them
to know they are in good company....
“You’ve got a lot of smart people making very, very substantial bets on gold.
Market action over the past
couple of days has been surprising to me. For quite some time,
whenever we would see a strong economic statistic, gold would selloff.
That hasn’t been happening lately. We are seeing more inclinations to
bet on inflation going forward.
We have bonds weakening
significantly in the US today and gold is trading higher. The gold
price is really starting to anticipate the next wave of inflation. I
have maintained for some time now that this bull market in gold, that we
have seen so far, has just been the first leg of a market that is
anticipating inflation.
It’s starting to feel like
the bull market is now going to expand. Once we start to really see
inflation take off, you are going to see gold rocket higher. Gold has
done what it has so far with a combination of inflation and deflation.
When we start to see inflation really ignite, that transition in gold is
going to be something to behold. Gold holders are in a very strong
position now, with very little downside risk.
We are going to see things
in the gold market that we haven’t seen since the 1970s. Keep in mind
that the whole move during the leg of that bull market, from 1976 to
1980, was an inflation move in gold. There was no real period of time
where we had all of these monetary aggregates build up. We just went
into very serious inflation.
Gold, between 1976 to 1980,
went from roughly $100 to $800. Well, if you do that kind of math for
gold over the next four or five years and you multiply $1,600 by a
factor of 8, that takes the price of gold well over $12,000.”
Leeb also added:“I just want to help people here and my message is to own gold. But
again I have to say something about these junior gold stocks. For these
major gold companies that are looking to replace their reserves, they
are going to have to start buying the quality junior gold companies.
Investors can expect to see a lot of acquisitions.
I would prefer for
investors to own these juniors because the quality shares will end up in
a mania at some point. The last leg of the 70s bull market saw
incredible gains in junior mining shares and I expect the same thing
this time around. The bottom line is this is an ideal buy point for
gold and the mining shares. As I said, there is very little downside
and enormous upside potential.”
The CIA-sponsored psy-op Wikileaks have released emails regarding Stratfor, the private intelligence firm that brought attention to Trapwire . With information provided by Anonymous, a CIA funded hacker group, this surveillance system has been installed across America.
Having been created by a group of American business men, in
conjunction with the CIA, use of Trapwire has been justified because of
9/11 attacks, threats from al-Qaeda and further efforts in the war on
terrorism. By sacrificing “sensitive or personally identifiable
information” the US government has given itself permission to implement a
super-spying control grid that encompasses all modes of surveillance in
one centralized operational software technology.
We see the surveillance cameras in retail stores across the nation,
never suspecting that those devices are being used to track our
movements and records or behavior for the benefit of the burgeoning Big
Brother control grid.
In the name of potential terrorist attack prevention, Trapwire
combines state-defined suspicious activity reports and other “evidence”
that justify all-encompassing surveillance of the general public. The
beauty of Trapwire as a Big Brother control software de jour, is that it is “a unique, predictive software system designed to detect patterns of pre-attack surveillance.” A press release
from June, states that Trapwire is “designed to provide a simple yet
powerful means of collecting and recording suspicious activity reports.”
A system of interconnected nodes spot information considered to be
suspect and then inputs it into the system to be “analyzed and compared
with data entered from other areas within a network for the purpose of
identifying patterns of behavior that are indicative of pre-attack
planning.”
Trapwire looks
for “any patterns detected – links among individuals, vehicles or
activities – will be reported back to each affected facility. This
information can also be shared with law enforcement organizations,
enabling them to begin investigations into the suspected surveillance
cell.”
The proclaimed goal of Trapwire, as explained
by Richard Helms, CEO of Trapwire is to “collect information about
people and vehicles that is more accurate than facial recognition, draw
patterns, and do threat assessments of areas that may be under
observation from terrorists.” By identifying “behavior patterns”
Trapwire is the ultimate in identity surveillance because it can create a timeline of past, present and predict the future on any individual it is analyzing.
The system can collaborate
with existing camera technologies, combined with intelligence
communities to data mine through all digital sources for informational
comparison across all internet networks – such as information provided
readily on social networking sites.
Every few seconds, data from remote cameras in all major cities is
encrypted, and then sent digitally to an undisclosed central database
center to be aggregated with other intelligence.
In Los Angeles, the police department has unveiled iWatch which is a Trapwire surveillance system. Other cities such as the District of Columbia, New York City’s See Something, Say Something program; as well as private casino corporations in Las Vegas, Nevada have employed Trapwire along with the Pentagon, CIA and many military facilities .
Trapwire has been employed
worldwide by private sector multi-national corporations and foreign and
domestic governments. The White House is surveilled by the same company
as Wal-mart with all data going to fusion centers .
In Australia, the governmental transportation and defense contractors have implemented Trapwire under a $370 million deal to spy on Sydney’s public transportation ticketing system based on London’s Oster card.
Trapwire has also been granted $32 million in defense contracts with
the Australian Defense Force (ADF) to provide simulation training
systems.
According to a spokesperson for the ADF, ”The Department of Defense
is aware of the Trapwire System. However, it would be inappropriate to
provide further comment on this system or its capabilities” with regard
to “intelligence or operational capabilities.”
This Big Brother surveillance system which has been justified
since the state-sponsored attacks on 9/11 because of the necessity of
the global war on terror, has made America a lucrative customer and
“high-value target”.
While the highly "sophisticated" traders that make up the gold market
continue to buy or sell the precious metal based on whether the Fed will
or will not do the NEW QE tomorrow (or just because, like Bruno Iskil,
they have a massive balance sheet, and can create margin position out of
thin air with impunity), China continues to do one thing.
Buy.
Because while earlier today we were wondering (rhetorically, of course)
what China is doing with all that excess trade surplus if it is not
recycling it back into Treasurys, now we once again find out that
instead of purchasing US paper, Beijing continues to buy non-US gold, in
the form of 68 tons in imports from Hong Kong in the month of June. The
year to date total (6 months)? 383 tons.
In other
words, in half a year China, whose official total tally is still a
massively underrepresented 1054 tons, has imported more gold than the
official gold reserves of Portugal, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, the UK, and
so on, and whose YTD imports alone make it the 14th largest holder of
gold in the world. Realistically, by now China, which hasn't provided an
honest gold reserve holdings update to the IMF in years, most certainly
has more gold than the IMF, and its 2814 tons, itself.
Of course, the moment the PBOC does announce its official updated gold
stash, a gold price in the mid-$1000 range will be a long gone memory.
Here is the latest breakdown of gold reserves by Top 20 countries via the WGC:
