Calculating correlations & plotting the price charts for Gold headed to $5000?

http://marketoracle.co.uk/

Jun 25, 2011 - 07:43 AM

By: Willem_Weytjens

After writing an article about the Platinum-to-Gold ratio, I decided to do more with the excel sheet, like calculating correlations and plotting the price charts for example.

In this article, I will just focus on the Gold price.

Here we go, the Monthly average Gold Price since January 1968:

It looks a bit bubbly, right?

If you think this looks like a bubble, then please have a look at this Log-scaled chart, which looks far from bubbly:

The thing I observed was that the price action in Gold from early 2000 until today was similar to the price action from 1968 until April 1979. Let me show you:

One might argue that the price action from 1972 until 1975 is not similar. I agree. However, the correlation between the gold price from 1968 until 1979 and the gold price from early 2000 until today is an amazing 89,65%.

Now what else did I notice? That the price action from November 1975 until April 1979 is almost exactly the same as the price action from January 2008 until today. To show you, here is a chart:

If this monthly chart was not convincing enough, here is a weekly chart (click the chart to ENLARGE):

Chart created with Prorealtime.com

How high do you think the correlation between both periods is (measured on a monthly basis)?

That’s right, an astonishing 97,83%!

Don’t believe me? Here is the excel sheet I used, with data from Kitco.com

So what would be a price target for gold, based on the 1981 intraday high of $873 per ounce if the correlation would hold?

That’s right, $5,000 per ounce:

Now you have another way to look at mr. Armstrongs prediction of $5,000 gold.

Willem Weytjens
www.profitimes.com