黃金與白銀：宏觀階段概覽

 

一些讀者希望了解黃金和白銀目前在整體市場週期中的位置。隨附的月線圖將這兩種金屬與主要趨勢的三個經典階段進行了對比。

累積階段

公眾參與階段

超買階段

道氏理論首先提出了所有主要趨勢都經歷三個階段的概念。首先是知情資金的早期累積階段，隨後是廣泛的公眾參與階段，最後是投機和情緒化決策的超買階段。

拉爾夫·納爾遜·艾略特後來完善了這個理論，將趨勢分解為五浪結構。三個推動浪順應趨勢方向，中間穿插兩股修正浪。艾略特在道氏理論的基礎上，結合市場心理學，並運用斐波那契比率來識別典型的回調和延伸區域。

圖表顯示內容

在兩張圖表中，藍色陰影區域代表公眾參與階段。這是周期中趨勢變得明顯、動能累積、參與度擴大的階段。

黃金和白銀都已進入這一階段，但它們在波浪結構中的位置並不相同。

黃金已完成第1浪至第4浪，目前正處於第5浪，即公眾參與階段的最後一個推動浪。右側的紅色陰影區域突顯了未來的超額階段，斐波那契擴展線標示了該階段可能發展的潛在區域。

另一方面，白銀目前仍處於公眾參與階段的第3浪。儘管它已經出現了一波強勁的上漲，但第3浪通常是周期中最強勁、漲幅最大的部分。白銀在進入超額階段之前，還需要經歷第4浪的回檔和第5浪的上漲。

這種差異的意義何在？

黃金主要是一種對沖貨幣不穩定、金融壓力和不確定性的工具。由於資本尋求避險，黃金往往在周期早期引領市場。

白銀扮演著雙重角色。它既是貴金屬，也是工業金屬。在經濟不確定時期，白銀價格往往與黃金走勢一致；而隨著經濟成長、工業需求和基礎設施支出的增加，白銀價格隨後往往會加速上漲。這就是為什麼白銀通常在周期初期表現落後於黃金，而在周期後期表現優於黃金的原因。

同樣的框架，同樣的周期，不同的定位。

一如既往，時間框架至關重要。

https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1MwFBVesQB/?mibextid=wwXIfr

Ray Dalio: "Global monetary order is breaking."

 

Ray Dalio: "Global monetary order is breaking."

Dalio thinks the US and the allies are losing trust in one another, so central banks don't want to hold the US bonds.

This is why commodities are skyrocketing, and it's not going to reverse anytime soon.

His advice? Buy gold.

The new Chinese silver export control policy is very real and far from insignificant.

 

The official announcement from China’s Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) may appear somewhat technical or understated, likely to avoid immediate international backlash; but it effectively tightens oversight by requiring government licenses and limiting exports primarily to a select list of 44 approved large-scale companies for 2026–2027. This elevates silver to strategic material status (similar to rare earths), with requirements like minimum annual production capacity (e.g., 80 tons) and substantial credit lines, sidelining smaller and mid-tier exporters.

U.S. mainstream media and certain bullion bank “affiliates” have downplayed or misrepresented the policy’s impact, framing it as routine or negligible. That’s actually beneficial for those paying close attention. Our edge in this high-stakes battle comes from seeing through the noise and understanding the real supply dynamics at play.

This is mortal combat in the precious metals arena: China’s dominance in refined silver production (60–70% of global supply) means these restrictions are already contributing to physical tightness, surging premiums, and upward pressure on prices amid persistent global deficits and booming industrial demand (solar, EVs, electronics, AI hardware, military). 

Knowledge is power here—stay sharp.

UPDATE: MICHAEL OLIVER - SILVER'S VERTICAL EXPLOSION IS HERE – $300 TO $500 AHEAD!

Legendary technician Michael Oliver, founder of Momentum Structural Analysis and the man who nailed the 1987 crash, just dropped a bombshell on the Daniela Konet Show. He says silver is no longer in a boring bull market—it's breaking into a "new reality" with vertical, breathtaking gains starting now.

THE BIG BREAKOUT SIGNAL 

✅ Silver smashed through its long-term ceiling versus gold in November 2025. 

➡️ That exact spread breakout triggered massive vertical runs in the past—like copper quadrupling in 2005. 

🔥 Oliver: "We're in one of these 'move to new reality' phases... much of it is going to occur in a few quarters."

THE TIMELINE & SPEED 

✅ The clock started at the November close—gains accelerate from December onward. 

📈 Pullbacks are shrinking from months to weeks to hours—things are speeding up dramatically. 

⚡ "It's going to go vertical... likely to take your breath away."

THE PRICE TARGETS 

✅ Base case: Silver heads into the couple hundreds soon. 

🚀 Upside potential: $300 to $500 per ounce, possibly by Q2 2026. 

💥 With gold potentially at $8,000 (an 8-fold move seen twice before), silver at 3-6% of gold hits $240-$480—right in Oliver's zone.

WHY NOW? THE BIG PICTURE DRIVERS 

✅ Silver was compressed for half a century in a $4-$50 range—manipulation created massive pent-up energy.

➡️ When barriers break, it unleashes "panic on the upside." 

🌍 Monetary crisis brewing: T-bond market failing, fiat in jeopardy, central banks fleeing to real assets. 

📉 Bond panic could trigger a "nuclear event" forcing massive printing—gold & silver explode as real money.

THE WARNING & OPPORTUNITY 

✅ Most people still doubt—looking at arithmetic charts and calling tops after doubling. 

❌ Oliver: Buy the 10-15% dips anyway; history shows they're rocket fuel. 

🔄 "If you see a 10-15% drop... buy it anyway. You're way ahead of the game."

THE BOTTOM LINE 

Michael Oliver sees silver entering a historic, sudden repricing phase driven by technical breakout, monetary crisis, and compressed energy—potentially rocketing to $300-$500 in months, not years.

Silver isn't slowing down—it's just getting started. Don't get left behind in the old reality.

HT:  YouTube ITM TRADING, INC @Oliver_MSA 

#Silver #PreciousMetals #Gold #MonetaryCrisis #SilverSqueeze #Investing #BullMarket

「羅塞塔石碑」：從黃金與標普 500 比率看股市的百年大循環

 

尋找市場的底層邏輯

在投資世界中，我們常在尋找一種能指引長線方向的「羅塞塔石碑」。這張圖表對比了**黃金（抗通膨資產）與標普 500 指數（風險資產）**的比值。這個比率反映了資本在「實質價值」與「企業增長」之間的流動。當比率築底回升，通常預示著財富轉移的大週期開始。

核心觀察：歷史上的三次大崩盤

圖表回溯了過去一百年，每當這個比率出現特定底部形態時，股市隨後都迎來了災難性的表現：

1. 事件 #1 (1929年 V型底)： 著名的經濟大蕭條。股市崩盤後，整整花了 24 年才回升至當初的高點。

2. 事件 #2 (1960年代末 U型底)： 經歷了兩次暴跌（35% 與 50%），結果是股市整整 12 年原地踏步。

3. 事件 #3 (2000年 V型底)： 網路泡沫與金融海嘯的連環打擊，同樣導致股市在接下來的 12 年內毫無進展。

關鍵轉折：我們正處於「事件 #4」？

圖表最引人注目的是右側的現狀。我們正處於一個巨大的「U型底」，且正試圖突破一條長達 40 年的下降壓力線。

• 技術形態： 比率已經築底完成，正準備向上噴發。

• 作者預測： 若歷史重演，標普 500 指數可能面臨至少 35% 的修正，甚至更多。

• 財富轉向： 圖表中的黑色箭頭大膽預言，黃金相對於股市將會有一段「非常漫長」的跑贏期。

這張圖表並非預言明天就會崩盤，而是在提醒我們大循環的轉變。過去十幾年，量化寬鬆讓股市成為唯一的選擇；但在通膨黏性與地緣政治波動的背景下，資金似乎正在重回「實質資產」的懷抱。