Euro Alert!!!

Euro Alert!!!

Today's news (out of Europe): Banks and bondholders may be forced to write down 50-60% of Greece debt which should send shock waves across the banking sector and global markets. European banks are leveraged 25 to 1, that's double of even U.S. banks! To give you an idea of just how bad this is, Lehman was leveraged 30 to 1. However, the most important thing to remember is the 25 to 1 leverage number is based off of what the banks say their asset values are, now does anyone honestly believe that the banks are being honest with these numbers? Total official debt for financial companies (excluding derivatives) in Europe is 23 TRILLION!!! That is 43% more than the entire European annual GDP!

Since a bailout from Greece's neighbors is politically impossible, FutureMoneyTrends.com would have to assume that these type of write downs being talked about would make European banks insolvent as the numbers just don't add up. Which is probably why gold this morning is up $57 per ounce and silver is up $1.55.

Questions Investors Should be Asking Themselves

How long after Greece officially defaults with bondholders taking a 50-60% loss will we hear other nations requesting the same type of rescue package?

How long until investors loose complete faith in the EU and jump ship?

IF, and it's a very big IF, governments try to recapitalize banks, this will lead to a domino of downgrades and even more chaos in Europe. Will Europe collapse or print print print?

Charles Hugh Smith put it best yesterday when he said, "The dominoes of debt are toppling in Europe, and there is no way to stop the forces of financial gravity."

For the past 2 years, we have seen crisis and postponement in Europe, fake fixes, proposals, and speeches from European leaders.

The trend of March 2010 to August 2011 was that when the Greece crisis was on the front pages of the news, global markets went down and gold and silver went up. This trend was broken in September, but as of today, it appears to be back in tact, perhaps the trend was only broken due to the huge run up in silver and gold during the summer. Or perhaps it was that certain powers that be didn't want $2,000 gold and $60 silver in the face of a Euro collapse. Either way, it appears the trend is back and the demand for physical metal is overwhelming the fractional reserve gold paper trading and leasing supported by the biggest banks on earth.

As far as the timing, the powers that be have showed an incredible ability to postpone the inevitable, however, with economies slowing and stimulus increasingly unpopular with voters, FutureMoneyTrends.com puts the sovereign debt crisis reality check sometime between now and the end of next year. This is why we are sending an urgent alert to all of our members and their families to keep their wealth away from Europe, anything held in Euros, in our opinion, is extremely risky.

Overall Europe is in very bad shape when you take a look at the books.

Nations like France and Italy spend more than 14% of their GDP just on pensions to retired government workers.
In order for EU nations to pay for their unfunded promises of national health care, pensions, and other social programs, each EU nation would need at least 400% more than their current GDP!
Germany, the so called economically strong nation in the EU, has unfunded liabilities of more than 7 trillion Euros, with their official debt to GDP ratio at 78%. However, when you actually include what they really owe, debt to GDP is 284%.
Even German ex-central banker, Axel Weber, has warned that Germany is much worse than people believe.
They live beyond their means, especially the southern nations. Greece for example has increased salaries for state officials by 76% since the introduction of the Euro, wages overall have increased by 42%. The easy credit and low interest rates have given fiscally irresponsible nations a false sense of how much debt they can afford.
Spain and Portugal will not meet their deficit reduction targets this year or ever, in our opinion.
Italian Government is on the brink of collapse.
We are getting reports that bank runs in Greece have already begun, one report stated that this morning over 5,000 customers lined up in order to make withdraws. Up to half are transferring their wealth out of the country.

When you look at Greece, their debt chart trajectory looks a lot like the U.S. Greece has seen a 46% increase in government debt in the past 4 years, the U.S. has seen an increase of 72%. Yes the U.S. is worse, however, the U.S. can print the world reserve fiat currency, Greece can't.

In our opinion, the dominoes have begun to fall, first Greece, then the banks, then the Euro. The great sovereign debt crisis of 2012 has begun. Are you ready?

青心直說：金融毒品借屍還魂記

唔怕你精...只怕你唔來.....

中環的迷債苦主還在追討中.... 

iBank 故技重施.....

年紀較輕之80後經紀，對成交越來越少的市場，已有點意興闌珊，深知股票經紀這一行已成夕陽行業，心急謀出路好正常，美少女股評人搭上公仔箱財經節目男主播，也屬增值之途，既可爭取曝光，更可順便為人生大事鋪路，堪稱一石二鳥。筆者幾時都話，趁年輕沒有甚麼包袱時努力增值，係提升個人競爭力以突破困局的最理想投資。


為前途發愁的又何只經紀，連iBanker也不例外，有位剛由大摩跳槽至瑞士糖之私人銀行家，本慶幸自己及時轉工，皆因前者已講明今年B仔得個「冬甩」，即係零花紅，但有誰知道瑞士糖又會好幾多，皆因近期已公佈之第三季業績，大多表面風光。


最新傳聞，有歐資私人銀行可能因為窮途末路而被迫故技重施，竟然再向高端客戶兜售經過包裝而成的高息債券投資產品，話說有ex-iBanker即係退役投資銀行家，先問客戶經理攞張term sheet來參詳參詳始再作決定，誰知唔睇尤自可，睇真嚇到儍。


投行做中介人再推迷債
所謂「高息債券」，性質原來疑似以特別目標工具SPV包裝風險的CDO，即係抵押債務證券，原來投行只係高息借款方──某內地房企與貸款方──即CDO買家的中介人，還在中間賺傭兼過河濕腳食幾厘息，簡而言之，即係迷債。


雖然SPV歸屬投行旗下，但曾幾何時，英資銀行於上一輪金融海嘯水深火熱之際，索性把自己旗下SPV壯士斷臂，至今仍歷歷在目，聽聞有退役iBanker一見張term sheet，就鬧了該客戶經理一餐，罵該投行不知悔改唔知死。


有朋友平時以FX、Trade、Option等合約為bread n butter的投行工作，慶幸自己間行平時非主力搞IPO及M&A，起碼今年B仔就算不及去年，也叫有得分，員工也不需鋌而走險。


胡孟青
作者為獨立股評人

王冠一....Martin Weiss 魏斯 八大預警 ...為銀行倒閉作好準備

王SIR尾段提及..呢個世界係物極必反...最終都會推倒重來....

「佔領華爾街」〔Occupy Wall Street〕從一個小範圍的示威活動蔓延至全球各地，不少人認為，行動是對現時經濟環境，以及對看不見個人未來表達不滿，同時抗議政府對解決貧富懸束手 無策。不少評論對此場運動並不看好，《今日美國》〔USA Today〕上週便批評，運動是由烏合之眾拉雜成軍〔ragtag assortment of college kids, labor unionists, conspiracy theorists and others” hinting they’re a flash-in-the-pan “devoid of remedies〕，又指運動漫無目的〔No mission, no goals, no organization, no agenda, no leaders, and no staying power〕，最終只會作鳥獸散，難有作為。
不過，亦有評論指「佔領華爾街」是阿拉伯之春的延續，有其實際訴求，最終極可能演變成為一場全新的美國革命，不可等閒視之。運動的內在聲音，是抗議美國道 德淪亡〔moral compass is broken〕，政府處處聽命於富人，變成傀儡，而社會由最富裕的1%富人操縱，扼殺了中產往上流動的「美國夢」。今次運動只有1個簡單要求，就是停止民 主被金權蠶食，恢復廉潔的選舉，亦即是一人一票以外，捐獻亦要同等，以重拾真正民主。

華爾街成為被針對的對象，是由於華爾街每年均花費大量金錢游說國會，影響政府施政。更令群眾不滿的是，政府於金融海嘯斥天文數字的公帑救華爾街，銀 行未作出犧牲，卻未有吸取教訓，拒絕改革之餘，業務如常運作，亦不改其貪婪的習性，繼續向高層派發高花紅。其拒絕面對現實及欠缺前瞻性的作風，令更大的危 機潛伏。

基地設於佛羅里達州的獨立評級機構魏斯，創辦人魏斯〔Martin Weiss〕早前提出了七大預警，內容值得細嚼。魏斯的名氣雖未及其他三大評級機構響亮，但由於其評級並非收取客戶費用去評定，故更具說服力。魏斯早於金 融海嘯前已發預警，預告貝爾斯登、雷曼及Washington Mutual倒閉，花旗瀕臨倒閉，房地美亦有解體危機，今年7月15日更率先把美國評級下調至C-，稱降級反映美國經濟惡化、負債沉重、經濟體質虛弱，以 及國際動盪局勢，做法益加彰顯其評級及意見中肯。

魏斯的首個預警，是指希臘很快便會違約，令銀行蒙受重大損失。次個預警則是市場恐慌將蔓延，惟恐其他政府亦會違約，因而拒絕向高負債政府借貸，或要 求更高利息作補償。第3個預警是歐洲將有數家大銀行倒閉，餘波會擴散至美國，當中又以摩通、美銀及花旗最高危。第4個預警是歐盟國家恐有降級潮，德法為救 銀行，評級亦將受損。第5個預警是負債合共高達3.4萬億美元的西班牙和意大利，違約呼聲高唱。西意違約連鎖效應，導致全球債市入冰河期，而德法美英日等 國家亦受影響是第6個預警。第7個預警是違約導致銀行倒閉，把全球經濟推向蕭條的惡性循環將沒完沒了。最後一個附加的預警，是政府不會再救助銀行，為貪婪 吸血劃上終止符。經濟陷入深度衰退，華爾街亦要洗牌重來。

魏斯忠告投資者要把所有或大部份資金調離險地，置放於安全地方，即是不要胡亂買股買債，亦要為銀行倒閉潮作好準備。佔領華爾街示威者的訴求將會得到正視，公平選舉重現，華爾街亦有重建希望。

歐盟峰會正努力草擬化解歐債危機的方案，但大部份市場人士均相信，希臘違約乃時間問題，若防火牆築得不夠堅固，魏斯的七大預警便會弄假成真，令第8個預警自我實現。預警言之有物，難以輕視。

王冠一

梵蒂岡呼籲世界中央銀行，一個世界貨幣

Vatican Calls for World Central Bank, One-World Currency 

 As if national central banks and fiat currencies run by the Illuminati and the banksters do not oppress the world's citizens enough.
The Vatican's true colors shine through- this is merely about consolidating ever more power over the world's masses.

 * Document also calls for "Central World Bank"
* Condemns "idolatry of the market"
* Says reform should start under U.N. auspices

VATICAN CITY, Oct 24 (Reuters) - - The Vatican called on Monday for the establishment of a "global public authority" and a "central world bank" to rule over financial institutions that have become outdated and often ineffective in dealing fairly with crises.
The document from the Vatican's Justice and Peace department should please the "Occupy Wall Street" demonstrators and similar movements around the world who have protested against the economic downturn.
"Towards Reforming the International Financial and Monetary Systems in the Context of a Global Public Authority," was at times very specific, calling, for example, for taxation measures on financial transactions.
"The economic and financial crisis which the world is going through calls everyone, individuals and peoples, to examine in depth the principles and the cultural and moral values at the basis of social coexistence," it said.
Read more:

 

 

牙齒當金使？

畢者推介
?准確押注美國次按爆煲者除了有「沽神」保爾森，還有對沖基金Hayman Capital創辦人巴斯。但與保爾森可一不可再的戰績不同，巴斯利用同一套計量模型，早已預見主權債務危機，押下重注賭希臘違約，並預言兵荒馬亂的時勢即將來臨。詳見B5頁研究部特寫。


在債務危機愈演愈烈的當下，人人對信用及違約風險轉差都怕怕，偏偏銀行卻視之為「收入」入賬，美國五大銀行上季錄得160億美元淨利潤，就有超過八成是此等「幻想利潤」，B16頁「LEX」論荒謬的會計制度。


10月24日，周一。個人並不愛讀克魯明(Paul Krugman)在《紐約時報》的專欄，政治經濟民生，什麼都是共和黨的錯，扣帽子從不手軟，「八股味」隔數條街也能嗅到。然而，諾貝爾評審委員會在2008年金融海嘯期間把經濟學獎頒給他，斷估不是為了赤裸裸地表揚幹預主義；至低限度，克魯明在評審眼中斤?十足，對經濟學有過一番建樹。以其功力，要為一種經濟現象賦予「理論生命」，毫無難度綽綽有餘。


9月初發現克魯明在《紐時》發表的一篇短文，講的是老畢甚感興趣的話題──黃金。入正題前，這位08年諾獎得主先來一段開場白：「在我身處的地方，現在是淩晨四時三十分。我毫無睡意精神奕奕，腦子里浮現的盡是金價……且慢，我聽到你在發牢騷。什麼，克魯明不可以滿腦子黃金嗎？」


從這段獨白可見，克魯明一邊心系黃金，另一邊卻非常在意讀者對他「想金」產生太多不必要的聯想，怕人誤會他忽然戀上這種凱恩斯口中的「蠻荒世界遺物」 ，是以自問自答，意圖跟「金甲蟲」劃清界線。




通縮論者借題發揮 

盎斯金價在千九美元水平乏力再上，近兩個月於千五至千七美元範圍整固【圖1】，有說對沖基金為應付贖回壓力大手沽金，有說黃金牛市開到荼?，從此進入易跌難升局面。然而，不容否認的是，過去十年金價浪高於浪，表現勝於大部分資產，作為凱派健將且一直堅信通縮威脅大於通脹的克魯明，「徹夜難眠」顯是為了替金價長升長有找一個符合其邏輯思維的「原因」。借題發揮？也許。聲東擊西？當然。


克魯明自稱「大大的通縮論者」(a big deflationista)，又說如果你相信「通脹論者」(inflationistas)這些年來提出過的種種警告，那麼閣下縱使不輸幹輸淨，賺少許多總是在所難免。等一等，黃金不是例外嗎？在克魯明看來，將通脹威脅與金價強勁劃上等號，完全捉錯用神；換句話說，金沒買錯，惟買金的原因不對。


這位諾獎得主認為，金價堅挺跟通縮世界非但不存在矛盾，兩者甚至相輔相成。試想像，現在有一批黃金，隨著時間推移，將逐步投放於現實世界的應用，例如牙科儀器，而使用速度──黃金的流量需求(每年以噸計)──將視乎黃金的實質(經通脹調整)價格。


經濟學上有所謂「窒息價格」(choke price)，即天然資源價格升至足以令流量需求(flow demand)降至零的水平，以此而論，人們持有(囤積)可耗盡(exhaustible)的資源，延遲資源在現實世界中的使用，原因只有一個，就是實質價格持續上升。撇除儲存成本，黃金的實質價格必須以相等或高於實質利率的速度上升，投者者和生產商才具備囤積黃金的誘因。


預期回報左右大局
那等於說，在克魯明眼中，通脹預期、貨幣貶值以至避險需求都不是金價上升的主因，黃金牛市的真正「推手」簡單得令人不敢置信，就是其他投資項目的預期回報全皆不濟，持有黃金機會成本大降，投資者以至生產商因此樂於將這種商品囤積起來。


類似的見解，許多人都提出過，只是由諾獎得主口中說出，分外擲地有聲而已。然而，克魯明似乎忽略了一點，就是他根據政府公布的數據以至抗通脹國債(TIPS)等以官方統計為本的指標衡量通脹，大大的忽略了「通脹派」壓根兒就不信任政府發表的通脹數字，否則持有TIPS便能確保回報不受通脹蠶蝕，「通脹派」又何必揸金？


港股大升，恒指收報18771點，較上周五漲746點，市場繼續憧憬歐債危機解決有望之外，匯豐與Markit Economics聯手進行的調查顯示，中國10月份采購經理指數(PMI)初值經季節性調整後達51.5，非但為五個月來的最高水平，且遠勝9月份的49.9。


不過，Markit同日發表的歐羅區PMI卻顯示，歐洲制造業依然處於50盛衰分界線以下，未脫萎縮之局【圖2】。中國出口需求有沒有持久力，還須多觀察一段時間。

王冠一財經專欄：生活質素 每況愈下

美國人嚮往的「美國夢」，是生活一代比一代改善，但過去十年，美國夢卻進入夢醒時份。相比起十年前，今日美國人的生活水平〔standard of living〕不進反退，用以量度生活質素指標之一的「痛苦指數」，更刷新了1983年伊朗革命美國經濟陷入衰退以來的新高。


「痛苦指數」是簡單的算術題，由失業率與通脹率相加而成。指數越高，代表生活水平越低。美國9月份失業率高企於9.1%，消費物價指數年率則由8月的3.8%升上3.9%，令「痛苦指數」高達13.0，較年初時的11.0，高出足足2點。


美國最新公佈的人口統計數字，亦為美國人生活於水深火熱增添證據。全國生活於貧窮線下的比率，由2009年的14.3%升上15.3%，而貧窮率高 於17%的州份，亦由2009年的5個，倍升至12個。生活於貧窮線以下、收入不足貧窮線一半的赤貧比率，亦持續攀升，由2009年的6.3%升至 6.8%。需要接受公共援助〔public assistance〕的人口於短短1年間暴增一成，由300萬上升至330萬，而接受公援的家庭比率亦由2.7%升至2.9%。


統計數字亦顯示，於過去1年，不論是貧窮人口或貧窮率，50州份無一下跌。貧窮率最高的州份為密西西比州，貧窮率高達22.4%，緊隨其後的，是新 墨西哥州的20.4%。貧窮率最低的是新罕布夏州〔New Hampshire〕，比率僅為8.3%，亦是唯一綠得單位數字的州份。


經歷過金融海嘯引起的大衰退〔Great Recession〕後，美國人的生活質素每況愈下，可支配收入〔disposable income〕於2008年春大衰退開始時觸頂，當時人均可支配收入為33,794美元，而2011年次季已跌至32,479美元，即是減少了1315美 元或4%，意味可用於購物消費、外出用膳及看電影的次數大幅減少。事實上，美國人生活水平的惡化速度，亦是1960年開始紀錄以來最快。


美國人平均生活質素下降，主要是收入不進反退。過去3年收入中位數下移了9.8%，不可謂不驚人。此外，樓股皆挫，亦產生財富萎縮效應。更重要的，當然是痛苦指數所顯示的失業率和通脹率雙雙上升。物價升幅凌厲，過去3年便蠶食了多達3.25%的購買力。


深入探討財富萎縮效應的話，數字顯示，美國人自2007年至今，身家合共蒸發了5.5萬億，比率高達8.6%，最大部份自然是物業價值下跌。樓價於 07年至今平均跌幅為22%，蒸發財富達4.7萬億。標普500指數亦較1999年下跌了17%，即使計入其間收取的股息，十年累積回報亦只有3.2%， 可說甚不理想。


由於經濟轉型，不少製造業職位均已一去不復返，工人被迫投身工資較少的服務業。學歷高人士亦無法覓得高薪工作，低學歷人士要脫貧，更是難比登天。「佔領華爾街」行動，便是美國國民對美國夢夢碎，無法再往上爬的大控訴。
王冠一
www.wongsir.com.hk

Stephen Leeb - China Will Send Gold & Silver to the Moon

With gold, silver, commodities and stocks moving sharply to the upside, today King World News interviewed acclaimed money manager Stephen Leeb, Chairman & Chief Investment Officer of Leeb Capital Management.  When asked about the action in commodities, Leeb responded, “Commodity prices, it’s true, are below their all-time high.  But when you step back and look at it from a yearly perspective, the vast majority of commodities are averaging all-time high prices in 2011.”

Stephen Leeb continues:

“As an example the average price for oil, copper, corn, silver and gold will be the highest prices ever on average for 2011.  That is not consistent with a lot of weakness in China.  China, in my opinion, seems to be doing pretty well.  We all know that China had an inflation problem, but it appears they have gotten that under control.

This is the thing that worries me, everyone talks about inflation and China coming apart, Eric, but no one seems to be talking about the fact that China is planning to spend half a trillion a year on new energy.  This includes hydro, wind, nuclear, you name it.

China has well over 50% of the solar industry and no doubt, as part of that strategy, has been accumulating massive amounts of silver and they will continue to do that.  This is one reason that silver is certainly headed to three digits. 

Another thing about China is they have no tax on gold bullion.  There is a tax on jewelry and numismatics but China does not tax gold bullion.  This means gold is already a de-facto currency in China....

“The implication for gold, given that it is becoming currency in China, given the fact that the Chinese government is doing everything they can to encourage their populace to own it, given that it is the only currency that has a chance of appreciating along with materials over the next three to five years, gold is just something that you’ve got to own.    

Gold is certainly going to be part of any future reserve currency basket, that and the Yuan.  I don’t think the dollar is going to make it (in the basket).  China remains an extraordinarily strong competitor.

We’re fighting a war with China and they are armed with bazookas, tanks and everything else and we have a rubber knife, that’s the situation.  Someone in our government has to wake up before it’s too late, if it’s not too late already.

As these commodities run up in price it’s going to be become ever more inflationary.  Commodities are going to become an even larger part of the economy as a whole.  Energy is already about 9% of the US economy.

We are already seeing inflation running close to 4%.  Producer prices, the last print there, was over 6%.  The trend going forward for inflation is going to be dramatically upward.  It’s deflationary for the economy because it’s taking money out of the pocket of the consumer.”