Manipulation of the "Paper Gold" Market

The Value of "Worthless" Paper Gold versus Physical Gold

by Bob Chapman



We have been in and around the gold markets for 53 years and conditions have certainly changed, driven mainly by market manipulation of all markets as a result of the Executive Order, which created the “President’s Working Group on Financial Markets.” Those who doubt that are either on the government payroll one way or the other, or you are just too dumb to understand what is really going on. In spite of these machinations and ignorant naysayers the bull markets in gold and silver are still alive and well. What you are seeing are paper markets and the use of derivatives to effect short-term pricing, especially when negative events are about to occur.

Those events are aided by naked shorting and illegal concentration in both gold and silver and the shares. Mind you, this is being done in a market to control it and in addition government and central banks relish stomping gold and silver into the ground. For years they hid what they were doing. Today their manipulations are in your face. These dramatic forced price falls are fortunately accompanied by heavy buying by China, Russia, India and others.

All the elitists are doing is giving long-term investors an opportunity to purchase both metals at prices far below their real value. Official government inflation figures say gold should be selling at about $2,500 an ounce. Real inflation statistics would have gold selling today at almost $9,000. Such deliberate under pricing is accompanied by financial chaos in Europe and England, high oil prices that reflect the possibility of conflict in the Middle East, the results of $1.4 trillion in loans to 800 European banks, England on the edge of bankruptcy and the continual quantitative easing and things such as Operation Twist by the Federal Reserve. The official government line on statistics is all lies. We see one research report after another pandering to these falsities, which is next to worthless. The professionals and investors continue to use these bogus figures and continue to lose money in the process.

There are few sellers in the physical gold and silver markets. The selling takes place in the paper markets. Demand worldwide for these metals as a store of value has never been stronger. Buyers are countries and flight capital from the Middle East and Asia. The traffic is very intriguing. In China the government promotes gold ownership and has thousands of outlets across the country, as does CIBC. They are called gold savings accounts. Just the opposite is true in the US, UK and Europe, where violation of privacy and freezing or confiscation of assets is possible.

Last year demand for gold rose 20% worldwide and it could top $100 billion in 2012. We are seeing major demand as well for Europe as the euro zone deteriorates without a solution in sight.

We have already seen shortages of 1/5 and ¼ ounce coins from time to time as Europeans gobble them up. These developments are reflections of the ongoing financial problems facing the US, UK and England. Those problems are recognized worldwide and thus, we have massive gold off take by many countries. In tandem all countries are running deficits and it is getting worse not better. The attitude is print money like everyone else is and buy gold at cheap prices. There has to be a lesson to be learned when US dealers go to European wholesalers and get little or no new product. At retailers product offerings are even slimmer.

Gold and silver have been in bull markets since June of 2000 and the trend continues, as nations get deeper in a financial hole, which is reflected in their currencies in the form of higher gold and silver prices. Manipulation of paper gold markets cannot continue on forever. One derivative default and the whole edifice could collapse. Manipulation only allows you to buy cheaper, but once the cartel is out of gold and silver underlying their positions, the game will be over.

The Great Silver Market Myth!

到短期反彈階段

石林

敝欄上期提到金融市場正呈現重大變化，是指債券市場方向出現逆轉，債券價格從高峰下跌，孳息率從低谷回升，這將會對其他金融市場的長遠取向產生重大影響。

最近債券市場繼續向上述情況發展，但並非到一面倒階段，即債券並未出現被大規模拋售，孳息率亦沒有發生急升的行情。上周美國三十年期債券價格跌至135.38的四個多月來低點，剛好險守關鍵的134.85和1年平均線134.47水平，在此作出短期反彈，但估計難以重越140的水平。 

抵達短期支持水平

與此同時，三十年債券孳息率對一年票據孳息率的比率，亦在跌到17.22的一年低點後輕微回彈。敝欄早前曾介紹過，美長債息對短債息的比率曲線是與金價同向並且大致同步。上述三十年債息對一年債息的比率曾在去年9月攀升到39.33的高點，當然金價亦攀升到歷史高位1920元（美元．下同）。

然而，在此後該比率反覆下滑，且呈一浪低於一浪的狀態，故難怪金市在同期亦反覆回落，上周金價回落至1628元後亦反彈，周末最高回揚至1666元，最後以1662.8元收市。

從另一角度看，到目前為止，金市分析的主流意見依然是傾向偏好，其中一個主要理據是歐美當局已施行多輪的量化寬鬆政策，並會繼續施行更多的寬鬆手段，將會造成通貨膨脹，這有利商品和金銀價格。

作為量度商品價格的連續商品指數〈CCI〉，在去年4月升抵691點，其後在此高位反覆下跌，市況變化與銀價變化頗相似。最近該指數又跌破580的短期支持水平，下跌到571.89，至此才反彈。銀價在上周亦回落到31.1元的近期低點，到周末才回彈到32.2元水平。

上文說的市場有長期性轉變，但回落到一個短期性的支持水平階段的現象也體現在金礦股方面。金礦股指數的ETF〈GDX〉上周曾下試至48.42的關鍵支持水平，後亦反彈到49.76收市。

換言之，債券市場、商品市場以至金礦股市場都呈現從高位回落，但未致會發生大規模下跌，短線甚至是有所反彈。

金價疲弱來自期市

我們還應留意到，最近金價疲弱主要是來自COMEX期金市場，而非來自ETF方面。截至上周四，期金市場的未平倉合約量是43.19萬張，為高峰時的三分二水平。截至上周二，大投機者的淨好倉合約是13.14萬張，剛好是高峰時的約一半水平；相反，五隻主要黃金ETFs的持金量日前增加到約1640噸的新高水平，最近數天才輕微回降。這樣的情形與2008年有點相似，金價的走勢是由期貨市場領先，實貨市場是跟隨其後的。

中短期現貨金價若以圖表理論去量度，是有可能下試至1588元，而在1604元附近有一個心理關口性質的支持。但鑑於上文談及的各市場到達一個短期支持階段，加上金市亦實際上在1625元價位稍上得到支持，故可說金市現是作出短期反彈，短期支持甚至是暫時上移至1640元水平。

不過，在1670元會有阻力，更大的回升阻力在1688元至1692元地帶，並相信不易重上1705元。

銀市亦作類似發展，但飄忽程度更大，至上周末，期銀最遠期合約依然比現貨月份合約貼水0.395元，而截至上周四COMEX白銀倉存量又增升到13.58億盎斯，接近2008年時的高峰水平。

銀價是有可能回落到29.7元水平，但短期則在31.1元得到支持，而阻力先後會出現在32.5元和33元水平，更大的阻力在34.3元，並相信不易重上34.7元。滙市爭持依然相當激烈，美元最終取向將很大程度上左右金銀價格。