2014年8月28日星期四

美元升值正在打造史上最沉重枷鎖



美元升值正在打造史上最沉重枷鎖
時寒冰

看過《時寒冰說:未來二十年,經濟大趨勢》的朋友都知道,美元已經步入歷史上最漫長的上漲軌道。國內很多企業卻依然在大肆舉借美元債務。
美元債務沉重的企業,都是在為自己打造枷鎖。但他們樂此不疲。
2014年1-6月,由於人民幣貶值,寶鋼上半年匯兌損失達2.7億元,國內航空公司匯兌損失達27億元(2013年同期匯兌收益則高達41億元)。
如果美元剛剛預熱的上半年就損失這麼多,那麼,在此後美元持續強勁升值的情況下,又將損失多少?還有生存的希望嗎?
美元升值正在打造史上最沉重枷鎖,但很多人依然在爭搶名額,因為他們看到的不是枷鎖,而是金子做成的美艷裝飾品。
有著眾多智囊支撐的有關部門和國內這些大企業依然認為美元升值只是短暫的現象,卻渾然不覺,自己正在帶著沉重的枷鎖走入陰森的墳墓。
在金融戰序幕拉開以後,先覺者生,後知者死,乃是無法逆轉的規律。願他們早日覺醒!
於2014年8月26日


附1(美元指數7月1日—8月26日走勢)

 附2(華爾街見聞報導原文):
投機人民幣升值失敗中國最大上市鋼企淨利大跌
2014年08月26日09:02 來源:華爾街見聞

中國最大上市鋼鐵企業寶鋼股份不僅面臨市場需求疲軟的壓力,今年還遭遇了新挑戰:人民幣貶值。該公司將上半年淨利下滑的主因歸結為匯兌損失。
週一,寶鋼在網上業績會上表示,寶鋼有大量美元融資採取敞口策略,上半年人民幣匯率貶值給公司帶來損失。今後隨著人民幣兌美元匯率雙向波動,以往超低財務費用現象可​​能不會再現。
寶鋼上半年匯兌損失達2.7億元,去年同期則為匯兌收益4.7億元。寶鋼上半年淨利同比下降14.82%至31.54億元;如剔除匯兌損失影響,公司上半年合併利潤總額47.​​4億元,同比上升0.3億元。
據《華爾街日報》報導,淨利損失很大程度上是由於今年上半年人民幣貶值0.9%,以及美國利率的變化,寶鋼股份總經理戴志浩解釋說。他預計,這種壓力可能會持續到下個月。 “我們認為,人民幣走軟可能持續到第三季度,或者到今年年底。但從中長期看,人民幣兌美元應會繼續維持穩定或小幅升值。故公司仍對大部分美元融資採取了敞口策略,但對部分三季度到四季度需還款的近端到期美元融資進行了遠期購匯鎖定。”
人民幣貶值對中國生產者來說是一大利好,因為這將令企業出口產品在外幣結算時更具有價格優勢,而賺取的美元則帶來匯兌收益。但是,人民幣走軟將傷害能源相關企業,比如需要購買原油的航空公司。
華爾街見聞網站曾提及,中國三大國營航空公司南航、國航、東航已發布盈利預警稱,受人民幣貶值拖累,上半年公司業績將較去年同期縮水。航空公司今年上半年匯兌損失達27億元,而去年同期匯兌收益則高達41億元。
人民幣貶值還將令借入美元債務的企業出現損失。路透社報導稱,自2005年起,人民幣兌美元進入升值通道,寶鋼逐步以相對較低利率且匯率風險可控的美元融資替換人民幣融資。公司目前有息負債規模在550億元人民幣以下,其中美元負債比例已經超過70%。
路透社報導還稱,寶鋼財務總監兼董事會秘書朱可炳介紹,公司目前在國內人民幣借款年利率為4.15%至7.21%,而海外借款的融資成本遠低於人民幣借款利率。公司根據年度匯率管理方案,考慮匯率變動後的美元綜合融資成本與國內人民幣融資成本比較,以融資成本利差的70%設定為匯率預警邊界來進行匯率動態風險管控。
戴志浩還指出,公司匯率風險管理的邊界是美元融資利率+匯率波動率<可取得的最低人民幣融資利率,並逐筆進行跟踪。

The Great Wall of Gold

The Eastern Bloc of countries realizes they’re at war with Western ones, not a shooting war, but a financial one.  This is an unconventional war, and an unconventional war requires unconventional tactics.
The “slings and arrows” flying through the air aren’t bullets and bombs, but rather economic sanctions, currency swap agreements, and boycotts.  Whether you realize it or not, this war has been red hot for some time, and will soon come to a head.  There’s actually more to gain or lose here, than most people can wrap their heads around, and the results of this conflict will change the world forever.In partnership with Russia and others,China is stacking so much gold, at such an amazing speed, that the world has never seen its like before. 
There is definitely a multi-leveled strategy here, to be the center of gravity for gold-trading/pricing/storing: not just for Asia, but for the world.The Chinese government is doing all this to fortify its position, by building the “2nd Great Wall” for its own protection: the “Great Wall of Gold”.
Submitted by The Wealth Watchman
Stackers Love Company

Not only is Russia’s perennial gold-buying a conscious effort, rather than a happy accident, but they’re most certainly not alone in their tireless quest for even more of the yellow metal.  If you thought that Russia’s policy of gold accumulation was “over the top” though, then you haven’t seen anything yet.
Very shortly, you will realize that this focus on gold as a key element in strategic policy is being duplicated by many others, specifically in the Eastern world.
Russia has some rather large bedfellows in the gold-stacking game, and it’s one party in particular that we’ll focus on today.
Gold Rush: Made in China
Many are still unaware that the Chinese have been in a gold-buying spree for the last decade or so. It wasn’t until the last several years however, that this thirst for gold was kicked completely into overdrive. They are buying so much gold, in fact, that the world can barely produce enough to satiate just this one country’s demand.
In case there are any doubters out there, I’ll post a few charts to demonstrate what I mean:
SGE_Deliveries

Take a long, focused look at the chart above, as it portends a great deal for the future.  As the old saying goes, “a picture is worth a thousand words”, and this picture is a prime example of the truth of that expression.  There is so much going on in this chart to unpack.
If you doubted whether or not China loves gold, doubt no more.  What you’re witnessing is a modern gold rush in the 21st century.  Chinese citizens are being actively encouraged by their government to accumulate as much physical gold as they possibly can, and it seems 1.3 billion Chinese cannot get enough of it.
In fact, in just 5 short years shown in this graph, Shanghai has delivered so much gold, that it is now about to reach 7,000 metric tonnes of deliveries, in that time.  What that chart doesn’t reveal though, is that another 1,000 tonnes of gold, has previously been delivered from the years 2000-2008.  
Perhaps they should put a sign out front on the Shanghai Exchange.  Ya know, like McDonalds?, Saying:
“Over 257 Million Ounces Served.”
To give you an idea of how much gold that is, the United States(on paper) supposedly has just over 8,000 tons, which is claimed to be in places like Fort Knox, and the New York Fed vaults.  In a mere 5 years, China has imported as much gold into their country, as the largest official gold-holder of the world states in its reserves.  That thought is profound and astounding.
Here’s another excellent chart which sums up the situation nicely, from Mr. Koos Jansen:
Koos Jansen Gold demand
Each year, minus China and Russia(since those countries do not export their gold), the world mines about 2,200 metric tonnes of fresh gold it can supply.  What this means, is thatover the last 5 years, almost 7 of every 10 ounces of gold brought up from the earth, have been bought up by the Mr. and Mrs. Wangs of China.
The Peoples’ Bank of China
Now, of course, this doesn’t include gold scrap supply, but on the other hand we’re not even including official Chinese government demand yet, either.  That’s a whole different matter entirely. The world has barely been able to supply enough gold simply for Chinese citizens to buy, but the People’s Bank of China(PBOC) has been buying with both hands too.
Like Russia however, they’re playing these cards close to the vest.  Closer, actually.  For, you see, not since the spring of 2009 has the PBOC even announced any changes in their gold reserves.  The last time they announced a change in their reserves, the number of tons was bumped upward from around 600 tons, to over 1050!  This represented a percentage increase of over 60%, in one fell swoop.  That one revision, bumped them up from 10th largest gold reserve, to the 6th largest.
China official gold holdings
Crouching Tiger, Hidden Gold Purchases
There are many mainstream commentators who are quick to assure “gold and silverbugs”, that the PBOC isn’t really intent on gold as much as we claim they are.  They say that the previous additions to their gold reserves aren’t really a core strategy that a resurgent China is employing, to say, bolster their currency, the Yuan. They’ve also said that China’s purchases are minimal at best, and that they’re not intent upon obtaining a dominant position in the gold market.
Such people are either ignorant, or liars.
In December of 2009, the “China Youth Daily”, quoted a Chinese State Council Advisor, known only as “Ji”, stating that experts from Beijing and Shanghai had set up a “task force”,for the express purpose of growing China’s gold reserves.
How much gold were they keen on buying at the time?  The recommended figures tossed around were to grow Chinese gold reserves to roughly 6,000 tons in “3 to 5 years”, and to as much as 10,000 tons “in 8 to 10 years”.
It sounded unbelievable at the time, just 5 short years later, this level of Chinese gold demand almost makes those figures sound…conservative, doesn’t it?
Let’s assume though, that the quote was completely accurate.  If they’re on track, where does that put the PBOC’s gold reserves now?
It puts official Chinese gold reserves at over 6,000 tons!
Look back up at the world’s top gold reserves.  At the tippy top, is the U.S. Government’s reserve, which is above 8,000 tons, with Germany a very distant 2nd, with roughly 3,400 tones.  This means that by now, China likely holds the 2nd largest gold reserve in the world, almost doubling the total held by the Germans.  By the way, that’s the same Germany, who has tried to get a measly 300 tonnes of gold returned home from the New York Fed’s vault, and can’t seem to acquire more than a handful of it.
Ya know, because it’s “totally there, and all”.  *wink wink* *nudge nudge*
Not Reserves Alone
Furthermore, if you think that China’s government is content simply accumulating enough gold to build every one of their citizens a deluxe, 24-carat-gold-plated, hamburger grill, you’d be wrong.

Gold grill
Their authorities are not content at all, to simply accumulate a great deal of gold.  In fact, they’re pushing hard to also dominate the world in “all things gold”.  Consider this series of vaults they’re building, for example, many of which are the biggest of their kind in all of Asia.  Or, perhaps the fact that the Shanghai Free Trade Zone(FTZ) will also soon launch their gold contracts, both physical spot and derivative, to compliment the already bustling Shanghai Gold-trading infrastructure.

No, they don’t simply want gold, they want something else which they currently don’t have:  gold pricing power.  As weird as it may seem, though most of the physical gold deliveries now happen in, and around, China, it is still the banks in London and New York City, which control its pricing, because they still dominate the derivative trading scene. What’s more, gold’s pricing is done by these banks in U.S. Dollars, and Great British Pounds. 

That will soon change. Chinese authorities have announced they’re keen to launch both physical and derivative gold contracts, which are denominated and settled in Chinese Yuan(or Renminbi). Shield brothers, the implications of everything we’ve just covered are vast, and are relevant to your everyday lives.
Conclusion
In partnership with Russia and others, China is stacking so much gold, at such an amazing speed, that the world has never seen its like before.  There is definitely a multi-leveled strategy here, to be the center of gravity for gold-trading/pricing/storing: not just for Asia, but for the world.
If you have eyes to see, then you must realize right now:
The Chinese government is doing all this to fortify its position, by building the “2nd Great Wall” for its own protection: the “Great Wall of Gold”.
“Um, what?”, you may be thinking. “You mean their aim is to build a wall on its borders, made entirely out of gold bricks?  That’s stupid. The Mongolians haven’t been a military threat for centuries!”
No, I don’t mean that at all.  I mean that the Eastern Bloc of countries realizes they’re at war with Western ones, not a shooting war, but a financial one.  This is an unconventional war, and an unconventional war requires unconventional tactics.
The “slings and arrows” flying through the air aren’t bullets and bombs, but rather economic sanctions, currency swap agreements, and boycotts.  Whether you realize it or not, this war has been red hot for some time, and will soon come to a head.  There’s actually more to gain or lose here, than most people can wrap their heads around, and the results of this conflict will change the world forever.

麦嘉华:欧洲央行即将加入印钞 金银价格将上涨


末日博士麦嘉华(Marc Faber)认为,金融市场将出现更多波动,而黄金和白银价格则会上升。

目前来看,市场预期美联储将会正常化货币政策,而相对的,欧洲央行和日本央行则可能实行宽松政策。

麦嘉华认为:“这是完全可能的,说到底,所有央行都是印钞机。”

对于供应有限并且一直被用来和黄金比较的比特币,麦嘉华说:“这是一个很好的创新,也是一个有光明前景的货币。但它会出现竞争对手。”麦嘉华称,如果自己要存储自己的财富,那么不会存到能被复制的东西中去,会选择黄金、白银或者铂金。

麦嘉华称,对于实物黄金用来保值,可以有很多存储的金库选择,而比特币这样存在于互联网的则不同,存于金库的实物贵金属更安全。

30%的跌幅对黄金有着重要的意义 底部或已不远


通过黄金的历史走势,结合1年及3年的累计表现,我们发现当出现累计1年或者累计3年跌幅达到30%甚至超过之后,往往是黄金的见底信号。

点击查看大图

图中蓝线代表黄金过去一年累计涨跌幅;红线代表过去三年累计涨跌幅

如图所示,蓝线历史上有3次触及图中灰色地带,即累计跌幅超过30%:

① 1976年

② 1980-1982

③ 2013年

结果表明①随后就出现了反转并大涨,②虽然没有反转大涨,但其价格离真正的底部也不远了。

如图所示,红线历史上有4次触及灰色地带即累计跌幅超过30%:

1982-1983

②1985年

③1999年

④2014年

结果表明①随后出现了继续下跌,但跌幅不大,在大的周期中仍处于底部区域;②则经过了小幅反弹后有所回落,总体上也处于大的周期中的底部区域;③则出现了反转,并大幅上涨。

所以不管是累计3年还是累计1年,黄金的跌幅只要超过30%,就代表着离底部,甚至离反转不远了。

但是,这里需要强调一点,时间成本也是很重要的,价格在底部区域不一定就代表着马上会涨,长时间的底部区域的震荡也会损耗你的资金和时间。

所以从这角度来说,投资者还应结合短中长期的节奏来购买或抛出黄金,否则即便你买到了底部区域的黄金,也未必拿的住。