英國《金融時報》引述消息人士指，美國商品期貨交易委員會在2008年9月、就白銀期貨的買賣或存在失當行為的調查，或需要放棄。
報道指，放棄主要是因為監管機構在4年時間，仍無法取得足夠的證據去支持進行法律訟訴。當局當年是因為收到投訴，認為一群貴金屬的投資者存在價格操控。
在2010年，商品期貨交易委員會的專員Bart Chilton曾公開表示，相信當中存在欺詐行為，迂迴地調控銀價。
不過，報道指，在聽取兩名外部顧問的意見後，當中包括發現部分不規範的交易日子，需要更多的分析，委員會並未能確立訟訴。
2012年8月6日星期一
Libor May Be Manipulated, But Silver Is Not, CFTC To Conclude
http://www.zerohedge.com/news
In what may be the most amusing news of the day, according to the FT the CFTC will shortly drop its 4 year old investigation into silver manipulation, "after US regulators failed to find enough evidence to support a legal case, according to three people familiar with the situation." How about evidence to support an "illegal" case? Of course, that this is happening after the recent discovery that the world's most pervasive fixed income benchmark was manipulated for years, if not decades, can only be reason for laughter and wonder if the CFTC used the same assiduous diligence methods in pursuing the alleged perpetrators of precious metal manipulation as it did in letting the fraud at PFG slip through its fingers for two decades. We will probably never know, or at least not until an email mentioning bottles of Bollinger and silver price "fixing", (or "banging the close" for that matter) in the same sentence inexplicably turns up and makes a complete mockery of the CFTC yet again.
From the FT:
Which of course is why Masters' next sentence was the following:
Finally, and tangentially, in the Libor scandal where not even the regulators can mask up years of gross manipulation, we learn that UBS fired dozens of people embroiled in the still evolving Lieborgate scandal, prosecution immunity notwithstanding:
One could almost make this up.
In what may be the most amusing news of the day, according to the FT the CFTC will shortly drop its 4 year old investigation into silver manipulation, "after US regulators failed to find enough evidence to support a legal case, according to three people familiar with the situation." How about evidence to support an "illegal" case? Of course, that this is happening after the recent discovery that the world's most pervasive fixed income benchmark was manipulated for years, if not decades, can only be reason for laughter and wonder if the CFTC used the same assiduous diligence methods in pursuing the alleged perpetrators of precious metal manipulation as it did in letting the fraud at PFG slip through its fingers for two decades. We will probably never know, or at least not until an email mentioning bottles of Bollinger and silver price "fixing", (or "banging the close" for that matter) in the same sentence inexplicably turns up and makes a complete mockery of the CFTC yet again.
From the FT:
The FT continues by referencing the inventor of CDS herself: Blythe Masters:The Commodity Futures Trading Commission first announced that it was investigating “complaints of misconduct in the silver market” in September 2008, following a barrage of allegations of manipulation from a group of precious metals investors.
In 2010, Bart Chilton, a CFTC commissioner, said that he believed there had been “fraudulent efforts” to “deviously control” the silver price.
But after taking advice from two external consultancies, the first of which found irregularities on certain trading dates that it believed deserved more analysis, CFTC staff do not have sufficient evidence to bring a case, according to the people familiar with the situation.
The CFTC has analysed over 100,000 documents and interviewed dozens of witnesses since it began investigating the market in 2008, it said last year. The people familiar with the situation said the evidence included records from JPMorgan.
The conclusion of the investigation will come as a relief to JPMorgan. Although no company or individual was named in the CFTC investigation, the Wall Street bank has suffered a torrent of allegations from silver investors on the blogosphere.
What the FT did not mention is the end of that sentence pronounced in an interview on April 5 with CNBC which goes as follows:Blythe Masters, head of commodities at JPMorgan, in an April interview with CNBC conceded that there had been “a tremendous amount of speculation, particularly in the blogosphere, about this topic”, but maintained that the bank had no large bets on silver prices.
“We have no stake in whether prices rise or decline,” she said. JPMorgan declined to comment on the CFTC investigation.
Of course, the fact that a month later the firm's entire internal $350 billion hedge fund was found to be not only engaging in non-matched book trading, but suffered a humiliating $6 billion loss due to unmatched prop positions, should not influence all those who persist in perpetuating gross lies."We have offsetting positions. We have no stake in whether prices rise or decline. Rather we're running a flat or relatively flat matched book.
Which of course is why Masters' next sentence was the following:
Courtesy of Gary Gensler's CFTC, who recently has managed to build up lots of goodwill courtesy of his masterful handling of both MF Global as well as PFG, we will never know whether she was also lying about this as well."What is commonly out there is that JPMorgan is manipulating the metals market. It's not part of our business model. it would be wrong and we don't do it."
Finally, and tangentially, in the Libor scandal where not even the regulators can mask up years of gross manipulation, we learn that UBS fired dozens of people embroiled in the still evolving Lieborgate scandal, prosecution immunity notwithstanding:
So let's get this straight: bankers, for their own selfish and financial reasons formed cabals and manipulated, with the complicity of central bankers, a market worth $500 trillion notional. But they left the one market which has the embedded systemic risk of impairing the perception of fiat, and the viability of the status quo system, untouched? And this despite JPM's implicit admission of guilt when it reduced it massive silver short position back in December 2010.UBS AG (UBSN) has dismissed about two dozen traders and managers in connection with an investigation of manipulation of the London interbank offered rates, Der Sonntag reported.
The Swiss bank terminated the traders for possible involvement in a fraudulent ring across several banks and the managers for not exercising controls or for boycotting an internal investigation, the newspaper reported today, citing an unidentified person familiar with the proceedings. Dominique Gerster, a spokesman at UBS, declined to comment on the report.
One could almost make this up.
The Bottom is Probably in for Silver
Saturday, August 4, 2012
I think that perhaps the bottom is actually in for, not only the
mining equities (I called that bottom probably in the middle of May or
so and so far I am right, but barely, it looks like we might retest it)
but also, it looks like the metals themselves probably bottomed very
recently.
It is too early to count that because time will tell but I think
that we will actually work our way further up over the next several
months and, by year's end.
I am looking for the silver to probably be in the $35-$40 range and
gold will probably be well up $1750 - $1850 is my best take at this
point in time."
- Source:
Sprott Physical Silver Trust offer underwriters take up additional units
Suggesting institutional confidence in the future of the silver price,
the underwriters in the recent $200 million offering of new units in the
Sprott Physical Silver Trust have taken up $20 million in additional
units.
LONDON (Mineweb) -
The recent fully subscribed $200 million offering of new units by the Sprott Physical Silver Trust has received an additional boost by the offer underwriters - Morgan Stanley and RBC Capital Markets - taking advantage of an option that enables them to buy additional units on their own accounts. The two underwriters have between them taken up1.8 million units, in addition to the 18.1 million units on offer at US$11.15 each, bringing the amount raised by the Trust to a little over $220 million.
As previously noted here, Sprott plans to use the proceeds to purchase, and take delivery of physical silver to the value of the amount raised, which at current silver prices would amount to some 8 million plus ounces of physical metal.
It should be recalled that when Sprott launched the Physical Silver Trust securing 15 million ounces for it took a full three months before delivery of the metal was received and, according to Sprott, some of the delivery had not even been mined when the order was put in.
What impact the purchases of another 8 million ounces of physical metal will do to the market is a little difficult to estimate - but is should be supportive at the very least. Also the fact that two major banking institutions are willing to plough some $20 million into the trust has to suggest a certain confidence in the future of the metal, although perhaps not to the extent of Eric Sprott himself who sees huge things ahead for gold and an even better future for silver.
Sprott Physical Silver Trust, which is based in Toronto, Ontario, invests and holds substantially all of its assets in physical silver bullion. The trust is managed by Sprott Asset Management .
LONDON (Mineweb) -
The recent fully subscribed $200 million offering of new units by the Sprott Physical Silver Trust has received an additional boost by the offer underwriters - Morgan Stanley and RBC Capital Markets - taking advantage of an option that enables them to buy additional units on their own accounts. The two underwriters have between them taken up1.8 million units, in addition to the 18.1 million units on offer at US$11.15 each, bringing the amount raised by the Trust to a little over $220 million.
As previously noted here, Sprott plans to use the proceeds to purchase, and take delivery of physical silver to the value of the amount raised, which at current silver prices would amount to some 8 million plus ounces of physical metal.
It should be recalled that when Sprott launched the Physical Silver Trust securing 15 million ounces for it took a full three months before delivery of the metal was received and, according to Sprott, some of the delivery had not even been mined when the order was put in.
What impact the purchases of another 8 million ounces of physical metal will do to the market is a little difficult to estimate - but is should be supportive at the very least. Also the fact that two major banking institutions are willing to plough some $20 million into the trust has to suggest a certain confidence in the future of the metal, although perhaps not to the extent of Eric Sprott himself who sees huge things ahead for gold and an even better future for silver.
Sprott Physical Silver Trust, which is based in Toronto, Ontario, invests and holds substantially all of its assets in physical silver bullion. The trust is managed by Sprott Asset Management .
CFTC to Drop Silver Investigation
http://www.silverdoctors.com/
At the end of May, the CFTC’s Bart Chilton informed SD that the CFTC’s 4 year silver investigation would likely be concluded by September.
Chilton informed us that the silver investigation would be concluded in the ‘next 2-3 months‘ and that ‘there
has been a lot of action in silver markets for the past several months.
We have a new individual with lots of experience (former silver trader
and regulator who caught manipulation before at FERC). He, and his
staff, have been looking at trades in detail each time some potential
anomaly occurs. There has been more staff hours dedicated to looking at
silver in the past few months than anyone would believe.‘
Apparently all of those new CFTC employees were watching
online porn like their counter-parts at the SEC rather than
investigating silver anomalies, as the FT reports tonight that the CFTC is set to drop their investigation into silver market manipulation ‘after
US regulators failed to find enough evidence to support a legal case,
according to three people familiar with the situation.’
The CFTC’s ‘investigation’ reportedly analyzed over 100,000
documents, and included dozens of interviews of traders, and
specifically focused on JP Morgan.
If silver is trading in a freely traded market, just why we
might ask did it take 4 years and 100,000 documents to determine this?
Does anyone really think for one moment a government
regulatory would devote 4 years of efforts to investigate a truly
un-manipulated market?
While laughable and a disgrace to the CFTC, the decision comes as no surprise to us or likely any of our readers.
We have long stated that the purpose of gold and silver
manipulation of the interest rate swap derivatives complex, and the
manipulation will only end when free market forces cause a shortage in
the metal, and the entire multi-decade price suppression blows up in the
cartel’s faces like an EMP at 50,000 ft.
兩股力量未分高下
石林
對天氣和颱風的預測現已可以做得相當準確，但對金融市場變化的預測仍難做得好，上周金銀兩市以及相關市場的變化就頗為出乎一般估計之外。
市場人士在上周早就嚴陣以待歐、美、英三大央行的議息決議和新的貨幣政策，亦密切關注美國最新就業數據。一般認為三大央行或有一些新刺激措施，會在金融市場掀起較大的風浪，而美國就業數據亦會引起較小的漣漪，但事態演變並不與這些估計相吻合。
首先歐洲央行的息率和政策幾乎沒有新變化，金價從預先期望而攀升到的1628.0元（美元．下同）高位迅速回落，銀價亦從28.37元高位往回跌。其後美國聯儲局再一次沒有提及QE3，但市場並無出現大拋售，金價只進一步回落至1583.4元，銀價回跌亦止步於26.95元。
一種上了癮的習慣
而周五公布的美國上月非農業新增職位16.3萬份遠勝於預期，市場竟未因此可減輕QE的迫切性而失望，反而作出正面反應。金價重上至1606.8元，並以1603.6元收市，銀價亦重返至27.90元，並以27.80元收市。即是說，上周金價下跌了20元，銀價則微跌了0.1元。
一直以來，很多投資者每當金融市場陷於低迷時，都期望當局推出新的寬鬆政策加以打救。受周圍環境感染，這種期望逐漸變成一種上了癮的習慣，再不進行任何理性的思考。其實當局推出刺激政策目的是為了支持整體經濟，並非是為打救某個金融市場的價格，且在推出之前有多方考慮。
上周歐洲央行官員已講得很清楚，中央銀行能起到的作用是有限的，有些工作要靠政府來做。此外，不少人對貝南奇近期對QE3的事隻字不提感到很不理解。其實只要看看聯儲局今年第二季貨幣供應流速數據，就可以明白一些道理，該季[M2]流速進一步跌至1.575的有紀錄以來的新低，[M1]流速也跌至6.924的十多年低位。
換言之，新增的貨幣供應量流進可創造GDP增長的經濟體系的比率愈來愈小。當局應知道，推新的QE對經濟增長的刺激作用只會愈來愈小，但後遺症相當大，相信這是他們不敢隨便推行的原因。
然而，俗語說「希望在明天」，市場轉期望到下個月應有新的寬鬆政策推出，這又支持了金銀價格從偏低位再度回升。事態的演變交由現實去檢驗好了。
在技術走勢角度，上周金市變化也略出教科書所說。金價升破圖表自今年4月以來所形成的敏感三角形上沿阻力1610元，且升越鄰近前高點1625元，但竟然只能再升至1630元的下沿，距敝欄上期指的1633元至1641元目標地帶尚有一段小距離。
更奇怪的是，金價其後又回落到上述三角形裏面，周末收市卻返回到該三角形的上沿，故上周是一個失效的突破。
現在我們宜更關注經濟收縮力和政策再膨脹力，這兩股力量較量的進一步演變。短期而言，則關注美元從近日高位調整，與金市內部能量進一步縮減（未平倉合約量降至2009年8月的低水平）的正負影響。
金銀維持上落市
因此，預期金價稍後一段時間仍會在上以1633元至1641元為阻力地帶、下以1563元至1569元為支持地帶之間上落，短期支持及阻力則分別為1584元和1625元。
銀價諒在26.6元至28.5元繼續上落，短期支持則上移至26.95元及27.1元水平；而29.1元是中短期的重大阻力，29.9元更是一段時間難以重越的水平。天氣預測比金融市場預測來得容易，前者屬於自然科學，後者是屬於社會科學。
對天氣和颱風的預測現已可以做得相當準確，但對金融市場變化的預測仍難做得好，上周金銀兩市以及相關市場的變化就頗為出乎一般估計之外。
市場人士在上周早就嚴陣以待歐、美、英三大央行的議息決議和新的貨幣政策，亦密切關注美國最新就業數據。一般認為三大央行或有一些新刺激措施，會在金融市場掀起較大的風浪，而美國就業數據亦會引起較小的漣漪，但事態演變並不與這些估計相吻合。
首先歐洲央行的息率和政策幾乎沒有新變化，金價從預先期望而攀升到的1628.0元（美元．下同）高位迅速回落，銀價亦從28.37元高位往回跌。其後美國聯儲局再一次沒有提及QE3，但市場並無出現大拋售，金價只進一步回落至1583.4元，銀價回跌亦止步於26.95元。
一種上了癮的習慣
而周五公布的美國上月非農業新增職位16.3萬份遠勝於預期，市場竟未因此可減輕QE的迫切性而失望，反而作出正面反應。金價重上至1606.8元，並以1603.6元收市，銀價亦重返至27.90元，並以27.80元收市。即是說，上周金價下跌了20元，銀價則微跌了0.1元。
一直以來，很多投資者每當金融市場陷於低迷時，都期望當局推出新的寬鬆政策加以打救。受周圍環境感染，這種期望逐漸變成一種上了癮的習慣，再不進行任何理性的思考。其實當局推出刺激政策目的是為了支持整體經濟，並非是為打救某個金融市場的價格，且在推出之前有多方考慮。
上周歐洲央行官員已講得很清楚，中央銀行能起到的作用是有限的，有些工作要靠政府來做。此外，不少人對貝南奇近期對QE3的事隻字不提感到很不理解。其實只要看看聯儲局今年第二季貨幣供應流速數據，就可以明白一些道理，該季[M2]流速進一步跌至1.575的有紀錄以來的新低，[M1]流速也跌至6.924的十多年低位。
換言之，新增的貨幣供應量流進可創造GDP增長的經濟體系的比率愈來愈小。當局應知道，推新的QE對經濟增長的刺激作用只會愈來愈小，但後遺症相當大，相信這是他們不敢隨便推行的原因。
然而，俗語說「希望在明天」，市場轉期望到下個月應有新的寬鬆政策推出，這又支持了金銀價格從偏低位再度回升。事態的演變交由現實去檢驗好了。
在技術走勢角度，上周金市變化也略出教科書所說。金價升破圖表自今年4月以來所形成的敏感三角形上沿阻力1610元，且升越鄰近前高點1625元，但竟然只能再升至1630元的下沿，距敝欄上期指的1633元至1641元目標地帶尚有一段小距離。
更奇怪的是，金價其後又回落到上述三角形裏面，周末收市卻返回到該三角形的上沿，故上周是一個失效的突破。
現在我們宜更關注經濟收縮力和政策再膨脹力，這兩股力量較量的進一步演變。短期而言，則關注美元從近日高位調整，與金市內部能量進一步縮減（未平倉合約量降至2009年8月的低水平）的正負影響。
金銀維持上落市
因此，預期金價稍後一段時間仍會在上以1633元至1641元為阻力地帶、下以1563元至1569元為支持地帶之間上落，短期支持及阻力則分別為1584元和1625元。
銀價諒在26.6元至28.5元繼續上落，短期支持則上移至26.95元及27.1元水平；而29.1元是中短期的重大阻力，29.9元更是一段時間難以重越的水平。天氣預測比金融市場預測來得容易，前者屬於自然科學，後者是屬於社會科學。
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