2012年1月4日星期三

白銀今年跑贏油金

 http://orientaldaily.on.cc

首先,回顧過去風風雨雨的二○一一年,無論是股市、匯市,抑或商品市場,原來是雷聲大、雨點小,結果總是教人失望或虧損的居多。
金價曾經被多家大行及專家吹捧得天上有地下無,謂甚麼避險需求,替代貨幣角色抬頭,會升上2,500甚或3,000美元水平;確實 歐債美債,阿拉伯之春,及以色列與伊朗等地緣亂局頻生,美國歷史上首次遭剝奪了三條A最佳評級,又有俄羅斯及南韓較大手購入黃金加入外匯儲備。可是金價自 去年九月份起,總是跌得急而升得少,結果去年升幅不足一成,相信賠在金市的投資者,會較股市輸得不明不白。

現今不再是抱着黃金走難的年代,黃金更不能靠以果腹維生,也沒有如物業般有租可收,亦沒有如債券或存款有利息可取的功能,實在是價 格嚴重高於其價值的資產之最。二○一二年第一個予以投資者最大的驚喜,莫過於金價大跌!依筆者看,除了「金本位」貨幣政策復活,否則金價難有起色。金價極 可能於未來兩個月內,跌破1,300美元關口,持有長倉的當然是驚,但準備嫁娶買金器的自然是喜。

慎防美國舞弄油價

二○一二年筆者推介的是白銀,倘若不是內地去年投機太陽能電池板過度,今年歐美衰退在即,白銀價格應該可以翻一番。以全球白銀 產量需求及儲備消耗推測,未來三年之內,相信白銀價格可以創歷史新高達75美元水平!別以為銀價翻兩倍,金價便可見2,500美元或以上。在未來中長線以 環保能源及新電子科技產品盛行的年代,白銀需求增長將大大超越黃金,黃金兌白銀比率,將由現時五十多倍,回落至三十倍或更低水平。

其次是國際石油價格,將繼續高走而難以回落。去年北非中東亂局,令倫敦布蘭特期油整年高於紐約期油,但真正原因,實在是全球原油需求基準,其實大都與布蘭特相關。相反,紐約期油只是美國人的玩意而已。不信的話,閣下大可訪問中國三大石油企業老總。
加上,美國畸形的單向輸油管現象,已於上季扭轉,紐約油價本年將追番布蘭特。但最關鍵之處,在於美國的氣油價格乃全球最便宜,美國會人為舞高油價,令歐亞受害多於其本土,以減輕其衰退禍害。小心華府下毒手,乃本年需注意之首!

廣發期貨副總經理丁世民(作者為註冊持牌人士)

PS:
黃金 1920/白銀 49,金銀比先係39

筆者預期金銀比回到30幾...如銀價3年見US$75,

金價一定飛升...但作者講到"別以為銀價翻兩倍,金價便可見2,500美元或以上。"

作者意思係 金價只能去到2500咁上下,銀價75,

咁個金銀比,就會去到30幾啦,

有無咁著數呀...

John Embry - Gold Will Not Trade Below $1,500 Ever Again

 kingworldnews.com/

With gold trading $40 higher, silver up nearly $2, crude oil rising $4.25 a barrel and mining shares on the move, today King World News interviewed John Embry, Chief Investment Strategist of the $10 billion strong Sprott Asset Management to get his take on where he sees gold, silver, crude oil and the mining shares headed from here.  When asked about the action in gold and silver, Embry said, “I do think there is a strong probability that the end of 2011 marked the bottom for gold and silver and that may be the lows that will ever be seen.  That’s a strong statement, but the reality is gold and silver may never trade lower than that again.

John Embry continues:



“When gold broke through $1,000, I said it would never trade below $1,000 again and it hasn’t.  I now think that, unless we have a complete and total financial collapse in the world, I would be surprised if gold ever traded below $1,500 ever again.



It’s the beginning of the new year and there seems to be a burst of optimism in the air and it’s being reflected in markets.  Virtually everything is trading higher today.  Things will shake themselves out over the next few months and I continue to think that, by far, the safest place to be is in the precious metals.  Gold and silver are on the move today and certainly the metals looked sold out to end 2011.  Everybody that could sell did sell. 



I had an amazing conversation this morning with a long-time friend of mine, who’s always been gold friendly, and he said, ‘I’ve been reading a lot on the weekend and I got the impression gold is going to be weak in the next few months.’  He asked, ‘Should I sell half of my gold position with the idea of buying it back in the third quarter?’ 



I said, ‘Are you out of your mind?  I don’t know what you were reading, but I would be very surprised, unless the whole world melts down, if gold would be weak at all in the next six months.  In fact I would say it’s going to go up $400 or $500 an ounce in the next six months.’  But that’s the kind of sentiment that’s out there and this was from a guy who has been a player in gold for years.


I really do believe that when you get the best and brightest this discouraged, and they can’t see through the gloom, you’ve probably bottomed....

When asked about Rick Rule’s comments, earlier today on KWN, where he said some junior explorers would go 50 to 100 times higher on big discoveries, Embry responded, “I admire Rick’s expertise in the junior sector, he’s one of the best in the world on the subject, he’s proven it through the years and he’s very right.  Where you make your major score is where you get involved with a good management team, in a junior, that’s got a really good prospective play.  If these people hit, it’s the creation of instant wealth. 



One minute you have a company with almost no value, except they have cash in the till and smart guys running it, and suddenly they hit a big ore body that can be worth billions, almost overnight.  This can be one of the great ways to riches.”



When asked about silver specifically, Embry stated, “I think the smash in paper has made the physical silver market that much tighter.  I’m a huge believer in the gold/silver ratio dropping significantly as we move through this bull market. 



I think the next leg up in the gold price will be accompanied by a falling gold/silver ratio to a level of 10/1 or 15/1.  That just means the silver price will run three times faster than the gold price.  The potential in silver is enormous and people are discouraged because of the smash the cartel laid on it.  I wouldn’t be, I think it’s a great time to buy physical silver.”

Embry also had this to say about surging crude prices:  “Crude oil is probably the most interesting commodity out there in the sense that if you looked at it strictly from an economic perspective, given what is happening with the world economies slowing, you could make a case for much lower prices.  But the chart right now is breaking out to the upside, which would suggest the geopolitical considerations are coming to the fore.  Under a bad geopolitical outcome, the crude price could easily rise to $150 to $200.

The Straits of Hormuz could be blocked and an altercation between Iran and Western countries and Israel might take place.  So, I think this thing is fraught with peril and put it this way, if I had to be either long or short of crude oil, I would be long because I believe the geopolitical considerations are going to outweigh the economic ones, at least for the time being.”

2012年黃金會漲嗎?



由於歐元區經濟出現好轉,美元走弱支撐國際黃金期貨價格12月20日大幅反彈,紐約商交所黃金期貨2月合約收盤價重新攀上每盎司1600美元,收於1617.6美元,漲1.3%。

回顧2011年前9個月,黃金出色演繹了牛市,不斷刷新歷史最高價格。 9月6日,倫敦金價創下每盎司1920.38美元的歷史最高價。
分階段來看,年初黃金上攻之勢,受中東危機與日本核危機觸發,市場避險情緒升溫,金價穩步上行,屢創新高。不過,由於全球通脹形勢日益嚴重,美國再度量化寬鬆聲音減弱,日元不斷回流日本,新興國家也開始收緊貨幣,5至6月白銀價格見頂,金價也出現了調整。
在評級機構連續出擊下,歐債危機情況惡化,債務問題從希臘等國蔓延至歐元區核心國家。與此同時,美國債務上限問題突襲市場,經濟二次衰退憂慮漸起,黃金避險功能空前發揮,成為市場一枝獨秀,金價漲速加快,並在9月創出年內最高價位。
然而盛極則衰,進入10月,市場漸漸穩定,歐元區開始重視歐債危機,加快治理債務危機進程,美國修改債務上限,美元開始回升,黃金出現大幅回調。 11至12月歐元區多個國家國債收益率飆升,二級市場融資困難,銀行間流動性危機爆發,全球出現美元流動性缺失,美元大量回流美國,金價大幅下挫。
“縱然第四季度金價下跌,但截至目前,倫敦金價格在本年度上漲幅度依然在15%左右。”在一些機構看來,金價下跌並不意味著黃金走勢的逆轉。
北京中期期貨指出,黃金避險功能失效源自此前市場投機過度。 2011年黃金也出現過投機資金的過度炒作,在高位獲利了結,令國際金價失去了合理估值範圍,短時間暴漲後,金價投資回歸理性。在2011年9月以後,國際金價波動加劇,一味追高的操作思路被改變,黃金避險屬性替代投資功能重新回歸。
北京中期期貨認為,2011年促使黃金上漲的因素有望在2012年繼續發揮作用,這將支撐國際金價震盪上行。如通脹壓力依然較大、避險情緒高漲,各主要經濟體央行黃金儲備購買的結構性轉變,經濟增長放緩和金融市場混亂突出黃金對央行儲備的穩定作用等。這些都是長期因素,在2012年不會發生根本性轉變。
此外,歐洲債務危機進一步擴散是國際金價快速拉升的主要原因。孫永剛指出:“未來,黃金的實物需求值得期待。”從2011年第三季度數據來看,歐洲金條及金幣購買量增逾100%,至118.1噸,佔金幣金條總需求的30%,為這兩個品種的最大市場,這也是5個季度以來歐洲金條金幣購買量首次超越中國和印度兩國的總購買量。明年,歐洲債務依然處於不斷深化的階段,即便出現歐洲銀行拋售黃金資產,也無法阻止民間黃金需求的增加。
市場人士指出,美元流動性枯竭打壓了金價,不過多數機構認為,美國的低利率將使美元另覓投資途徑,回歸市場。
高盛認為,在當前美國極低的實際利率水平上,黃金價格將繼續上升。因預計2012年美國經濟增速放緩,所以美元實際收益率將在更長時期維持低位,這支撐更高的金價。高盛預計,未來3個月、6個月、12個月的黃金價格分別為每盎司1785美元、1840美元、1940美元。法國巴黎銀行也預計,2012年黃金平均價格將在每盎司1775美元,2013年為2150美元。
北京中期預測,美元指數2012年將有望震盪上行,底部逐步抬升,明年上半年震盪區間在78點-83點,2012年下半年隨著美國經濟繼續復甦,美元指數將逐步回落到77點-78點區間。
此外,美國經濟的複蘇可能會階段性提振整個市場的風險偏好,從而帶動金價走高。北京中期研究院預計,雖然國際金價最高價在每盎司1900美元之上,在這次大級別調整後,金價短時間內很難再次創出新高,近期金價在1550-1700美元做震盪整理。明年黃金經過充分調整有望打破箱體,再次沖擊前期高點,上方目標可看至1900-2100美元附近。
李寧則指出,從流動性角度來看,目前新一輪的量化寬鬆政策頗有捲土重來之勢,美國仍然維持0-0.25%的極低利率,歐洲央行連續兩個月降息,中國3年來首次降低存准率,發展中國家中巴西、印尼今年下半年也兩次降息,全球流動性寬鬆的預期料將成為金價上行的重要因素,預計黃金在2012年將會再創新高。
金價2011年走勢可謂大起大落,先揚後抑,從一枝獨秀到痛失“避險天堂”美譽,黃金的波動也隨著大宗商品市場一起放大。 2012年,黃金是否能重新散發魅力呢?多數機構認為,黃金還沒有失去魅力,2012黃金牛市將延續。

Race to Debase - 2011 Q4 - Fiat Currencies vs Gold & Silver

Welcome back to the Worldwide Fiat Currency Race to Debase! 
For 2011 gold averaged a positive 14.3% appreciation versus 75 different fiat currencies throughout the world.  
The year's biggest fiat currency loser to gold was the Turkish Lira down 35.3% followed closely by the South African Rand losing 34.0% to gold.  
Every single one of the 75 fiat currencies lost value to gold in 2011.



Base Currency vs. 1 Gold Ounce
1-Jan-2011
31-Dec-2011
% Gold +/- 2011
Afghanistan Afghanis
61,158
75,531
23.5%
Albania Leke
148,940
168,101
12.9%
Algeria Dinars
104,548
115,516
10.5%
Argentina Pesos
5,642
6,725
19.2%
Australia Dollars
1,389
1,531
10.2%
Bahamas Dollars
1,421
1,563
10.0%
Bahrain Dinars
536
589
10.0%
Bangladesh Taka
100,212
127,835
27.6%
Barbados Dollars
2,843
3,126
10.0%
Bermuda Dollars
1,421
1,563
10.0%
Brazil Reais
2,359
2,911
23.4%
Bulgaria Leva
2,081
2,362
13.5%
CFA BEAC Francs
696,322
791,233
13.6%
Canada Dollars
1,418
1,597
12.6%
Chile Pesos
664,883
811,978
22.1%
China Yuan Renminbi
9,369
9,839
5.0%
Colombia Pesos
2,722,077
3,029,385
11.3%
Comptoirs Français Francs
126,675
143,941
13.6%
Base Currency vs. 1 Gold Ounce
1-Jan-2011
31-Dec-2011
% Gold +/- 2011
Costa Rica Colones
715,132
788,922
10.3%
Croatia Kuna
7,844
9,094
15.9%
Czech Republic Koruny
26,558
30,882
16.3%
Denmark Kroner
7,913
8,960
13.2%
Dominican Republic Pesos
52,878
60,181
13.8%
East Caribbean Dollars
3,838
4,221
10.0%
Egypt Pounds
8,252
9,424
14.2%
Euro
1,062
1,206
13.6%
Fiji Dollars
2,632
2,846
8.1%
Hong Kong Dollars
11,049
12,143
9.9%
Hungary Forint
295,818
379,759
28.4%
IMF Special Drawing Rights
923
1,018
10.3%
Iceland Kronur
163,538
191,361
17.0%
India Rupees
63,539
82,941
30.5%
Indonesia Rupiahs
12,793,050
14,177,771
10.8%
Iran Rials
14,645,199
17,390,044
18.7%
Iraq Dinars
1,658,832
1,828,104
10.2%
Israel New Shekels
5,043
5,970
18.4%
Jamaica Dollars
120,397
133,727
11.1%
Base Currency vs. 1 Gold Ounce
1-Jan-2011
31-Dec-2011
% Gold +/- 2011
Japan Yen
115,351
120,542
4.5%
Jordan Dinars
1,006
1,108
10.1%
Kenya Shillings
114,427
132,790
16.0%
Kuwait Dinars
400
435
8.8%
Lebanon Pounds
2,132,175
2,351,020
10.3%
Malaysia Ringgits
4,384
4,954
13.0%
Mauritius Rupees
42,359
45,175
6.6%
Mexico Pesos
17,571
21,802
24.1%
Morocco Dirhams
11,842
13,404
13.2%
New Zealand Dollars
1,821
2,010
10.4%
Norway Kroner
8,273
9,345
13.0%
Oman Rials
547
602
10.0%
Pakistan Rupees
121,690
140,605
15.5%
Peru Nuevos Soles
3,987
4,215
5.7%
Philippines Pesos
62,032
68,466
10.4%
Poland Zlotych
4,209
5,374
27.7%
Qatar Riyals
5,175
5,692
10.0%
Romania New Lei
4,541
5,210
14.7%
Russia Rubles
43,322
50,021
15.5%
Base Currency vs. 1 Gold Ounce
1-Jan-2011
31-Dec-2011
% Gold +/- 2011
Saudi Arabia Riyals
5,331
5,862
10.0%
Singapore Dollars
1,826
2,027
11.0%
South Africa Rand
9,424
12,630
34.0%
South Korea Won
1,592,877
1,810,284
13.6%
Sri Lanka Rupees
157,696
180,279
14.3%
Sudan Pounds
3,551
4,176
17.6%
Sweden Kronor
9,554
10,794
13.0%
Switzerland Francs
1,328
1,467
10.4%
Taiwan New Dollars
41,421
47,324
14.3%
Thailand Baht
42,672
49,310
15.6%
Trinidad and Tobago Dollars
9,012
9,926
10.1%
Tunisia Dinars
1,992
2,339
17.4%
Turkey Lira
2,185
2,957
35.3%
United Arab Emirates Dirhams
5,221
5,741
10.0%
United Kingdom Pounds
911
1,007
10.6%
United States Dollars
1,421
1,563
10.0%
Venezuela Bolivares Fuertes
6,112
6,722
10.0%
Vietnam Dong
27,711,168
32,873,044
18.6%
Zambia Kwacha
6,794,531
7,995,512
17.7%
Silver's 2011 performance was extremely volatile peaking in late April.  Silver's peak and subsequent drop in price mirrored what we witnessed in its 2008 price action when the silver spot price dropped +50% peak to trough intra-year. 
For 2011 silver averaged a loss of 6.8% versus 75 different fiat currencies throughout the world.  The year's biggest fiat currency loser to silver was the Turkish Lira down 10.3% followed closely by the South African Rand losing 9.2% to silver.  
Eight of the 75 fiat currencies we track lost value to silver in 2011.
   


Base Currency vs. 1 Silver Ounce
1-Jan-2011
31-Dec-2011
 % Silver +/- 2011
Afghanistan Afghanis
1,329.80
1,338.46
0.7%
Albania Leke
3,238.49
2,978.86
-8.0%
Algeria Dinars
2,273.25
2,047.02
-10.0%
Argentina Pesos
122.67
119.17
-2.9%
Australia Dollars
30.21
27.14
-10.2%
Bahamas Dollars
30.91
27.70
-10.4%
Bahrain Dinars
11.65
10.44
-10.4%
Bangladesh Taka
2,178.98
2,265.32
4.0%
Barbados Dollars
61.82
55.40
-10.4%
Bermuda Dollars
30.91
27.70
-10.4%
Brazil Reais
51.29
51.59
0.6%
Bulgaria Leva
45.24
41.86
-7.5%
CFA BEAC Francs
15,140.58
14,021.15
-7.4%
Canada Dollars
30.84
28.30
-8.2%
Chile Pesos
14,456.98
14,388.77
-0.5%
China Yuan Renminbi
203.71
174.35
-14.4%
Colombia Pesos
59,187.86
53,682.60
-9.3%
Comptoirs Français Francs
2,754.37
2,550.73
-7.4%
Base Currency vs. 1 Silver Ounce
1-Jan-2011
31-Dec-2011
 % Silver +/- 2011
Costa Rica Colones
15,549.56
13,980.19
-10.1%
Croatia Kuna
170.55
161.16
-5.5%
Czech Republic Koruny
577.46
547.26
-5.2%
Denmark Kroner
172.07
158.78
-7.7%
Dominican Republic Pesos
1,149.76
1,066.45
-7.2%
East Caribbean Dollars
83.45
74.79
-10.4%
Egypt Pounds
179.42
167.00
-6.9%
Euro
23.08
21.38
-7.4%
Fiji Dollars
57.24
50.43
-11.9%
Hong Kong Dollars
240.24
215.18
-10.4%
Hungary Forint
6,432.16
6,729.58
4.6%
IMF Special Drawing Rights
20.07
18.04
-10.1%
Iceland Kronur
3,555.91
3,391.03
-4.6%
India Rupees
1,381.57
1,469.76
6.4%
Indonesia Rupiahs
278,167.50
251,239.00
-9.7%
Iran Rials
318,439.97
308,162.50
-3.2%
Iraq Dinars
36,069.05
32,395.15
-10.2%
Israel New Shekels
109.66
105.80
-3.5%
Jamaica Dollars
2,617.87
2,369.74
-9.5%
Base Currency vs. 1 Silver Ounce
1-Jan-2011
31-Dec-2011
 % Silver +/- 2011
Japan Yen
2,508.14
2,136.09
-14.8%
Jordan Dinars
21.88
19.64
-10.3%
Kenya Shillings
2,488.05
2,353.11
-5.4%
Kuwait Dinars
8.69
7.71
-11.3%
Lebanon Pounds
46,361.25
41,661.54
-10.1%
Malaysia Ringgits
95.33
87.78
-7.9%
Mauritius Rupees
921.04
800.53
-13.1%
Mexico Pesos
382.05
386.35
1.1%
Morocco Dirhams
257.48
237.53
-7.7%
New Zealand Dollars
39.60
35.63
-10.0%
Norway Kroner
179.88
165.60
-7.9%
Oman Rials
11.90
10.66
-10.4%
Pakistan Rupees
2,645.99
2,491.62
-5.8%
Peru Nuevos Soles
86.70
74.69
-13.8%
Philippines Pesos
1,348.80
1,213.26
-10.0%
Poland Zlotych
91.53
95.23
4.0%
Qatar Riyals
112.53
100.87
-10.4%
Romania New Lei
98.74
92.32
-6.5%
Russia Rubles
941.98
886.40
-5.9%
Base Currency vs. 1 Silver Ounce
1-Jan-2011
31-Dec-2011
 % Silver +/- 2011
Saudi Arabia Riyals
115.91
103.88
-10.4%
Singapore Dollars
39.70
35.91
-9.5%
South Africa Rand
204.92
223.82
9.2%
South Korea Won
34,634.94
32,079.37
-7.4%
Sri Lanka Rupees
3,428.88
3,194.66
-6.8%
Sudan Pounds
77.21
74.00
-4.2%
Sweden Kronor
207.74
191.27
-7.9%
Switzerland Francs
28.88
26.00
-10.0%
Taiwan New Dollars
900.64
838.62
-6.9%
Thailand Baht
927.84
873.80
-5.8%
Trinidad and Tobago Dollars
195.95
175.89
-10.2%
Tunisia Dinars
43.32
41.45
-4.3%
Turkey Lira
47.52
52.41
10.3%
United Arab Emirates Dirhams
113.53
101.74
-10.4%
United Kingdom Pounds
19.80
17.84
-9.9%
United States Dollars
30.91
27.70
-10.4%
Venezuela Bolivares Fuertes
132.90
119.11
-10.4%
Vietnam Dong
602,541.71
582,531.00
-3.3%
Zambia Kwacha
147,737.85
141,685.50
-4.1%