2013年4月3日星期三

Russia & China Loot Western Gold While JP Morgan Sells Silver

 Jim Sinclair講出,要打黃金市場,先要打白銀,原因白銀市場佔有層面廣,有心人要銀價下跌的負面情緒帶到黃金身上


Today Jim Sinclair told King World News that Russia and China are looting Western gold while JP Morgan sells silver.  He also said that all of this chaos is taking place as central planners conceal serious financial problems from the general public.  Below is what Sinclair, who was once called on by former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker to assist during a Wall Street crisis, had to say.
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Sinclair: “If you watch the market throughout the night and into the morning, as we have to, there is only one conclusion you can come to, and that conclusion is that this takedown has been totally orchestrated.  It has been executed using tremendous strategy, and it was perfectly timed.

This has involved entities acting in unison for the purpose of affecting price and psychology, while at the same not necessarily selling volume.  This has been a pure operation...


“As an example, gold was at $1,603 on Monday night and very near $1,600 in early US trading on Tuesday.  Gold was then taken down nearly $25 in the normal manner that we have seen in previous operations.

There was nothing happening in any related market which would justify such a move.  This type of operation was very reminiscent of the ‘Hail Mary’ play such as the one just seen in Cyprus.  But the truly disturbing thing we are witnessing at this time is the sheer amount of effort being put into making everything appear just fine. 

A contrarian would have to come to the conclusion that there are some very frightening and serious problems being hidden from the general public.  Regardless, what we have seen in the recent takedown in gold is without any doubt a coordinated operation, and all of this in an effort to make the US dollar look better.”

Eric King:  “Jim, with regards to gold sentiment we now have 45% less bulls than what was seen at the peak in 2011.  Silver has a staggering 53% less bulls than its peak in 2011.  When you see this type of active government intervention in these key markets, with that sentiment as the backdrop, what do you make of it?”

Sinclair:  “From an investment standpoint, fortunes have been made when items have been purchased that are out of public favor.  Meaning items which had the same type of bull/bear comparisons.

But I think what we have to consider here is there are major sovereigns in the gold market.  You have both Russia and China with a very significant interest in terms of accumulating physical gold, or what true wealth still remains in Western central bank vaults.  At the same time you have the West which has a significant interest in depreciating the price of gold.  So you literally have a war going on in the gold market.

The real turn in the gold market, which I think is not far away, will occur when either Russia, China, or both, feel that the West is depreciating gold to a point where they would simply take everything in the market that was for sale.  I no longer believe the gold market is a group of wealthy players, but, instead, it is now very much a political game, and the various players have as much money as they want to create for this game.

So it’s going to be very interesting to see if the Russians, having seen what has taken place in Cyprus, will take abuse in the gold market and back away quietly.  I think it’s going to be determined this week whether China and Russia are in accord with the depreciation of the price of gold, which has clearly been an operation from $1,900 down.  This has been a strategized operation, and something that if we were to engage in with a common stock, we would be arrested.”

Eric King:  “Jim, I wanted to ask you about silver and what is happening in that market?”

Sinclair:  “You can clearly see that from the day the JP Morgan suit on silver manipulation was basically thrown out for the second time, the silver market has seen an explosion of selling and it has been trading very heavy. 

So the volume of selling has risen constantly since that plaintiffs against JP Morgan attempted to have the suit reinstated, but it was thrown out for a second time.  People have to remember it is easier to push the gold market around if you can make silver look weak.  But I still believe we have seen the lows already in the silver market.

People that watch the gold and silver markets have to understand that silver is more widely owned than gold.  So you can create a significant amount of negative public sentiment more so in the silver market by making it look weak, rather than in the gold market.

The gold market is like a joust.  It’s like the knights of old, fighting.  Yesterday, three banks downgraded gold.  This went along with the push to the downside.  So, again, the takedown was totally coordinated.  Yes, these operations are completely illegal and totally unethical, but that doesn’t matter in what has now become our brave new world.”

白銀跌至7個月低點進入熊市


週三白銀期貨價格跌破每盎司27美元,銀價已經從去年10月4日的高點下降了20%以上,這意味著該貴金屬進入了熊市


銀價在經歷了年初的劇烈下跌後在2月份曾企穩,維持在每盎司28.25-29.50美元之間。

美國3月份ISM製造業PMI低於預期,表明對白銀的工業需求可能將放緩。本週一白銀價格大幅下跌1.3%跌至27.94美元,週二又跌去1.7%交易在27.47美元附近。截止北京時間週三13:20分交易在27.03美元附近,此前一度跌破27美元關口。


銀價目前跌至7個月低點,從2012年10月4日的35.10美元的高點下跌了22%。一般認為當某種產品的價格從之前的一個顯著峰值下跌20%,即意味著它進入熊市。


CMC Markets高級市場分析師Colin Cieszynski認為,本週白銀的下跌反映是“技術破位”,以及“新一輪下跌的開始”。


法國興業銀行週二發布報告看空金價,也打壓了貴金屬市場的情緒。該行報告指出,在人們對美國經濟看法改善的影響下,利率上升的預期升溫,或在黃金市場形成一場長期熊市的“完美風暴”。


法興銀行報告稱相關ETF出現大量贖回,投資者正愈發傾向於做空,預計2013年黃金均價為每盎司1,500美元,年底時價格料跌至1,375美元。


wallstreetcn.com 

法興:黃金的時代即將終結

法興銀行分析師發布了長達27頁的專題報告稱,隨著美國經濟好轉和美聯儲即將退出QE,黃金的牛市時代即將終結。報告寫道:

    
“隨著美元走強,人們對美國經濟越來越看好,利率上升的預期漸增,這也開啟了一場長期熊市的完美風暴。如今,市場開始大量贖回ETF,投資者越來越傾向於從事做空,這種市場情緒也證實了我們的看法:黃金可能已經進入'最後的歡騰'”。
事實上,市場“大幅看跌”的趨勢主要源自巨大的供給過剩的威脅。這種熊市轉折的跡像在最近的幾個月開始逐步加強。
在這裡,法興指出了兩個數據:

    
1、從今年一月開始,黃金ETF持倉大跌約140噸,2月份更是遭遇史上最大資金流出。

    
2、2月末以來,對沖基金的黃金空倉數量創下12.5年來新高。

從基本面來看,法興稱,市場擔心美聯儲寬鬆的貨幣政策會帶來通貨膨脹,這讓黃金受益頗多。

    
“但是,從2011年末以來,美國的通脹水平就一直很低,如今我們可以看到:第一,經濟形勢的好轉很可能讓美聯儲退出QE;第二,財政懸崖已經走過了最艱難的時候;第三,美元開始走高。在這種背景下,投資者不太可能增加黃金的持倉量。”
這裡涉及到一個頗受爭議的地方,即美聯儲是否會採取退出策略。法興寫道:

    
“如下圖所示,我們的基本預測是,在9月份之前,美聯儲的資產負債表將持續以每月850億美元的速度擴張,然後將逐步減少至每月650億美元,並在年末的時候完全終止。”

法興描繪了導致黃金熊市的兩種可能原因:

    
1、失業率下降,美聯儲減少資產購買。

    
2、通脹預期急劇增加,美聯儲在沒準備好的情形下削減資產購買。
報告全文充滿了對黃金的悲觀:

    
“我們2013年對金價的平均預期為1500美元/盎司,年末的預期為1375美元/盎司。”
這比市場的共識少了許多,市場對年末金價的普遍預期為1750美元/盎司。
最後,附贈法興影響金價的因素分析表:

今日入貨

昨晚白銀期貨市場出現..自09年以來 ..天量的合約成交,


今天銀價 約US$27
見大減價,買入公斤龍幣HK$7454

當時比較利昌500g 每條為$3683 x 2 =$7366


Apmex 售賣的90%  Junk Silver Bag ,是spot價加3美元,

 $21557 / 715oz = US$30

市場價和實物價出現分離 現像







SD 剛好有這文章 提到 :

*Update*
I have since been working on updating the BREAK EVEN ANALYSIS using spreadsheets and getting some help from an ex-CFO of a gold mining company plus another person who studies financial reports.

Let me tell you… BREAK EVEN is now above $27-8 for the GROUP of Primary Silver miners if we include ALL COSTS.

By the way… do you all remember this chart??


silverdoctors.com

王冠一 外匯儲備 豈能不多




紐約聯儲銀行近日發表一份題為”Do Industrialized Countries Hold the Right Foreign Exchange Reserves?”

(譯:工業國持有的外匯儲備規模是否適中?)的研究報告,指出一個國家要有效捍衛貨幣匯率,其實未必需要持有太多外匯儲備。論據實在難以讓人信服。 

報 告的研究對象包括美國、歐元區、英國、加拿大、日本、瑞士六大工業經濟體,總結出自從《布列頓森林協定》之後,不少國家開始主動擴張外匯儲備規模,以保障 本身貨幣在國際金融市場上的地位。這種觀念漸漸成為國際大潮流,甚至有國家央行認為,持有愈多外匯儲備,就愈覺得有能力捍衛貨幣匯率,不再擔憂本國貨幣被 有心人狙擊。

研究報告指出:「雖然國際金融與貨幣交易的規模不斷擴大,但工業國的儲備並非一定要同步擴 大」,只單純認為外匯儲備如果太多,持有外匯儲備的「成本」就會大過「效益」,因而提出另類建議;似乎不太明白各國央行爭相持有巨額外匯儲備,主要是因為 環球金融市況益見兇險,惟有外匯儲備可保平安。


研究報告所謂的「成本」太高,其實是指機會成本太高。其中包括外匯儲備資產存在貶值風險。舉例講,瑞士央行早前為壓抑瑞郎升值,購入大量歐元資產,萬一歐元區出事,瑞士央行肯定勁蝕收場。


其次是外匯儲備的資產回報通常偏低。這是由於央行大多傾向持有風險較低的外幣資產(例如國債);雖然加拿大、歐元區、瑞士等央行容許持有較高風險資產,如股票及企業債,但回報高,風險自然亦高。


另一個原因是均衡匯率隨時改變。假設某國貨幣持續升值,理論上該國央行已經持有過多外匯儲備。


針 對以上情況,紐約聯儲銀行的研究報告建議,除了各地央行不應該持有過多外匯儲備之外,不妨考慮加強央行之間的協調,例如昔日聯儲局透過美元掉期 (SWAP)的方式為各國央行提供美元流動性般,這樣各地央行便毋須輕易動用外匯儲備。除此以外,報告甚至建議各地央行可考慮透過調整利率,以配合強貨幣 或弱貨幣政策。


全球各地如此重視外匯儲備的價值,只因為此刻各國仍然(需要)接受美元的儲備貨幣地位;故此,紐約聯儲銀行 專家以為貨幣掉期較外匯儲備效益更大,應該得到各方的體諒。試想想,如果各國央行或商業銀行放棄透過儲備自保,而改為單靠掉期合約支持本國的金融體系,日 後一旦發生對家風險(Counter-Party Risk)事故,誰又會保證願意施以援手?


多年來各地央行不斷增加外匯儲備,只係情非得已。試問誰會願意把一國的金融體系命運,託付於別國的掉期承諾上?就算貨幣地位強如美元,誰又敢擔保美元地位永不動搖?聯儲局的美元流動性承諾永不食言?

普京命令政府官員3個月內關閉海外銀行賬戶

俄羅斯總統普京要求,俄羅斯公務員和政府高官在3個月內必須關閉他們的海外銀行賬戶,並剝離他們的海外資產,否則就將被解僱。
普京周二簽署的總統法令稱,數以千計的俄羅斯公務員7月1日前必須申報他們的收入和財產,並面臨嚴格的審查。普京的幕僚長Sergei Ivanov表示,任何人都不得凌駕法律之上,任何人只要被發現還持有被禁止的資產將立即被解僱。
Ivanov說,普京要求在海外擁有房地產的官員必須做出解釋,他們是如何能夠在海外置產,無法給出合理解釋的也將面臨解僱。
普京的新聞發言人Dmitry Peskov強調,“沒有什麼是不可觸碰的”。
這項法令是普京“去海外化”俄羅斯經濟的最新動作,去年12月他在一項重要政策演講中就提出了這一任務。根據許多政策制定者分析,普京的目的並不只是打擊政治精英階層的腐敗,也讓其政府高官對海外影響更具免疫力。
另據環球網報導:

    
4月1日是俄羅斯政府高級官員遞交個人收入和支出申報表原定的最後期限,俄羅斯總統普京以及總理梅德韋傑夫都已如期申報了2012年的收入狀況。普京此前在“全俄人民陣線”會議上強調,“要用燒紅的鐵燒盡腐敗”,以示反腐決心。作為反腐重要一步,俄羅斯聯邦官員必須每年進行財產申報,所有申報表將被公諸於眾。不過,由於還有相當一部分官員尚未遞交收入與支出申報材料,普京2日簽署命令,將申報最後期限從4月1日推遲至7月1日,並宣布拒絕申報財產者將被解除公職。

    
俄羅斯政府高級官員財產申報製度始於2009年並不斷修訂完善。根據相關法律,俄國家元首、政府首腦、部長、總統辦公廳成員、總統駐各聯邦區全權代表等須依法按時向稅務部門提交自己及配偶、未成年子女的收入、財產和財產性債權債務情況根據今年1月1日生效的《俄羅斯政府法》修正案,除了收入外,政府官員家庭的大額支出首次被納入申報範圍,凡在2012年購買土地、不動產、汽車、有價證券、股份金額超過申報者本人和配偶此前3年收入總和的交易,必須進行申報,並說明資金來源,否則有關部門有權進行調查。今年,俄羅斯政府官員遞交個人收入和支出申報表的最後期限原定於4月1日,所有申報表原本定於4月中旬公佈。


“這是對精英階層的國有化,”前克里姆林宮國內政策主管Konstantin Kostin說,“在很長一段時間內,許多精英人物將俄羅斯視為獵場,他們將自己的財富和生活安置在其他地方, ”他補充道,“一部法律當然不能全部解決這些問題,徹底解決只能依靠政治人物的決心和全社會的共識和團結。”
在去年12月的一年一度國情咨文演講中,普京將這項政策置於演講的核心位置。 “對國家的責任不是靠口號和演講來實現的,而是要讓人們看到政府是透明的。”他隨後表示。