2012年11月14日星期三

Barrick執行長:黃金生產業正面臨礦場發現率下滑的挑戰

全球最大黃金生產商Barrick Gold Corp.(ABX-CA)執行長Jamie Sokalsky表示,即使黃金生產業去(2011)年的探勘支出達到有史以來最高的80億美元規模,黃金發現率仍在向下滑落

Sokalsky今(13)日在香港舉行的1場研討會上說道,去年總共發現3處黃金礦藏地,但沒有任何一處的藏量超過2000盎司。1991年時,發現的黃金礦藏地則有11處。

他並在研討會上指出,保本成本正在上升,亦預估黃金牛市沒有結束的跡象。

由於投資人和央行在全球推出刺激措施提振經濟之際購買了愈來愈多的黃金,該貴金屬價格正準備朝連12年走漲態勢挺進。
巴克萊銀行(Barclays Plc.)(BARC-UK)亦指出,明(2013)年全球黃金產量可能僅成長0.7%,創2008年來最低增速紀錄。

Sokalsky亦在研討會上表示,黃金價格進一步的飆升不一定會將產量刺激出來。

他認為:「就算黃金價格漲到更高水位,我們仍舊面臨到相同挑戰。我覺得就算有所反應,但是有限。」

Sokalsky在昨(12)日接受專訪時亦說:「愈來愈難發現大型礦藏地且若是要將其化作產量的話,至少需要花費比10年前還要多出1倍的時間。我們發現新礦場的速度將趕不上舊礦場關閉的速度。」

巴克萊銀行亦在上周四(8日)出具的報告中指出,明年全球黃金產量可能自今(2012)年估計的2652公噸增加至2672公噸。全球碎金供應量則可能自1671公噸減少至1636公噸,令明年整體供給量自4323公噸降低至4308公噸。

Sokalsky最後表示:「取得礦場開發核准、處理政府及社區事情、環保議題等等,這些所需要花費的時間相當之久,加上興建礦場又得花費人力成本和募集資金。」

Leeb - This Will Be The Most Frightening Period Of My Lifetime


Today acclaimed money manager Stephen Leeb told King World News, “The first piece of data I look at, and I do it around 1AM to 2 AM every morning, is how the Chinese yuan is performing.  Recently the Chinese yuan staged a very dramatic breakout.  It is effectively at all-time highs since China let the yuan semi-float around 20 years ago



Stephen Leeb continues:

“There has been a great deal of political pressure put on China to strengthen the yuan.  The Chinese are responding to their transition to a new leadership.  China’s new leader and leadership should be incredibly strong going forward.  They will prepare the Chinese for the 21st century....


“We know this is going to involve more rounds of infrastructure.  Many people say China has overbuilt.  They say China has too much of everything.  This is just nonsense.  Regardless, China’s buildout is going to require a great deal of steel, copper, and yes, silver.

The Chinese leadership needs to worry about future water, silver, and gold supply needs.  On the flip side, a think tank just reported that China has 17 minerals that the West will need.  So China has a bit of a monopoly on certain critical materials.

But China isn’t just going to need gold, silver, and water.  They will also need oil.  What the IEA is saying is a complete joke.  These were the same people that were saying that Saudi Arabia was going to produce 20 million barrels of oil.  Now they are saying US oil production will be greater than that of Saudi Arabia by 2020.

These are crazy times, but yes, China knows they will need gold, silver and oil.  There is surprisingly little gold left in this world.  There is very little left in the ground.  This is one of the major reasons why you see major mining companies having so much trouble with production, even though gold has been in a 12-year uptrend. 

These major just can’t increase production, and increasing capital costs are hurting them as well.  This is why I believe gold, silver and the junior mining shares are set to rise dramatically.  I think this is especially true for the junior miners because that’s the only place where you can find meaningful supplies of incremental gold.

If you look at the hedge fund Baupost, it has one of the best track records over the past 25 years.  Baupost is a major holder of at least three junior gold mines.  These are mines that may not produce gold for at least 5, 7, or even 8 years. 

But Baupost sees it.  They get it.  So investors should own physical gold, physical silver, and they should also invest in quality shares in this space because these junior gold stocks could go up 30-fold over the next 5 to 8 years.  This will happen as people realize they have to own gold because paper money is becoming more and more worthless.

I would also add that this period in front of us is probably going to be the most frightening period of my lifetime, and I’ve been around, and I can tell you the way for investors to weather this storm is going to be through the gold and silver space.”

“There has been a great deal of political pressure put on China to strengthen the yuan.  The Chinese are responding to their transition to a new leadership.  China’s new leader and leadership should be incredibly strong going forward.  They will prepare the Chinese for the 21st century....

 

t;/frame>Stephen Leeb continues:


戰火毀經濟 窮家庭變賣金飾過活

【明報專訊】敘利亞境內戰火蔓延,建築坍壞,又面對歐美制裁,令經濟大受重創。不少國民山窮水盡下被迫變賣珠寶首飾養家;財力尚有餘裕的中上階層則紛紛買入黃金保值,令國內金價急升。
「阿拉伯之春」捲至敘利亞已有近20個月,多地飽受戰火蹂躪影響民生,一名大馬士革商會成員表示,這段時間至少有三成中小企被迫倒閉,令國內兩成半勞動人口打爛飯碗。不少人積蓄耗盡,被迫變賣珠寶首飾維持生活。珠寶商麥達里(Bassil Mdali)慨嘆收入不如前:「由於全球黃金價格不斷上升,以及敘利亞鎊轉弱(兌美元幣值跌了一半),過去兩年人們對珠寶的需求大幅下降。」

富戶搶購黃金保值

窮人出賣首飾箱,富人則買黃金避險。麥達里稱:「人們寧願購買黃金白銀,不肯買珠寶首飾。他們對本國貨幣失去信心,每當有外國制裁措施出台,就會衝去買金,覺得可以保值。」一名金匠指出,人們「趨金若鶩」,除希望抗衡通脹,也考慮到萬一將來要逃難,黃金更易攜帶,結果就是敘利亞國內金價屢創新高。

(法新社)

美 國 逾 十 萬 人 聯 署 要 求 脫 離 聯 邦

Dissolution of united state?

美 國 逾 十 萬 人 聯 署 要 求 脫 離 聯 邦

2012-11-13 HKT 11:16
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勝 出 的 州 份 。
單 在 得 州 連 署 人 數 超 過 2.5 萬 , 奧 巴 馬 政 府 可 能 要 作 出 回
應 。

按 照 規 定 , 聯 署 人 數 達 到 2 萬 5 千 人 時 , 白 宮 需 要 作 出 回
應 。

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入 衰 退 , 考 慮 到 得 州 一 直 保 持 平 衡 預 算 , 而 且 是 全 球 第
15 大 經 濟 體 , 得 州 脫 離 美 國 聯 邦 完 全 可 行 , 以 保 障 得 州
的 居 民 。
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