2012年3月25日星期日

Asia’s golden future

http://www.goldmoney.com


Asia’s golden future

2012-MAR-24

Chinese Gold Panda coin For most of the last century the default currency for international settlements has been the US dollar. This has given America ultimate power over international trade. In recent months, the US wielded this power against Iran, making life extremely difficult for all Iranians. Importantly it has interrupted oil trade with India, China and Japan. Furthermore SWIFT, the Belgian-based international banking settlement agency, has halted all Iranian interbank transfers.
The sharp lesson for nations in Asia is that their own trade security is best served by having an alternative settlement medium to the dollar and other Western currencies. This function historically belongs to gold, but that is a last resort for central banks, and besides, many Asian central banks are gold-poor. This plays into China’s hands.
China is increasingly keen to provide her own currency for trade settlement purposes. She sees the dollar-monopoly as an important security threat, which is why she has in the past sought alternatives. She is now cautiously promoting her own currency for this role and is developing an offshore renminbi capital market in Hong Kong. At the same time she is evolving from manufacturing consumer goods towards capital goods, for which Hong Kong is the natural financing centre.
Her targeted growth-markets are other rapidly developing economies, as well as the whole Asian continent, and no longer the US and Europe. One of her key strategies through the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation is to build a pan-Asian security and trade bloc in partnership with Russia, and the last element of this 10-year old plan is to settle cross-border trade without using the West’s financial system. China expects to play a major part with her currency, which explains why she is adding to her gold reserves. The relevance of gold is that China will have to show to the people of Asia that her currency has better long-term prospects than the dollar, which goes some way to explaining why so many of the countries associated with the SCO are now also accumulating the metal. This analysis is confirmed by a leaked cable from the US Embassy in Beijing as long ago as April 2009 that can be seen in GATA’s database. As Iran and India also have SCO Observer status they are part of China’s grand strategy, and they have also been buying gold.
At some stage China will need to restate her gold reserves, and given this has to be credible rather that actual, she will probably release a suitable figure showing her to be the second largest holder behind the US. However, she is treading carefully, because she has to extricate herself from monetary relationships with the West, which ideally should be a gradual process: a sudden withdrawal could lead to a global systemic collapse and undermine her own dollar investments.
The question now arises as to whether an escalation of US pressure on Iran and her oil-trading partners will provoke an announcement from China about her gold. In any event there is bound to be a growing realisation of why gold is central to the economic futures of China, Russia and the whole of Asia. China’s financial and economic objectives will completely wrong-foot the major central banks that are committed to the demonetisation of gold.

下任特首CY

這是早年前一個私人聚餐上,他正在聆聽一些問題, 當時我見佢好專注咁去了解,就影左幾張相,

香港未來的發展,

就真係睇下CY你有無辦法搞好民生啦,


貓幣之原型

金銀幣的設計始於圖稿,而設計師的圖稿設計也並非來自憑空想象。當初,陳堅等人進行貓幣設計時,就花了大量的時間在動物園觀察和拍攝熊貓的形態和動感。 所以,1983年熊貓銀幣的得獎也是名至實歸。過去幾年貓幣的設計, 看來也是有原型的,見圖。



                                           2009  年






                                          
                                           2010 年





                                           2012 年




q.hexun.com.tw

Tungsten-Filled 1 Kilo Gold Bar Found In The UK


The last time a story of Tungsten-filled gold appeared on the scene was just two years ago, and involved a 500  gram bar of gold full of tungsten, at the W.C. Heraeus foundry, the world’s largest metal refiner and fabricator. It also became known that said “gold” bar originated from an unnamed bank. It is now time to rekindle the Tungsten Spirits with a report from ABC Bullion of Australia, which provides photographic evidence of a new gold bar that has been drilled out and filled with tungsten rods, this time not in Germany but in an unnamed city in the UK, where it was intercepted by a scrap metals dealer, and was supplied with its original certificate. The reason the bar attracted attention is that it was 2 grams underweight. Upon cropping it was uncovered that about 30-40% of the bar weight was tungsten. So two documented incidents in two years: isolated? Or indication of the same phenomonenon of precious metal debasement that marked the declining phase of the Roman empire. Only then it was relatively public for anyone who cared to find out on their own. Now, with the bulk of popular physical gold held in top secret, private warehouses around the world, where it allegedly backs the balance sheets of the world’s central banks, yet nobody can confirm its existence, nor audit the actual gold content, it is understandable why increasingly more are wondering: just how much gold is there? And alongside that – while gold, (or is it GLD?), can be rehypothecated, can one do the same with tungsten?

READ MORE

黑色三月 黃金價格四周大跌140美元

接連四周,國際金價持續下滑。最近16個交易日,黃金期貨累計下跌7.99%,從1785美元一路下跌到1644美元,成為表現最糟糕的期貨品種。
下跌步步驚心,投機者忐忑不安,偏偏這個時候,兩位世界級牛人又出來攪局。羅傑斯放言,只要金價跌至1600美元/盎司下方,將建立更多的黃金多頭倉位。而“股神”巴菲特則指出,黃金已經產生巨大泡沫。
昨日有消息稱,山東青島某商業銀行理財經理將客戶百萬資金劃入了黃金T+D交易賬號,結果僅剩下一萬元,虧損幅度達到99%,足以說明黃金投資風險巨大,血本無歸很容易。
期貨市場,多空的博弈更為慘烈,美國紐約商品交易所黃金期貨收盤繼續下滑,盤中一度觸及逾兩個月低點,跌到1644美元。而在去年的9月初,期金曾創出了歷史最高紀錄1923.70美元。
期貨市場上黃金的光芒正在逐漸消散時,“商品大王”羅傑斯放言,只要金價跌至1600美元/盎司下方,將建立更多的黃金多頭倉位。
“1600美元將是買入黃金的一個好點位。如果跌至1500美元,我將買入更多黃金。如果金價跌至1200美元或1300美元,我希望我足夠聰明,並買入更多黃金。”同時,羅傑斯正在做空美國長期國債,打算長期持有黃金和白銀。
有意思的是,巴菲特旗幟鮮明地看空黃金:媒體預先披露了巴菲特將在今年5月5日一年一度的股東大會上發布的《致股東的信》的部分內容,信中,巴菲特力挺股票投資,看空黃金。巴菲特說,黃金存在著兩大缺陷,一是它用處不大,另一個則是它沒有再生能力。
“巴菲特、羅傑斯都是國際著名投資大師,他們的言論自然有他們的道理,我不敢妄加評論誰對誰錯,主要還是從自己的分析方法出發,找到適合自己的方法。投資者也一樣,需要有自己的主見,中期來看,黃金價格我相對樂觀。”國聯證券的王銀平也在關注著黃金的走勢。
王銀平說,近期黃金連續下跌主要是因近期是消費淡季,黃金消費需求下降。而美元近期相對強勢,美國經濟復甦,引發了前期的獲利拋盤及空頭打壓。
“巴菲特其實一直不看好黃金。”王銀平分析說,這和巴菲特的投資喜好有關,股票才是巴菲特的專長。
“黃金價格長期看來走高的可能性也很小了。今年年底之前應該會達到1500美元/盎司左右,下一個低點是1200美元/盎司。”中國國際期貨有限公司北方區副總裁賈放表示,她個人認為,黃金價格的牛市已經結束,接下來黃金會繼續向下,速度比較緩慢。
SICA財富管理首席投資官Jeffrey Sica稱,“我認為目前黃金的拋售有些過度,黃金走勢和美元與美國推出更多經濟刺激政策的概率密切相關。”儘管全球經濟擔憂和地緣緊張局勢能為金價提供支撐,但金價波動性仍將走高。
“在對全球經濟狀況進行重新評估後,我們認為黃金可能會進一步走低。”德國商業銀行(Commerzbank)分析師Daniel Briesemann稱,“目前消息面不能對黃金形成任何支撐,我們應當為金價進一步走低做好準備。”
香港交易員稱,“市場擔憂經濟增幅放緩,通脹緩解,人們可能不會選擇購買黃金。”
印度珠寶商抗議印度上調黃金進口稅的活動還在持續,實物需求疲軟。
匯豐銀行首席商品分析師James Steel稱,“印度不斷積累的黃金需求將成為金價走勢的一個重要影響因素。”
全球最大的黃金上市交易基金(ETF)——SPDR Gold Trust截至3月21日的黃金持倉量維持在1290.25噸水平。
全球最大的白銀ETF——iShares Silver Trust截至3月21日的白銀持倉量減少25.68噸,至9726.99噸。