2012年9月27日星期四
7月份韓國黃金儲備增長30%
新浪財經訊 北京時間9月26日下午消息，據MarketWatch報導，7月份韓國黃金儲量環比增長30%至226萬金衡制盎司(約70噸)。俄羅斯7月黃金儲備從6月的2951萬金衡制盎司增至3011萬盎司。
此外土耳其和哈薩克斯坦也增加了黃金儲備。多數國家維持儲備不變，過去幾年只在某一個時間點增加了儲備。
貌似世界在圍剿中國
真看不懂
QE2之前（2010年11月），朝鮮延坪島砲擊導致朝鮮半島局勢緊張，之後人民幣快速升值。
OT2之前，中菲，中越南海衝突，之後擴大人民幣匯率波動幅度
OT2延期，中菲南海再次沖突升級，人民幣有效匯率升級（歐元貶值）。
QE3之前，中日釣魚島衝突。人民幣再次升級。預計：如果中日沖突無法緩和，人民幣可能在近期再次擴大匯率波動幅度，或者人民幣有效匯率再次升值（日元貶值？）。
以上來看，可以看出一個很清晰的脈絡，每一次地區局勢的緊張都造成了中國在匯率問題上的實質性讓步。這些都是為了什麼呢？一句話，資本外流。
我們可以看到國際資本的完美配合，先是美元貶值，再後是歐元貶值，現在日元要登場了嗎？如果中日爭端繼續持續升級，確實對於日本經濟來說造成打擊，但是這也會引發日資從中國大陸撤退，導致日元承受風險。更有甚者，中國政府被迫拋售日元資產等等，都會引發日元貶值。而日元貶值將直接推高人民幣對日元的有效匯率水平，貌似世界在圍剿中國。從國際資本移動的角度來看，中國經濟泡沫存在破滅的可能。
這種可能性，我們要從一個具體的指標來看。就是2013年的糧食和石油價格，如果用一個更大的地區衝突來推高世界恩格爾係數水平，我們有理由相信美聯儲會推出QE4的配合。上週一直在寫美聯儲QE3的分析，這週前三天一直在分析中國可能的經濟發展戰略。但是如果明年美國開始一場區域性戰爭的話，中國的經濟轉型有可能會被中斷，因為在高通脹下，資本在中國將無法尋得棲身之所。
QE2之前（2010年11月），朝鮮延坪島砲擊導致朝鮮半島局勢緊張，之後人民幣快速升值。
OT2之前，中菲，中越南海衝突，之後擴大人民幣匯率波動幅度
OT2延期，中菲南海再次沖突升級，人民幣有效匯率升級（歐元貶值）。
QE3之前，中日釣魚島衝突。人民幣再次升級。預計：如果中日沖突無法緩和，人民幣可能在近期再次擴大匯率波動幅度，或者人民幣有效匯率再次升值（日元貶值？）。
以上來看，可以看出一個很清晰的脈絡，每一次地區局勢的緊張都造成了中國在匯率問題上的實質性讓步。這些都是為了什麼呢？一句話，資本外流。
我們可以看到國際資本的完美配合，先是美元貶值，再後是歐元貶值，現在日元要登場了嗎？如果中日爭端繼續持續升級，確實對於日本經濟來說造成打擊，但是這也會引發日資從中國大陸撤退，導致日元承受風險。更有甚者，中國政府被迫拋售日元資產等等，都會引發日元貶值。而日元貶值將直接推高人民幣對日元的有效匯率水平，貌似世界在圍剿中國。從國際資本移動的角度來看，中國經濟泡沫存在破滅的可能。
這種可能性，我們要從一個具體的指標來看。就是2013年的糧食和石油價格，如果用一個更大的地區衝突來推高世界恩格爾係數水平，我們有理由相信美聯儲會推出QE4的配合。上週一直在寫美聯儲QE3的分析，這週前三天一直在分析中國可能的經濟發展戰略。但是如果明年美國開始一場區域性戰爭的話，中國的經濟轉型有可能會被中斷，因為在高通脹下，資本在中國將無法尋得棲身之所。
Silver and the Myth of Diminishing Returns From QE
There is lots of talk in the financial media about how there are
diminishing returns from QE (i.e. money printing) with each successive
round of counterfeiting. This is only true because such commentators are
stuck in paperbug world
and focusing on common stocks. But common stocks are in a secular bear
market, so it makes sense that there could be diminishing returns on
common equities related to bailing out banks and governments by
destroying the purchasing power of the currencies of the world.
But before we dismiss money printing as ineffective, we have to view it from the perspective of the investor that holds silver instead of paper money, certificates of confiscation (government bonds) or common equities. Helicopter Ben's experiment with everyone else's savings is going quite well from the perspective of one invested in silver. Here's a 4 year weekly chart of the silver price in US Dollars to show you what I mean:
I think $100/oz. or so sounds about right for silver within the next 1-2 years. Gold and silver stocks certainly flew out of the gates to end the summer as if anticipating this kind of potential move in the metals. As secular bull markets mature, the cyclical bull moves within them get stronger and faster. We have already started a new cyclical bull market in the PM sector in my opinion.
One of the sneaky tricks about inflation is that once money is counterfeited and passed around to those with connections to the printing press, we little folks don't always know where the subsequent price inflation is going to come from. While I may be wrong in thinking the best performing asset class over the next few years will be precious metals, the precious metals sector is certainly the easiest, most conservative, no-brainer choice to put both investment and speculative money to work. The federal reserve and other central bankstaz around the world will get price inflation by creating insane amounts of money out of thin air, it just may not be price inflation in the items they want.
In fact, as someone who always harps on the Dow to Gold ratio, I thought the silver to S&P 500 ratio chart may offer a clue as to how much further the run in silver relative to common stocks has to go if we maintain the current course for the next several years:
If Gold is going to $3500/oz and beyond (and I wouldn't bet against Jim Sinclair even with JP Morgan's money), silver will have a price in the triple digits. It's not that I think the federal reserve (not federal and has no reserves, so I see no reason to capitalize their name) can stop another stock market crash and/or major common stock bear market from happening. But they have proven to me that they are determined to destroy what's left of the value of the US Dollar and no one with any authority is interested in stopping them. Once a few more percent of the general population catch on to this in the advanced economies of the world, which are all going thru the same escalating serial currency abuse process, critical mass will be reached and the real Gold and silver stampede will begin. We're not there yet, but it's coming...
Hold onto your Gold, silver, platinum and PM stocks. While things are a little overbought in the short-term, we're going much higher in the PM sector. I stand by my call made in May of this year that GDX is going to 80 by May of 2013 and I suspect it could go much higher (GDX will likely get to triple digits before silver will).
Original Source
But before we dismiss money printing as ineffective, we have to view it from the perspective of the investor that holds silver instead of paper money, certificates of confiscation (government bonds) or common equities. Helicopter Ben's experiment with everyone else's savings is going quite well from the perspective of one invested in silver. Here's a 4 year weekly chart of the silver price in US Dollars to show you what I mean:
I think $100/oz. or so sounds about right for silver within the next 1-2 years. Gold and silver stocks certainly flew out of the gates to end the summer as if anticipating this kind of potential move in the metals. As secular bull markets mature, the cyclical bull moves within them get stronger and faster. We have already started a new cyclical bull market in the PM sector in my opinion.
One of the sneaky tricks about inflation is that once money is counterfeited and passed around to those with connections to the printing press, we little folks don't always know where the subsequent price inflation is going to come from. While I may be wrong in thinking the best performing asset class over the next few years will be precious metals, the precious metals sector is certainly the easiest, most conservative, no-brainer choice to put both investment and speculative money to work. The federal reserve and other central bankstaz around the world will get price inflation by creating insane amounts of money out of thin air, it just may not be price inflation in the items they want.
In fact, as someone who always harps on the Dow to Gold ratio, I thought the silver to S&P 500 ratio chart may offer a clue as to how much further the run in silver relative to common stocks has to go if we maintain the current course for the next several years:
If Gold is going to $3500/oz and beyond (and I wouldn't bet against Jim Sinclair even with JP Morgan's money), silver will have a price in the triple digits. It's not that I think the federal reserve (not federal and has no reserves, so I see no reason to capitalize their name) can stop another stock market crash and/or major common stock bear market from happening. But they have proven to me that they are determined to destroy what's left of the value of the US Dollar and no one with any authority is interested in stopping them. Once a few more percent of the general population catch on to this in the advanced economies of the world, which are all going thru the same escalating serial currency abuse process, critical mass will be reached and the real Gold and silver stampede will begin. We're not there yet, but it's coming...
Hold onto your Gold, silver, platinum and PM stocks. While things are a little overbought in the short-term, we're going much higher in the PM sector. I stand by my call made in May of this year that GDX is going to 80 by May of 2013 and I suspect it could go much higher (GDX will likely get to triple digits before silver will).
Original Source
羅耕:QE幻覺
QE3無限期每月買400億美元MBS，坊間彷佛預期聯儲局將無時限無量限狂印，繼而有地產代理高呼「銀紙變廢紙」，憧憬樓價無限狂升。真的如此？看清聲明再講。
會後聲明指reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agencydebt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agencymortgage-backed securities。見嗎，不包括國債的。
據上周紀錄，聯儲局現持國債1.6萬億(美元．下同)。按尚餘檔期劃分，主要一年以上，占99.9%。將每檔期的持額除以檔期中位，即得每月平均到期額，所有檔期合共270億，占每月要買MBS的三分之二。換言之，要印鈔的部分，頂多只占三分之一。
聯儲局QE3有大半是換馬，加上歐洲央行OMT全數沖銷，那何來大量資金湧港，制造無限升市？
會後聲明指reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agencydebt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agencymortgage-backed securities。見嗎，不包括國債的。
據上周紀錄，聯儲局現持國債1.6萬億(美元．下同)。按尚餘檔期劃分，主要一年以上，占99.9%。將每檔期的持額除以檔期中位，即得每月平均到期額，所有檔期合共270億，占每月要買MBS的三分之二。換言之，要印鈔的部分，頂多只占三分之一。
聯儲局QE3有大半是換馬，加上歐洲央行OMT全數沖銷，那何來大量資金湧港，制造無限升市？
王冠一 目光如炬回報可觀
美國聯邦儲備局推出無限量版QE3，每月購買400億按揭抵押證券〔MBS〕，直至失業率顯著回落為止。對於失業率要回落至哪一水平聯儲局才會滿足，《路透社》早前訪問了52名經濟學者，平均估計是失業率要降至7%，QE3才會叫停，而估計購買MBS最終規模將介乎5000億至2萬億之間，平均值為6000億美元，與聯儲局有直接業務往來的13家經紀商則平均估計購買規模為7500億美元。
有「債王」稱譽的PIMCO聯席投資總監格羅斯獨排眾議，指除非失業率降至6%或以下，聯儲局不會叫停QE3，警告稱美國正進入通脹循環，估計未來數年通脹將攀升至3.0%至3.5%，建議投資者應著眼於發展中國家的投資組合，採用年期較短及選擇實貨資產及通脹掛?證券。
格羅斯並非浪得虛名，在市場對聯儲局會否加推加推QE3仍爭論不休時，他早已押注於QE3出台，更認定今次的主打會是按揭抵押證券，故PIMCO網站早於4月的數據已顯示，由他掌舵當時規模達2,524億美元的總回報基金〔Total Return Fund〕已大舉減持美債的比重，由2月的37%降至3月的32%，並把MBS於組合中的比重由52%增至53%，為2009年6月後最高水平。在聯儲局落實QE3後，數據亦顯示規模已膨脹至2,725億美元的總回報基金，於8月底把美國國債比重由7月的33%大幅減持至21%，並進一步增持MBS的比重。奇準的眼光，再次令債王成為聯儲局量寬政策下的大贏家。
美債10年孳息於聯儲局加推QE3翌日由1.74%急升至1.87%，周一因歐債危機缺乏進展而輾轉回落至QE3出台時的1.72%，但孳息於7月下旬曾創下1.38%的紀錄新低，反映總回報基金成功於高位減持。雖然格羅斯亦有看錯市時候，於去年3月便一度把所持美債清倉，並大舉沽空美債，把現金和流動資產的比重提升至接近四成，令其旗下基金罕有地跑輸給逾九成同業，但他很快便覺今是而昨非，迅速改變投資策略，重新吸納美債補飛。美債去年回報高達9.8%，為近3年最佳，遠遠跑贏標普500指數的2.1%回報，及時轉?，亦令總回報基金免於見紅。
美國政府為金融海嘯善後而大灑金錢支持經濟，連續4年財赤均逾萬億美元，政府負債亦由2007年的少於9萬億增至現時逾16萬億，但受惠於聯儲局於2008年12月開始把聯邦基金利率維持於零至0.25%、兩輪量化寬鬆政策合共購買了2.3萬億的證券，以及歐債危機令資金湧往美債避險，息率被人為壓低，美國融資成本由當年的逾5%降至低於2%，負債增加，利息負擔卻不升反挫。
不過，歐美英日瑞(士)等央行均相繼加大印鈔規模，加上異常天氣令農作物失收，地緣政治局勢令油價居高不下，高盛最新報告已預期大宗商品價格於未來1年升幅將達18.2%，當中能源分類指數升幅更達26.5%，意味通脹已在醞釀中，聯儲局延長維持超寬鬆貨幣政策至2015年中的承諾，可能只是一廂情願，持有美債將要面對利率上升的風險，美債最大主顧的中國，持有美債雖由2011年最高峰的1.31萬億美元降至現時的1.15萬億，仍可能蒙受不菲損失，在美股此個歷來最大泡沫爆煲前做好預防措施，及早把投資多元化，才是聰明做法。
有「債王」稱譽的PIMCO聯席投資總監格羅斯獨排眾議，指除非失業率降至6%或以下，聯儲局不會叫停QE3，警告稱美國正進入通脹循環，估計未來數年通脹將攀升至3.0%至3.5%，建議投資者應著眼於發展中國家的投資組合，採用年期較短及選擇實貨資產及通脹掛?證券。
格羅斯並非浪得虛名，在市場對聯儲局會否加推加推QE3仍爭論不休時，他早已押注於QE3出台，更認定今次的主打會是按揭抵押證券，故PIMCO網站早於4月的數據已顯示，由他掌舵當時規模達2,524億美元的總回報基金〔Total Return Fund〕已大舉減持美債的比重，由2月的37%降至3月的32%，並把MBS於組合中的比重由52%增至53%，為2009年6月後最高水平。在聯儲局落實QE3後，數據亦顯示規模已膨脹至2,725億美元的總回報基金，於8月底把美國國債比重由7月的33%大幅減持至21%，並進一步增持MBS的比重。奇準的眼光，再次令債王成為聯儲局量寬政策下的大贏家。
美債10年孳息於聯儲局加推QE3翌日由1.74%急升至1.87%，周一因歐債危機缺乏進展而輾轉回落至QE3出台時的1.72%，但孳息於7月下旬曾創下1.38%的紀錄新低，反映總回報基金成功於高位減持。雖然格羅斯亦有看錯市時候，於去年3月便一度把所持美債清倉，並大舉沽空美債，把現金和流動資產的比重提升至接近四成，令其旗下基金罕有地跑輸給逾九成同業，但他很快便覺今是而昨非，迅速改變投資策略，重新吸納美債補飛。美債去年回報高達9.8%，為近3年最佳，遠遠跑贏標普500指數的2.1%回報，及時轉?，亦令總回報基金免於見紅。
美國政府為金融海嘯善後而大灑金錢支持經濟，連續4年財赤均逾萬億美元，政府負債亦由2007年的少於9萬億增至現時逾16萬億，但受惠於聯儲局於2008年12月開始把聯邦基金利率維持於零至0.25%、兩輪量化寬鬆政策合共購買了2.3萬億的證券，以及歐債危機令資金湧往美債避險，息率被人為壓低，美國融資成本由當年的逾5%降至低於2%，負債增加，利息負擔卻不升反挫。
不過，歐美英日瑞(士)等央行均相繼加大印鈔規模，加上異常天氣令農作物失收，地緣政治局勢令油價居高不下，高盛最新報告已預期大宗商品價格於未來1年升幅將達18.2%，當中能源分類指數升幅更達26.5%，意味通脹已在醞釀中，聯儲局延長維持超寬鬆貨幣政策至2015年中的承諾，可能只是一廂情願，持有美債將要面對利率上升的風險，美債最大主顧的中國，持有美債雖由2011年最高峰的1.31萬億美元降至現時的1.15萬億，仍可能蒙受不菲損失，在美股此個歷來最大泡沫爆煲前做好預防措施，及早把投資多元化，才是聰明做法。
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