化名百寶盒 黃金月餅悄悄賣 仍有官員低調買

與去年各大金店紛紛掛海報宣傳銷售「黃金月餅」不同，今年內地金店將「黃金月餅」改名「百寶盒」，低調上市

媒體昨(4)日曝出，北京多家金店出售「黃金月餅」，由於日前中央紀委常委會強調禁止中秋節、國慶節公款送月餅、送節禮，為應對此正風肅紀，這些 「天價月餅」改頭換面，改名「百寶盒」，以每50g上萬元(人民幣，下同)的零售價出售，每塊最高價達16萬元之多。有消息稱，政府官員曾低調購買，可謂 逆風而上。

香港《文匯報》報導，記者走訪多家銀行及金店時發現，這種黃金月餅雕工精細，與平常食用的月餅並無兩樣，但價格昂貴，每50g的售價在 15000至20000元間浮動，至於為何存在近5000元的差價，銷售人員稱，主因在於雕工精粗不同。不過總體而言，今年這種「天價月餅」的銷售並不明 目張膽，多家金店中並未存有現貨。賣家稱，如有意購買，可提前預訂，工作人員可前往其他店面調貨，或向廠家直接訂購。

面對當下正風肅紀的大氣候，「天價月餅」依然不乏銷路。業內人士透露，他的一位銀行客戶，一次選購了三四個，也有政府工作人員前來購買，這些買主的行事都非常低調。這種「天價月餅」最輕一款為50g，零售價為2萬元；最重一款達347g，零售價16萬元。

不僅買家低調，賣家在銷售過程中也謹小慎微。「天價月餅」的名稱由過往的「黃金月餅」轉化為「百寶盒」。北京某家銀行的客戶經理稱，今年做營銷培訓 時，培訓方特意強調，今年在銷售過程中不能提「黃金月餅」，而要改口稱「百寶盒」。她還稱，這種月餅今年賣得不錯，但被問及具體銷售數額時，她則拒絕回 答。有些金店試圖通過開虛假髮票意圖掩蓋真相，打開「天價月餅」缺口，為使購買此種「黃金月餅」不太顯眼，商品發票可開成辦公用品、勞保用品、禮品或十台 打印機。

去年中秋黃金月餅銷售火爆，記者昨日以購買者身份探訪金至尊、周大福、老鳳祥、潮宏基等金店時發現，「黃金月餅」變身「百寶盒」，花樣翻新。銷售人 員一見買主上門，便熱情介紹，推銷最後，還留有名片，稱如有疑問，可隨時溝通。記者還一睹「黃金月餅」真容。銷售人員手上的「黃金月餅」雕工精緻，正面刻 有一個「福」字、背面刻有「花好月圓」字樣，與日常月餅形狀並無兩樣，一塊售價2.1萬元。而推銷的一盒裝「黃金月餅」，禮盒中，共有一大七小的八塊「月 餅」，售價約8萬元。

雖然買者、買者花樣百出，但清明風氣仍然影響到「天價月餅」的銷售量，一位銷售人員大歎今年「黃金月餅」銷售市場的蕭條。今年「黃金月餅」的銷售量和去年沒法比，去年此種月餅總銷售額達到24億元，今年僅售出幾萬套，銷售總額只數億元。

How Money is Made & Printed

BREAKING: Silver Miners Lose Half A Billion Dollars

銀價下跌,礦商已出現嚴重虧損

In an amazing change of events, the top primary silver miners went from making money in the first quarter of 2013, to losing over half a billion dollars in second quarter.  The majority of losses came from huge impairment charges due to much lower silver spot prices during the period.

If we look at the chart below we can see how three months and substantially lower silver prices can impact the bottom line in the top 12 primary silver miners:

From the SRSRocco Report:


Starting at the top of the table, total Revenues from group declined from $804.9 million in Q1 down to $739.9 million in Q2 2013.  This was only a $65 million decline or 8% less than the previous quarter, but the group sold a great deal more silver and still suffered a large loss.

You will notice that in Q1, there were 20.3 million oz in silver sales, however in the second quarter the top 12 miners sold nearly 4 million more ounces or a total of 24.1 million oz.  Furthermore, the by-product credits increased from $254.8 million in Q1 to $272.8 million during Q2 2013.
Not only did the top 12 primary miners sell nearly 20% more silver and $18 million more in by-product metal revenue compared to the previous quarter, they recorded a $544.6 million net income loss instead of a $90.7 net income gain during Q1 2013.

Again, the majority of the half a billion dollar loss was due to impairment write-offs by the companies from much lower average silver prices reflected during the second quarter  –  Silver Standard took a $202 million impairment charge and Pan American wrote off $185 million.

NOTE:  My top 12 primary silver miners do not include Fresnillo or Hochshild.  While both of these companies are primary silver miners, they only state their financials every 6 months.  It is true that Fresnillo recording profits for the year, however Hochschild reported a loss.  Also, Fresnillo now receives more revenue from gold than silver.

ADJUSTED INCOME:  The Tell-Tale Sign of Profitability

Regardless, the real tell-tale sign of the quarter to quarter profitability of a mining company is shown by its “Adjusted Income.”  Highlighted in green, the primary silver miners as a group recorded $94.4 million in adjusted income during the first quarter of 2013.  However, just three months later they stated an adjusted income loss of $88.3 million.

This turns out to be an amazing $183 million dollar net change from quarter to quarter ($94.4 + $88.3 = $182.7 million).

As a refresher, many companies provide adjusted income by taking out impairment charges, acquisitions/sales of properties, losses due to derivatives and etc.  If a company does not provide an adjusted income, I manually calculate it myself.  This adjusted income figure does not meet exact accounting standards… but it comes pretty close.

The reason why we have to go by adjusted income is due to the fact that net income becomes totally useless in obtaining a break-even cost analysis if it contains a great deal of gains or losses not attributed to the day-to-day operation of mining silver.

For example, if you look at the bottom of the chart, you will see that the miners as a group stated a net income loss of $22.51 per ounce of silver.  Which means they would need $45.14 an ounce to break-even… according to the net income approach.  Those huge impairment write-offs have significantly skewed the ability to find a more common sense break-even.

Before we get to the next chart, take a look at the yellow highlighted area.  This is the mine operating earnings which account for production costs, royalties and depreciation, depletion & amortization… and that’s it.  It does not include general & administrative, exploration, foreign exchange losses and etc.

In just one-quarter, the mine operating earnings of the group fell from 29.9% of total revenue down to 5.1%.  That means the remaining 5.1% of the income had to pay the rest of the bills including taxes.

The Top 12 Primary Miners Q2 2013 Estimated Break Even

This next chart shows what happens to the primary mining industry when the price of silver is taken down by the Fed and Central Banks.



According to my calculations of the top 12 primary silver miners in my group, the average realized price received during Q2 2013 was $22.63.  The white dotted line shows where this $22.63 level falls.  As you can see, it runs below nine of the silver companies.  Thus, nine of the silver miners had adjusted losses for the period.

The BLUE BARS represent the “Adjusted Break-Even” for each of the twelve silver miners.  The large RED BAR shows the average adjusted break-even for the group.  In order for the top 12 primary silver miners to break-even as a group, they had to receive $25.26 an ounce during the second quarter.
Because the average realized price of silver was only $22.63, the group lost $2.63 of silver income for every ounce of silver they sold in Q2 2013.  Before we go any further, let me explain my method.

The adjusted income loss was $88.3 million.  So, if we were to divide that figure by 24.1 million oz of silver sales, it would show a $3.66 loss per ounce and not the $2.63 that I calculated.  The reason for the difference is that I believe part of the gain or loss of adjusted income is attributed to the by-product metal revenue.

If a mining company receives 60% of its revenue from silver and 40% from its by-product credits (revenue), then part of the adjusted gain or loss comes from either that copper, lead, zinc or gold that was sold.  Again, my method is to find a more “Pure Silver Income.”

Heading back up to the table at the top of the article, you can see that the Estimated Break Even (pure silver) in Q1 2013 was $26.45 and in Q2 it had fallen to $25.26.  Part of the reason why I believe this figure declined was due to cutting of costs as well as more revenue received from by-product metals.

Yes, I realize that the production costs increased substantially from $416 million Q1 to $512 million in Q2, but that was mainly due to Coeur & Hecla ramping up production compared to the previous quarter.
There is so much more to explain and discuss on these matters, but that will be available in the “Silver Miners Paid Report” that will be coming out soon.

Estimated Break-Even is Not a Sustainable Figure

I want to make sure that the reader-investor realizes that a break-even figure is not something a mining company shoots for.  They are in the business to make profits.  From those profits the company can acquire more properties, expand its projects, pay dividends and etc.
A mining company can not survive by breaking even for an extended period.  It needs profits to sustain its business model of replacing reserves as well as dealing with rising costs in the future.  I have read where individuals believe the mining companies can produce silver at much lower prices while hiding profits through supposed tax write-offs such as depletion, depreciation and amortization (D,D & A).
I am not going to get into details on D, D & A, but I will make a brief point by using Pan American Silver as an example:

The yellow highlighted area shows the depreciation & amortization (D & A).  If we just look at Q2 2013, you will see that Pan American recorded a $32.2 million for D & A.  That $32.2 million figure was not an actual cash expense but an estimated operational expense that denotes the decline in value of the mine, plant & equipment.

If you go down to the red highlighted area, you will see that they made payments of $44.3 million for mineral property, plant and equipment.  According to their segmented information on capital expenditures for Q2 2013, Pan American actually spent $46.8 million on their seven mines during the second quarter.

While that $32.2 million in depreciation & amortization is not an actual operational expense for the quarter, that $46.8 million in CAPEX sure is.  Basically, Pan American spent more on CAPEX in Q2 than it recorded for its D & A.  Here we can see that maintaining mines, plant and equipment is an expensive affair for the mining industry.

Even though my estimated break-even for the top 12 primary silver miners was an average of $25.26 an ounce, at least five in the group would lose money at that price.  Moreover, these miners need to make profits to sustain their business in the future.  I would imagine a price of at least $30 an ounce would be needed by the group and even higher for the marginal producers if they want to stay in business for the longer haul.

Lastly, as the primary silver miners are presently struggling with manipulated low prices, I believe market conditions will turn around, making this industry one of the most successful investments in the future.
More on that in upcoming articles.

羅耕 2013年9月5日

敘利亞隨時被轟炸，金、油價格齊齊飆高。金、銀孰升得快，前周六拙文已經表過，是美彙作怪。至於紐約油還是倫敦油升得急，概應與地緣有關：初時因敘利亞在歐洲，故倫敦油先炒上；後來美國嚷著要出兵，紐約油遂追落後。炒交叉，本想就此簡單。

但若金、銀價比與美、英油價比成正比，又怎解畫？想深一層，美、英油價比其實多少反映美元兌歐羅比，鑒於歐羅在美彙指數占比甚重，故美元兌歐羅又與美彙相關。既然前周指美彙與金、銀價比成正比，那麼兩油價比與兩貴金屬比成正比，很自然了。

目前而言(紅點)，金比銀貴，不然則紐約油比倫敦油貴了。

陶冬天下 9月18日，聯儲出手嗎？

陶冬

「各就各位，1…2…2.5…」

當你站在起跑線前，發令員喊出上面的口令，你是跑還是不跑？聯儲於9月18日，在tapering(減少放水)啟動上發出的可能就是「2.5」而不是「3」的口令。


被大肆渲染的、曾經誘發市場大幅震盪的QE減碼時間日漸逼近。美國的經濟數據突然轉弱，國會設置的債務上限即將觸頂。在出招前的一刻，聯邦儲備局開始為是否按時啟動減少購債計劃而躊躇，市場也開始有所懷疑。美國貨幣當局到底會不會於9月18日扣動扳機，揭開退出QE的大幕？


筆者認為，聯儲十有八九會選擇按計劃推出QE減碼計劃。

首 先，經過一輪熙攘和市場動盪，tapering已經深入人心，並被反映在資本價格上，聯儲此時踩煞車，其世界第一央行的信用勢必受損，市場也可能再次陷入 動盪。再者，聯儲內部鴿派、鷹派均要求退出，國會內類似呼聲也強烈，踩煞車的政治後果、人事後果難以預料。最後，tapering的窗口很快會關閉，如果 九月會議不作動作，以後困難更大。10月份會議(10月29、30日)恰逢債務上限，伯南克接任人選也差不多出爐。12月份會議(12月17、18日)太 近聖誕節，聯儲傳統上很少在那時推出新政策。1月份會議(1月28、29日)已至伯南克卸任前夜。聯儲之後幾次會議，看來對tapering來說均非黃道 吉日，逼著伯南克早做動作，一旦經濟或市場反應強烈，阿伯還有補救的時間。


但是經濟數據(尤其是住房數據)突然轉弱，又使決策者心懷懸念。伯南克此時退出，就是試圖為身後留下清名，萬一處置不當，有可能留下的是?名。所以在退出力度上，決策層必然酌情減量，走溫和路線，同時利用出口術來安撫市場情緒，儘量避免經濟衰退或市場震盪。


綜 合上述理由，筆者預言聯儲於9月18日正式啟動tapering，但是減碼規模縮小。兩個月前市場估計每月850億美元的購債計劃可能被砍一半(即減至 450億)，現在看來大約減少200億(即改為聯儲每月購國債350億，MBS300億)。MBS債的發行規模已經大幅下降，此幅度的減債相信對經濟與房 市的影響有限。


同時聯儲會出言安撫市場，強調tapering(減少放水)和tightening(收水)完全不同，低利率環境還會在相當長時間內維持。聯儲甚至可能將QE退出的數值目標(如失業率等)放寬，降低QE退出第一個動作的衝擊性。


經過四年有餘的放水，美國貨幣政策即將出現拐點，這對全球的流動性環境可能帶來深遠的影響，但是第一個動作估計相當地溫和。

BBH：8月黃金ETF基金流出量跟黃金價格不成正比

聰明的一定是揀實物黃金...
 

布朗兄弟哈里曼（BBH）策略師表示8月黃金ETF基金的流出量跟黃金價格不成正比。

分析師指出8月黃金ETF基金的流出量達6億9千萬美元，不過現貨金價卻上升6% 。

 BBH表示將會密切留意黃金ETF的流量會否在這段時間跟隨金價走勢。

根據黃金ETF基金的趨勢，上月表現最佳的25個非融資的ETF基金當中，有20個的表現跟商品走勢有關聯。

印度海關 釐清黃金進口規定 買家再度準備購金

據路透社報導，隨著印度海關部門闡明黃金進​​口新規，買家週三重新準備開始進口黃金，標誌著這個全球最大黃金購買國在六週的進口空窗期後重返金市，但也可能威脅到政​​府支撐盧比匯率的努力。

約有0.25噸滯留孟買機場的黃金應會進入印度最大金市Zaveri Bazaar，該市場每日銷售額近1,000萬美元，珠寶商表示最快週四就會下新的進口訂單。

“約250公斤滯留機場的黃金將釋出。未來2-3天可望有新的交貨，”全印寶石珠寶貿易聯合會(All India Gems and Jewellery Trade Federation)主管Bachhraj Bamalwa稱。

印度央行為幫助政府遏止推高經常帳赤字的黃金進口潮，7月22日時告知進口商，其購買的黃金中，20%必須再轉為出口。但規則細節不完整，使得買家縮手轉而僅動用之前的庫存。

印度海關部門週三發布了央行對進口黃金要求的指導原則，闡明如何區分80%供國內使用、及監控20%的出口部分。

前述舉措旨在提振出口，但也可能將進口控製到每月約30噸--約為均量的一半--讓印度得以循序達成2012/13財年845噸的政府目標。

但由於雨季情況比預期要好，料使農村地區農戶的可支配所得增加，因此今年稍後國內買盤可能激增。這些農戶約佔印度黃金需求的六成。

Pimco總收益基金規模4個月內狂降410億美元

伯南克可能放緩QE的言論讓債券基金的日子很難過。

在過去4個月，由於遭受損失以及投資者資金贖回，格羅斯管理的Pimco總收益基金（PTTRX）規模減少了410億美元，降幅達14%。總部位於芝加哥的研究機構晨星公司在周三的一份電子郵件聲明中稱，8月份，Pimco總收益基金贖回的規模達77億美元，這是連續第四個月的資金贖回，贖回規模為今年以來的第二高。

在美聯儲主席伯南克5月份提升了美聯儲削減QE的可能後，從格羅斯到Jeffrey Gundlach到Dan Fuss等頂級基金管理者的基金都遭受了損失。世界最主流的固定收益基準之一巴克萊美國綜合指數自5月22日以來下跌了近3%，今年總計下降了3.2%。

根據美國投資公司協會預計，6月份，投資者從美國債券基金贖回了600億美元資金，這是自1961年以來最大的單月贖回記錄，上個月截止8月28日贖回規模達262億美元。根據晨星公司的數據，6月份Pimco總收益基金贖回規模達96億美元。

根據彭博的數據，在過去的4個月中，投資者從Pimco總收益基金贖回了約260億美元資金，截止週二，這個基金已經損失了3.9%，落後於86%的同行。在過去的5年中，Pimco總收益基金上漲了6.7%，領先於87%的同行。

根據晨星公司的估計，8月份，Gundlach管理的雙線總收益債券基金連續第三個月贖回，投資者贖回的規模達11億美元。根據彭博的數據，自4月30日以來，這個基金的資產損失了約10%。今年以來，Gundlach的雙線總收益債券基金下跌了1.2%，領先於86%的同行，在過去3年中的回報為7%，領先於97%的同行。

週三，美國10年期國債收益率從5月21日（伯南克講話的前一天）1.93%上漲至2.9%，根據美銀美林的數據，美國國債價格今年已經下跌了3.5%。

全球最大黃金生產商Barrick被股東要求縮減規模

全球最大黃金生產商Barrick被其小股東，美國風投公司Two Fish，要求將採礦工程師和地質學家排除在董事會外，Two Fish還認為Barrick規模太大。

Two Fish創始人Mike Morris在週三表示Barrick沒有必要擁有一個全球金礦集團。按市場來看，該公司應該大幅度減小規模。

自從Two Fish最早在今年4月提出要求後，Barrick同意已經以4億5500萬的價格出售其子公司Barrick Energy。總共3億美元的價格出售了在西澳大利亞和南非的三座高成本金礦。但Two Fish對此並不滿意，他們認為Barrick應該繼續減輕負擔。

Morris說：這是一家加拿大的大公司，但這也是全球最大的黃金生產商，它不需要在董事會放一個地質學家和工程師。

Two Fish在Barrick的股份比例不高，主要是認購期權。

Barrick在南美的Pascua Lama金礦項目在8月由於環保問題被智利政府叫停，這座被Barrick稱為"世界級的礦山"曾被寄予厚望。此外金價在今年的下跌也讓Barrick困難重重。今年2季度該公司報凈虧損85.6億美元，與去年同期超過7億的盈利差距極大。

Barrick在一份聲明中說：公司正在實施一個規律的資本分配框架，專注于最大化自由現金流和風險調整後回報率。我們相信這一策略會長期推動高級股東們的回報。

Barrick已通過降低資本支出和人力水準來減少運營成本，稱將在2013-2014年通過減少資產支出甚至包括裁員的手段節省15到18億美元。