去年金融市場波譎雲詭，不少對沖基金經理「睇錯市」，業界平均虧蝕5%。不過，全球最大對沖基金Bridgewater Associates逆市大賺一筆，去年回報達23%，為全球表現最佳對沖基金之一。
管理資產超普爾遜
Bridgewater管理的資產值近1,200億美元，由華爾街著名對沖基金經理達利奧（Ray Dalio）「打骰」，規模遠超「賺錢之神」普爾遜去年初高峰期時管理的380億美元，後者的旗艦基金Advantage Plus勁蝕51%。
據消息人士稱，Bridgewater去年透過買入美債、德債及日圓，成功在歐債危機及全球經濟增長乏力背景下獲利。事實上，該基金在一○年的回報率高達45%，大幅拋離業界平均的10%，而過去二十年複式回報率高達14.7%，跑贏標普500指數同期平均約8.7%回報率。
看淡澳元今年表現
達利奧表示，今年他看好金價前景，因多國爭相印銀紙應付債務開支，將刺激通脹，利好金價表現。不過，他看淡澳元及另外數隻新興市場貨幣。
2012年1月28日星期六
現貨溢價的定義 和 解釋
定義：
亦稱為逆向市場或反向市場(Inverted Market)是指在特殊情況下，現貨價格高於期貨價格(或者近期月份合約價格高於遠期月份合約價格)，基差為正值。在反向市場上，隨著時間的推進，現貨價格與期貨價格如同在正向市場上一樣，到交割月份會逐步趨向一致。
在反向市場中，由於需求遠大於供給，現貨價格高於期貸價格，近期合約價格相對於遠期合約價格升幅更大時，就可以入市做牛市套利。
但是反向市場牛市套利的獲利潛力巨大而風險卻有限。另外，無論在正向市場還是反向市場，熊市套利的做法都是賣出近期合約同時買入遠期合約。
詳細解釋：
現貨溢價，顧名思義即為現貨價格高於期貨價格。在白銀市場中即表現為現貨白銀價格對期貨白銀價格，近月合約對遠月合約出現升水。
在貴金屬期貨市場上，當供求關係正常的情況下，由於各種儲存成本以及機會成本的存在，遠期合約通常被賦予更多溢價，即遠期合約價格總是高於近期合約價格。
而一旦這種局面出現逆轉則屬於不正常現象。正如James Turk評論的那樣，對於一般大宗商品來說，現貨溢價並不是什麼稀罕事，但對於白銀這種貴金屬來說卻是個"重大事件"，該情形往往伴隨著其價格的重大變動。
Turk指出，現貨溢價現象的出現意味著近期白銀市場供給出現短缺或者需求量陡然增大，供不應求的市場格局將推動銀價迅速上揚。預計短期內該現象將不會終止，此次現貨溢價可能將會持續長達12個月之久!
Turk提到，2009年1月白銀市場曾經出現過現貨溢價現象，在之後的4週內銀價從10.50美元/盎司大幅攀升至14.50美元/盎司，漲幅接近40%。
如果銀價能夠把握住眼前的現貨溢價機會，那麼另一波強勁的漲勢將蓄勢待發。在未來數週內暢通無阻地突破去年12月初觸及的31美元上方的30年高點亦是不在話下。(PS:此文章發報於 16-1-2012,今天27-1-2012,銀價收於US$33.99)
另外值得一提的是，中國對於現貨白銀的需求正在呈迅猛增長之勢，該國2010年白銀進口量大增400%。種種跡象表明，中國料將成為全球白銀市場行情的主導者。
亦稱為逆向市場或反向市場(Inverted Market)是指在特殊情況下，現貨價格高於期貨價格(或者近期月份合約價格高於遠期月份合約價格)，基差為正值。在反向市場上，隨著時間的推進，現貨價格與期貨價格如同在正向市場上一樣，到交割月份會逐步趨向一致。
在反向市場中，由於需求遠大於供給，現貨價格高於期貸價格，近期合約價格相對於遠期合約價格升幅更大時，就可以入市做牛市套利。
但是反向市場牛市套利的獲利潛力巨大而風險卻有限。另外，無論在正向市場還是反向市場，熊市套利的做法都是賣出近期合約同時買入遠期合約。
詳細解釋：
現貨溢價，顧名思義即為現貨價格高於期貨價格。在白銀市場中即表現為現貨白銀價格對期貨白銀價格，近月合約對遠月合約出現升水。
在貴金屬期貨市場上，當供求關係正常的情況下，由於各種儲存成本以及機會成本的存在，遠期合約通常被賦予更多溢價，即遠期合約價格總是高於近期合約價格。
而一旦這種局面出現逆轉則屬於不正常現象。正如James Turk評論的那樣，對於一般大宗商品來說，現貨溢價並不是什麼稀罕事，但對於白銀這種貴金屬來說卻是個"重大事件"，該情形往往伴隨著其價格的重大變動。
Turk指出，現貨溢價現象的出現意味著近期白銀市場供給出現短缺或者需求量陡然增大，供不應求的市場格局將推動銀價迅速上揚。預計短期內該現象將不會終止，此次現貨溢價可能將會持續長達12個月之久!
Turk提到，2009年1月白銀市場曾經出現過現貨溢價現象，在之後的4週內銀價從10.50美元/盎司大幅攀升至14.50美元/盎司，漲幅接近40%。
如果銀價能夠把握住眼前的現貨溢價機會，那麼另一波強勁的漲勢將蓄勢待發。在未來數週內暢通無阻地突破去年12月初觸及的31美元上方的30年高點亦是不在話下。(PS:此文章發報於 16-1-2012,今天27-1-2012,銀價收於US$33.99)
另外值得一提的是，中國對於現貨白銀的需求正在呈迅猛增長之勢，該國2010年白銀進口量大增400%。種種跡象表明，中國料將成為全球白銀市場行情的主導者。
Why the premium on silver is higher that that of gold
Gold Radio Cafe with Brad Yates from NTR Bullion Group - 01-27-2012 , Brad explains on a logistical point of view why is the premium on silver so much higher that that of gold and he explains why the recent FED's call is very bullish for gold and silver
Jim Opines On Martin Armstrong’s Latest Prediction
January 27, 2012, at 1:02 pm
by Jim Sinclair in the category Martin Armstrong
My Dear Friends,
I have made it a practice not to comment on other people’s opinions as everyone has a right to voice how they see things and express themselves. I also know that no one really knows to the penny or exact day. Having said that, we in the community have given a stage to an expert on long term cyclical economic and political events.
Martin Armstrong is a master of this discipline and may have no real competition between cycle and historic commentary. However, as you can see from one example of the large amount of incoming mail I am getting over the past few days, I need to answer Martin’s third bearish call.
The first two calls for $1100 did not materialize. In fact, gold twice went in the opposite direction with a fervour.
I do not agree with Martin here and now.
By normal measures, the US dollar is violently oversold. The dollar and gold has been tied whether I like it or not.
There are special circumstances in the dollar now as the Fed has turned the light on domestic QE. I cannot see a significant dollar rally as a result. I also cannot see gold doing worse than chopping into the $1700 range.
If there is anything correct to his bearish prediction, which I doubt, it would take this action to a chop between $1650-1764, but I think we are now moving into the $1700-2111 range.
Martin Armstrong is the master at the long term cyclical events. To abandon gold now to try and buy it cheaper in 60 to 90 days with the world of finance in the condition it is in, is in my mind MADNESS.
Sincerely,
Jim
by Jim Sinclair in the category Martin Armstrong
My Dear Friends,
I have made it a practice not to comment on other people’s opinions as everyone has a right to voice how they see things and express themselves. I also know that no one really knows to the penny or exact day. Having said that, we in the community have given a stage to an expert on long term cyclical economic and political events.
Martin Armstrong is a master of this discipline and may have no real competition between cycle and historic commentary. However, as you can see from one example of the large amount of incoming mail I am getting over the past few days, I need to answer Martin’s third bearish call.
The first two calls for $1100 did not materialize. In fact, gold twice went in the opposite direction with a fervour.
I do not agree with Martin here and now.
By normal measures, the US dollar is violently oversold. The dollar and gold has been tied whether I like it or not.
There are special circumstances in the dollar now as the Fed has turned the light on domestic QE. I cannot see a significant dollar rally as a result. I also cannot see gold doing worse than chopping into the $1700 range.
If there is anything correct to his bearish prediction, which I doubt, it would take this action to a chop between $1650-1764, but I think we are now moving into the $1700-2111 range.
Martin Armstrong is the master at the long term cyclical events. To abandon gold now to try and buy it cheaper in 60 to 90 days with the world of finance in the condition it is in, is in my mind MADNESS.
Sincerely,
Jim
AGGRESSIVE CHINESE BUYING to SPIKE GOLD PRICE
Today billionaire Eric Sprott told King World News the Chinese cannot continue to buy gold as aggressively as they have been without there being a dramatic increase in the price. Eric Sprott, Chairman of Sprott Asset Management, had this to say about Chinese purchases of gold and the recent announcement that Iranian oil will be acquired using gold: “There are two things I think are important about that. One, it’s a statement that gold is a currency. That is by far the most important thing. I think the other thing is, if it actually transpires that way, what does it mean for the demand for gold? Because now it’s considered currency, it’s, in essence, your working capital. You have to have it. It’s like a store, you have to have money in the till.”
Eric Sprott continues:
“So it’s obviously going to increase the demand for gold and we have seen some data that China has been a rather large buyer of gold. People will consider it a currency and it has to necessitate more buying. You know, Eric, I think one of the really interesting things that happened was the imports of gold into China, from Hong Kong, which always were less than 20 tons a month, all of the sudden, beginning about 5 months ago, went 20 (tons), 30, 40, 80 and in November 102 tons. 102 tons is a staggering number.
The world mines, excluding China, less than 200 tons a month. China cannot continue to buy 102 tons and not have the price escalate dramatically.”
Sprott had this to say about today’s Fed announcement that it will leave rates at zero until late 2014: “Obviously it’s dramatic what has happened. It would appear there will be no restraint whatsoever on the part of the Fed. Assuming this announcement causes gold to break its declining wedge, which I believe it has, I expect some serious fireworks to the upside.”
When asked about his latest PSLV offering, Sprott stated, “We closed on $349 million. The underwriters did exercise the over-allotment in rather short order. We have committed to purchase it (silver). I think the deal was very successful. Obviously the premium has come down here (on PSLV), but it’s typically traded at a 16% premium and right now it’s at 8%. It takes a little while to digest the stock that was issued, but I’m hopeful we will get back to where we were.
We’ve all heard the reports that it’s pretty tight (in terms of supply). Every data point I see suggests people and institutions want to buy silver in the same dollar amount as they are buying gold.
We see the US Mint has sold 5.6 million ounces so far in January and I’m sure they will have a record high month. We’re selling as many dollars of silver coins as we are gold coins by the mint, which means we are selling 50 times more physical volume of silver. The availability (of silver to gold) is 7 to 1 in physical, but people are buying it at like 50 to 1. So something has to give there.
I would love to share with your viewers I was speaking with a company, this is a gold company, who is trying to organize a dividend payment being made in gold or silver and/or cash. Apparently 60% of the people (asked) were opting for the precious metal and half of those agreed to take it in silver. Again, another confirmation of silver buying. Our last tranche (in PSLV) we raised $349 million. Our last tranche in gold we raised $312 million. Again, one to one buying, so I’m pretty upbeat about where silver should be going.
As you know I always thought we would go back to the 16 to 1 ratio to gold, which means based on today’s prices silver should be $100. I really do believe silver was going to blow through $50 back in April/May when, all of the sudden, margin rate increases came through and one billion ounces of paper silver was sold that day.
I’m of the feeling that it will go back through $50 this year. Once it goes through $50 I think it could take on a whole new life and really energize itself. Longer-term my target is 16 to 1 to gold and I’m very upbeat on gold. I’m sure gold is going north of $2,000 this year, so obviously silver can get up to $150 in due course.”
When asked if there has been traction with regards to his call to silver companies to hold physical silver instead of cash, Sprott replied, “There has been traction. One company, Endeavor Silver, only sold 1/3 of their output in the December quarter because they thought the price was being depressed. They decided to wait and sell it at a different time.
We did have one silver producer actually participate in the PSLV (offering), which was very encouraging to me. I think we’re making a little bit of momentum on that front. Of course, I’ve given lots of chats to silver producers about what I think has gone on in the silver market. I think we’re making some progress.”
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