http://www.chngc.net/Main/D_JYSC/ShowDetail_3914.shtml
4月18日，上海黃金交易所黃金交易品種再度刷新歷史新高。其中，黃金延期AU（T+D）收報311.80元/克，較前一交易日結算價漲1.95元/克。白銀延期AG（T+D）當日也創出歷史新高，收盤報9228元/千克，較前一交易日結算價漲247元/千克。黃金白銀價格在上周小幅調整後再度上行。
國內金銀價格屢創新高，與國際市場表現密切關聯。 4月6日至9日，紐約黃金期貨價格連續4個交易日創下歷史新高；在上週的交易中，紐約期銀價格上漲了7.6%，創下自2月份以來的最高週漲幅度。
金銀價格快速上漲，主要是貨幣現象導致的
“黃金白銀價格快速上漲，主要是貨幣現象導致的，而非經濟增長因素帶來的。”海通期貨研究所所長郭洪鈞博士說，2008年，黃金期貨的價格在每盎司682—800美元之間，而現在達到了每盎司1475美元，是國際金融危機時期的一倍。但是，經濟的複蘇並沒有出現一倍的增長。
各國的經濟增長在國際金融危機後顯著放慢，至今沒有達到危機前的水平。股市也印證了這一觀點。目前，美國標準普爾指數只有1344點，而危機前的2007年10月為1576點。德國的DAX指數金融危機前的2007年7月至年底為8100點左右，但到2009年只有3594點。各國股市指數大體如此，美國、德國、日本、中國等都沒有達到全球金融危機前的最高點。
“但是，與這種經濟增長緩慢的現像不同，大宗商品價格卻紛紛上漲，並屢屢達到了歷史新高。”郭洪鈞分析，“不僅是黃金白銀，銅、鐵礦石、石油等大宗商品的價格也都快速上漲，倫敦銅的價格以前只有2800美元一噸，而現在達9800美元一噸。中國銅價也由危機時期每噸2萬元，上漲到現在的每噸近8萬元的價格。這表明，價格的上漲並不是真實需求拉動的，而是貨幣現象。”
政局變動、石油價走高也導致金銀上漲
國金期貨總經理助理江明德分析，黃金白銀的上漲根源還在於美元的持續貶值。儘管中國已開始收緊流動性，但是，世界範圍的流動性依然氾濫。一方面，美國實行量化寬鬆的貨幣政策，貨幣發行量大了，致使美元貶值。另一方面，歐洲開始加息，進入加息週期，因此，美元兌歐元進一步貶值。這進一步降低了紙幣信用，使得以美元定價的黃金白銀等貴金屬開始上漲。 “這是抗通脹的需要，目的是迴避貨幣的進一步貶值。”江明德說。
石油價格上漲也導致了金價上漲，這是另一個誘因。江明德分析，黃金與石油存在一定的比價關係，一般而言，一盎司黃金相當於9至11桶原油的價格。國際金融危機時，原油價格最低只有40美元一桶。去年，黃金一路上漲，但石油沒怎麼漲。去年底，黃金價格正要下行，石油價格卻又開始拉升，一路走高。這使得黃金價格再次調頭上行，並帶動其他貴金屬上漲。
黃金價格已持續11年上漲，其中，每次拉升都與國際政局動盪和危機有關。而埃及、利比亞、敘利亞等中東地區國家的動盪，加上日本大地震後的重建貨幣超發，以及美國政府的財政危機，美元信用貶值，再次提升了人們對紙幣價值的擔憂，從而謀求黃金避險。
銀價暴漲的泡沫特徵明顯
值得關注的是，白銀的漲幅高於黃金。從去年9月初來算，白銀在差不多半年的時間內實現翻番，而同期黃金漲幅僅為13.6%。今年以來，國內白銀價格以每公斤6660元開盤，最高已觸及每公斤9228元，僅在4月的9個交易日內，每公斤白銀淨漲1000多元。
銀河期貨金融市場部總經理蔣東義表示，白銀在歷史上曾長期作為貨幣使用，有著與黃金類似的金融屬性，黃金上漲的因素，也成為白銀的上漲因素。此外，白銀與黃金最大的不同是其商品屬性更強，因為它是多個工業領域的重要原材料，在全球經濟復甦背景下，工業需求增加，導致白銀商品屬性“靈光再現”，這在一定程度上也提高了銀價。
銀價的上漲助長了“白銀未來潛力無限”的論調，“炒作”再度盛行，具有明顯的泡沫特徵。業內專家指出，白銀投資雖然很有盈利想像空間，但投資中的一些問題和風險，投資者更應該冷靜關注。
首先，白銀價格波動大雖然有利於套利，獲利空間較大，但這同時也是雙刃劍，有暴漲就難免有暴跌，尤其是一些槓桿交易，大幅回調風險並非普通投資者能承受。
其次，國內白銀投資渠道依然偏少，多以實物白銀投資產品和上海黃金交易所現貨白銀延期產品為主，而且更關鍵的是白銀投資回購變現渠道不如黃金暢通方便，變現成本也要高得多。
第三，白銀價格風險依然很大，市場上“炒風”已盛，投資者要注意“避風頭”。從目前銀價來看，48美元的“心理關口”已經不遠，而且金銀比價已接近35倍，小於歷史上長期保持的40倍左右，所以銀價在爆炒後下跌風險依然存在。
2011年4月24日星期日
China Imports 245 Tonnes Of Silver In February And Qatar SWF “Interested” In Buying Silver
http://www.zerohedge.com
From GoldCore
China Imports 245 Tonnes of Silver in February and Qatar SWF “Interested” in Buying Silver
Gold and silver rose on the open in Asia and have continued those gains so far in European trading with the Libyan military conflict leading to a safe haven bid and falls in the dollar and yen. The all time and multiyear nominal dollar highs set on March 7th ($1,444.95/oz and $36.75/oz) look set to be challenged as gold is less than 1% from its record high and silver less than 2% from its nominal recent high.
Safe haven demand continues especially in Asia and macroeconomic and geopolitical risk remains elevated. The tragedy in Japan and possibility of an ecological catastrophe has clouded the economic picture and created even more uncertainty which will lead to continuing physical demand.
In Japan, many ATMs have not been working for days now and this is leading to safe haven demand for gold. Should efforts to sort out the ATM problem not be resolved this week it could out pressure on the already strained Japanese financial system.
Iran and Other Central Banks Secretly Increasing Gold Reserves
News that Iran and other nations with large dollar currency reserves have greatly increased their gold reserves (see News) will not come as a surprise to our readers. It stands to reason that they would given the degree of exposure which most creditor nations have to the U.S. dollar. It also stands to reason as some of them do not have cordial relations with Washington and may be reluctant to fund the U.S. continuing imprudent fiscal policies.
Gold was not the only precious metal being bought with the FT reporting that the sovereign wealth fund of Qatar, the Qatar Investment Authority is reportedly interested in acquiring both and gold and silver.
The QIA has assets estimated to exceed $65 billion and this one sovereign wealth fund alone could easily corner the very small physical silver market which is worth some $36 billion at today’s prices (1 billion ounces of above ground, investment grade refined silver bullion multiply by $36 per ounce).
China Imports 245 Tonnes of Silver in February and Qatar SWF “Interested” in Buying Silver
Central banks and sovereign wealth funds with massive exposure to the dollar, such as the Russians and Chinese, are not going to shout from the roof tops their intentions to diversify into gold and silver bullion as this would lead to a surge in bullion prices and an even greater depreciation of their dollar holdings.
China imported 245.6 metric tons of silver in February. The figure is close to the 260.6 metric tons imported in February 2010 and suggests that the Chinese are more than willing to buy silver at over $30 per ounce. It also suggests that the record Chinese imports of 3,475,394 kilos seen in 2010 (a massive four fold increase from 2009) may be again attained in 2011.
This demand is likely from the private sector rather than official but it is quite possible that there has been official buying in recent months. This may have come from the Chinese State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) which manages nearly $3 trillion of currency reserves. The Chinese has experienced the collapse of a paper currency and hyperinflation as recently as 1949 and therefore appreciate the value of gold (and silver) as currencies which cannot be debased.
NEWS
(Financial Times) -- Iran bought gold to cut dollar exposure
Iran has bought large amounts of gold in the international market, according to a senior Bank of England official, in a sign of how growing political pressure has driven Tehran to reduce its exposure to the US dollar.
Andrew Bailey, head of banking at the Bank of England, told an American official that the central bank had observed “significant moves by Iran to purchase gold”, according to a US diplomatic cable obtained by WikiLeaks and seen by the Financial Times.
Mr Bailey said the gold buying “was an attempt by Iran to protect its reserves from risk of seizure”.
Market observers believe Tehran has been one of the biggest buyers of bullion over the past decade after China, Russia and India, and is among the 20 largest holders of gold reserves.
They estimate it holds more than 300 tonnes of gold, up from 168.4 tonnes in 1996, the date of the most recent International Monetary Fund data.
The cable, dated June 2006, is the first official confirmation of Tehran’s buying.
Last year central banks became net buyers of bullion after 22 years of large sales, helping drive gold prices to all-time nominal highs. Trades by central banks are often kept secret.
Bankers said other Middle Eastern countries had also been quietly adding to gold holdings to diversify away from the dollar amid political tensions and volatility in currency markets.
“The totality of central bank reserves is not what is reported to the IMF,” said Philip Klapwijk, executive chairman of GFMS, a precious metals consultancy. “There’s probably another 10 per cent on top of that.”
Cables obtained by WikiLeaks cite Jordan’s prime minister as saying the central bank was “instructed to increase its holdings” of gold, and a Qatar Investment Authority official as saying the QIA was interested in buying gold and silver.
“There is no question some Middle Eastern countries are very interested in buying gold,” said George Milling-Stanley, head of government affairs at the mining industry-backed World Gold Council.
In the past two months, the political unrest in the Middle East has helped propel gold to a record price of $1,444.40 a troy ounce.
The Bank of England declined to comment on the cables, but did not dispute their contents. The central banks of Iran and Jordan and the QIA did not respond to requests for comment.QIA did not respond to requests for comment.
(MarketWatch) -- Mizuho's ATM crash may last to Tuesday or longer
Mizuho Bank's system-wide breakdown, which has led to millions of Japanese ATM users being unable to withdraw cash or receive salary payments, could have far-reaching implications and put a wider strain on Japan's banking system if its efforts to recover from the glitch fail this week.
The outages have affected so many people that Japan's Financial Services Agency, the nation's regulatory watchdog, is considering disciplining Mizuho, a person familiar with the matter said. The FSA was not immediately available for comment.
Mizuho is now facing its biggest system crisis in nearly a decade, amid a surge in demand for cash on hand as fears intensify from possible radiation leaks from a nuclear plant damaged by Friday's earthquake, coupled with the fact that most companies are increasing transactions toward the end of Japanese fiscal year through March 31.
The system crash, which Mizuho blamed on excessive deposit activity following the devastating earthquake, also comes at a time when other banks and industries are struggling to cope with intermittent power outages around the greater Tokyo region. Most banks have been forced to temporarily shut down some of their ATMs due to blackouts, while others are voluntarily shutting down their ATMs to help save power.
The retail banking unit of Mizuho Financial Group Inc. (8411.TO), Japan's third largest bank by market capitalization, said it aims to fully restore the system after the three-day weekend through Monday, but it remains unclear whether operations will return to normal operations on Tuesday.
On Sunday, Mizuho had operational level talks with its archrivals, the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ and Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp., over how they could help Mizuho with transaction settlements, in case Mizuho's troubles drag on, another person familiar with the matter said. Underscoring the gravity of the situation, the FSA has asked Mizuho's rivals to help it through this crisis.
The two lenders are considering shouldering some of Mizuho's load of unprocessed settlements. BTMU and SMBC, the core banking units of Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. and Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp. are looking into how many companies' payments they can handle without overburdening their own systems, the person said. Both banks were not immediately available for comment.
The lender's system glitch, which occurred from Tuesday, affected more than 1 million cash transfer orders worth about Y830 billion ($10.3 billion) so far.
270,000 transactions that were placed at the bank earlier this week, were processed, but 890,000 transactions including salary payments have been not yet processed, Mizuho said Sunday.
All of its 38,000 ATMs at its branches and convenience stores have been shut down between Saturday and Monday to speed up the system's recovery. In its place, Mizuho extended operating hours through the three-day weekend through Monday at its 440 branches for account holders whose salary payments have been delayed by the system problem, allowing them to withdraw up to Y100,000.
Mizuho Bank President Satoru Nishibori earlier said that the bank is still investigating the locations of the branches where the problems originated and establishing why the transactions failed to process, but determining the reason will take some time.
The breakdown is the most serious faced by Mizuho since 2002, when it experienced similar problems that led to delays in processing 2.5 million public utility payments and other account settlements.
(Bloomberg) -- Gold Climbs in New York as Allied Aircraft Attack Libyan Targets
Gold climbed for a fourth day in New York as investors sought a protection of wealth from air strikes in Libya and on concern unrest may spread in the region. Allied officials said two days of missile and aircraft strikes have effectively grounded Muammar Qaddafi’s air force.
The leader denounced the coalition allied against him, which includes the U.S., the U.K. and France, as “the party of Satan.” Yemen’s President Ali Abdullah Saleh fired his cabinet yesterday and faced a growing internal revolt. Gold futures reached a record $1,445.70 an ounce on March 7.
As “tensions in the Middle East and North Africa region increase, the precious metals, particularly gold and silver, could be poised for further gains as investors seek to diversify towards safe-haven asset types,” James Moore, an analyst at TheBullionDesk.com in London, said in a report.
(Bloomberg) -- China’s Silver Imports in February Were 245.6 TonsChina’s imports of silver in February were 245.6 metric tons, the customs agency said. Imports of platinum were 7.3 tons and palladium shipments were 3.3 tons, it said today.
From GoldCore
China Imports 245 Tonnes of Silver in February and Qatar SWF “Interested” in Buying Silver
Gold and silver rose on the open in Asia and have continued those gains so far in European trading with the Libyan military conflict leading to a safe haven bid and falls in the dollar and yen. The all time and multiyear nominal dollar highs set on March 7th ($1,444.95/oz and $36.75/oz) look set to be challenged as gold is less than 1% from its record high and silver less than 2% from its nominal recent high.
Safe haven demand continues especially in Asia and macroeconomic and geopolitical risk remains elevated. The tragedy in Japan and possibility of an ecological catastrophe has clouded the economic picture and created even more uncertainty which will lead to continuing physical demand.
In Japan, many ATMs have not been working for days now and this is leading to safe haven demand for gold. Should efforts to sort out the ATM problem not be resolved this week it could out pressure on the already strained Japanese financial system.
News that Iran and other nations with large dollar currency reserves have greatly increased their gold reserves (see News) will not come as a surprise to our readers. It stands to reason that they would given the degree of exposure which most creditor nations have to the U.S. dollar. It also stands to reason as some of them do not have cordial relations with Washington and may be reluctant to fund the U.S. continuing imprudent fiscal policies.
Gold was not the only precious metal being bought with the FT reporting that the sovereign wealth fund of Qatar, the Qatar Investment Authority is reportedly interested in acquiring both and gold and silver.
The QIA has assets estimated to exceed $65 billion and this one sovereign wealth fund alone could easily corner the very small physical silver market which is worth some $36 billion at today’s prices (1 billion ounces of above ground, investment grade refined silver bullion multiply by $36 per ounce).
China Imports 245 Tonnes of Silver in February and Qatar SWF “Interested” in Buying Silver
Central banks and sovereign wealth funds with massive exposure to the dollar, such as the Russians and Chinese, are not going to shout from the roof tops their intentions to diversify into gold and silver bullion as this would lead to a surge in bullion prices and an even greater depreciation of their dollar holdings.
China imported 245.6 metric tons of silver in February. The figure is close to the 260.6 metric tons imported in February 2010 and suggests that the Chinese are more than willing to buy silver at over $30 per ounce. It also suggests that the record Chinese imports of 3,475,394 kilos seen in 2010 (a massive four fold increase from 2009) may be again attained in 2011.
This demand is likely from the private sector rather than official but it is quite possible that there has been official buying in recent months. This may have come from the Chinese State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) which manages nearly $3 trillion of currency reserves. The Chinese has experienced the collapse of a paper currency and hyperinflation as recently as 1949 and therefore appreciate the value of gold (and silver) as currencies which cannot be debased.
NEWS
(Financial Times) -- Iran bought gold to cut dollar exposure
Iran has bought large amounts of gold in the international market, according to a senior Bank of England official, in a sign of how growing political pressure has driven Tehran to reduce its exposure to the US dollar.
Andrew Bailey, head of banking at the Bank of England, told an American official that the central bank had observed “significant moves by Iran to purchase gold”, according to a US diplomatic cable obtained by WikiLeaks and seen by the Financial Times.
Mr Bailey said the gold buying “was an attempt by Iran to protect its reserves from risk of seizure”.
Market observers believe Tehran has been one of the biggest buyers of bullion over the past decade after China, Russia and India, and is among the 20 largest holders of gold reserves.
They estimate it holds more than 300 tonnes of gold, up from 168.4 tonnes in 1996, the date of the most recent International Monetary Fund data.
The cable, dated June 2006, is the first official confirmation of Tehran’s buying.
Last year central banks became net buyers of bullion after 22 years of large sales, helping drive gold prices to all-time nominal highs. Trades by central banks are often kept secret.
Bankers said other Middle Eastern countries had also been quietly adding to gold holdings to diversify away from the dollar amid political tensions and volatility in currency markets.
“The totality of central bank reserves is not what is reported to the IMF,” said Philip Klapwijk, executive chairman of GFMS, a precious metals consultancy. “There’s probably another 10 per cent on top of that.”
Cables obtained by WikiLeaks cite Jordan’s prime minister as saying the central bank was “instructed to increase its holdings” of gold, and a Qatar Investment Authority official as saying the QIA was interested in buying gold and silver.
“There is no question some Middle Eastern countries are very interested in buying gold,” said George Milling-Stanley, head of government affairs at the mining industry-backed World Gold Council.
In the past two months, the political unrest in the Middle East has helped propel gold to a record price of $1,444.40 a troy ounce.
The Bank of England declined to comment on the cables, but did not dispute their contents. The central banks of Iran and Jordan and the QIA did not respond to requests for comment.QIA did not respond to requests for comment.
(MarketWatch) -- Mizuho's ATM crash may last to Tuesday or longer
Mizuho Bank's system-wide breakdown, which has led to millions of Japanese ATM users being unable to withdraw cash or receive salary payments, could have far-reaching implications and put a wider strain on Japan's banking system if its efforts to recover from the glitch fail this week.
The outages have affected so many people that Japan's Financial Services Agency, the nation's regulatory watchdog, is considering disciplining Mizuho, a person familiar with the matter said. The FSA was not immediately available for comment.
Mizuho is now facing its biggest system crisis in nearly a decade, amid a surge in demand for cash on hand as fears intensify from possible radiation leaks from a nuclear plant damaged by Friday's earthquake, coupled with the fact that most companies are increasing transactions toward the end of Japanese fiscal year through March 31.
The system crash, which Mizuho blamed on excessive deposit activity following the devastating earthquake, also comes at a time when other banks and industries are struggling to cope with intermittent power outages around the greater Tokyo region. Most banks have been forced to temporarily shut down some of their ATMs due to blackouts, while others are voluntarily shutting down their ATMs to help save power.
The retail banking unit of Mizuho Financial Group Inc. (8411.TO), Japan's third largest bank by market capitalization, said it aims to fully restore the system after the three-day weekend through Monday, but it remains unclear whether operations will return to normal operations on Tuesday.
On Sunday, Mizuho had operational level talks with its archrivals, the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ and Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp., over how they could help Mizuho with transaction settlements, in case Mizuho's troubles drag on, another person familiar with the matter said. Underscoring the gravity of the situation, the FSA has asked Mizuho's rivals to help it through this crisis.
The two lenders are considering shouldering some of Mizuho's load of unprocessed settlements. BTMU and SMBC, the core banking units of Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. and Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp. are looking into how many companies' payments they can handle without overburdening their own systems, the person said. Both banks were not immediately available for comment.
The lender's system glitch, which occurred from Tuesday, affected more than 1 million cash transfer orders worth about Y830 billion ($10.3 billion) so far.
270,000 transactions that were placed at the bank earlier this week, were processed, but 890,000 transactions including salary payments have been not yet processed, Mizuho said Sunday.
All of its 38,000 ATMs at its branches and convenience stores have been shut down between Saturday and Monday to speed up the system's recovery. In its place, Mizuho extended operating hours through the three-day weekend through Monday at its 440 branches for account holders whose salary payments have been delayed by the system problem, allowing them to withdraw up to Y100,000.
Mizuho Bank President Satoru Nishibori earlier said that the bank is still investigating the locations of the branches where the problems originated and establishing why the transactions failed to process, but determining the reason will take some time.
The breakdown is the most serious faced by Mizuho since 2002, when it experienced similar problems that led to delays in processing 2.5 million public utility payments and other account settlements.
(Bloomberg) -- Gold Climbs in New York as Allied Aircraft Attack Libyan Targets
Gold climbed for a fourth day in New York as investors sought a protection of wealth from air strikes in Libya and on concern unrest may spread in the region. Allied officials said two days of missile and aircraft strikes have effectively grounded Muammar Qaddafi’s air force.
The leader denounced the coalition allied against him, which includes the U.S., the U.K. and France, as “the party of Satan.” Yemen’s President Ali Abdullah Saleh fired his cabinet yesterday and faced a growing internal revolt. Gold futures reached a record $1,445.70 an ounce on March 7.
As “tensions in the Middle East and North Africa region increase, the precious metals, particularly gold and silver, could be poised for further gains as investors seek to diversify towards safe-haven asset types,” James Moore, an analyst at TheBullionDesk.com in London, said in a report.
(Bloomberg) -- China’s Silver Imports in February Were 245.6 TonsChina’s imports of silver in February were 245.6 metric tons, the customs agency said. Imports of platinum were 7.3 tons and palladium shipments were 3.3 tons, it said today.
ROTHSCHILDS FINISH OFF GADDAFI
轉貼來自168綜合Fourm
Re: 金價點睇 II?
好多人認為利比亞事件係由"黑金"引起, 外國有傳媒就話原因其實係"黃金",因GADDAFI 支持用黃金取代法幣.
http://youtu.be/rgdn0bNsMkQ
再睇睇狂人GADDAFI,原來佢都係金甲蟲, 佢D金足以請僱傭軍打丈一年. http://www.smh.com.au/world/gaddafi-sit ... 1c4cj.html
姑勿論GADDAFI係唔係金甲蟲, 打仗與黃金有冇關係, 上面條片個訪者,真係夠姜,直指黃金取代法幣係同銀行及政府對着幹.
香港地,資訊及言論都 "好" 自由, 就係冇人夠姜起電視o甘講..........
http://youtu.be/rgdn0bNsMkQ
再睇睇狂人GADDAFI,原來佢都係金甲蟲, 佢D金足以請僱傭軍打丈一年. http://www.smh.com.au/world/gaddafi-sit ... 1c4cj.html
姑勿論GADDAFI係唔係金甲蟲, 打仗與黃金有冇關係, 上面條片個訪者,真係夠姜,直指黃金取代法幣係同銀行及政府對着幹.
香港地,資訊及言論都 "好" 自由, 就係冇人夠姜起電視o甘講..........
金銀強勢或繼續，但需留意潛在修正
發佈時間：2011年4月21日下午2:09（美國東部時間）
作者：黛比·卡爾森
來源：Kitco金拓中文網 www.kitco.cn
（Kitco金拓訊）——金價本周升至1,500美元/盎司的水平位，並且銀價也創下新的數十年高點，原因是美元走軟與持有貴金屬的普遍意願支撐了價格。
這些市場的長期前景是強勁的，但是一些分析師表示黃金在繼續上升趨勢之前可能會迎來一次潛在的短暫回調。
紐約商品交易所Comex6月黃金期貨今天收於1,503.80 美元，本週上揚1.18%（注：Comex市場週五休市），交易價位一度高達1,509.60美元，同時5月期銀（本週）上漲7.6%，收於46.059美元/盎司。它的交易價位一度高達46.385美元。
在萬眾期盼之下，黃金期貨價格低調地越過了1,500美元/盎司的大關，該位置幾乎是每位市場觀察員在先前一段時間內的預測目標位。在市場迎來一個為期3日的周末前，金價於週四略微上升到該位置之上。金融市場週五因耶穌受難日假期而休市。
加拿大皇家銀行旗下一個部門的副總裁兼貴金屬策略師喬治·格羅表示，他很驚訝沒有看到金銀市場的獲利回吐活動一直延續到這一長周末之前。他說：“那對我來說意味著賣家沒有露面，同時買家也害怕在周末聽到任何負面新聞。”
美元的嚴重疲軟是金銀價格上升的部分原因，因為美元兌若干貨幣都跌至今年的新低。格羅表示，問題是金銀的價格方程式是否已將世界全部的不幸事件作為因素考慮在內，而他認為這一答案是否定的。鑑於中東動盪問題的持續和歐元區引發的擔憂，他說：“巨大的牛市仍然存在。”
他說：“黃金和白銀繼續是一種政經晴雨表。”
我們透過參與者對價外看漲期權的買進可以判斷出期貨市場的看漲情緒在上升。格羅指出，市場對8月白銀看漲期權（執行價為50美元/盎司）有濃厚的興趣，並且12月（執行價為1,800美元的）黃金看漲期權也得到市場的強烈關注。購買看漲期權屬於看多的交易。
黃金和白銀可能會繼續走高，至少在下周初期是如此，因為格羅表示勢頭交易者也正參與到這些貴金屬的反彈中。他說：“未平倉合約的數量正在上升，成交量正在放大，移動平均線在走高，我們得到的收盤價也更高。所有這一切都吸引著勢頭交易者。”
雖然黃金的長期走勢是毋庸置疑的，但是許多分析師都指出黃金最近的價格模式可能會在價格創下新高後迎來一次溫和的修正。
在線時事通訊《莫里森看市》（Morrison on the Markets）的創始人兼編輯肯恩·莫里森表示：“這一次會有不同嗎？我對此表示懷疑。黃金價格可能很快會急劇回落至1,480美元（左右），而它會在那裡再次找到支撐。”
下週將發生的主要事件將是4月26-27日召開的聯邦公開市場委員會（FOMC）。這將是美聯邦公開市場委員會做出相關決定後，美聯儲主席伯南克第一次發表聲明。雖然利率將不太可能上調，但是人們對伯南克將會說什麼還是有很大的興趣。
“我們認為不會出現任何大的變動，但是當然如果有什麼變化的話，那麼將會是因為美元正在大幅的下跌。我認為現在所有人都把目光投向了二次量化寬鬆，並且在拭目以待會不會出現三次量化寬鬆，”Coby Lamson資本管理共同創立者羅恩·科比表示。
莫里森表示短期內我們應該關注美元。他說道因為這麼多的交易商看跌美元，因此在該會議使美元反彈之前，會出現一些獲利了結。
“現在任何的催化劑都會使美元出現反彈。我預計下週的FOMC會議將會是這一催化劑，不過美元的任一反彈對黃金和白銀來說都會是不利的，”他表示。
West Cooper資產管理總裁法爾科表示黃金和白銀可能會面臨一些獲利了結和修正，不過長期的趨勢依然是上漲。 “我不知道有什麼會阻止這一情況。甚至白銀現在也有些表現失常，”他說道。
法爾科表示我認為金價可能會達到1,600美元，年底可能會達到2,000美元。近期內，黃金和白銀走勢可能會與公司的收益相關，因為公司正在報告他們第一季度的收益和虧損。這將為貴金屬提供一些日常的指導。
考慮到目前為止那些支撐貴金屬的因素還沒有改變，因此並沒有理由認為這一上漲的趨勢會發生改變，法爾科說道。事實上，由於一些投資者依然還沒有進入市場，金價上漲至1,500美元將激發新的購買。人們看到了這一反彈，並且認為已經錯過了之前的機會，肯定不想錯過以後的機會了。
現在總的來說是一次很困難的投資，他補充說。 “沒有人有這一環境中的經驗。甚至那些在市場中待了50年的人，他們也從來沒有看到過這樣一種情況…你必須回到19世紀80年代才會看到類似的情況，”他表示。
華府「犧牲」美滙托股債
華府「犧牲」美滙托股債 - 潘國光
標 準普爾表示由於對美國削赤及減債前景不樂觀，故調低其信貸展望至「負面」。本欄讀者應該不會感驚訝，在過去的一年多，筆者已不斷提及美國潛在的負債及信貸 風險已直逼甚至超越南歐諸國水平。事實上，美國聯邦政府負債在這幾天至幾星期內將觸及14.3萬億美元的發債上限，相信在未來的兩至三個月，國會及兩黨將 繼續上演削赤爭辯之鬧劇。
標普下調美國信貸展望，將有利共和黨及茶黨等所提倡的削赤方案，同時亦令總統奧巴馬左右為難。預料國會就財政預算的辯論，將被一再拖長，發債上限料再次被提高，惟最終就未來幾年達成的所謂削赤金額，將只是微不足道。
上 周美股就標普調低美國信貸展望的第一個反應是下跌，市場覺得，若國會真的大刀闊斧地削赤，將嚴重打擊經濟增長前景。但後來再想深一層，白宮及國會現在談論 的所謂削減開支，大部份都是關乎2015年以後的預算，在2011年起的5年內，赤字將仍維持在過萬億美元的歷史水平。
因此，華府續托股市，是維護當前經濟復蘇的必然選擇。因為有經濟增長就有繼續花錢的空間，但若同時要維持國債市場的正常運作，唯一辦法是「犧牲」美元滙價，透過貨幣貶值減少實質負債、引發通脹，從而製造資產價格上升的假象。
有評論指，聯儲局於六月後可能會暫停推出新一輪量化寬鬆政策(QE3)，而只把之前QE1及QE2所買入的債券續期，令未來每月大約仍有170億美元的到期金額可以用來支持新發債券，即所謂QE2.5。
推QE3機會仍在
然而，筆者認為此規模並不足以滿足現時每月至少1200億美元的發債需求。正如債券大王格羅斯所言，美國國債說穿了只不過是一個超級的「龐氏騙局」。
因此，除非聯儲局打算透過海外賬戶在未來數月秘密繼續印鈔買債，否則，現時看來，六月後隨即需要推出QE3的機會仍不能完全被抹煞，難怪無論外圍發生甚麼大小事情，近日美滙走勢還是依然故我地一直下跌，筆者相信，美元在年底前出現信心危機式的崩盤風險已變得越來越大了。
標 準普爾表示由於對美國削赤及減債前景不樂觀，故調低其信貸展望至「負面」。本欄讀者應該不會感驚訝，在過去的一年多，筆者已不斷提及美國潛在的負債及信貸 風險已直逼甚至超越南歐諸國水平。事實上，美國聯邦政府負債在這幾天至幾星期內將觸及14.3萬億美元的發債上限，相信在未來的兩至三個月，國會及兩黨將 繼續上演削赤爭辯之鬧劇。
標普下調美國信貸展望，將有利共和黨及茶黨等所提倡的削赤方案，同時亦令總統奧巴馬左右為難。預料國會就財政預算的辯論，將被一再拖長，發債上限料再次被提高，惟最終就未來幾年達成的所謂削赤金額，將只是微不足道。
上 周美股就標普調低美國信貸展望的第一個反應是下跌，市場覺得，若國會真的大刀闊斧地削赤，將嚴重打擊經濟增長前景。但後來再想深一層，白宮及國會現在談論 的所謂削減開支，大部份都是關乎2015年以後的預算，在2011年起的5年內，赤字將仍維持在過萬億美元的歷史水平。
因此，華府續托股市，是維護當前經濟復蘇的必然選擇。因為有經濟增長就有繼續花錢的空間，但若同時要維持國債市場的正常運作，唯一辦法是「犧牲」美元滙價，透過貨幣貶值減少實質負債、引發通脹，從而製造資產價格上升的假象。
有評論指，聯儲局於六月後可能會暫停推出新一輪量化寬鬆政策(QE3)，而只把之前QE1及QE2所買入的債券續期，令未來每月大約仍有170億美元的到期金額可以用來支持新發債券，即所謂QE2.5。
推QE3機會仍在
然而，筆者認為此規模並不足以滿足現時每月至少1200億美元的發債需求。正如債券大王格羅斯所言，美國國債說穿了只不過是一個超級的「龐氏騙局」。
因此，除非聯儲局打算透過海外賬戶在未來數月秘密繼續印鈔買債，否則，現時看來，六月後隨即需要推出QE3的機會仍不能完全被抹煞，難怪無論外圍發生甚麼大小事情，近日美滙走勢還是依然故我地一直下跌，筆者相信，美元在年底前出現信心危機式的崩盤風險已變得越來越大了。
奧巴馬籲兩黨攜手削赤
東方日報
美國總統奧巴馬為期三日的削赤方案推銷之旅周四「曲終人散」，而他昨在加州帕洛阿爾托的Facebook總部舉行市民大會（town-hall meeting）時坦言，現時美國財赤劣況已惡化至不能忍受的地步，正面臨「關鍵時刻」，呼籲共和民主兩黨務必盡快就削赤方案達成共識，否則美國財政狀況 勢岌岌可危，甚至有出現債務違約的風險。
正當華府對如何削赤大感頭痛之際，彭博社經濟師佩恩及巴克利發表報告「獻計」指，在經濟成本高企下，容許美國經濟出現如七十年代時年均8.1%的高通脹，或是美國削債方法之一，甚至較以加稅及削減開支等方法削赤更為有利。
上述報告估計，若華府不採取削債措施，料其財赤佔國內生產總值（GDP）比例，將於二○二○年時由年底的69.4%升至84.9%，但假如美國容許高通脹，料上述比例將於二○二○年時降至61.8%。
另美國經濟發展委員會發表聲明指，一群商界領袖相當支持美國盡快推出長遠削赤方案，並認為所有稅務及開支政策均可當作削赤計劃的「籌碼」，而且不會對之加以反對，或反映商界組織亦認為，華府盡快制訂削赤計劃是當務之急。
美國總統奧巴馬為期三日的削赤方案推銷之旅周四「曲終人散」，而他昨在加州帕洛阿爾托的Facebook總部舉行市民大會（town-hall meeting）時坦言，現時美國財赤劣況已惡化至不能忍受的地步，正面臨「關鍵時刻」，呼籲共和民主兩黨務必盡快就削赤方案達成共識，否則美國財政狀況 勢岌岌可危，甚至有出現債務違約的風險。
經濟師倡採高通脹減債
對於早前由眾議院預算委員會主席瑞安（Paul Ryan）制訂的預算案，奧巴馬批評指其預算案內容頗為急進，有點「目光短淺」，並非如外界形容般「有膽識」。正當華府對如何削赤大感頭痛之際，彭博社經濟師佩恩及巴克利發表報告「獻計」指，在經濟成本高企下，容許美國經濟出現如七十年代時年均8.1%的高通脹，或是美國削債方法之一，甚至較以加稅及削減開支等方法削赤更為有利。
上述報告估計，若華府不採取削債措施，料其財赤佔國內生產總值（GDP）比例，將於二○二○年時由年底的69.4%升至84.9%，但假如美國容許高通脹，料上述比例將於二○二○年時降至61.8%。
另美國經濟發展委員會發表聲明指，一群商界領袖相當支持美國盡快推出長遠削赤方案，並認為所有稅務及開支政策均可當作削赤計劃的「籌碼」，而且不會對之加以反對，或反映商界組織亦認為，華府盡快制訂削赤計劃是當務之急。
無人想孭鑊, 最好加限額喇.....Obama話後悔當初反對raise debt limits, 唔知選民會唔會都後悔選佢做總統呢?
http://voguishwoman.blogspot.com/2011/04/us-default-could-be-doomsday-option-for.html#comments
China and other countries that now hold about 50 percent of all U.S. Treasury securities could start dumping them, further pushing up interest rates and swelling the national debt. It would be a vicious cycle of higher and higher interest rates and more and more debt.
WASHINGTON (AP) — The United States has never defaulted on its debt and Democrats and Republicans say they don't want it to happen now. But with partisan acrimony running at fever pitch, and Democrats and Republicans so far apart on how to tame the deficit, the unthinkable is suddenly being pondered.
The government now borrows about 42 cents of every dollar it spends. Imagine that one day soon, the borrowing slams up against the current debt limit ceiling of $14.3 trillion and Congress fails to raise it. The damage would ripple across the entire economy, eventually affecting nearly every American, and rocking global markets in the process.
A default would come if the government actually failed to fulfill a financial obligation, including repaying a loan or interest on that loan. The government borrows mostly by selling bonds to individuals and governments, with a promise to pay back the amount of the bond in a certain time period and agreeing to pay regular interest on that bond in the meantime.
Among the first directly affected would likely be money-market funds holding government securities, banks that buy bonds directly from the Federal Reserve and resell them to consumers, including pension and mutual funds; and the foreign investor community, which holds nearly half of all Treasury securities.
If the U.S. starts missing interest or principal payments, borrowers would demand higher and higher rates on new bonds, as they did with Greece, Portugal and other heavily indebted nations. Who wants to keep loaning money to a deadbeat nation that can't pay its bills?
At some point, the government would have to slash spending in other areas to make room for any further sales of Treasury bills and bonds. That could squeeze payments to federal contractors, and eventually even affect Social Security and other government benefit payments, as well as federal workers' paychecks.
A default would likely trigger another financial panic like the one in 2008 and plunge an economy still reeling from high joblessness and a battered housing market back into recession. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke calls failure to raise the debt limit "a recovery-ending event." U.S. stock markets would likely tank — devastating roughly half of U.S. households that own stocks, either individually or through 401(k) type retirement programs.
Eventually, the cost of most credit would rise — from business and consumer loans to home mortgages, auto financing and credit cards.
Continued stalemate could also further depress the value of the dollar and challenge the greenback's status as the world's prime "reserve currency."
China and other countries that now hold about 50 percent of all U.S. Treasury securities could start dumping them, further pushing up interest rates and swelling the national debt. It would be a vicious cycle of higher and higher interest rates and more and more debt.
The U.S. has long been the global standard for financial stability and creditworthiness, with Treasury securities seen as a fail-safe investment. But after the near-shutdown of the U.S. government and a new credit-rating report this week questioning the country's fiscal health, Treasury bills and bonds are losing luster.
If there is a debt limit deadlock, the government by this summer could find itself legally unable to borrow more money to pay its bills, beginning with interest on its debt and gradually extending to day-to-day federal operations. At some point, the government would have to decide which bills to pay and which to put aside.
The debt ceiling will be hit on or around May 16, the Treasury Department says. Unlike the threatened government shutdown, the impact would start slowly, but then build mightily until the damage would be so dire that few political leaders or economists even want to contemplate it. The day of reckoning could likely be delayed at least until early July with creative bookkeeping.
When the House first rejected the Bush administration's $600-billion bank bailout in September 2008, the Dow Jones industrials went into a dizzying 778-point tailspin. A whiff of a possible similar stock market collapse came on Monday with a sharp selloff on Wall Street when the Standard & Poors lowered its outlook on U.S. debt to "negative" from "stable," possibly a first step toward a possible downgrade of America's coveted AAA credit rating.
"We haven't downgraded it. We just said, if nothing happens, we may have to," said S&P chief economist David Wyss. He said a government default remains uncharted territory, "which is one reason why it's not a good idea to hit the debt ceiling."
"There's reason to worry," said Wyss. "But my best guess is that we sort of muddle through this. Cuts will be made, they'll be too little too late, but at least they will be enough to maintain a triple-A rating."
"It's another game of chicken. And this time there are Mack trucks going at each other, not bumper cars. This is a biggie," said American University political scientist James Thurber. But he predicted that, as in the past, "there will be an accommodation. They will avoid a crash."
Investment bank J.P. Morgan Chase recently concluded that any delay in making an interest or principal payments by the Treasury "even for a very short period of time" would have large "long-term adverse consequences for Treasury finances and the U.S. economy." The analysis is being circulated on Capitol Hill by supporters of raising the debt limit.
"If anyone wants to push that button, which I think would be catastrophic and unpredictable, I think they're crazy," JP Morgan CEO Jaime Dimon said recently of those seeking to block raising the debt limit.
House Speaker John Boehner and most other GOP leaders agree on the need to raise the debt limit — and don't want to be held responsible for a new financial meltdown. Still, they want Obama to make more concessions on spending cuts than he has done thus far. That isn't sitting well with liberal Democrats, who think Obama has already given too much ground.
One reason the two parties can't find common ground: they can't even agree on what's causing high deficits. Democrats mostly blame it on policies of George W. Bush: two wars, tax cuts that continue to benefit the wealthy and an expensive prescription drug program. Republicans see government spending as the culprit, particularly on Obama's watch.
In fact, the main reason is the deep recession, which slashed tax revenues and led to hundreds of billions of dollars in recession-fighting spending by both Bush and Obama. The debt was $9 trillion in late 2007 before the start of the Great Recession, and it's just a sliver under the $14.3 trillion limit today.
Even though GOP leaders say they want to avoid more economic chaos, there is a large crop of tea-party aligned Republicans threatening to refuse to raise the cap under almost any circumstance. Polls suggest a large percentage of Americans oppose raising the debt limit.
The debt limit has been raised ten times over the past decade. Obama voted against Bush's debt-limit increase in 2006 as a senator, accusing Bush of "a leadership failure." Obama recently apologized for "making what is a political vote as opposed to doing what was important for the country."
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