Silver Price Forecast And The Shift To Measuring Wealth In Gold Ounces Instead Of Dollars.

Silver Price Forecast:
The debt-based monetary system creates an illusion of wealth. It allows for claims on real goods to significantly exceed the actual amount of real goods. You then have a number of people believing they have wealth, since they have claims (pieces of paper or tokens) showing that they have these real assets, whereas, in reality, if everyone was to claim the real goods, there would not be enough to go around.
The high debt levels, in some way, represent the extent to which there are more claims than the actual underlying real assets.
During the period of credit extension – that has been for at least 80 years – most businesses are set up to take advantage of this system. The system allows for an easier way to increase wealth (illusionary), since only claims on real assets need to be increased, instead of the actual real assets.
As you come to the end of the credit extension cycle, most businesses are dependent on this credit extension, either directly or indirectly. When the debts become too heavy to bear (no one knows the day or the hour, but there are signs), the debt bubble will burst, and over time eliminate all those business opportunities brought about by the debt-based system, as well as the businesses dependent on it.
When this process reverses, there is little opportunity to trade the claim on an asset instead of the actual asset, and also few opportunities to increase the amount of real assets. Furthermore, instead of measuring wealth in terms of claims on real assets (as is now the case), people are more likely to measure wealth in terms of real assets, especially gold.
Today, after a consistent period of credit extension, we have exactly the situation where most businesses are dependent on the debt-based monetary system. I believe we are moving past the point, where any benefit can be achieved from credit extension; therefore, we have the ideal set up for a massive collapse in the world economy.
The increase in the gold price, in real terms, is the clearest signal that it is becoming more and more difficult to increase real wealth (wealth in gold ounces). It will become even more difficult as the economic decline sets in; eliminating businesses very dependent on the debt-based monetary system. Financial institutions like banks would be at the top of this list, but will not be the only ones.
The shift from measuring wealth in terms of paper claims (dollars) to gold ounces, and the limited means to increase gold ounces, will change the business and investment world significantly, and will create a massive rush into those opportunities that increase gold ounces. The shift is already evident, with some countries possibly trading oil for gold.
Currently, in my opinion, silver bullion and gold miners present some of the best opportunities to increase the amount of real wealth as measured in gold ounces.
Both, silver bullion and gold miners are still trading lower or at its 1980 high, and also at relatively historic lows against gold. Silver offers the best opportunity, at the moment, since it offers less risk than shares in gold miners. However, as the gold/silver ratio falls (which is expected), gold miners will become more and more attractive.

Silver Chart Update:

Below, is a 6 year silver chart:

Silver is making its intention to pass the $50 level clear. It is continuing in a pattern similar to gold did, before it cleared its 1980 high (see here). The next important obstacle is to get out of the flag (at about $35 currently). If it continues the pattern that gold made, then it will blast past $50.
For more guidance on silver and gold miners, I have prepared a Long-term Silver Fractal Report ,as well as a Gold Mining Fractal Analysis Report. You are also welcome to consider subscribing to my free newsletter (enter email on side-bar).
Warm regards and God bless,
Hubert

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《貨幣戰爭》是真實的金融史嗎？

 注：本文摘選自余斌《45個十分鐘讀懂資本論》　　
金融寡頭是如何壟斷貨幣的發行權，並獨享中央銀行的，其過程在《貨幣戰爭》（宋鴻兵編著，2007）一書中有很好的揭示，儘管有人斥之為陰謀論貌似資本家們從來不曾或只是很少地玩弄過陰謀。 《貨幣戰爭》一書的缺陷在不懂《資本論》，而不在陰謀論上。這裡要說明的是那段歷史過程背後的規律性的東西，也就是要說明金融寡頭的壟斷的歷史必然性。　
　
正如商品資本在產業資本循環中的職能獨立出來形成商業資本一樣，貨幣在產業資本和商業資本的流通過程中所完成的各種純粹技術性的運動，如貨幣的收付、差額的平衡、往來賬的登記、貨幣的保管等等，也逐漸獨立出來，成為一種特殊資本的職能，而這種把這些運動並且只把它們當作自己特有的活動來完成的特殊資本，就是貨幣經營資本。就這種活動本身而言，貨幣經營者所操作的貨幣資本的總量，就是商人和產業資本家的處在流通中的貨幣資本；貨幣經營者所完成的各種活動，只是他們作為中介所實現的商人和產業資本家的活動。因此，與商業利潤一樣，貨幣經營者的利潤不過是從剩餘價值中所作的一種扣除，因為他們的活動只與已經實現的價值有關。　
　
然而，隨著貨幣經營業的發展，生息資本或貨幣資本的管理——貨幣的借入和貸出——也就作為貨幣經營者的特殊職能發展起來了。貨幣經營資本發展成了以銀行為中心的金融資本。一方面，銀行家把借貸貨幣資本大量集中在自己手中，以致與產業資本家和商業資本家相對立的，不是單個的貸出者，而是作為所有貸出者的代表的銀行家。銀行家成了貨幣資本的總管理人。另一方面，由於他們為整個商業界而藉款，他們也把借入者集中起來，與所有貸出者相對立。銀行一方面代表貨幣資本的集中，也就是貸出者的集中，另一方面代表借入者的集中。銀行的利潤一般地說在於：它們藉入時的利息率低於貸出時的利息率。 
　　
銀行擁有的借貸資本，是通過多種途徑流到銀行那裡的。首先，因為銀行是產業資本家的出納業者，每個生產者和商人作為準備金保存的或在支付中得到的貨幣資本，一般都會集中到銀行手中。這樣，這種基金就轉化為藉貸貨幣資本。商業界的準備金，由​​於作為共同的準備金集中起來，就可以限製到必要的最低限度，而本來要作為準備金閒置起來的一部分貨幣資本也就會貸放出去，作為生息資本執行職能。其次，銀行的借貸資本還包括可由銀行貸放的貨幣資本家的存款。此外，隨著銀行對存款開始支付利息，一切階級的貨幣積蓄和暫時不用的貨幣，以及各種只是逐漸花費的收入，都被存入銀行。小的金額是不能單獨作為貨幣資本發揮作用的，但它們在銀行家那裡集合起來，就形成一個貨幣力量。於是，隨著資本主義經濟的發展，出現在市場上的貨幣資本，會越來越不由個別的資本家來代表，即越來越不由市場上現有資本的這個部分或那個部分的所有者來代表，而是越來越表現為一個集中的有組織的量，這個量和實際的生產完全不同，是受那些代表社會資本的銀行家控制的。　
　
另一方面，資本主義生產只有在資本價值增殖時，才能夠存在和繼續存在。但是，不時出現的技術革命導致的生產資本貶值，因生產條件變化而導致的生產要素的價值大幅波動，生產過剩的危機導致的商品價格下跌，都可能使資本家的資本價值不但不能增殖，反而要遭受虧損甚至被吞蝕。顯然，只有在這種種干擾能夠被排除或克服時，資本主義生產過程才能夠正常地進行。干擾越大，越是和資本家個人的先見和打算背道而馳，正常的生產過程就越是屈服於不正常的投機，單個資本的存在就越是要冒巨大的危險。這時，產業資本家持有的貨幣資本量越大，就越有可能等到干擾被排除的時候。同時，因為隨著​​資本主義生產的發展，單個生產過程的規模會擴大，預付資本的最低限量的門檻也會隨之提高。於是，這兩個方面都使得產業資本家不得不仰賴大貨幣資本家的融資支持，產業資本家的職能也就越來越轉化為各自獨立或互相結合的大貨幣資本家的壟斷。　
　
與此同時，以國家的名義裝飾起來的大銀行，從一產生起就只不過是私人投機家的公司而已。它們支持政府，依靠取得的特權能夠把貨幣貸給政府。這些銀行的充分發展是從英格蘭銀行的創立（1694年）開始的。英格蘭銀行開始經營的第一筆生意，就是以8%的利率貸款給政府；同時由議會授權用同一資本鑄造金屬貨幣，這同一資本又以信用紙幣的形式貸給公眾。它可以用這些紙幣來辦理期票貼現、發放貨物抵押貸款和購買貴金屬。過了不久，這些由銀行自己製造的信用紙幣從社會上換回了金屬鑄幣，英格蘭銀行用這些鑄幣貸款給國家並代國家支付公債利息。它一隻手拿出去，另一隻手拿更多的進來，這還不夠；當它拿進來時，它仍然是國民的永遠債權人。借債使政府可以應付額外的開支，而納稅人又不會立即有所感覺，但藉債最終還是要求提高稅收。另一方面，由於債務一筆接著一筆的積累而引起的增稅，又迫使政府在遇到新的額外開支時，總是要藉新債。這就使國家也逐漸落入了金融資本家的控制之中。　
　
隨著紙幣取代金屬貨幣成為流通中唯一合法的貨幣，壟斷了印鈔機的金融資本的權力進一步加強了。當金融資本家把100美元按5%的利率貸出時，借款人為了還這筆債就要支付105美元，而這多出來的5美元，仍然要出自金融資本家的印鈔機，它要么來自新債，從而導致債務不斷累積並永遠還不清；要么來自對金融資本家的進貢，也就是說，為了讓金融資本家不以信貸的方式額外提供5美元，就得讓金融資本家白白獲得​​標價為5美元的商品，即獲得鑄幣稅。既然每年都有大量的貸款利息要償還，那麼就必然有大量的美元以這種方式進入流通，並給金融資本家帶來巨大的利益。 
　　
正是在這樣的背景下，《貨幣戰爭》中的那些故事才得以展開。如果還有人以為《貨幣戰爭》是虛構的，那就真的要讓人懷疑他的智力了。其實，遠在這本書之前，馬克思就已經根據官方檔案揭露了正人君子們是如何玩弄陰謀的，如英國大臣們在打仗期間是如何同敵人勾結在一起的等等。而《貨幣戰爭》一書中所揭露的正人君子們的行為與此是一致的。 
　　
由於金融寡頭通過美聯儲獲得了決定基礎利率的權力，因此，在種種對利率進行投機或受利率影響的金融衍生產品交易中，金融寡頭們是先知先覺、穩賺不賠的。吃虧的只是這個寡頭圈外的資本家和某些國家的國有資本。在這次美國金融危機中，破產的大銀行和大商業機構中沒有一家是金融寡頭旗下的，美聯儲的股東們旗下的商業銀行的市場份額在這場金融危機中甚至擴大了。 
　　
順帶說明的是，今天的金融業相對於一個半世紀之前雖然有了較大的發展，但是它的原則卻是在那時就已經確定了的。馬克思曾經指出，當時法國的冒險家皇帝波拿巴及其同夥設立股份銀行的指導原則就是，建立大量的工業企業，不是為了進行生產上的投資，而只是想取得投機利潤。這種把工業封建主義（即股份公司）變成證券投機的納貢者的思想，正是今天的投資銀行業務和證券市場的指導原則。捲入國美電器控制權之爭的中國境外金融資本的代言人就表示，該資本不會是國美電器永遠的持股人，一般的做法是5~7年左右退出，這從一個側面證明了馬克思對於這些金融業的寄生者階級的一個判斷，即他們不僅能週期地消滅一部分產業資本家，而且能用一種非常危險的方法來干涉現實生產——而他們既不懂生產，又同生產沒有關係。有意思的是，這場美國金融危機就是由美國一家大投資銀行雷曼兄弟公司的破產而引爆的。但是，儘管美國五大投資銀行不是破產就是被迫轉變成商業銀行以甩掉包袱，美國的投資銀行業務卻一點也沒有少。


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US Silver Consumption Now 75% Dependent on Imports!

Even more astonishing is that the USGS classifies ETF and COMEX silver in the Supply category! That's equivalent to inventoring the home you live in as available to someone else - - how about that!

ETF paper silver is not deliverable to you, and COMEX contracts are now settled as "cash settlements" - no physical delivery. These schemes are not unlike your own home being taken as 'right of eminent domain'! When you're 'partnering' with government & banksta crooks, at the very least it's a game of Touchie-Feelie.

With zero silver reserves held as national stockpile for "national defense", and with the US being a belligerent warrior nation, when will the Marxists/Neocons take yours?

Dump your ETF derivative shares, close your paper futures, and GET PHYSICAL that you can touch and feel.

Click here for better clarity and for Gold here.
 

http://www.24hgold.com/

New EW Silver Discovery – Alf Field Febr 2012

Alf Field predicts $ 158 as the next target for silver Alf Field, my good friend and Elliott Wave Expert par excellence, has produced a superb analysis on silver forecasting that the next objective for silver is $ 158 which corresponds with his $ 4,500 target for gold.
Egon von Greyerz

A new Elliott Wave Silver Discovery

By Alf Field

I have received numerous emails asking about silver. This article was prompted by a question enquiring what the silver price might be if my gold forecast of $4,500 proved to be correct.The question caused me to take a closer look at silver.
The reason why I have written very little about silver in the past was because the beautiful Elliott Wave (EW) symmetry and predictable relationships visible in gold were not to be found in silver. This article reveals a new EW discovery that proves that EW is alive and well and living in silver.
I first wrote about silver in December 2003 in an article titled “US Dollar Implosion – Part II”. The link to this article is at: http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/field120503.html. The brief piece on silver was tacked onto the end of that article. In view of its brevity, the 2003 silver piece is reproduced in full below:
SILVER

“In past crises, the wealthy protected themselves by purchasing gold and gold related assets. Ordinary people, by far the greater number, could rarely afford to buy gold. Being far cheaper, they previously had to buy silver. This metal became the poor man’s choice as an asset to protect their savings. Silver has so far lagged gold in the early stages of this bull market, but that situation seems about to change.”
“Throughout recorded history the average relationship between silver and gold has been 15oz silver to 1oz gold. The ratio at present is a far higher 75:1 ($400/$5.30). This is massively out of line. If gold were to double to $800 per oz, it would not be unreasonable to expect the silver/gold ratio to decline sharply, possibly as low as 40:1. With gold at $800, this would position silver at $20.

Thus a 100% increase in the price of gold could possibly be accompanied by a simultaneous 400% increase (perhaps more) in the price of silver. This offers significant opportunities both in silver bullion and silver mining shares.

The above graph of the price of silver has been borrowed from an excellent recent article by Dan Norcini entitled “A Technical Look at Silver – Update”. What is quite clear from the graph is that silver’s 22-year bear market down trend has come to an end. As Dan Norcini says, a new bull market in silver has been born. It is difficult to argue against this contention and I have no intention of doing so. A silver price above $6.80 would complete a fabulous head-and-shoulders base formation. With this as a foundation, it would be possible to project a very large rise in the price of silver for the future.” – end of the December 2003 quotation.
Silver did reach $20.68 in March 2008 at the same time that gold peaked at $1003. The silver to gold ratio was thus 48.5 in March 2008. The lowest this ratio has reached is about 32, achieved at the end of April 2011 when gold was around $1570 and silver peaked in the $49 area. At that point gold had experienced a 6-fold increase from its bull market starting point of $255 while the silver price rose 12-fold from its bull market starting point of $4 in November 2001.
The quick answer to the question of what the silver price will be when gold gets to $4,500 is to pick your favorite silver/gold ratio and divide it into $4500. The current ratio incidentally is about 51. If you choose the lowest ratio achieved since 2001 of 32 that would produce a silver price of around $140 ($4500 divided by 32).
This is not a satisfactory answer, so I decided to approach the Elliott Wave analysis of silver from a different angle. Instead of working upwards using the analysis of the minor waves, which was the technique used in the gold calculations, what if we worked backwards in silver starting with the larger waves?
Gold and silver tend to move in tandem, not in an exact synchronization, but enough to suggest that the Major waves of both metals should coincide from a time perspective. We know that in gold the Major ONE wave peaked in March 2008 at $1003 and that Major TWO declined to $680 in November 2008.
Silver also had a peak in March 2008 at $20.68 and declined to an important low of $8.77 in November 2008. If we assumed that the peak at $20.68 in March 2008 was the end of Major ONE and the decline to $8.77 the end of Major TWO, how would the various percentages work out? When I did these calculations I was astonished at the relationships and wave counts that emerged.
The chart below is the monthly spot silver price shown in log scale so that the percentage changes are visible. The bull market started in November 2001 at a price of $4.02. From that point to the suggested peak of Major ONE at $20.68 there are five clear waves visible, marked 1-2-3-4-5. The prices at the various turning points are also displayed.

The analysis of the suggested Major ONE wave is set out in the body of the chart. The typical impulse wave relationships are immediately apparent. Both corrective waves 2 and 4 are similar (-33.7% and -35.9%). Whenever two corrective waves are similar it is a signal that they are part of the same larger wave structure. On its own, this fact would confirm that the 5 wave move from $4.02 to $20.68 was a complete wave of larger degree.
There is further corroborating evidence. Waves 1 and 5 are similar at +106% and +115%, a usual EW feature. Wave 3 should be the longest wave, and it is at +171%. In addition, if one multiplies the gain in wave 1 of +106% by 1.618 it produces 171.5%, exactly the gain in wave 3. These relationships are evidence that the rise from $4.02 to $20.68 is a completed impulse wave and that we can call it Major ONE.
Having completed this 5 wave up move, the next correction in Major TWO would be expected to be one degree larger than the two corrections of 33.7% and 35.9% in Major ONE. As shown on the chart, Major TWO declined from $20.68 to $8.77, a loss of -57.6%. The two corrections of 33.7% and 35.9% are close to the Fibonacci 34. The next higher number in the sequence is 55, close to the actual decline of 57.6% in major TWO. Incidentally, if we take the 35.9% decline and multiply it by 1.618, it gives a figure of 58%, very close to the actual decline of 57.6%.
These relationships suggest that silver has completed the same shaped bull market as gold has and that it is at the same stage in its development. Thus silver has probably also completed the first intermediate up wave of Major THREE, in this case from $8.77 to $49.52, a gain of +$40.75 or +464% and has also completed intermediate wave 2 of Major THREE, being the decline from $49.52 to $26.39 or -47%.
How does this decline of -47% measure up in terms of EW relationships? As with gold, where the corrections in Major THREE were shown to be larger than the corrections in Major ONE, the same applies to silver. The corrections in Major ONE shown in the chart above were close to -34%. If we multiply 34% by another Fibonacci relationship of 1.382 we get 47%!

This is mind-blowing stuff for an analyst who did not believe that EW applied to silver! 

We can now attempt to make some price forecasts. Silver, as with gold, is starting intermediate wave 3 of Major THREE, which should be the longest and strongest wave in the bull market. It should certainly be longer than intermediate wave 1 which was the gain from $8.77 to $49.52, or +464%, as shown above.

Thus the gain in wave 3 of Major THREE should be larger than +464%. It should be a gain of at least 500%. Starting from the $26.39 low, a gain of 500% would produce a target price of $158.34 for silver. That is the number which equates with the $4500 price forecast for gold and produces a silver to gold ratio of 28.4 ($4500 divided by 158.34).

The gain in gold was forecast to be 200% for this move while the forecast rise in the silver price is 500%. Silver is again predicted to perform better than gold based on these EW calculations.
A word of caution is appropriate at this stage. All EW studies are based on probabilities. While the wave counts may provide a high degree of confidence in the forecasts, one cannot be 100% certain of any forecast. It is necessary to have a point at which it is obvious that the forecasts are wrong. In the case of this silver study, the line in the sand is at $26.00. If the silver price drops below $26.00 the odds are that the above calculations will not work out.
A further word of caution: silver is not for the faint hearted. Silver is considerably more volatile than gold and the corrections are much larger. Silver corrections can and do happen quickly. They are emotionally gut-wrenching and it is easy to get shaken out of one’s position near the bottom of a large correction.
Alf Field
1 February 2012

Jim Rickards Gold is Money $7000 Gold Price

Silver Powering 20 Million Homes as Glut Subsides: Commodities

 The metal is also used in electrical conductors, wood preservatives and alloys, compensating for a slump in photographic film demand. Photographer: Victor J. Blue/ Bloomberg

Record industrial demand for silver and resurging investor interest is diminishing a supply surplus, driving the metal used in everything from solar panels to batteries into its best start to a year in almost three decades.

Manufacturers will use 15,415 metric tons, 2.5 percent more than in 2011 and reducing the glut by 41 percent to 3,297 tons, Barclays Capital estimates. Investors may buy 2,000 tons through exchange-traded products, after selling 1,300 tons last year, Morgan Stanley predicts. Prices will average $37.50 an ounce in the fourth quarter, 13 percent more than now, the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 13 analysts shows.

The metal rallied 22 percent since closing at an 11-month low in December, entering a bull market on mounting confidence that another global recession will be avoided even as the World Bank and International Monetary Fund cut their growth forecasts. Prices had plunged 44 percent in eight months, making it the most volatile of any metal tracked by Bloomberg, as expansion slowed from Europe to China, crimping demand for commodities.

“Silver got hammered and now we’re into a phase where it will do quite well,” said Dan Smith, an analyst at Standard Chartered Plc in London, and the second-most accurate price forecaster tracked by Bloomberg Rankings in the past eight quarters. “Appeal comes from its widespread use in both industry and investment. I think it’s relatively cheap.” 

Standard & Poor’s 

The commodity advanced 19 percent since Dec. 31 to $33.15, the best start to a year since 1983. The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Total Return Index of 24 commodities rose 2.3 percent and the MSCI (MXWD) All-Country World Index of equities 5.6 percent. Treasuries returned 0.3 percent, a Bank of America Corp. index shows.

This year’s anticipated gains in silver will mean record profit for Coeur d’Alene Mines Corp. (CDE) and Fresnillo Plc (FRES), analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg show.

Economies may still pose the biggest threat to the rally. The IMF cut its 2012 forecast on Jan. 24 to 3.3 percent from 4 percent and warned that Europe’s debt crisis threatened to derail the world economy. The World Bank reduced its estimate by the most in three years on Jan. 18, to 2.5 percent from 3.6 percent. Global industrial production will expand 2.3 percent, from 4.9 percent in 2011, Macquarie Group Ltd. predicts.

The 0.5 percent contraction in the 17-nation euro region seen by the IMF may curb demand for imported goods. Chinese exports rose 13.4 percent in December from a year earlier, the slowest pace since February, according to customs data. The nation imported 235 tons of silver in December, 36 percent less than the average over the past two years, the data show. 

Industrial Demand 

“In the face of weak industrial demand, the short-term investment argument is not entirely convincing,” said David Jollie, an analyst at Mitsui & Co. Precious Metals Inc. in London and the most accurate forecaster in the London Bullion Market Association’s 2011 price survey. “It’s much more difficult to get people to invest for the long term in times of economic uncertainty.”

For now, speculators are getting more bullish. Hedge funds and other money managers more than doubled wagers on higher prices this year, Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. They held 16,034 futures and options in the week ended Jan. 24, the most since mid-September. The most widely held option gives the owners the right to buy silver at $40 by June, data from the Comex in New York show. The three biggest holdings are all call options at 21 percent or more above prices today.

Investors added 196 tons to their ETP holdings this month, taking the total to 17,492 tons valued at $18.64 billion, within 7 percent of the record reached in April, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. They also bought 6.082 million ounces (189 tons) of American Eagle silver coins, the most in a year, data on the U.S. Mint’s website shows. 

Kodachrome Film 

Those sales are whittling away the supply glut as industrial consumption strengthens. Global solar-panel installations increased capacity by 70 percent last year, creating enough generating power to supply about 20 million homes, according to the European Photovoltaic Industry Association. The metal is also used in electrical conductors, wood preservatives and alloys, compensating for a slump in photographic film demand.

Eastman Kodak Co. (EK), based in Rochester, New York, said in 2009 it would stop making Kodachrome film after more than seven decades and on Jan. 19 filed for bankruptcy. Demand for silver from photographic-film makers slid at least 66 percent in the past decade, the Washington-based Silver Institute estimates. 

Gold Ratio 

Silver may still be cheap relative to gold, with a price ratio of 52.2, down from 57.4 in December. It averaged 32.4 in 1980, when silver reached a record $50.35 in New York trading. Nelson and William Hunt of Dallas were convicted eight years later of conspiracy for attempting to manipulate prices and were ordered to pay $130 million.

In inflation-adjusted terms, that peak would be equal to $138.31 as of last year, according to a calculator from the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.

Crystalline silicon solar panels use as much as 0.12 grams of silver per watt, and as much as 40 grams go into a 32-inch plasma television, according to VM Group, a London-based research company. Electronic-equipment manufacturing will expand 5 percent this year, according to Los Altos, California-based researcher Henderson Ventures in a December report.

Coeur d’Alene, which gets about 69 percent of its revenue from silver, will report profit of $241.50 million this year, compared with an estimated $120.25 million in 2011, according to the mean of four analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Shares of the Idaho-based company gained 16 percent since the start of January. 

Most Accurate Forecaster 

Fresnillo will report net income of $988.7 million this year, compared with an estimated $945 million in 2011, the mean of six estimates shows. Shares of the Mexico City-based company jumped 14 percent in London this year.

“Silver is a hybrid,” said Bart Melek, the head of commodity strategy at TD Securities Inc. in Toronto and the most accurate forecaster tracked by Bloomberg Rankings in the past eight quarters. “It benefits from being precious. Later on in the year we’re going to see a bit of a recovery in industrial demand.”

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