2011年9月21日星期三
Central banks return as gold buyers
By Jack Farchy in Montreal
European central banks have become net buyers of gold for the first time in more than two decades, the latest sign of how the turbulence in the currency and debt markets has revolutionised the bullion market.
European central banks have become net buyers of gold for the first time in more than two decades, the latest sign of how the turbulence in the currency and debt markets has revolutionised the bullion market.
The purchases are minuscule compared with the size of the global gold market, but highlight a remarkable turnround from a wave of heavy selling by European central banks.
The role of central banks in the gold market will be a central topic of debate at the annual London Bullion Market Association conference, the largest gathering of the gold industry, in Montreal this week. The switch from large selling to buying has helped propel the gold price more than 25 per cent higher so far this year, hitting a nominal record of $1,920 a troy ounce this month. The shift in Europe comes as central banks in emerging markets are also loading up on gold.
Mexico, Russia, South Korea and Thailand have all made large purchases this year, in a move to reduce their exposure to the dollar. Globally, central banks are set to buy more gold this year than at any time since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system 40 years ago – the last time the value of the dollar was linked to gold.
“We’re going back to a time when gold is seen very much as money,” Jonathan Spall, director of precious metals sales at Barclays Capital, told FT.com in a video interview. “It has been a complete reversal of the attitudes we saw during the 1990s.”
European central banks have added about 25,000 ounces, or 0.8 tonnes, of gold to their reserves in the year to date, according to data from the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund.
That compares with average sales of almost 400 tonnes a year since 1999, as they swapped their non-yielding and unfashionable bullion for sovereign debt. Global gold consumption stands at about 4,500 tonnes a year.
Most of the buying in Europe was related to Estonia’s move to join the single currency bloc at the start of the year. The Estonian central bank bought gold to add to the ECB’s reserves, according to an ECB statement in January. Elsewhere, Malta bought 3,000 ounces.
Europe’s central banks have not been net buyers of gold since 1985, according to data from the World Gold Council.
“The motivation for European central banks to diversify out of gold into dollar-denominated assets has been negatively impacted by US fiscal and monetary policy,” said Natalie Dempster, head of government affairs at the mining industry-backed group.
A third round of quantitative easing would make the sale of gold “look less attractive than ever before”, she added.
The shift to buying comes as some politicians in the eurozone are calling for heavily indebted members such as Portugal, Spain or Italy to be forced to sell their gold reserves to reduce their debts. However, at current gold prices such a move would barely dent the countries’ debt piles, while analysts believe it would amplify investors’ concerns about the eurozone
London Trader - Massive Physical Floor in the Gold Market
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/9/20_London_Trader_-_Massive_Physical_Floor_in_the_Gold_Market.html
September 20, 2011
With gold hovering near the $1,800 level, a trader out of London told King World News, “China is trading gold at a $17 premium today vs COMEX futures. Silver is trading at a premium of $2.48 vs futures price (COMEX). What this tells you is that these people in China are willing to pay the equivalent of roughly $12,500 more per contract than what silver is being traded for on the COMEX.”
“As soon as China closes trading each day, that is when the selling starts in the paper markets. These raids on the price are designed to get weaker players flushed out of the futures markets so they (commercials) can cover some of their short positions.
If there is that strong of a bid for gold out of the Eastern hemisphere, what that tells me is that all of the heavily leveraged paper manipulation in the West will not have much more downside impact. All the manipulators are doing at this point is compressing a spring, but at some point this market is eventually going to gap up incredibly hard against them.
Two weeks ago there were some indications that the gold market was going to be taken down, an example being the sharp drop in lease rates. You know how this works, a central bank(s) are selling some gold into the market and the bullion banks, which act as agents for the central banks, take that gold and sell it into the market and even use leverage at weak technical points....
“They also do this when trading is thin, such as during the access market when no one is around, and they drive the price lower in an attempt to create panic by the longs.
After lease rates had dropped and the gold market was attacked, we find out after the fact that the central banks decided to raise dollars by leasing gold. The central banks had not done that for two years. Central banks have been preserving central bank gold and overall the central banks have been net buyers, and then all of the sudden they lease it, thus selling it into the market.
For what it is worth, this gold goes right into an Asian vault and it is gone from the West permanently. This is having the effect of transferring Western solid assets over to the East, in size. This has the appearance of desperation because in the end this is really an attempt to save the too big to fail banks that are on the wrong side of a derivative play yet again. That is the reason this is being done.
Western central banks don’t really want that gold to disappear like that, they don’t want to sell that gold. They had to raise dollars in a hurry to pump liquidity into the system, but in the end, as I said, the gold is gone. In the old days the gold would be floating around the LBMA system, there would be a little bit of erosion, but today that gold is being sucked into the East.
This price action has had the effect of creating bearish sentiment, but meanwhile the physical buyers are just sitting there and constantly accumulating physical gold. There are massive orders for tonnage of gold, incredible amounts between $1,715 and $1,760. This has the effect of putting a physical floor under the price of gold. If they make a push to the $1,715 level that would be suicide in my opinion. There are simply too many massive orders for physical gold down to that level for that to be breached.
During this quarter this leased gold is supposed to be paid back, but how? As the central banks come to grips with the reality that the leased gold is gone, there may be a religious experience to the upside in gold and you will see the gold price break the $2,000 level.
As far as silver goes, the paper price is becoming increasingly irrelevant. It is possible there could be a spike to $37 or $38 in thin access trading, but the bottom line is that serious physical buying will be taking place anywhere below $40, so this is a losing game for the paper manipulators.”
This is the same trader that told King World News on August 10th with gold trading near the $1,800 level, “The physical buyers still have not been filled and they are getting nervous. The buyers in size have not been filled and they are underpinning this gold market. If gold pulls back the buyers will get some fills, if not they are going to have to start chasing this market. In fact, don’t be surprised to see a $100 move in gold if they lose patience.”
Within days the price of gold spiked more than $100, breaking the $1,900 level. Now the London Trader is telling King World News to expect this massive physical floor on gold to hold and that we should also look for gold to take off to the upside through the $2,000 level. If sentiment is any indicator, the pessimism in gold could be signaling this market is in fact ready to turn, let’s see what happens.
September 20, 2011
With gold hovering near the $1,800 level, a trader out of London told King World News, “China is trading gold at a $17 premium today vs COMEX futures. Silver is trading at a premium of $2.48 vs futures price (COMEX). What this tells you is that these people in China are willing to pay the equivalent of roughly $12,500 more per contract than what silver is being traded for on the COMEX.”
“As soon as China closes trading each day, that is when the selling starts in the paper markets. These raids on the price are designed to get weaker players flushed out of the futures markets so they (commercials) can cover some of their short positions.
If there is that strong of a bid for gold out of the Eastern hemisphere, what that tells me is that all of the heavily leveraged paper manipulation in the West will not have much more downside impact. All the manipulators are doing at this point is compressing a spring, but at some point this market is eventually going to gap up incredibly hard against them.
Two weeks ago there were some indications that the gold market was going to be taken down, an example being the sharp drop in lease rates. You know how this works, a central bank(s) are selling some gold into the market and the bullion banks, which act as agents for the central banks, take that gold and sell it into the market and even use leverage at weak technical points....
“They also do this when trading is thin, such as during the access market when no one is around, and they drive the price lower in an attempt to create panic by the longs.
After lease rates had dropped and the gold market was attacked, we find out after the fact that the central banks decided to raise dollars by leasing gold. The central banks had not done that for two years. Central banks have been preserving central bank gold and overall the central banks have been net buyers, and then all of the sudden they lease it, thus selling it into the market.
For what it is worth, this gold goes right into an Asian vault and it is gone from the West permanently. This is having the effect of transferring Western solid assets over to the East, in size. This has the appearance of desperation because in the end this is really an attempt to save the too big to fail banks that are on the wrong side of a derivative play yet again. That is the reason this is being done.
Western central banks don’t really want that gold to disappear like that, they don’t want to sell that gold. They had to raise dollars in a hurry to pump liquidity into the system, but in the end, as I said, the gold is gone. In the old days the gold would be floating around the LBMA system, there would be a little bit of erosion, but today that gold is being sucked into the East.
This price action has had the effect of creating bearish sentiment, but meanwhile the physical buyers are just sitting there and constantly accumulating physical gold. There are massive orders for tonnage of gold, incredible amounts between $1,715 and $1,760. This has the effect of putting a physical floor under the price of gold. If they make a push to the $1,715 level that would be suicide in my opinion. There are simply too many massive orders for physical gold down to that level for that to be breached.
During this quarter this leased gold is supposed to be paid back, but how? As the central banks come to grips with the reality that the leased gold is gone, there may be a religious experience to the upside in gold and you will see the gold price break the $2,000 level.
As far as silver goes, the paper price is becoming increasingly irrelevant. It is possible there could be a spike to $37 or $38 in thin access trading, but the bottom line is that serious physical buying will be taking place anywhere below $40, so this is a losing game for the paper manipulators.”
This is the same trader that told King World News on August 10th with gold trading near the $1,800 level, “The physical buyers still have not been filled and they are getting nervous. The buyers in size have not been filled and they are underpinning this gold market. If gold pulls back the buyers will get some fills, if not they are going to have to start chasing this market. In fact, don’t be surprised to see a $100 move in gold if they lose patience.”
Within days the price of gold spiked more than $100, breaking the $1,900 level. Now the London Trader is telling King World News to expect this massive physical floor on gold to hold and that we should also look for gold to take off to the upside through the $2,000 level. If sentiment is any indicator, the pessimism in gold could be signaling this market is in fact ready to turn, let’s see what happens.
如何在等待港元與美元脫鉤時獲利
轉載
港元與美元掛鉤的聯繫匯率制度會結束﹐但不會很快結束。問題是如何在聯繫匯率制度結束之前的這段等待時間里獲利。
在 紐約﹐結束聯繫匯率制度的理由看來顯而易見。由於美國經濟惡化、美元走軟﹐與美元掛鉤的港元隨之走軟。這會增大通脹壓力﹐加劇資產價格泡沫。與此同時﹐香 港的命運更加緊密地與金融體系開始慢慢開放的中國內地聯繫在一起。在聯繫匯率制度有朝一日將結束、港元會隨之升值的預期之下﹐買入期限較長的港元看漲期權 是非常合理的。
但在香港﹐理由則沒有這麼一目瞭然。人們對聯繫匯率制度有著強烈的好感。自1983年以來﹐聯繫匯率制度支撐了香港數十年的金融穩定和經濟增長。
聯繫匯率製造成的通貨膨脹和資產泡沫代價非常高。7月份消費者價格指數(CPI)上升了7.9%﹐房價則在飆升。不過﹐作為貿易和金融中心﹐全球經濟出現任何的下滑﹐香港都會受到打擊﹐價格上漲的壓力也會隨之減輕。
即使價格上漲壓力沒有減輕﹐香港金管局對通貨膨脹也有著很高的容忍度。匯豐(HSBC)亞洲經濟研究主管范力民(Frederic Neumann)指出﹐上世紀90年代初﹐香港的通貨膨脹率曾高達12%以上﹐卻絲毫沒有動搖聯繫匯率制度。
從 較長遠的角度看﹐香港與內地的關係越來越密切﹐美元作為國際儲備貨幣的地位不斷減弱﹐這將更有力地證明應該打破聯繫匯率制度。如果內地採取使人民幣完全可 兌換的措施﹐遊戲規則將會徹底改變。不過﹐人民幣完全可兌換需要多年才能變為現實。在聯繫匯率制度結束的時間如此不確定的情況下﹐除買進到期時可能一錢不 值的期權外﹐是否還有其他可以獲利的辦法？
一種可能是﹐乾脆買進港元計價的資產﹐比如房地產或股票。好處是：在港元依然與美元掛鉤時﹐買 進港元計價的資產有可能獲利。以房地產為例﹐走軟的美元使房地產對國際買家來說更加便宜﹐而且美聯儲(Federal Reserve)寬鬆的貨幣政策使港元利率很低。至於香港股市﹐很多上市公司都是收入以人民幣計算的內地企業﹐隨著目前人民幣兌港元的升值﹐這些收入折算 成的港元也在增多﹐使公司業績顯得更加強勁。
顯然﹐假如港元重估﹐這類資產的投資者會因匯率而獲益。但他們也會因港元資產的價格可能大幅 波動而承受風險。一定程度上由於來自內地的資金﹐香港的房地產價格一路飆升﹐不過升速目前已開始放緩。如果結束聯繫匯率制度﹐將使香港房地產對外國買家來 說更加昂貴﹐進而可能會加大價格下行壓力。
對於那些願意長期押注香港的人來說﹐他們的投資有朝一日可能會因港元的重估而升值。不過﹐那些希望直接投資港元的人總有辦法將手裡的現金用起來。將現金從美元轉為港元﹐影響微乎其微﹐因為港元和美元利率是相互跟隨的。由於港元不太可能貶值﹐港元的重估可能會帶來驚喜。
http://chinese.wsj.com
港元與美元掛鉤的聯繫匯率制度會結束﹐但不會很快結束。問題是如何在聯繫匯率制度結束之前的這段等待時間里獲利。
在 紐約﹐結束聯繫匯率制度的理由看來顯而易見。由於美國經濟惡化、美元走軟﹐與美元掛鉤的港元隨之走軟。這會增大通脹壓力﹐加劇資產價格泡沫。與此同時﹐香 港的命運更加緊密地與金融體系開始慢慢開放的中國內地聯繫在一起。在聯繫匯率制度有朝一日將結束、港元會隨之升值的預期之下﹐買入期限較長的港元看漲期權 是非常合理的。
Bloomberg News
1月拍攝到的香港夜景﹐圖為“幻彩詠香江”燈光音樂匯演的場景。
聯繫匯率製造成的通貨膨脹和資產泡沫代價非常高。7月份消費者價格指數(CPI)上升了7.9%﹐房價則在飆升。不過﹐作為貿易和金融中心﹐全球經濟出現任何的下滑﹐香港都會受到打擊﹐價格上漲的壓力也會隨之減輕。
即使價格上漲壓力沒有減輕﹐香港金管局對通貨膨脹也有著很高的容忍度。匯豐(HSBC)亞洲經濟研究主管范力民(Frederic Neumann)指出﹐上世紀90年代初﹐香港的通貨膨脹率曾高達12%以上﹐卻絲毫沒有動搖聯繫匯率制度。
從 較長遠的角度看﹐香港與內地的關係越來越密切﹐美元作為國際儲備貨幣的地位不斷減弱﹐這將更有力地證明應該打破聯繫匯率制度。如果內地採取使人民幣完全可 兌換的措施﹐遊戲規則將會徹底改變。不過﹐人民幣完全可兌換需要多年才能變為現實。在聯繫匯率制度結束的時間如此不確定的情況下﹐除買進到期時可能一錢不 值的期權外﹐是否還有其他可以獲利的辦法？
一種可能是﹐乾脆買進港元計價的資產﹐比如房地產或股票。好處是：在港元依然與美元掛鉤時﹐買 進港元計價的資產有可能獲利。以房地產為例﹐走軟的美元使房地產對國際買家來說更加便宜﹐而且美聯儲(Federal Reserve)寬鬆的貨幣政策使港元利率很低。至於香港股市﹐很多上市公司都是收入以人民幣計算的內地企業﹐隨著目前人民幣兌港元的升值﹐這些收入折算 成的港元也在增多﹐使公司業績顯得更加強勁。
顯然﹐假如港元重估﹐這類資產的投資者會因匯率而獲益。但他們也會因港元資產的價格可能大幅 波動而承受風險。一定程度上由於來自內地的資金﹐香港的房地產價格一路飆升﹐不過升速目前已開始放緩。如果結束聯繫匯率制度﹐將使香港房地產對外國買家來 說更加昂貴﹐進而可能會加大價格下行壓力。
對於那些願意長期押注香港的人來說﹐他們的投資有朝一日可能會因港元的重估而升值。不過﹐那些希望直接投資港元的人總有辦法將手裡的現金用起來。將現金從美元轉為港元﹐影響微乎其微﹐因為港元和美元利率是相互跟隨的。由於港元不太可能貶值﹐港元的重估可能會帶來驚喜。
http://chinese.wsj.com
金價反彈至1800美元上方
黃
金期貨週二重返每盎司1800美元上方﹐銀價則升破40美元﹐因投資者趁昨日金價和銀價跌至數週低位時逢低買進。由於投資者對歐洲債務危機前景和美國聯邦儲備委員會(Federal Reserve, 美聯儲)本週的政策會議依舊謹慎﹐金價和銀價繼續獲得支撐。部分投資者因其他資產前景黯淡而轉投貴金屬﹐近月來全球市場動蕩也為金銀價格提供支撐。
紐約商交所Comex分部﹐交投最活躍的十二月黃金期貨漲30.20美元﹐至每盎司1,809.10美元﹐漲幅1.7%。
儘管金價最近表現乏力﹐但一些投資者認為金價將進一步走高。受零售商和消費者的實物買盤提振﹐金價通常在9月份表現強勁。
Transworld Futures的經紀人Jimmy Tintle表示﹐市場仍預計金價將達到每盎司2,000美元左右。
十二月白銀期貨漲2.5%﹐至每盎司40.137美元。
黃金礦業服務公司(GFMS)研究主管Philip Newman稱﹐預計今年的白銀投資需求將達到創紀錄的100億美元以上。
交易員們週三可能將關注美國聯邦公開市場委員會(Federal Open Market Committee, 簡稱FOMC)兩天會議後的政策聲明。市場參與者們認為﹐若美聯儲進一步推出寬鬆貨幣政策﹐那麼長期來看金價有望獲得提振。
但短期來說﹐美聯儲的刺激措施可能引發風險資產走高﹐削弱黃金作為避險資產的需求。
Matt Day
http://cn.wsj.com/
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