Nicholas Hastings
中國是否也將不得不加入貨幣戰爭？
在越來越多的國家加入貨幣戰爭的情況下，國際投資者應該考慮到這個問題。
從表面上看，中國不應該會被迫加入貨幣戰爭。
與其他全球主要經濟體不同，中國經濟增長的恢復能力強於預期。中國的出口增長已得到改善，國內需求也出現了增長。
本週早些時候公佈的匯豐(HSBC)中國1月份製造業採購經理人預覽指數表明，中國本月的製造業活動可能創出1年以來的最高水平。
因此，與其他競爭對手不一樣，短期而言，中國並不存在為增強出口競爭力而故意讓人民幣貶值的壓力。
未來一年中，中國的通貨膨脹壓力預計將逐漸加大，最高可能會從2012年的2.6%升至3.4%，因此更有可能出現的情況是，中國政府可能會希望通過允許人民幣升值來抑制投入價格的上漲。
當然，近幾個月以來，中國央行已經放鬆了此前對美元/人民幣匯率的嚴格管制，該匯率2012年年中時接近6.40元，到今年早些時候，已跌至遠低於6.22元的水平。
但在這種情況下，中國央行現在還會繼續對人民幣升值如此鎮定麼？
該行週五警告稱，2013年流入中國的游資可能會增加。
由於許多國際投資者缺乏其他投資標的，中國央行的這種擔憂並不令人意外。
例如，由於經濟深陷通縮，日本正目前正執意推行貨幣寬鬆政策，這已導致日圓兌美元貶值超過10%。
而英國經濟去年第四季度出現的萎縮可能會促使英國央行(Bank of England)採取更多貨幣寬鬆措施，也會導致英鎊進一步下跌。
再看歐元區，除了德國以外，其他幾乎所有成員國都面臨日益上升的衰退壓力，這意味著，歐洲央行(European Central Bank)將不得不實施可能會進一步拖累歐元的政策。
美國的情況則是，該國經濟的可持續性可能略好一些，但幾乎沒有理由預計美國聯邦儲備委員會(Federal Reserve)會很快採取能夠提振美元的貨幣緊縮措施。
與此同時，有跡象顯示中國經濟增速回升的前景可能並沒有那麼光明。
儘管中國可能已經避免了很多人擔心的經濟硬著陸，但該國的經濟增速更有可能維持在當前水平附近，而不太可能進一步加速。
瑞士信貸(Credit Suisse)的經濟學家們表示，由於到目前為止創造中國經濟增長的都是公共開支項目，一直沒有私人投資能夠替代這些公共項目，這意味著，未來數個季度，中國國內生產總值(GDP)的增速將將徘徊在7.5%-8.5%附近。
中國的出口可能也沒有看上去那麼強勁。根據《華爾街日報》(The Wall Street Journal)的一篇報導，分析師們認為，中國近期出口的大幅增長是受一些特殊因素的影響，香港航運業的管理人士預計，未來一年的情況並不景氣。
由於出口占中國GDP的比重達25%，因此確保出口競爭力的重要性毋庸置疑。
中國央行可能也已開始表明，其不太能夠接受人民幣的進一步升值。
中國央行連續第二個交易日下調了香港的人民幣兌美元參考價格，人民幣兌美元也從近期的高點回落。
中國央行持續引導人民幣走弱很可能暗示，中國也希望保護自身不受競爭性貨幣貶值的不利影響，貨幣戰爭將進一步蔓延。
(編者按：Nicholas Hastings是道瓊斯通訊社駐倫敦的資深記者，有超過20年的外匯市場報導經驗。此前他報導過包括股市、固定收益市場、大宗商品市場和能源市場在內的各類市場消息。 )
2013年2月4日星期一
神經質的金市及背後原因
石林
有 外國分析者形容上周金市的表現是a remarkable display of schizophrenia volatility（一種神經質波動的異常表現）。聯邦儲備局在議息會議後，重申繼續其每月共購買850億元（美元．下同）國庫券和MBS的計劃。周末 公布的美國1月份失業率上升至7.9％，而非農業新職位僅增加15.7萬份，遜於預期，此消息強化了聯儲局繼續其寬鬆政策的背景。美元滙價因此進一步疲 軟，美滙指數一度跌破79點的重要水平。
有 外國分析者形容上周金市的表現是a remarkable display of schizophrenia volatility（一種神經質波動的異常表現）。聯邦儲備局在議息會議後，重申繼續其每月共購買850億元（美元．下同）國庫券和MBS的計劃。周末 公布的美國1月份失業率上升至7.9％，而非農業新職位僅增加15.7萬份，遜於預期，此消息強化了聯儲局繼續其寬鬆政策的背景。美元滙價因此進一步疲 軟，美滙指數一度跌破79點的重要水平。
儘管如此，金市三度上衝仍無法升越上月下旬的高位1697元，僅升至1683.8元水平，且曾回落至1657.9元的近期偏低位，最後以1667.6元收市，比前周僅微漲0.5％。
銀市表現則稍好，惟三度上衝也未能升越前高位32.47元，而止步於32.28元水平，且亦曾回落至31.12元的近期偏低位，周末以31.84元收市，較前周上升2.11％。
背景亦充滿神經質
總的來說，金銀兩市表現似乎與背後相當利好的消息不甚匹配。其實表現神經質的不光是金銀價格波動，與聯儲局現時量化寬鬆政策相關的背景數據也顯示出有若干神經質，令人捉摸不到真正的實質。
今年初，聯儲局透露出今年內可能退市的口風，使人認為美國經濟已走出谷底進入復蘇，並聯想到以前一系列寬鬆政策奏效，製造出的大量貨幣供應至少有部分流入經濟實體。
可是數據告訴我們並非那麼一回事，最近公布的美國去年第四季M1貨幣供應的流動速率進一步下降至6.538，為90年代中期以來的新低；同季M2貨幣供應的流動速率更進一步降至50年代中期以來的新低，僅為1.535。
這兩項數據顯示，以前一系列寬鬆政策對刺激實體經濟其實並無效用，但反過來又令別無良法的聯儲局不得不繼續施行同類舉措。這情形只能以神經質去形容之。
今年以來聯儲局的確加強了寬鬆政策的具體行動，令該局資產負債表的資產總值超越了3萬億元的規模，持有的國庫券和MBS總值創了新高，同時使貨幣基礎亦增升至2.796萬億元的新幣值。
最近一周聯邦儲備資產總值雖微降，但仍維持在3.01萬億元的高水平。市場表現神經質的是，聯儲局聲言和行動都是繼續購入債券，那末債券價值應該保持高企，孳息率應維持在低水平，但是事實又不是那麼一回事。
上
周令人注目的是，美10年期債券孳息率重上並企穩在2.04厘水平，為去年4月以來的高點。30年期債券孳息率也重上並企穩在3.21厘水平，該年期的債
券價格更跌破144.94的關鍵支持點，上周低收報142.04。換言之，不管聯儲局是否繼續其寬鬆舉措，美國債券價格從高位回落，而孳息率從低谷回升已
形成趨勢。
儘管事情充滿着神經質，但可預見此趨勢將有利於股市，而金銀相對被冷落則是可理解的。
黃金相對被冷落
黃金相對被冷落可為事實證明，期金市的未平倉合約量從1月22日近期高峰的46.13萬張高峰，大幅減縮到上周四42.41萬張水平，ETFs的持金總量也從高峰下滑。
如
此一來，金價在大好消息下最終無法再次問鼎1700元關是可以理解的，估計稍後一段時間還將在1626元至1697元之間的範圍內上落，短期波動更可能在
1652元至1684元的範圍內。萬一近日金價低試到1640元水平，須提防再向低檔位下試，除非金價升越1703元才會結束近數月的調整期。
銀
價表現與商品指數的表現較近似，故與金市稍有別，前者的未平倉合約量現處於今年以來的偏高水平，惟業者又再加大淨空倉量。估計稍後一段時間銀價主要還在
30.5元至32.5元之間的範圍內上落，萬一低於30.15元便要提防再向下試，除非其後銀價攻克33.34元阻力，並進一步升越33.8元才會結束近
數月的調整期。
下周一為新年初二假期無報，敝欄要到2月18日才與讀者再見，在此預祝各位新春萬事勝意！
鉅亨看世界─營養黃金
在玻利維亞的沙漠中，一望無際的藜麥翻飛，構成美麗的景色。成熟的藜麥可比人高，開著一球球的花，色調鮮豔，從紫、橘到黃都有。藜麥能在最艱困的環 境下成長，能承受夜晚的結霜與白天40度高溫折磨。它生長在海拔3600公尺以上的高山地區，那兒空氣稀薄、水源缺乏、土壤含高鹽分，除了藜麥，什麼也長 不了。
英國《衛報》報導，藜麥的全球大流行，使其價格上翻 3 倍，這也意味原產地的祕魯和玻利維亞人們會選擇種植藜麥出口，而非將它當做食物。但他們的飲食原本已相當單薄，再這樣做，可能導致面臨營養不良的問題。同 時也因藜麥帶來豐厚利潤，造成當地土地濫伐，人們甚至為一片荒土出手打架。
■完美食物身價大不同
玻利維亞的藜麥與有機農產品出口局主管 Paola Mejia 說，藜麥為該國最貧困偏遠地區的人們帶來希望。
只生長在玻利維亞南部乾旱地區的皇家藜麥 (Royal quinoa)，它在榖類中的地位有如白鱘魚子醬一樣珍貴，比一般藜麥含有更多蛋白質、維他命及礦物質。
2011 年，藜麥平均價格為每噸 3115 美元，是 2006 年價格的 3 倍。其他有顏色的品種則更貴。紅色皇家藜麥每噸要價 4500 美元，黑色品種價格則高達 8000 美元。在玻利維亞 Oruro 與 Potosi 地區，藜麥是他們的維生之計。
世界的舞台上，藜麥正當紅。聯合國糧農組織認證此種作物易於種植，適應性強，並且是對抗饑荒與營養不良的最佳食品。聯合國也把今年定為藜麥之年。
玻利維亞總統 Evo Morales 也推廣食用藜麥，他指出，多年來藜麥都受人輕視，認為是過去土著才栽種的作物，但現在世界重新認識了它，也了解它是維繫生命最重要的食物。
然而，種植這完美食物已有 5000 年歷史的農人們，自己卻愈來愈少吃藜麥了。在玻利維亞人民收入條件改善下，他們的飲食習慣也已西化。亦身為農業學家的 Mejia 說，10 年前人們別無選擇只能吃藜麥，但是現在他們想吃米飯、麵條、糖果可樂……什麼都想吃。
藜麥農場經營者 Daysi Munoz 也同意，他指出，隨著藜麥的價格上揚，玻利維亞當地愈來愈少人吃藜麥，因為售出藜麥的所得能買更多米與麵，也自然就把它當做經濟作物，而非食物。
在的的喀喀湖附近一個名為 Lacaya 的小村莊，當地農夫也開始種藜麥了。由於這裡的土地較為濕潤，他們所種的甜藜 (quinua dulce) 生長也較快；不過， 還是比不上皇家藜麥來得搶手。
農人 Petrona Uriche 說，自 3 年前，他的村莊也開始種植賺錢的藜麥，而且專門種來出口。現在一袋藜麥的價錢比幾年前上漲了 8 倍，平均 1 公斤可賣 2 美元。
不過基於國民健康因素，玻利維亞政府正在努力宣導，希望該國國民能重拾食用藜麥的習慣。據該國農業發展部數據，年度國民平均藜麥食用量成長 4 倍，從 0.35 公斤增加至 1.11 公斤，但國內總消耗量卻在 5 年內下降了 1/3。
■讓藜麥下凡
在玻利維亞首都拉巴斯 (La Paz) 的超市貨架上，由藜麥為原料製成的比薩餅皮、漢堡、袋餅餅皮、早餐穀片等產品琳瑯滿目，看來，該國主要的藜麥食用者是中產階級。
但在祕魯首都利瑪 (Lima)，消費者則抱怨藜麥是有錢人才吃得起的昂貴食物。每公斤要價 10 元祕魯新索爾 (約 3.92 美元)，比 7.8 元新索爾的雞肉還貴。祕魯官方數據則顯示，該國國民食用藜麥消耗量下降了。
祕魯農業部副部長 Juan Rheineck 說，在較貧窮的地區，人們買不起日益昂貴的藜麥，但政府正努力消弭這種情形。祕魯政府也補助利瑪一間兒童之家的伙食，讓孩童們能吃到水煮蛋、藜麥、蘋果汁等營養食品，以推廣營養早餐。
祕魯政府努力提升孩童的營養狀況，2011 年 5 歲以下孩童的慢性營養不良率已經降至 16.5%，但在貧窮地區，兒童營養不良還是相當常見。而據世界銀行資料，玻利維亞有 27.2% 的 5 歲以下孩童苦於慢性營養不良問題。
祕魯第一夫人 Nadine Heredia 正努力推行增進嬰兒健康的安地斯飲食宣導計畫，其中藜麥正是主要食材。2012 年，祕魯由藜麥出口賺進約 3500 萬美元，是 3 年前的 3 倍。玻利維亞的藜麥出口量也成長至 2.3 萬噸，帶來 8500 萬美元的收益。
但專家指出，若想滿足國際上日益成長的需求與壓低當地的供應價格，玻利維亞與祕魯都需再增加藜麥產量。玻利維亞政府表示，已對 7 萬位以上的農人提供總共 500 萬美元貸款，也希望能將藜麥製品工業化生產，增加更多附加價值。
油氣與礦產是玻利維亞兩大重點出口商品，但 Meija 相信，若供應全球一半藜麥需求的玻利維亞全力推動藜麥農業，不出 10 年，藜麥出口量就可超越天然氣與礦產。(文：黃欣)
王冠一 美債暗湧 美日靠攏
【明報專訊】美國只會願意為美國國債的忠實買家提供服務。昔日中國經濟改革開放之初，靠廉價勞動力吸收全球製造業訂單，賺取外匯規模之大令人瞠目，而這個時期正是中國最「忠實」增持美國國債之時，中美關係縱使時有爭拗，但整體關係尚算融洽。
但最近一兩年，中國對購買美債的立場開始生變，把中國外匯分散投資的呼聲不絕於耳。作為美債最大債權國，中國任何沽售美債的舉動，勢必動搖美債的市場價值，直接傷害美國利益。
日本政壇再變天，捲土重來的自民黨首相安倍晉三，以迅雷不及掩耳之勢，在短短三個月光景，只靠張嘴便成功把美元兌日圓由80以下水平，一口氣推回至90以上。日圓匯價轉弱，日本企業固然叫好，不過，美國對日圓急劇貶值，竟出乎意料地寬容。
日圓急插 美國寬容
日本央行承諾明年起落實無限期推出量寬措施，並且把通脹目標定於2％(以目前的通脹水平計，目標頗不切實際)。換言之，日本央行的無限期量寬肯定會持續一段長時間。日本央行從市場購入日本國債或國庫票據，從而增加貨幣供應。但值得細嚼之處是，日本銀行將會更輕易獲得大量便宜日鈔，在預期日圓匯價轉弱的情下，銀行自然會把相關的日圓，改為購入其他幣值的資產，以對畄貶值風險。結果可想而知，美國國債極有可能成為日本銀行資產負債表內的新寵。
日央行對畄 美債成新寵
有了日本這個強大後盾，美國暫時有條件跟中國繼續就亞太區的領導地位討價還價，不用過於擔心中國以拋售美債作威脅。偏偏安倍大打民族牌爭取民望，美 國看在美債份上，當然要為日本站台。中美日這種由美債利益連繫覑的三角關係，正好解釋了近期以釣魚台為核心的主權爭拗為何一直沒有解決舻象。
量寬與通脹 無必然關係
美日關係進一步靠攏，其實有舻可尋，並非單純因為中國的因素。要知道日本是實行量寬的鼻祖，美國推行量寬亦只不過是依樣畫葫蘆。一般人認為，量寬因 為涉及印銀紙行為，所以貨幣理應貶值，物價理應上漲。不過，事實證明，日本央行實行了20年量寬，結果日本的通縮亦長達20年；美國聯儲局實行了量寬近4 年，結果通脹一直未見惡化。關鍵在於量寬製造的貨幣供應效果，並未從金融界擴散至實體經濟，所以量寬其實跟通脹，沒有必然關係。
直至最近，美日兩國忽然大打通脹牌：日本表明以2％為通脹目標；聯儲局則暗示超低息環境要維持至失業率至少回落至6.5％，與及通脹率回升至2％至 2.5％左右。似乎反映兩國的貨幣政策步入一個新階段：冀透過通脹預期刺激國民消費需求，為日後強化美日兩國以至親美陣營的多邊貿易活動鋪路。如果朝這個 方向繼續發展下去，中國作為世界工廠的地位將會愈來愈失色，而中國在亞太區內的貿易角色，亦有可能逐漸被以美日為首的親美貿易陣營邊緣化。
王冠一
冠一資產管理首席策略師
www.wongsir.com.hk
日本政壇再變天，捲土重來的自民黨首相安倍晉三，以迅雷不及掩耳之勢，在短短三個月光景，只靠張嘴便成功把美元兌日圓由80以下水平，一口氣推回至90以上。日圓匯價轉弱，日本企業固然叫好，不過，美國對日圓急劇貶值，竟出乎意料地寬容。
日圓急插 美國寬容
日本央行承諾明年起落實無限期推出量寬措施，並且把通脹目標定於2％(以目前的通脹水平計，目標頗不切實際)。換言之，日本央行的無限期量寬肯定會持續一段長時間。日本央行從市場購入日本國債或國庫票據，從而增加貨幣供應。但值得細嚼之處是，日本銀行將會更輕易獲得大量便宜日鈔，在預期日圓匯價轉弱的情下，銀行自然會把相關的日圓，改為購入其他幣值的資產，以對畄貶值風險。結果可想而知，美國國債極有可能成為日本銀行資產負債表內的新寵。
日央行對畄 美債成新寵
有了日本這個強大後盾，美國暫時有條件跟中國繼續就亞太區的領導地位討價還價，不用過於擔心中國以拋售美債作威脅。偏偏安倍大打民族牌爭取民望，美 國看在美債份上，當然要為日本站台。中美日這種由美債利益連繫覑的三角關係，正好解釋了近期以釣魚台為核心的主權爭拗為何一直沒有解決舻象。
量寬與通脹 無必然關係
美日關係進一步靠攏，其實有舻可尋，並非單純因為中國的因素。要知道日本是實行量寬的鼻祖，美國推行量寬亦只不過是依樣畫葫蘆。一般人認為，量寬因 為涉及印銀紙行為，所以貨幣理應貶值，物價理應上漲。不過，事實證明，日本央行實行了20年量寬，結果日本的通縮亦長達20年；美國聯儲局實行了量寬近4 年，結果通脹一直未見惡化。關鍵在於量寬製造的貨幣供應效果，並未從金融界擴散至實體經濟，所以量寬其實跟通脹，沒有必然關係。
直至最近，美日兩國忽然大打通脹牌：日本表明以2％為通脹目標；聯儲局則暗示超低息環境要維持至失業率至少回落至6.5％，與及通脹率回升至2％至 2.5％左右。似乎反映兩國的貨幣政策步入一個新階段：冀透過通脹預期刺激國民消費需求，為日後強化美日兩國以至親美陣營的多邊貿易活動鋪路。如果朝這個 方向繼續發展下去，中國作為世界工廠的地位將會愈來愈失色，而中國在亞太區內的貿易角色，亦有可能逐漸被以美日為首的親美貿易陣營邊緣化。
王冠一
冠一資產管理首席策略師
www.wongsir.com.hk
格羅斯新年經濟預測——信貸超新星即將破滅
By Pimco 格羅斯
這是世界結束的方式...
沒有伴隨著大爆炸，而只有絲絲的啜泣聲。
大家總說時間就是金錢。但大家從來不說，金錢可以令時間消逝。
現代全球金融的特徵——部分準備金系統，可能是自然進化的結果。很像在140億年前大爆炸誕生的宇宙，但宇宙擴張得太快了，很多科學家預測在數万億年以後，宇宙將進入一個“大冰河期”。而我們現在的貨幣系統看起來也需要永久性的擴張才能保持它的存在。宇宙中存在熵增加原理，實際上可能意味著信貸市場中“能量”與“熱能”也存在類似的下降。如果是這樣，那麼糾纏在其中的債權人、債務人和投資者的合理反應，都應該是理性地分析經濟系統改變對經濟和投資的潛在影響。
在細說我們的貨幣系統可能將怎麼改變前，我們首先描述一下信貸市場的開端——“大爆炸”，這就能更近距離地了解這個系統的歷史變化。在現代部分準備金銀行系統中，信貸的創造是從存款開始的，通過槓桿化，銀行就能不斷擴張存款來獲得利潤。銀行或其它貸款者並不會一直在“保險箱”裡持有100%的客戶存款——其實保險箱裡的現金只佔存款很小的比例，所以被稱為“部分準備金”。從第一筆存款開始，貸款總額可以擴張10倍或者更多，這相當於現代金融系統的“大爆炸”。要確定這種金融模式是什麼時候開始的，可能比確定宇宙的年齡還要困難，但是在“發明”中央銀行製度以後（美國在1913年成立美聯儲），無疑加速了這種金融模式的發展。有了央行，市場對金融系統的信心大幅上升，因為央行成為了給金融市場和實體經濟提供支持的最後貸款者。在今天全球化的經濟系統中，銀行和央行仍然維持著重要的位置。
但銀行和央行存在一個天生的不穩定性，因為這個模式需要永久性地創造越來越多的信貸來維持這個模式的生存。從第一筆存款產生的最初貸款，它們的收益率大多是與實體經濟增長水平是相近的，這個過程給經濟創造了真實的財富。貸款者要求收益因為它們承擔了風險，而藉款者有信心他們企業的利潤水平將會高於貸款的利息支出。在很多案例中，獲得貸款的企業都獲得了成功。但邏輯上地說，整體經濟的增速並不一定會快於支付給債權人實際利息的增速，加上還要滿足股權持有人接近兩位數的回報率，才能維持最初的槓桿（股權的價值），除非企業不斷增加借貸來支付這些回報。舉債度日，但金融系統中幾乎沒有人理解這樣做的深遠影響。
經濟學家Hyman Minsky清醒地指出了問題。現在信貸不斷擴張，利用Minsky複雜的經濟模型分析，可以得到我們現在正處於所謂的龐氏融資階段。首先，Minsky表示， 如果系統的借款規模比較小，同時是相對可自我持續的，這個階段應該稱為“對沖”融資階段。接著，系統的膽子會越來越大，不斷增加槓桿進入“投機”融資模式，也就是需要更多的信貸用於歸還之前到期的貸款。最後，當需要新增信貸來覆蓋越來越沉重的利息支出，結果導致通脹水平開始失控，這個最後階段就是“龐氏”融資。
Minsky的理論是在1971年美元價格與金價脫鉤不久以後建立了，距今已經接近半個世紀了。 Minsky的理論主要是一個週期性模型——經濟出現衰退以後，一旦系統的槓桿率降低，經濟就會快速復蘇。這是上世紀的情況。 Minsky可能沒想到，美國信貸創造規模的長期增長是指數級的，而不是線性的，如下圖所示。 （其它發達經濟體的歷史信貸規模增長都是相似的。）金融系統過去一直存在周期性的去槓桿化，在沃爾克擔任美聯儲主席的時期（1979-1987），去槓桿化的事件都是比較溫和的。 Minsky 也在上世紀70年代構建了他的理論，那時候美國的總信貸規模只有3萬億美元。今天美國的總信貸規模為56萬億美元（不包括影子影子的負債數據，約為20-30萬億美元），而且還在不斷增加，美國的負債已經在變成了一隻體型失控的怪獸，一顆不斷膨脹的超新星其實也開始在蠶食自己。現在每增加一美元的信貸看起來能提供的熱量越來越少了。在上世紀80年代，每新增四美元的信貸就能製造一美元的真實GDP增長。在過去的十年裡，這個數字增加到十美元，從2006年起，需要新增20美元信貸才能獲得相同的效果。在2013年，Minsky的龐氏融資將越來越多地流向債權人和市場投機者，越來越少流向實體經濟。這個“信貸新常態”就像熵越來越高的宇宙，新信貸能產生的“熱量”和真實增長逐年減少：過去50年的平均真實增長為3.5%，而現在只有2%，未來的增長率很可能更低。
現在，不僅貸款者提供越來越多的“貧血”信貸，而且零利率也在衝擊存戶和金融業的原有商業模式——不能給存戶提供正的真實利率回報，同時壓縮了金融業的利潤率水平。銀行的淨息差在不斷收窄；保險公司的債務開始威脅股權價格；除非監管機構干預，不然企業必須增加支出，填補退休金計劃資金缺口。接下來可能會出現真實經濟增長的逐步崩潰，因為企業會解僱更多僱員，銀行會關閉部分業務，業務的整合能實現不需要新增大量勞動力和廠房的擴張。實際上，信貸創造最初的神奇效果已經變得不再神奇了，在某些情況下會變得具有破壞性，甚至開始蠶食信貸市場的邊際收益和部分實體經濟創造的財富。日本最近十多年的經濟情況，就是零利率帶來的負面影響的最好近代例子。在日本維持零利率的十多年裡，生產性廠房和設備的投資規模都出現了大幅的下滑，如下圖所示，這就是最好的證據。日本信貸市場的超新星，破滅以後便不斷自我收縮。其它發達經濟體的資金和信貸也在丟失“熱量”，並令時間消逝，其中包括美國。
（左圖日本，右圖美國都出現了類似的投資佔GDP總規模佔比下滑的情況）
格羅斯新年經濟預測——信貸泡沫下的投資策略
如果上文所說是正確的，那麼接下來的問題肯定是：這種金錢和信貸的模式還能持續多久？在這段時間裡如何影響投資判斷？首先，我承認，上文這個超新星寓言具有一定的啟發性，但並不是實實在在存在的。全球貨幣系統的終結遠不在眼前。但熵的特徵是最有說服力的。現在，信貸越來越多地流向市場投機者，而不是流向簡單的收益或“套利機會”，而收益和“套利機會”才是維持現有金融系統發展趨勢和生命的關鍵。投資銀行在10年前還是幫助中小企業發展和上市的金融機構，而現在卻主導了高槓桿投機行為和龐氏融資行為。
所以，現在以信貸為基礎的金融市場，和依賴金融市場提供高槓桿、脆弱和不斷增加的熵支持的實體經濟，正在耗盡它們的能量和時間。當可投資的資產變得風險太高而收益太低，當貸款者放棄信貸市場而尋求進入其它市場（比如說現金或房地產），那麼這個模式的倒計時就開始了。
邏輯上說，債權人能首先看到的現像是：1）長期債券的收益率相對於久期風險太低了；2）信貸利差相對於違約風險太低了；3）市盈率相對於增長水平風險太高了。不一定會馬上終結，但久而久之，信貸的價值會越來越低，很多持有信貸的債權人可能會轉向投資房地產、黃金或鑽石。投資者也可能轉向投資以其它貨幣定價的信貸市場。如果這樣，美國國內金融系統將出現去槓桿化，因為投資者將不再願意投資信貸產品了。除非央行和不斷擴張信貸規模的銀行能利用它們持有的數万億美元、歐元和日元現金刺激經濟產生真實增長，最起碼要產生名義增長，否則信貸市場的熵風險（新增信貸轉化為增長的效率變低）將會繼續上升。
時間因素是關鍵的，因為支持系統的投資者和投機者不一定要長期參與這種支持信貸低效擴張的活動。我們經常問自己，我們還能做什麼，我們怎麼投資才能避免金融壓制和高達-2%負實際利率的影響。選擇是很多的：持有現金有助於防範經濟通脹性擴張，或相反，持有長期國債防範通縮性經濟泡沫爆破；持有固定資產（包括黃金、鑽石等）；持有新興經濟體股票等。 Pimco的一位投資委員會成員甚至發誓將會購買紐西蘭的地皮。包括我們在內，大部分投資者都不會這麼做。其實，Pimco和很多其它專業投資者一樣，在很多情況都是被指數所約束，因此也被約束在久期和風險之中。我們在經營一個主要以信貸為基礎的世界，當信貸開始失去能量，我們和我們的客戶都應該注意到系統中熵的存在，熵的存在意味著，必須接受更低的債券、股票、固定資產、衍生品交易策略的回報，這些策略都將很可能不能再產生兩位數的回報了。
然而，投資者不能簡單地向熵增加的命運低頭。時間可能正在消逝，但時間仍然是金錢。下面是一些建議：
1）為最終的高通脹做好準備：信貸超新星的破滅很可能會產生高通脹，而不是高增長，出現通脹的機會也比通縮的機會大多了。在債券投資上，應該購買通脹保護國債（TIPS）；應該縮短債券投資的久期和期限；不要與央行對抗——在央行購買前購買；尋求國外的主權債務投資機會，特別是能提供正實際利率的（比如說墨西哥、意大利、巴西）。
2）習慣更低的實際增長水平：QE操作和零利率已經帶來了負面影響。把資金轉移到那些負債較少國家的貨幣和資產市場。澳大利亞、巴西、墨西哥和加拿大是主要候選國。
3）投資有穩定現金流的跨國公司股票，雖然從歷史上來講回報率較低，但仍是相對吸引的回報。
4）如果可能的話，把部分金融投資轉向實物投資：購買一些可以儲存的投資（比如說黃金和其它商品），或投資其它不像信貸一樣能如此快速再生成的資產。
5）確認房產的所有權和政府的徵用政策。
6）鑑別現代信貸系統中的超新星特徵。在某個時點，這個特徵可能出現變化。歸納總結如下:1）為什麼我們的信貸市場正在耗盡熱量或能源？
a)因為信貸市場以每年數万億美元的速度膨脹，但實體經濟的增長卻無法跟上這個速度。越來越多信貸流向了支付利息，而不是未來的投資。
b)為了促進信貸創造而實施QE操作製造的零利率環境，具有正面和負面的雙重影響。對過去商業模式的影響是負面的，同時投資支出會大幅下滑。
c)看一下日本最近十多年的歷史。2）投資者應該考慮的選擇？
a）在信貸市場和通過縮短久期來尋求通脹保護。
b）小幅增加固定資產、商品和具有穩定現金流股票的頭寸。
c）在投資組合規劃中，接受較低的未來回報。
這是世界結束的方式...
沒有伴隨著大爆炸，而只有絲絲的啜泣聲。
大家總說時間就是金錢。但大家從來不說，金錢可以令時間消逝。
現代全球金融的特徵——部分準備金系統，可能是自然進化的結果。很像在140億年前大爆炸誕生的宇宙，但宇宙擴張得太快了，很多科學家預測在數万億年以後，宇宙將進入一個“大冰河期”。而我們現在的貨幣系統看起來也需要永久性的擴張才能保持它的存在。宇宙中存在熵增加原理，實際上可能意味著信貸市場中“能量”與“熱能”也存在類似的下降。如果是這樣，那麼糾纏在其中的債權人、債務人和投資者的合理反應，都應該是理性地分析經濟系統改變對經濟和投資的潛在影響。
在細說我們的貨幣系統可能將怎麼改變前，我們首先描述一下信貸市場的開端——“大爆炸”，這就能更近距離地了解這個系統的歷史變化。在現代部分準備金銀行系統中，信貸的創造是從存款開始的，通過槓桿化，銀行就能不斷擴張存款來獲得利潤。銀行或其它貸款者並不會一直在“保險箱”裡持有100%的客戶存款——其實保險箱裡的現金只佔存款很小的比例，所以被稱為“部分準備金”。從第一筆存款開始，貸款總額可以擴張10倍或者更多，這相當於現代金融系統的“大爆炸”。要確定這種金融模式是什麼時候開始的，可能比確定宇宙的年齡還要困難，但是在“發明”中央銀行製度以後（美國在1913年成立美聯儲），無疑加速了這種金融模式的發展。有了央行，市場對金融系統的信心大幅上升，因為央行成為了給金融市場和實體經濟提供支持的最後貸款者。在今天全球化的經濟系統中，銀行和央行仍然維持著重要的位置。
但銀行和央行存在一個天生的不穩定性，因為這個模式需要永久性地創造越來越多的信貸來維持這個模式的生存。從第一筆存款產生的最初貸款，它們的收益率大多是與實體經濟增長水平是相近的，這個過程給經濟創造了真實的財富。貸款者要求收益因為它們承擔了風險，而藉款者有信心他們企業的利潤水平將會高於貸款的利息支出。在很多案例中，獲得貸款的企業都獲得了成功。但邏輯上地說，整體經濟的增速並不一定會快於支付給債權人實際利息的增速，加上還要滿足股權持有人接近兩位數的回報率，才能維持最初的槓桿（股權的價值），除非企業不斷增加借貸來支付這些回報。舉債度日，但金融系統中幾乎沒有人理解這樣做的深遠影響。
經濟學家Hyman Minsky清醒地指出了問題。現在信貸不斷擴張，利用Minsky複雜的經濟模型分析，可以得到我們現在正處於所謂的龐氏融資階段。首先，Minsky表示， 如果系統的借款規模比較小，同時是相對可自我持續的，這個階段應該稱為“對沖”融資階段。接著，系統的膽子會越來越大，不斷增加槓桿進入“投機”融資模式，也就是需要更多的信貸用於歸還之前到期的貸款。最後，當需要新增信貸來覆蓋越來越沉重的利息支出，結果導致通脹水平開始失控，這個最後階段就是“龐氏”融資。
Minsky的理論是在1971年美元價格與金價脫鉤不久以後建立了，距今已經接近半個世紀了。 Minsky的理論主要是一個週期性模型——經濟出現衰退以後，一旦系統的槓桿率降低，經濟就會快速復蘇。這是上世紀的情況。 Minsky可能沒想到，美國信貸創造規模的長期增長是指數級的，而不是線性的，如下圖所示。 （其它發達經濟體的歷史信貸規模增長都是相似的。）金融系統過去一直存在周期性的去槓桿化，在沃爾克擔任美聯儲主席的時期（1979-1987），去槓桿化的事件都是比較溫和的。 Minsky 也在上世紀70年代構建了他的理論，那時候美國的總信貸規模只有3萬億美元。今天美國的總信貸規模為56萬億美元（不包括影子影子的負債數據，約為20-30萬億美元），而且還在不斷增加，美國的負債已經在變成了一隻體型失控的怪獸，一顆不斷膨脹的超新星其實也開始在蠶食自己。現在每增加一美元的信貸看起來能提供的熱量越來越少了。在上世紀80年代，每新增四美元的信貸就能製造一美元的真實GDP增長。在過去的十年裡，這個數字增加到十美元，從2006年起，需要新增20美元信貸才能獲得相同的效果。在2013年，Minsky的龐氏融資將越來越多地流向債權人和市場投機者，越來越少流向實體經濟。這個“信貸新常態”就像熵越來越高的宇宙，新信貸能產生的“熱量”和真實增長逐年減少：過去50年的平均真實增長為3.5%，而現在只有2%，未來的增長率很可能更低。
現在，不僅貸款者提供越來越多的“貧血”信貸，而且零利率也在衝擊存戶和金融業的原有商業模式——不能給存戶提供正的真實利率回報，同時壓縮了金融業的利潤率水平。銀行的淨息差在不斷收窄；保險公司的債務開始威脅股權價格；除非監管機構干預，不然企業必須增加支出，填補退休金計劃資金缺口。接下來可能會出現真實經濟增長的逐步崩潰，因為企業會解僱更多僱員，銀行會關閉部分業務，業務的整合能實現不需要新增大量勞動力和廠房的擴張。實際上，信貸創造最初的神奇效果已經變得不再神奇了，在某些情況下會變得具有破壞性，甚至開始蠶食信貸市場的邊際收益和部分實體經濟創造的財富。日本最近十多年的經濟情況，就是零利率帶來的負面影響的最好近代例子。在日本維持零利率的十多年裡，生產性廠房和設備的投資規模都出現了大幅的下滑，如下圖所示，這就是最好的證據。日本信貸市場的超新星，破滅以後便不斷自我收縮。其它發達經濟體的資金和信貸也在丟失“熱量”，並令時間消逝，其中包括美國。
（左圖日本，右圖美國都出現了類似的投資佔GDP總規模佔比下滑的情況）
格羅斯新年經濟預測——信貸泡沫下的投資策略
如果上文所說是正確的，那麼接下來的問題肯定是：這種金錢和信貸的模式還能持續多久？在這段時間裡如何影響投資判斷？首先，我承認，上文這個超新星寓言具有一定的啟發性，但並不是實實在在存在的。全球貨幣系統的終結遠不在眼前。但熵的特徵是最有說服力的。現在，信貸越來越多地流向市場投機者，而不是流向簡單的收益或“套利機會”，而收益和“套利機會”才是維持現有金融系統發展趨勢和生命的關鍵。投資銀行在10年前還是幫助中小企業發展和上市的金融機構，而現在卻主導了高槓桿投機行為和龐氏融資行為。
所以，現在以信貸為基礎的金融市場，和依賴金融市場提供高槓桿、脆弱和不斷增加的熵支持的實體經濟，正在耗盡它們的能量和時間。當可投資的資產變得風險太高而收益太低，當貸款者放棄信貸市場而尋求進入其它市場（比如說現金或房地產），那麼這個模式的倒計時就開始了。
邏輯上說，債權人能首先看到的現像是：1）長期債券的收益率相對於久期風險太低了；2）信貸利差相對於違約風險太低了；3）市盈率相對於增長水平風險太高了。不一定會馬上終結，但久而久之，信貸的價值會越來越低，很多持有信貸的債權人可能會轉向投資房地產、黃金或鑽石。投資者也可能轉向投資以其它貨幣定價的信貸市場。如果這樣，美國國內金融系統將出現去槓桿化，因為投資者將不再願意投資信貸產品了。除非央行和不斷擴張信貸規模的銀行能利用它們持有的數万億美元、歐元和日元現金刺激經濟產生真實增長，最起碼要產生名義增長，否則信貸市場的熵風險（新增信貸轉化為增長的效率變低）將會繼續上升。
時間因素是關鍵的，因為支持系統的投資者和投機者不一定要長期參與這種支持信貸低效擴張的活動。我們經常問自己，我們還能做什麼，我們怎麼投資才能避免金融壓制和高達-2%負實際利率的影響。選擇是很多的：持有現金有助於防範經濟通脹性擴張，或相反，持有長期國債防範通縮性經濟泡沫爆破；持有固定資產（包括黃金、鑽石等）；持有新興經濟體股票等。 Pimco的一位投資委員會成員甚至發誓將會購買紐西蘭的地皮。包括我們在內，大部分投資者都不會這麼做。其實，Pimco和很多其它專業投資者一樣，在很多情況都是被指數所約束，因此也被約束在久期和風險之中。我們在經營一個主要以信貸為基礎的世界，當信貸開始失去能量，我們和我們的客戶都應該注意到系統中熵的存在，熵的存在意味著，必須接受更低的債券、股票、固定資產、衍生品交易策略的回報，這些策略都將很可能不能再產生兩位數的回報了。
然而，投資者不能簡單地向熵增加的命運低頭。時間可能正在消逝，但時間仍然是金錢。下面是一些建議：
1）為最終的高通脹做好準備：信貸超新星的破滅很可能會產生高通脹，而不是高增長，出現通脹的機會也比通縮的機會大多了。在債券投資上，應該購買通脹保護國債（TIPS）；應該縮短債券投資的久期和期限；不要與央行對抗——在央行購買前購買；尋求國外的主權債務投資機會，特別是能提供正實際利率的（比如說墨西哥、意大利、巴西）。
2）習慣更低的實際增長水平：QE操作和零利率已經帶來了負面影響。把資金轉移到那些負債較少國家的貨幣和資產市場。澳大利亞、巴西、墨西哥和加拿大是主要候選國。
3）投資有穩定現金流的跨國公司股票，雖然從歷史上來講回報率較低，但仍是相對吸引的回報。
4）如果可能的話，把部分金融投資轉向實物投資：購買一些可以儲存的投資（比如說黃金和其它商品），或投資其它不像信貸一樣能如此快速再生成的資產。
5）確認房產的所有權和政府的徵用政策。
6）鑑別現代信貸系統中的超新星特徵。在某個時點，這個特徵可能出現變化。歸納總結如下:1）為什麼我們的信貸市場正在耗盡熱量或能源？
a)因為信貸市場以每年數万億美元的速度膨脹，但實體經濟的增長卻無法跟上這個速度。越來越多信貸流向了支付利息，而不是未來的投資。
b)為了促進信貸創造而實施QE操作製造的零利率環境，具有正面和負面的雙重影響。對過去商業模式的影響是負面的，同時投資支出會大幅下滑。
c)看一下日本最近十多年的歷史。2）投資者應該考慮的選擇？
a）在信貸市場和通過縮短久期來尋求通脹保護。
b）小幅增加固定資產、商品和具有穩定現金流股票的頭寸。
c）在投資組合規劃中，接受較低的未來回報。
Global Silver Mining Trends- A Comprehensive Analysis of World Silver Production Since 2001
Submitted by Adam Hamilton, Zeal
A MUST READ analysis of global silver mining production since 2001 over the world’s top silver producing nations.
Over the course of silver’s secular bull, the miners have steadily increased production in order to meet fast-growing demand. And in 2012 while US production declined, global silver mine production exceeded 24k metric tons (770m+ ounces), an all-time production high and 28% increase over 2001. As an investor interested in silver’s structural fundamentals, this rapid growth begs a question. Where in the world is this silver coming from?
In our modern information age we can ask questions like this and easily find the answer. And we need look no farther than the data provided by the U.S. Geological Survey. The USGS is a global authority in collecting, analyzing, and disseminating information on both domestic and international mineral supply and demand. And for silver it dutifully provides annual detailed country-level mine production data.
My preferred way to distill data like this is visually, via crafting a custom chart to paint a clear picture. And in the chart below I plot the bull-to-date global silver-mining trends for the world’s top dozen silver producers using the USGS’s initial 2012 estimates that were released just this week.
With production volume scattered across such a wide spectrum, I indexed each country’s output at 100 beginning in 2001 (the first year of silver’s secular bull). If a country is at 125, its silver mine production is up 25%. And inversely if it’s at 75, it is down 25%. Indexing ultimately allows us to easily compare the production trends of the top producers on a single chart.
Also included in this chart is the raw production data of the world’s top silver miners. And it is important to note that these 12 countries are responsible for the lion’s share of mined supply, their combined total accounting for 90% (21.4k mt). Interestingly #12 Canada produces nearly twice as much as the next closest country. In fact, only 5 countries outside the top dozen actually produce greater than 100 mt of silver annually.
Starting at the top, you’ll notice that silver mine production is dominated by three countries. And Mexico, China, and Peru have long been the three-headed monster of the silver market. Back when silver’s bull began in 2001 these three countries were the leaders, accounting for about one-third of the global mined supply. And as a result of strong growth from each over the last decade, they remain the leaders while accounting for now nearly half of the mined supply.
Mexico comfortably sits atop the silver-mining world. This country is host to massive silver belts, including the illustrious Sierra Madre belt that flanks the Sierra Madre Occidental mountain range. Silver has long been one of Mexico’s major exports, dating as far back as the 16th century when the Spanish colonials shipped it back to their homeland via large galleons.
It is believed that about one-third of all silver mined in the history of the world has come from Mexico. But even with such rich history, this country’s silver mineralization is nowhere near depleted. The miners continue to make big discoveries. And these discoveries have great economics as seen by 50%+ production growth over the last decade.
Mexico’s prominence is also apparent in its continued attractiveness to the juniors. In my latest round of research focused on junior silver explorers, I found Mexico to be the top destination for these companies. With Mexico’s plush geology and friendly mining laws, about half of all silver juniors own a project in Mexico.
In the #2 spot we find China. And per the USGS’s latest update to 2011’s numbers that increased Chinese production and lowered Peruvian production, it turns out that 2012 was China’s second year in a row as runner up to Mexico. This is quite notable, as China had never before cracked the top two. With Mexico and Peru holding the top-two spots from 1999 to 2010, this is certainly a big shuffle at the top. China is no longer the third wheel!
China’s journey to #2 is the result of massive production growth, mainly via byproduct production from primary base-metals mines. Over the last 11 years its silver production has doubled, with the addition of 1.9k mt (61m ounces) to its annual output. By volume this growth is unmatched by any other country. And China’s silver production is expected to continue to rise, eventually giving Mexico a run for its money.
Rounding out the big three is Peru, where most of its silver is found high in the Andes Mountains. And Peru is certainly no slouch considering it had a recent stint as the world’s #1 silver producer, edging out Mexico from 2002 to 2009. Silver has long been engrained in Peru’s culture. In fact, the ancient Incans were so enthralled by this soft-white metal that they referred to it as the “tears of the moon”.
Peru’s production is up 34% since 2001. And though its output has trended down a bit over the last few years, the mining companies have had great success renewing their reserves and making new discoveries. With the world’s largest reserve base (120k mt), by far, Peru is highly likely to revisit its 2009 all-time production high in the near future.
Next up is Australia. And as you can see by its production trend, this country has been quite consistent over the last decade or so. Interestingly over half of Australia’s output comes from a single mine. And this massive Cannington mine owned by BHP Billiton ranks as the largest silver and lead mine in the world.
Russia has been one of the top performers by percentage growth over the course of silver’s bull. And considering this country’s huge geographical and geological potential, it sure ought to be among the top producers. Attributing to Russia’s nearly 300% bump in production is the restart of the massive Dukat mine and an increase in byproduct output from its large gold mines.
The South American country of Bolivia has grown to become a silver powerhouse over the last decade or so. And this is actually quite surprising considering its geopolitical issues over this same span. Large operations like Sumitomo’s San Cristobal mine and Coeur d’Alene’s San Bartolome mine successfully navigated their ways around Bolivia’s challenges to account for a big chunk of this country’s 200%+ growth since 2001.
Poland is another country where the bulk of its silver comes to market as a byproduct of primary base-metals mines. And nearly the entirety of its output comes from three massive copper mines that are owned by KGHM Polska. Poland’s flat production from an isolated source is a sign of consistency, yet also a clear display of fruitless exploration and/or new development.
Chile’s silver output has also been fairly consistent over the years, with much of its 16% decline coming just last year. A big chunk of Chile’s silver is a byproduct of its large copper and gold mines, however there are a handful of primary silver mines that do make material contributions.
Chile has struggled a bit with water, energy, and labor challenges, but these are typical Latin American growing pains that will work themselves out. Looking forward Chile will see a big boost in production in the near future once Barrick Gold finally gets its massive Pascua-Lama gold/silver mine online.
In the #9 spot is the United States. And as you see by its downward trend, the US has experienced quite a fall from silver prominence. Since 2001 US silver output is down an appalling 40%. And if you go back to its peak levels in the 1990s, things are even worse with a decline of well over 50%.
Provocatively prior to the turn of the 21st century silver’s big three were Mexico, Peru, and the US. China was not in the picture yet. In fact, as recently as 1997 the US was the world’s #2 silver producer, responsible for nearly 14% of the global mined supply that year.
It really is amazing that one of the world’s top silver producers could tumble in such epic fashion during one of the most powerful bull markets this metal has ever seen. Factoring into this decline is large-mine depletion, pinched economics for harder-to-access ore, regulatory burdens, and a lack of new discovery.
Though the US has several historic primary silver districts (the most prolific being in Idaho, Montana, and Colorado), they were the first to shut down during the bear-market years of the 1980s and 1990s. And as a result, the majority of the US’s silver these days is a byproduct of copper and gold mining. Making matters worse, the US’s production of both of these metals is also way down in recent years.
In stark contrast from the US, Argentina has seen incredible production growth over the last decade or so. Amazingly in 1998 it ranked as the world’s 27th largest silver producer, with output of only 36 mt. It really has come out of nowhere to join the world’s elite.
Argentina has actually long been known to host robust mineralized systems. Unfortunately as a result of antiquated mining laws it took awhile for the miners to realize the resources held within these systems. Thankfully Argentina’s decades-long lag behind its Latin American cohorts finally started to burn away following some big reforms in the 1990s. And when the miners finally got on the ground they found a wide range of mineral deposits, including several large ones that were primary silver.
Interestingly primary silver deposits are quite rare since this mineral is usually subservient to higher concentrations of accompanying base metals and/or gold. Less than a third of global mined silver actually comes from primary silver mines! Argentina is a geological exception though, with well over half its output coming from primary silver mines owned by such companies as Silver Standard, Pan American, and Hochschild.
Moving to Kazakhstan we see a material decline in production over the course of silver’s bull. Like Poland, the vast majority of Kazakhstan’s silver output comes from byproduct base-metals production from a single large company (Kazakymys). This massive country has great silver potential, but lacks attractiveness due to its precarious political environment.
Rounding out the top 12 is Canada. And like the US, Canada’s silver story tells of a fall from greatness. Mining historians will recall the great Cobalt Silver Rush early in the 20th century that made Canada a global silver powerhouse. And even as recently as 2002, the Great White North still held its head high as the world’s #5 silver producer.
Unfortunately many of the same things that plagued the US also hit Canada hard. And with primary silver mines now all but extinct (the exception being the recently revived Keno Hill camp) coupled with declines in byproduct output, Canada has seen a staggering 60% plunge in silver production.
Overall silver’s global mining trends are quite revealing in the grand scheme of this metal’s structural fundamentals. There have been some great growth stories, and some pretty alarming declines. And as investors the information we get by drilling down into country-level dynamics can certainly assist in our trading decisions.
Since geographical logistics don’t matter much when it comes to investing in the physical metal, the trading I’m referring to involves the mining stocks. And believe me, mining companies are very sensitive to where in the world they seek to explore/develop/produce their silver.
One major takeaway we can gather from this information is that total output and/or growth rates don’t necessarily translate to opportunity for the miners. Some of these countries are host to geopolitical situations that all but block foreign investment. And some are producing silver solely as a byproduct, ultimately lacking geologically favorable primary silver deposits. These situations are not conducive to mining companies looking to directly leverage silver.
Another takeaway is that Latin America is definitely a silver hot spot these days. Some of the best growth trends are coming from this part of the world. This observation is further supported by the fact that in 2012 half the production from the top dozen came from Latin American countries. Back in 2001 they were only responsible for 43%.
One other observation I can add is somewhat counterintuitive to what the trends are showing. But per my recent research looking at the universe of silver juniors, I found there to be a lot of exploration activity in the countries that are the two biggest losers over the course of this bull. Nearly a third of all juniors have a project in the US, with nearly a third also having a project in Canada.
While the silver-mining industry in these upper North American countries is struggling, they both have a distinct advantage when it comes to exploration. The miners know where the silver is. The US and Canada both hold historic silver-mining districts that were shut down due to economics. These districts have plenty of resources remaining. And with higher prices and better technology, the juniors are finding great success in their exploration endeavors. I suspect we’ll see a US and Canada silver revival in the coming years that will finally turn around their decade-long downward trends.
At Zeal we love poring over data like this to give us better insights into a given sector. And we implement it into our exhaustive research that turns out high-probability-for-success stocks to trade in our newsletters. In our last two research reports profiling these stocks, our focus was on silver. And even amidst this downtrodden mining-stock environment, several silver stocks that we recommended in our newsletters are sporting excellent unrealized gains.
If you’d like the detailed fundamental profiles of our favorite silver stocks at your fingertips, buy your reports today! And if you crave a unique and exciting market tilt, something you won’t find with the mainstream herd, consider a subscription to our weekly and/or monthly newsletters. Investors all over the world have enjoyed our acclaimed contrarian market analysis and trade recommendations for over a decade! Get your subscription today!
The bottom line is global silver mine production is on the rise. And it is certainly interesting to see where in the world the silver is coming from. Just this week the USGS released its 2012 country-level production estimates, and these latest numbers tack onto some fascinating trends over the course of silver’s bull.
We are seeing a big shuffle at the top with China making a move. And the Latin American countries are continuing to show their force, now collectively responsible for over half of the world’s mined silver production. Drilling down on these country-level dynamics really helps us to better understand a big component of silver’s structural fundamentals. And with this knowledge we are better equipped to invest in this growing sector.
Scott Wright
February 1, 2013
So how can you profit from this information? We publish an acclaimed monthly newsletter, Zeal Intelligence, that details exactly what we are doing in terms of actual stock and options trading based on all the lessons we have learned in our market research as well as provides in-depth market analysis and commentary. Please consider joining us each month at … www.zealllc.com/subscribe.htm
Thoughts, comments, or flames? Fire away at scottq@zealllc.com . Depending on the volume of feedback I may not have time to respond personally, but I will read all messages. Thanks!
Copyright 2000 – 2013 Zeal Research (www.ZealLLC.com)
A MUST READ analysis of global silver mining production since 2001 over the world’s top silver producing nations.
Over the course of silver’s secular bull, the miners have steadily increased production in order to meet fast-growing demand. And in 2012 while US production declined, global silver mine production exceeded 24k metric tons (770m+ ounces), an all-time production high and 28% increase over 2001. As an investor interested in silver’s structural fundamentals, this rapid growth begs a question. Where in the world is this silver coming from?
In our modern information age we can ask questions like this and easily find the answer. And we need look no farther than the data provided by the U.S. Geological Survey. The USGS is a global authority in collecting, analyzing, and disseminating information on both domestic and international mineral supply and demand. And for silver it dutifully provides annual detailed country-level mine production data.
My preferred way to distill data like this is visually, via crafting a custom chart to paint a clear picture. And in the chart below I plot the bull-to-date global silver-mining trends for the world’s top dozen silver producers using the USGS’s initial 2012 estimates that were released just this week.
With production volume scattered across such a wide spectrum, I indexed each country’s output at 100 beginning in 2001 (the first year of silver’s secular bull). If a country is at 125, its silver mine production is up 25%. And inversely if it’s at 75, it is down 25%. Indexing ultimately allows us to easily compare the production trends of the top producers on a single chart.
Also included in this chart is the raw production data of the world’s top silver miners. And it is important to note that these 12 countries are responsible for the lion’s share of mined supply, their combined total accounting for 90% (21.4k mt). Interestingly #12 Canada produces nearly twice as much as the next closest country. In fact, only 5 countries outside the top dozen actually produce greater than 100 mt of silver annually.
Starting at the top, you’ll notice that silver mine production is dominated by three countries. And Mexico, China, and Peru have long been the three-headed monster of the silver market. Back when silver’s bull began in 2001 these three countries were the leaders, accounting for about one-third of the global mined supply. And as a result of strong growth from each over the last decade, they remain the leaders while accounting for now nearly half of the mined supply.
Mexico comfortably sits atop the silver-mining world. This country is host to massive silver belts, including the illustrious Sierra Madre belt that flanks the Sierra Madre Occidental mountain range. Silver has long been one of Mexico’s major exports, dating as far back as the 16th century when the Spanish colonials shipped it back to their homeland via large galleons.
It is believed that about one-third of all silver mined in the history of the world has come from Mexico. But even with such rich history, this country’s silver mineralization is nowhere near depleted. The miners continue to make big discoveries. And these discoveries have great economics as seen by 50%+ production growth over the last decade.
Mexico’s prominence is also apparent in its continued attractiveness to the juniors. In my latest round of research focused on junior silver explorers, I found Mexico to be the top destination for these companies. With Mexico’s plush geology and friendly mining laws, about half of all silver juniors own a project in Mexico.
In the #2 spot we find China. And per the USGS’s latest update to 2011’s numbers that increased Chinese production and lowered Peruvian production, it turns out that 2012 was China’s second year in a row as runner up to Mexico. This is quite notable, as China had never before cracked the top two. With Mexico and Peru holding the top-two spots from 1999 to 2010, this is certainly a big shuffle at the top. China is no longer the third wheel!
China’s journey to #2 is the result of massive production growth, mainly via byproduct production from primary base-metals mines. Over the last 11 years its silver production has doubled, with the addition of 1.9k mt (61m ounces) to its annual output. By volume this growth is unmatched by any other country. And China’s silver production is expected to continue to rise, eventually giving Mexico a run for its money.
Rounding out the big three is Peru, where most of its silver is found high in the Andes Mountains. And Peru is certainly no slouch considering it had a recent stint as the world’s #1 silver producer, edging out Mexico from 2002 to 2009. Silver has long been engrained in Peru’s culture. In fact, the ancient Incans were so enthralled by this soft-white metal that they referred to it as the “tears of the moon”.
Peru’s production is up 34% since 2001. And though its output has trended down a bit over the last few years, the mining companies have had great success renewing their reserves and making new discoveries. With the world’s largest reserve base (120k mt), by far, Peru is highly likely to revisit its 2009 all-time production high in the near future.
Next up is Australia. And as you can see by its production trend, this country has been quite consistent over the last decade or so. Interestingly over half of Australia’s output comes from a single mine. And this massive Cannington mine owned by BHP Billiton ranks as the largest silver and lead mine in the world.
Russia has been one of the top performers by percentage growth over the course of silver’s bull. And considering this country’s huge geographical and geological potential, it sure ought to be among the top producers. Attributing to Russia’s nearly 300% bump in production is the restart of the massive Dukat mine and an increase in byproduct output from its large gold mines.
The South American country of Bolivia has grown to become a silver powerhouse over the last decade or so. And this is actually quite surprising considering its geopolitical issues over this same span. Large operations like Sumitomo’s San Cristobal mine and Coeur d’Alene’s San Bartolome mine successfully navigated their ways around Bolivia’s challenges to account for a big chunk of this country’s 200%+ growth since 2001.
Poland is another country where the bulk of its silver comes to market as a byproduct of primary base-metals mines. And nearly the entirety of its output comes from three massive copper mines that are owned by KGHM Polska. Poland’s flat production from an isolated source is a sign of consistency, yet also a clear display of fruitless exploration and/or new development.
Chile’s silver output has also been fairly consistent over the years, with much of its 16% decline coming just last year. A big chunk of Chile’s silver is a byproduct of its large copper and gold mines, however there are a handful of primary silver mines that do make material contributions.
Chile has struggled a bit with water, energy, and labor challenges, but these are typical Latin American growing pains that will work themselves out. Looking forward Chile will see a big boost in production in the near future once Barrick Gold finally gets its massive Pascua-Lama gold/silver mine online.
In the #9 spot is the United States. And as you see by its downward trend, the US has experienced quite a fall from silver prominence. Since 2001 US silver output is down an appalling 40%. And if you go back to its peak levels in the 1990s, things are even worse with a decline of well over 50%.
Provocatively prior to the turn of the 21st century silver’s big three were Mexico, Peru, and the US. China was not in the picture yet. In fact, as recently as 1997 the US was the world’s #2 silver producer, responsible for nearly 14% of the global mined supply that year.
It really is amazing that one of the world’s top silver producers could tumble in such epic fashion during one of the most powerful bull markets this metal has ever seen. Factoring into this decline is large-mine depletion, pinched economics for harder-to-access ore, regulatory burdens, and a lack of new discovery.
Though the US has several historic primary silver districts (the most prolific being in Idaho, Montana, and Colorado), they were the first to shut down during the bear-market years of the 1980s and 1990s. And as a result, the majority of the US’s silver these days is a byproduct of copper and gold mining. Making matters worse, the US’s production of both of these metals is also way down in recent years.
In stark contrast from the US, Argentina has seen incredible production growth over the last decade or so. Amazingly in 1998 it ranked as the world’s 27th largest silver producer, with output of only 36 mt. It really has come out of nowhere to join the world’s elite.
Argentina has actually long been known to host robust mineralized systems. Unfortunately as a result of antiquated mining laws it took awhile for the miners to realize the resources held within these systems. Thankfully Argentina’s decades-long lag behind its Latin American cohorts finally started to burn away following some big reforms in the 1990s. And when the miners finally got on the ground they found a wide range of mineral deposits, including several large ones that were primary silver.
Interestingly primary silver deposits are quite rare since this mineral is usually subservient to higher concentrations of accompanying base metals and/or gold. Less than a third of global mined silver actually comes from primary silver mines! Argentina is a geological exception though, with well over half its output coming from primary silver mines owned by such companies as Silver Standard, Pan American, and Hochschild.
Moving to Kazakhstan we see a material decline in production over the course of silver’s bull. Like Poland, the vast majority of Kazakhstan’s silver output comes from byproduct base-metals production from a single large company (Kazakymys). This massive country has great silver potential, but lacks attractiveness due to its precarious political environment.
Rounding out the top 12 is Canada. And like the US, Canada’s silver story tells of a fall from greatness. Mining historians will recall the great Cobalt Silver Rush early in the 20th century that made Canada a global silver powerhouse. And even as recently as 2002, the Great White North still held its head high as the world’s #5 silver producer.
Unfortunately many of the same things that plagued the US also hit Canada hard. And with primary silver mines now all but extinct (the exception being the recently revived Keno Hill camp) coupled with declines in byproduct output, Canada has seen a staggering 60% plunge in silver production.
Overall silver’s global mining trends are quite revealing in the grand scheme of this metal’s structural fundamentals. There have been some great growth stories, and some pretty alarming declines. And as investors the information we get by drilling down into country-level dynamics can certainly assist in our trading decisions.
Since geographical logistics don’t matter much when it comes to investing in the physical metal, the trading I’m referring to involves the mining stocks. And believe me, mining companies are very sensitive to where in the world they seek to explore/develop/produce their silver.
One major takeaway we can gather from this information is that total output and/or growth rates don’t necessarily translate to opportunity for the miners. Some of these countries are host to geopolitical situations that all but block foreign investment. And some are producing silver solely as a byproduct, ultimately lacking geologically favorable primary silver deposits. These situations are not conducive to mining companies looking to directly leverage silver.
Another takeaway is that Latin America is definitely a silver hot spot these days. Some of the best growth trends are coming from this part of the world. This observation is further supported by the fact that in 2012 half the production from the top dozen came from Latin American countries. Back in 2001 they were only responsible for 43%.
One other observation I can add is somewhat counterintuitive to what the trends are showing. But per my recent research looking at the universe of silver juniors, I found there to be a lot of exploration activity in the countries that are the two biggest losers over the course of this bull. Nearly a third of all juniors have a project in the US, with nearly a third also having a project in Canada.
While the silver-mining industry in these upper North American countries is struggling, they both have a distinct advantage when it comes to exploration. The miners know where the silver is. The US and Canada both hold historic silver-mining districts that were shut down due to economics. These districts have plenty of resources remaining. And with higher prices and better technology, the juniors are finding great success in their exploration endeavors. I suspect we’ll see a US and Canada silver revival in the coming years that will finally turn around their decade-long downward trends.
At Zeal we love poring over data like this to give us better insights into a given sector. And we implement it into our exhaustive research that turns out high-probability-for-success stocks to trade in our newsletters. In our last two research reports profiling these stocks, our focus was on silver. And even amidst this downtrodden mining-stock environment, several silver stocks that we recommended in our newsletters are sporting excellent unrealized gains.
If you’d like the detailed fundamental profiles of our favorite silver stocks at your fingertips, buy your reports today! And if you crave a unique and exciting market tilt, something you won’t find with the mainstream herd, consider a subscription to our weekly and/or monthly newsletters. Investors all over the world have enjoyed our acclaimed contrarian market analysis and trade recommendations for over a decade! Get your subscription today!
The bottom line is global silver mine production is on the rise. And it is certainly interesting to see where in the world the silver is coming from. Just this week the USGS released its 2012 country-level production estimates, and these latest numbers tack onto some fascinating trends over the course of silver’s bull.
We are seeing a big shuffle at the top with China making a move. And the Latin American countries are continuing to show their force, now collectively responsible for over half of the world’s mined silver production. Drilling down on these country-level dynamics really helps us to better understand a big component of silver’s structural fundamentals. And with this knowledge we are better equipped to invest in this growing sector.
Scott Wright
February 1, 2013
So how can you profit from this information? We publish an acclaimed monthly newsletter, Zeal Intelligence, that details exactly what we are doing in terms of actual stock and options trading based on all the lessons we have learned in our market research as well as provides in-depth market analysis and commentary. Please consider joining us each month at … www.zealllc.com/subscribe.htm
Thoughts, comments, or flames? Fire away at scottq@zealllc.com . Depending on the volume of feedback I may not have time to respond personally, but I will read all messages. Thanks!
Copyright 2000 – 2013 Zeal Research (www.ZealLLC.com)
NBF：“黃金產量懸崖”或將於2017年到來
全球黃金產量在近幾年內達到了記錄最高水平，但是來自銀行金融公司（National Bank Financial）的分析師表示，投資者不應該習慣於黃金的高產量。
據Financial Post引述NBF的三位分析師Steve Parsons, Paolo Lostritto和Shane Nagle認為，2017年前後將出現“黃金產量懸崖”現象，屆時全球主要的黃金礦商都可能經歷產量大幅下降，這也能夠創造一些投資機會。
這三位分析師還認為，“黃金產量懸崖”背後的原因很簡單：
新發現的大規模黃金儲備資源太少了，不足以維持現有的生產率。許多礦商都開始推遲或取消開採項目，因為成本壓力較大等因素，“產量懸崖”正在逼近。
三位分析師表示：
“我們認為，受限制的黃金產量已經開始對一些金礦公司的股價造成了衝擊，並不是因為市場很好地理解了問題的關鍵，而是因為投資者單純地對一些副作用做出了反應，這些副作用包括資本支出的壓力、項目延期或取消、利潤降低等等。”
在目前的環境下，三位分析師預計，併購還將持續成為未來黃金產業的主題。過去10年內，許多併購交易都包含規模大但品質級別較低的黃金資源儲藏。然而，太多這樣的交易最後卻成了買方的災難，因為成本上漲，減記和CEO下台的事件時有發生。預計未來的黃金產業併購項目將包含哪些資本密度較低的項目。這些項目的後勤情況較好，回報率較高。
據Financial Post引述NBF的三位分析師Steve Parsons, Paolo Lostritto和Shane Nagle認為，2017年前後將出現“黃金產量懸崖”現象，屆時全球主要的黃金礦商都可能經歷產量大幅下降，這也能夠創造一些投資機會。
這三位分析師還認為，“黃金產量懸崖”背後的原因很簡單：
新發現的大規模黃金儲備資源太少了，不足以維持現有的生產率。許多礦商都開始推遲或取消開採項目，因為成本壓力較大等因素，“產量懸崖”正在逼近。
三位分析師表示：
“我們認為，受限制的黃金產量已經開始對一些金礦公司的股價造成了衝擊，並不是因為市場很好地理解了問題的關鍵，而是因為投資者單純地對一些副作用做出了反應，這些副作用包括資本支出的壓力、項目延期或取消、利潤降低等等。”
在目前的環境下，三位分析師預計，併購還將持續成為未來黃金產業的主題。過去10年內，許多併購交易都包含規模大但品質級別較低的黃金資源儲藏。然而，太多這樣的交易最後卻成了買方的災難，因為成本上漲，減記和CEO下台的事件時有發生。預計未來的黃金產業併購項目將包含哪些資本密度較低的項目。這些項目的後勤情況較好，回報率較高。
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