Summary
- China's central bank is buying huge quantities of gold.
- China wants the yuan to become a reserve currency, but does not want a "strong yuan".
- China wants the leverage to control all currency values, which requires control of the gold market.
On April 20, 2015, Bloomberg Intelligence estimated that The People's Bank of China tripled its holdings of gold bullion, since April 2009, to 3,510 metric tons. That means, more or less, the Chinese government has purchased virtually all of its domestic gold production over the last 6 years. The estimate is based on trade data, domestic output and the figures published by the China Gold Association. That means that the Chinese government is the second largest gold-holder in the world, outmatched only by the USA, which claims an alleged hoard of 8,133.5 tons of the yellow metal.
Bloomberg speculates that China is buying gold because it intends to bolster the acceptability of the Chinese yuan in international commerce. The line of thinking is that large gold holdings make currencies more credible candidates for reserve currency status. Yet, a gold-backed currency is not likely to impress the staunchly anti-gold IMF, or increase the likelihood that the Chinese yuan will be added to SDR. Just the opposite.
The IMF was founded by western nations, and the nation with the largest number of voting shares is the United States. For historical reasons, most Western nations, and particularly the USA, continue to be anti-gold. During the 1920s, America gave lip-service to being on a so-called "gold standard". However, in common with most western nations, it printed far more paper money than the gold reserves could back up.
When a recession hit in 1929, national gold reserves could not cope with the increased demand for redemption. By 1933, most western nations ended up defaulting on their gold redemption obligation to individual holders of their currencies. As part of a post-default anti-gold campaign, gold ownership in the USA became illegal from 1933 to 1974. Individuals continued to be subject to criminal sanctions until America defaulted on its inter-governmental gold debts. Post-default relief from pressure on US gold reserves caused American gold trading to become legal again.
This long history of currency and gold standard mismanagement caused the insertion of article 4, Section 2b of the IMF's Articles of Agreement. It specifically prohibits member states from fixing currencies against gold. As a result, with hopes of stabilizing its emerging market currency, instead of fixing the yuan against gold, starting with the Asian Financial Crisis of 1998-1999, China fixed against the US dollar. In July 2005, the "fix" was changed to a managed float. The renminbi strengthened by 21% between 2005 to 2008. In August 2008, the policy changed back again. China 're-pegged' until June 2010 when pressure from the USA caused them to drop the peg again. For more on China's exchange rate policy, see this.
China's fix and/or managed "float" both insure a weak yuan. This causes Chinese goods to be cheaper than similar goods sold by western counterparts. That is a huge competitive advantage. It supports employment and, therefore, political stability. Simply put, so long as the vast majority of Chinese workers are gainfully employed, they are less likely to revolt. The chance that China will suddenly give up a decades-long cheap currency policy, and destroy that stability, is nearly zero. China's leadership is not buying gold to go on the gold standard. It simply wants the power to set reserves and, therefore, currency values, particularly the yuan vs. US dollar ratio.
A recently declassified transcript of a recorded conversation between former US Secretary of State, Henry Kissinger and his Undersecretary for Economic Affairs, Thomas O. Enders, helps in gaining a better understanding of this issue. It reads, in pertinent part, as follows:
Mr. Enders: It's against our interest to have gold in the system because for it to remain there it would result in it being evaluated periodically. Although we have still some substantial gold holdings - about $11 billion - a larger part of the official gold in the world is concentrated in Western Europe. This gives them the dominant position in world reserves and the dominant means of creating reserves. We've been trying to get away from that into a system in which we can control ...In other words, whoever controls the price of gold against their own currency controls the price of gold against any other currency that gold is denominated in. When China increases the number of yuan it takes to purchase one ounce of gold, the dollar will respond by rising in value, even though China will not be pegging its yuan directly against the dollar. The dollar's rise could only be capped by a concerted effort by the USA.
Secretary Kissinger: But that's a balance-of-payments problem.
Mr. Enders: Yes, but it's a question of who has the most leverage internationally. If they have the reserve-creating instrument, by having the largest amount of gold and the ability to change its price periodically, they have a position relative to ours of considerable power. For a long time we had a position relative to theirs of considerable power because we could change gold almost at will. This is no longer possible - no longer acceptable. Therefore, we have gone to Special Drawing Rights, which is also equitable and could take account of some of the less-developed-country interests and which spreads the power away from Europe. And it's more rational in ...
Secretary Kissinger: "More rational" being defined as being more in our interests or what?
Control over the worldwide currency markets is why China wants to control the gold market. It is already taking affirmative steps to establish that control, and that is what is behind the announcement that the Shanghai Gold Exchange will establish a yuan-based gold fix before the end of 2015. The chairman of the SGE, Xu Luode, has been not been shy about it. He has very openly stated that China intends to control the gold market. He stated:
The international board will form a yuan-denominated gold price index system named "Shanghai Gold". Shanghai Gold will change the current gold market "consumption in the East priced in the West" situation. When China will have a right to speak in the international gold market, pricing will get revealed.The yuan-based gold price, in other words, will be set at the SGE, which is nothing more than a clearing house similar to exchanges in the West, in that it is sponsored by banks. The difference is that the Shanghai Gold Exchange is sponsored by Chinese banks with direct government support. Even in the $5 trillion + London currency and gold markets, which are supposedly the most transparent in the world, a few large banks managed to manipulate and control the price of both gold and paper currencies. These banks are even now paying multi-billion dollar fines to various regulators, in an attempt to avoid prosecution.
In contrast to the predominantly private London banking structure, the largest most important banks in China are key tools of central planning and largely state-owned. Yet, under the guise of a "free market", the Chinese government will set the price of gold. The "market", indirectly controlled by China through its state-owned banks, is a convenient mirage. China's leaders will be able to unilaterally increase or decrease the yuan based gold price. The exchange rate, therefore, between the yuan and US dollar must automatically change too, because both currencies denominated against gold.
If China increases the number of yuan required to buy a troy ounce of gold, for example, the USA must allow the dollar gold price to rise with it. If not, the yuan will fall against the dollar. In other words, China will determine the value of the US dollar on world markets, not the USA. That shifts the power and leverage away from Washington DC and toward Beijing, and will have a dramatic effect on the financial strength of the US government.
Signeurage is the revenue arising out of creating money. This is because it costs nearly nothing to print paper money, and even less to "print" its electronic version. Yet, this money can be used to buy real things, like oil, houses, cars, plant and equipment. As the printer of the world's reserve paper currency, the USA receives a huge signeurage payment every year. The dollars are printed, used to pay for stuff purchased from foreign lands, and then stored overseas in various places, including central bank vaults, and the mattresses of Russian babushkas.
Every nation and person buying dollars and/or dollar denominated bonds gets to pay, in part, for America's social programs, newest aircraft carriers, stealth fighter jets, drones etc.. Worldwide financial instability since 2008 resulted in the absorption of about $3 trillion dollars newly printed by the Federal Reserve, for one example. The US government has had the benefit of the equivalent of hundreds of billion dollars every year. It will be hard, maybe impossible, to replace that income.
The ancient Chinese strategist, Sun Tsu, is clearly the inspiration for China's massive gold accumulation. If you read his famous book, The Art of War, you may note that he recommended destroying enemies by attacking their economic base, rather than by mounting overt physical attacks. That is exactly what China is doing to the USA. America's policy-makers have stumbled into China's trap.
Once China has enough gold, it will bid up the yuan-denominated price into the stratosphere. Once it does that, there are only three choices. First, maintain credibility and the reserve currency status by refusing to change the price of US dollar denominated gold. If it does that, domestic industries will be crippled by Chinese competition, because the yuan will become very cheap in relation to the dollar. Second, allow the dollar denominated price of gold to skyrocket in synch with the yuan denominated price. That will end the US dollar's reserve currency status. Third, kow-tow to Beijing, seeking a seal of approval from China for any serious financial maneuvers.
None of America's choices are good ones. At this point, no matter what the USA does, China wins. Making things worse is the fact that it will be nearly impossible to prove China is a "currency manipulator" based on the IMF rules. China will simply point to the SGE, explain how the price is set by supply and demand, and win any arbitration brought against it.
It is impossible to know the exact date China will launch its final effort to strip America of its power and authority in the world. But, the current massive gold buying is clearly the main step necessary to do so. China is determined to take power, revenues and international leverage away from the USA. Meanwhile, hapless US policy makers appear to be blissfully unaware of what the Chinese are planning.
http://seekingalpha.com
中國大量買入全球黃金的背後，真正原因是什麼?
過去六年以來，中國已經進口了數千噸黃金，並且購買了自己國內的全部產量。據庫斯·詹森（Koos Jansen）稱，中國黃金協會（CGA）發布的《中國黃金年鑑》列出2013年中國黃金淨進口量為1,524噸，此外還有428噸國內產量，總計 1,952噸。 2014年，中國至少進口了1,250噸黃金，國內開采了452噸黃金，總計1,702噸。僅在2015年頭兩個月，中國的黃金進口總量就已達到410多 噸，與2014年需求相比有大幅增長。
2015年4月20日，彭博情報（Bloomberg Intelligence）估計，自從2009年4月以來，中國央行持有的實物黃金已經增加了兩倍，達到3,510噸。這多少意味著，過去六年以來，中國 政府差不多購買了自己國內全部的黃金產量。這個估計是基於貿易數據、國內產量以及中國黃金協會公佈的統計數字。這意味著中國政府是世界上僅次於美國的第二 大黃金持有國，美國據稱持有8,133.5噸黃金。
彭博推測，中國正在買入黃金，因為它想要增強人民幣在國際貿易中的可接受 度。其思路是，持有大量黃金會讓本幣更有望獲得儲備貨幣地位。然而，由黃金支持的貨幣不太可能會打動堅決反對黃金的國際貨幣基金組織（IMF），也不太可 能會增加人民幣將會被納入特別提款權的可能性。恰恰相反。
國際貨幣基金組織是由西方國家建立的，擁有最多投票權的國家是美國。 由於歷史原因，大多數西方國家，尤其是美國，繼續反對黃金。在二十世紀二十年代，美國空口答應奉行一種所謂的“金本位制”。然而，和大多數西方國家一樣， 美國印發的紙幣遠超出自身黃金儲備可以支持的數額。
當1929年經濟衰退來襲時，美國的黃金儲備無法應付上升的贖回需求。到 1933年，大多數西方國家最終未履行他們向本幣持有者兌付黃金的義務。作為違約後一波反對黃金運動的一部分，從1933年到1974年擁有黃金在美國成 為非法行為。個人繼續受制於刑事制裁，直到美國在其政府間黃金債務上發生違約為止。違約後美國黃金儲備的壓力得以緩解，從而促使美國黃金交易再次合法。
貨 幣和金本位制管理不善的長期歷史促使《國際貨幣基金組織協定》添加了第四條第二款b——明確禁止成員國將貨幣與黃金掛鉤。因此，由於希望穩定其新興市場貨 幣，從1998年-1999年亞洲金融危機開始，中國不是將人民幣與黃金掛鉤，而是將人民幣與美元掛鉤。 2005年7月，“與美元掛鉤”改為一種有管理的浮動匯率制度。 2005年至2008年期間，人民幣升值了21%。 2008年8月，政策再次改了回去。中國人民幣再度與美元掛鉤，直到2010年6月，來自美國的壓力促使中國再次放棄讓人民幣與美元掛鉤的匯率制度。
中 國的與美元掛鉤的匯率制度和/或有管理的浮動匯率制度都是確保人民幣疲軟。這導致中國的商品要比西方同行銷售的同類商品便宜。這是一個巨大的競爭優勢。它 支持就業以及由此而帶來的政治穩定。簡單地說，只要中國絕大多數勞動者有酬就業，社會不太可能發生動盪。中國突然放棄幾十年之久的廉價貨幣政策並且破壞這 種穩定的可能性幾乎為零。中國領導層正在購買黃金，不是為了走向金本位制。它只是想要設定儲備價值以及貨幣幣值（尤其是人民幣兌美元匯率）的權力。
最近解密的前美國國務卿亨利·基辛格（Henry Kissinger）與其負責經濟事務的副國務卿托馬斯·恩德斯（Thomas O. Enders）的一段談話記錄文稿有助於更好地理解這個問題。
其有關部分的內容如下：
恩德斯：把黃金納入貨幣體制的做法有違我們的利益，因為讓黃金留在貨幣體制中會導致黃金被定期估價。雖然我們還持有大量黃金——價值大約110億美元，但 世界上由官方持有的黃金更大一部分集中在西歐國家手中。這使得他們在世界外匯儲備中佔據主導地位，擁有建立儲備的主導工具。我們一直試圖擺脫這種情況，轉 向一種我們可以控制的貨幣體系……
國務卿基辛格：但這是一個國際收支平衡問題。
恩德斯：是的，但這是一個誰在國際上擁有最大影響力的問題。如果他們持有最多的黃金並且擁有定期更改黃金價格的能力，由此而擁有創造儲備的工具，那麼他們 與我們相比擁有相當大的影響力。以前有很長一段時間我們與他們相比擁有相當大的影響力，因為我們差不多可以隨意更改黃金價格。這再也不可能了——再也不可 接受了。因此，我們轉向特別提款權，這也是公平的，而且可以考慮到一些不太發達國家的利益，並且把影響力從歐洲分散給其他國家或地區。而且更加合理……
國務卿基辛格：“更加合理”被定義為更有利於我們的利益還是其他什麼？
換句話說，誰控制了相對於自身本幣的黃金價格，誰就控制了相對於其他任何貨幣（對黃金計價的貨幣）的黃金價格。如果中國增加了購買一盎司黃金所需要的人民幣的數量，那麼美元將會相應升值，即使中國不會將其人民幣與美元直接掛鉤。美元的升值只能由美國商定的措施加以限制。
控 制全球貨幣市場就是中國想要控制黃金市場的原因。為了建立這種控制權，中國已經採取積極措施，這就是中國宣佈在2015年底之前上海黃金交易所將設立一個 人民幣黃金定盤價機制背後的動機所在。上海黃金交易所理事長許羅德一直毫不怯於談論此事。他非常公開地表示，中國想要控制黃金市場。
他指出：
上海黃金交易所國際板將建立一個名為“上海金”的以人民幣計價的黃金價格指數體系。上海金將改變目前黃金市場“消費在東方，定價在西方”的狀況。當中國有權在國際黃金市場上發言時，定價將得到顯現。
換 句話說，人民幣黃金定盤價將會在上海黃金交易所設定，這其實是一個類似於西方交易所的結算中心，因為它是由銀行發起的。不同的是，上海黃金交易所是由中國 的銀行發起的，得到政府的直接支持。即使在規模達5萬多億美元的倫敦貨幣與黃金市場（據認為是全球最透明的市場）上，幾家大型銀行也曾經設法操縱並控制黃 金價格和紙幣價格。這些銀行如今在向各個監管機構支付數十億美元罰款，以求免遭起訴。
與主要為私營的倫敦銀行業結構不同，在中 國最大最重要的銀行基本上都是國有銀行，是中央計劃的關鍵工具。然而，假借“自由市場”之名，中國政府會設定黃金價格。中國通過其國有銀行間接控制的這個 “市場”是一個近便的海市蜃樓。中國領導層將能夠根據黃金價格單方面升貶人民幣幣值。因此，人民幣和美元之間的匯率也必定會自動變更，因為這兩種貨幣都是 黃金的計價貨幣。
譬如，如果中國增加購買一盎司黃金所需的人民幣數量，那麼美國必須允許以美元計價的黃金價格隨之上漲。若非如 此，那麼人民幣兌美元匯率將會貶值。換句話說，決定全球市場上美元幣值的將會是中國，而不是美國。這使得權力和影響力從華盛頓特區轉向北京，並且將對美國 政府的財政實力造成巨大的影響。
鑄幣稅（Signeurage）是鑄造貨幣所產生的收入。這是因為印發紙幣幾乎沒有什麼成本， 而“印發”電子貨幣的成本甚至更低。然而，這些錢可以用來購買實際物品，比如石油、房子、汽車、工廠和設備。作為世界儲備貨幣的發行國，美國每年獲得巨額 的鑄幣稅收入。美元印發後，用來支付海外進口產品，然後被存放在海外各個地方，包括央行金庫以及俄羅斯老婆婆的床墊。
購買美元 和/或以美元計價的債券的每個人、每個國家都等於是在某種程度上為美國的社會福利項目、最新的航空母艦、隱形戰鬥機、無人機等買單……舉個例子，自 2008年以來的全球金融動盪促使全球吸收了美聯儲新印發的大約3萬億美元。美國政府每年享有相當於數百億美元的“津貼”。要想代替這部分收入很難，或許 是不可能的。
中國古代戰略家孫子顯然是中國大規模積累黃金的靈感來源。如果你讀過他的名著《孫子兵法》，那麼你可能注意到，他建議通過攻擊敵人的經濟基礎——而不是發起公開的有形攻擊來摧毀敵人。這正是中國對美國採取的策略。美國的決策者已經跌入中國的陷阱。
一 旦中國擁有足夠的黃金之後，中國將會把以人民幣計價的黃金價格抬高至天價。一旦中國這樣做，美國祇有三個選擇。第一，拒絕改變以美元計價的黃金價格，以此 維護信譽和儲備貨幣地位。如果中國這樣做，那麼美國國內產業將會被中國的競爭對手拖垮，因為人民幣兌美元匯率將會非常低廉。第二，允許以美元計價的黃金價 格與以人民幣計價的黃金價格同步暴漲。這會終結美元的儲備貨幣地位。第三，對中國政府唯命是從，在任何重大的財政策略上求得中國的認可。
美國的上述選擇都不好。此時此刻，不管美國如何應對，中國都贏了。讓情況更糟的是，按照國際貨幣基金組織的規則，幾乎無法證明中國是“匯率操縱國”。中國祇會指著上海黃金交易所，解釋以人民幣計價的黃金價格是如何由供求關係決定的，並且在對此提出的任何仲裁中獲勝。
我 們不可能知道中國將在什麼時間推出其剝奪美國在世界上所擁有的影響力和權力的最終舉措。但是，當前大規模購買黃金的行為顯然是中國為實現上述目標所必需採 取的主要措施。中國決心從美國手中奪走權力、收入以及國際影響力。與此同時，倒霉的美國決策者似乎絲毫沒有察覺中國正在計劃做什麼。
