真看不懂
10月12日
明年4-5月之後，我個人觀點歐美蹺蹺板效應將趨於穩定，中日摩擦會繼續升級，美債危機，歐債危機將出現日債危機的配合，東亞局勢的緊張將導致日債被下調評級，日本通貨膨脹風險加劇，日元開啟歷史性的回調。而在此之前，日本金融企業會加大收購中國在香港以及在中國B股市場中的籌碼，已便於在退出的時候獲得足夠的做空工具。那麼短期內中國股市不存在過於看空的基礎。總之，給我們留下的準備時間還有6-9個月。
好了，當我寫下上述判斷的時候，有多少人能理解呢？而今天專家們又開始拿QE3說事兒了，我只能笑笑。算了，專家們還會以港府當年擊敗索羅斯來說事兒，呵呵，我還是只能笑笑，童鞋們啊，時過境遷了，你以為索羅斯們還會那麼傻嗎？
不說了，此篇博文寫的很長，最後竟然沒了，看來是天意。有問題的，在回復中互動。
2012年10月26日星期五
金價現利淡交叉訊號
黃美斯
自 9月以來，金價持續上揚，雖然踏入10月初仍保持升勢，但動力逐漸變弱，於10月5日高見1795.69美元，挑戰1800美元關口失敗；金價亦就此展開 調整近兩周。此輪金價上漲幅度約為200美元，較為可觀，故短線可能仍會有技術調整壓力；不過，由於目前尚無因素促使金價大幅回落，故可考慮待金價回調 時，逢低建立好倉。
自 9月以來，金價持續上揚，雖然踏入10月初仍保持升勢，但動力逐漸變弱，於10月5日高見1795.69美元，挑戰1800美元關口失敗；金價亦就此展開 調整近兩周。此輪金價上漲幅度約為200美元，較為可觀，故短線可能仍會有技術調整壓力；不過，由於目前尚無因素促使金價大幅回落，故可考慮待金價回調 時，逢低建立好倉。
由
於過去兩周金價仍持續受壓於9天平均線下方，當前將留意金價可否進一步回穩於9天平均線1740水平上方。然而，RSI及隨機指數仍見延展向下，有機會續
呈下試整固。另外，9天平均線已明確跌破25天平均線，形成利淡交叉，倘若金價再下試低位，則更明確金價開展弱勢。金價目前正探試50天平均線1723水
平。
若
金價可回返9天平均線1749美元之上，則見喘穩的傾向，較大阻力預估在1752及1766水平。另一方面，當前下試支持預料可看1700及1695水
平。倘若以自8月15日1589.70至10月5日高位1795.69美元的累計升幅計算，50%及61.8%的調整水平可至1693及1669美元。
倫
敦白銀方面，在日線圖仍然處於下行趨勢，9天平均線已明確跌破25天線，呈現中線利淡交叉訊號。原先在32至32.50區域為關鍵支撐，目前似乎已明顯失
陷，預料調整走勢亦隨之加劇，將衍生較急劇的下滑；以黃金比率計算，50%調整水平為31.42美元，擴展回調幅度至61.8%則為30.50水平，關鍵
支持預計在30美元關口。另一方面，較近阻力預計在32.45及33.50水平，進一步阻力為34.10水平。
Chinese Mint Increases Silver Panda Production An Astonishing 1233%!!
就算有800百鑄量的 2012年熊貓銀幣,在國外幣商訂貨亦不容易,
In less than two years, the Chinese Mint has increased the production of its 1 oz Chinese Silver Panda 1233%, from 600,000 per year to 8 million in 2012.
Even though this is certainly a massive increase in just two short years…. this may only be the beginning of something really big that is being planned by the Chinese Mint.
According to Louis Golino’s article “China Strives to Make Silver Pandas as Popular as American Silver Eagles“, we have just begun to see just how many Silver Pandas the Chinese plan on minting.
If we take a look at the chart below, we can see that the Chinese Silver Panda production figures have increased substantially since 2010:
According to Jim Orcholski who runs J & T Coins LLC Blog.com, quoted from the article above:
I had an email exchange with Jim over the past few days and I asked him what he thought might be the 2013 mintage forecast for the Chinese Silver Panda. He stated they he and a few other coin dealers thought it would be at least 10 million.
If the Chinese want to make their Silver Panda as popular as the American Silver Eagle, I would imagine they would want to increase its production to over 40 million eventually… and this may be just for starters.
We must remember the Chinese Population is three times that of the United States. Once silver becomes popular in China, demand for the 1 oz coin could reach an easy 75-100 million in a single year. Of course, I doubt this would occur in the next few years, but I could possibly see these sort of figures within the next 4-5 years.
This chart is part of my upcoming SILVER ARTICLE. It is only one aspect of many showing the HUGE INCREASE of SILVER INVESTMENT DEMAND…. over the past several years, and onwards.
In less than two years, the Chinese Mint has increased the production of its 1 oz Chinese Silver Panda 1233%, from 600,000 per year to 8 million in 2012.
Even though this is certainly a massive increase in just two short years…. this may only be the beginning of something really big that is being planned by the Chinese Mint.
According to Louis Golino’s article “China Strives to Make Silver Pandas as Popular as American Silver Eagles“, we have just begun to see just how many Silver Pandas the Chinese plan on minting.
If we take a look at the chart below, we can see that the Chinese Silver Panda production figures have increased substantially since 2010:
According to Jim Orcholski who runs J & T Coins LLC Blog.com, quoted from the article above:
The main reason the mintage of these coins was increased so much starting last year is that it became legal in 2011 for Chinese citizens to own silver coins. This means that a lot of 2011 and 2012-dated coins remain in China.Jim went on further to say:
Despite the major increase in mintage the coins are not getting any easier to locate in the U.S. Mr. Orcholski said supplies are tight and that he was only able to secure one-third of the quantity he requested. He added that his distributor was unable to say when more coins might be available.———————–
I had an email exchange with Jim over the past few days and I asked him what he thought might be the 2013 mintage forecast for the Chinese Silver Panda. He stated they he and a few other coin dealers thought it would be at least 10 million.
If the Chinese want to make their Silver Panda as popular as the American Silver Eagle, I would imagine they would want to increase its production to over 40 million eventually… and this may be just for starters.
We must remember the Chinese Population is three times that of the United States. Once silver becomes popular in China, demand for the 1 oz coin could reach an easy 75-100 million in a single year. Of course, I doubt this would occur in the next few years, but I could possibly see these sort of figures within the next 4-5 years.
This chart is part of my upcoming SILVER ARTICLE. It is only one aspect of many showing the HUGE INCREASE of SILVER INVESTMENT DEMAND…. over the past several years, and onwards.
日本財政懸崖
2012年10月26日 00:07 文 / 莫西幹
FT：日本財政部將在本週五與全球最大政府債務市場債券交易商召開緊急會議，因為關於日本財政將受到政治僵局衝擊的恐慌日漸增加。
與美國的財政懸崖相呼應——明年一月價值6000億美元的支出削減和加稅措施將自動生效，日本政治正僵持在一份議案上——該議案授權政府借貸必需的38.3萬億日元用於支持今年的財政赤字。
日本反對黨要求現任總理野田佳彥滿足提前舉行大選的要求，作為支持該議案的條件。野田至今仍拒絕為大選設定時間，因為害怕其所屬政黨日本民主黨在大選中落敗，現在民主黨的民意支持率低下。
三菱日聯摩根士丹利首席固定收益研究策略師Jun Inshii表示：“直到現在，我們一直認為政府和反對黨在玩老鷹捉小雞的遊戲，他們都過分樂觀了。然而，我們必須考慮到政治衝突並發生硬著陸的可能性。”
債券市場已經顯示了一些緊張的情緒。雖然中短期債券價格仍然保持穩定，但20年國債與10年國債的收益率利差已經擴大到92個基點，根據BBG的數據，這是1999年7月以來的最高水平。交易員表示，長期債券一般對財政可持續性問題更為敏感。
日本財政部高級官員Ikuko Shirota表示，如果不能在11月底前（從下週一開始的額外議會期）就議案達成一致，可能導致“災難性的後果”。
Shirota表示，計劃中的政府債券拍賣將不得不中止，這是過去幾十年來的第一次，這意味著日本政府——這個世界上負債情況最嚴重的政府，將用光所有的現金。
大部分債券交易商預期執政民主黨將與主要反對黨自民黨和較小的新公明黨達成共識，同時它們表示會與日本財政部共同合作應對最壞的情況。
這些交易商——大部分代表了持有大量日本國債的國內銀行，警告說，日本需要依賴日本國債市場平滑運行，保證債券收益率不會上漲到危險的區間——這樣可能引起市場對日本財政可持續性的懷疑。
每年都需要在財政赤字融資問題上討價還價，每年都必須通過，最近幾年這已經變成日本政治習以為常的事情。日本的債券融資收入一直高於稅收收入。今年，這個政治角力持續的時間更長了，因為關乎政府和反對黨更為深層的利益。
早在8月初，在反對黨同意支持野田主導的加倍日本銷售稅議案之後，野田已經表示他將很快舉行大選。
巴克萊銀行東京首席利率策略師Chotaro Morita表示：“日本政局的發展正在變成市場的真正恐慌。”
FT：日本財政部將在本週五與全球最大政府債務市場債券交易商召開緊急會議，因為關於日本財政將受到政治僵局衝擊的恐慌日漸增加。
與美國的財政懸崖相呼應——明年一月價值6000億美元的支出削減和加稅措施將自動生效，日本政治正僵持在一份議案上——該議案授權政府借貸必需的38.3萬億日元用於支持今年的財政赤字。
日本反對黨要求現任總理野田佳彥滿足提前舉行大選的要求，作為支持該議案的條件。野田至今仍拒絕為大選設定時間，因為害怕其所屬政黨日本民主黨在大選中落敗，現在民主黨的民意支持率低下。
三菱日聯摩根士丹利首席固定收益研究策略師Jun Inshii表示：“直到現在，我們一直認為政府和反對黨在玩老鷹捉小雞的遊戲，他們都過分樂觀了。然而，我們必須考慮到政治衝突並發生硬著陸的可能性。”
債券市場已經顯示了一些緊張的情緒。雖然中短期債券價格仍然保持穩定，但20年國債與10年國債的收益率利差已經擴大到92個基點，根據BBG的數據，這是1999年7月以來的最高水平。交易員表示，長期債券一般對財政可持續性問題更為敏感。
日本財政部高級官員Ikuko Shirota表示，如果不能在11月底前（從下週一開始的額外議會期）就議案達成一致，可能導致“災難性的後果”。
Shirota表示，計劃中的政府債券拍賣將不得不中止，這是過去幾十年來的第一次，這意味著日本政府——這個世界上負債情況最嚴重的政府，將用光所有的現金。
大部分債券交易商預期執政民主黨將與主要反對黨自民黨和較小的新公明黨達成共識，同時它們表示會與日本財政部共同合作應對最壞的情況。
這些交易商——大部分代表了持有大量日本國債的國內銀行，警告說，日本需要依賴日本國債市場平滑運行，保證債券收益率不會上漲到危險的區間——這樣可能引起市場對日本財政可持續性的懷疑。
每年都需要在財政赤字融資問題上討價還價，每年都必須通過，最近幾年這已經變成日本政治習以為常的事情。日本的債券融資收入一直高於稅收收入。今年，這個政治角力持續的時間更長了，因為關乎政府和反對黨更為深層的利益。
早在8月初，在反對黨同意支持野田主導的加倍日本銷售稅議案之後，野田已經表示他將很快舉行大選。
巴克萊銀行東京首席利率策略師Chotaro Morita表示：“日本政局的發展正在變成市場的真正恐慌。”
CHINESE & INDIA SILVER DEMAND TO REACH ALMOST 12,000 METRIC TONNES IN 2012
By SRSrocco:
According to this GoldCore article posted on SD this morning, the Chinese silver demand will hit 7,700 metric tonnes in 2012. Last year India’s silver demand was 4,000+ metric tonnes. We can safely assume they should have about the same figure in 2012.
This means Indian and Chinese silver demand alone will account for 50% of global silver mine supply!!!
2012 SILVER DEMAND
CHINESE SILVER = 7,700 mt
INDIA = 4,000+ mt
TOTAL = 12,000 metric tonnes?
12,000 metric tonnes = 386 million oz (more than half of 2011 global silver supply)
This would be nearly 50% of all the silver that was mined in 2011. Of course we do have a good amount of silver coming from recycling… but regardless, this is a significant demand from just two countries.
While it is true that these two countries have the largest population, I believe we have just begun to see how much silver they will be consuming in the future.
According to this GoldCore article posted on SD this morning, the Chinese silver demand will hit 7,700 metric tonnes in 2012. Last year India’s silver demand was 4,000+ metric tonnes. We can safely assume they should have about the same figure in 2012.
This means Indian and Chinese silver demand alone will account for 50% of global silver mine supply!!!
2012 SILVER DEMAND
CHINESE SILVER = 7,700 mt
INDIA = 4,000+ mt
TOTAL = 12,000 metric tonnes?
12,000 metric tonnes = 386 million oz (more than half of 2011 global silver supply)
This would be nearly 50% of all the silver that was mined in 2011. Of course we do have a good amount of silver coming from recycling… but regardless, this is a significant demand from just two countries.
While it is true that these two countries have the largest population, I believe we have just begun to see how much silver they will be consuming in the future.
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