蠔情夜

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Mike Maloney in Horrible Car Crash with Tesla

A Sunday Drive In My Tesla.
This story is written in 4 parts:

Part 1.   The Car Crash

Part 2.  The Economic Crash

Part 3.  The Cars

Part 4.  Freedom and the Pursuit of Excellence

 

Part 1.   The Car Crash

On Sunday evening, August 26^th, I was in one of the most spectacular car accidents I have ever seen. I was driving my Tesla Roadster at 25-30 MPH on a tree-lined canyon road in the Santa Monica Mountains, about to round a slow blind corner.  When suddenly, out from behind the trees came a speeding car skidding out of control.  The corner was posted at 25 MPH…. the oncoming car was traveling at 50 or 60 MPH.  It crossed the centerline of the road fully into my lane and was heading straight at me.  

I veered toward the shoulder of the road and WHAM!  The car hit me head on, pushing my car backwards 20 or 30 feet, and sheering the entire driver’s side of my car clean off.  

The other car, and pieces of my car, continued traveling down the road behind me another 60-80 feet or so.  You can clearly see the other driver’s skid marks running from my lane to the rear of his car.

The whole accident, from when I first heard and saw the oncoming car to the moment of impact, took less than a second.  The moment of impact was the most intense, brutal, and violent experience of my life.  I looked at the smoke coming out of the deflating air bag in front of me, unfastened my seat belt, and stepped out of the car through the area where my drivers side door used to be.  

Later, my passenger said that when he saw the car heading straight for me, he thought I was a dead man. Luckily, the impact was offset enough to one side that the oncoming car was deflected by the carbon fiber body and incredibly strong aluminum frame of my Tesla Roadster.  

If I had been driving a different car, or if the oncoming car had hit me more towards the center of my car, I would not be here typing this article today…  but amazingly, I’m alive. I walked away with just a few scratches, bruises, and an incredibly sore ribcage and neck. 

But the crash that I see coming in the economy will make my little car crash seem insignificant.  

 

Part 2.  The Economic Crash

 

I always say that in every disaster lies an opportunity.  What coming this close to death has done for me is to remind me to enjoy my life.  To always do my best, and enjoy what I’m doing.  

Back in 2002, when I began this journey into economics, when gold was under $400 and silver was under $5, I knew I had an understanding of what was happening in our society.  And I knew I wanted to use that understanding to help others. Seeing the crazy things governments and central banks around the world were doing to their economies, I started sharing what I had learned and encouraging people to do their own research, decide what they should do, and take action. Now that gold is over $1,600 and silver is over $30, I can honestly say that I feel both rewarded and privileged to have played a positive part in helping to protect many, many people from government stupidity.  

But it’s not over yet.  I believe the biggest economic crash in history is still coming at us, and is just around the next bend in the road.  For years I have been getting ready for this economic disaster by investing every spare dollar into gold and silver.  And even though I’m the guy that sees this economic crash ahead as the greatest opportunity in history, and even though my gold and silver makes me feel safer and sleep more soundly, I still worry.

From a monetary historian’s point of view there is no example, in all of history, of the type of monetary malfeasance currently being committed by governments and central banks turning out well.  In fact, it always leads to disaster… and this time they are doing it globally!  

Historically, when a crisis wipes out a society’s middle class, there is very often a great political change in that country, and it is always for the worse. As goes the middle class, so goes the nation.  The middle class is approximately 60%-70% of a nation’s population.  They define a country with their vote and when they are scared, and threatened with the possibility of a life in poverty, they will vote for anybody.  Usually they will vote for a strong, charismatic leader who will play on their fears and promise them a way out of their predicament.   In fact, you can trace the rise of Napoleon, Hitler, and Mao directly to currency crisis and a loss of the middle class.   

Today, worldwide, we have the largest middle class in history.  In the U.S., and in many other countries around the world, the generations born after WWII are spoiled… they have never gone hungry… they have never known real economic strife.  Most of them believe they deserve something just because they are alive.  This creates a dangerous situation.  When you take away a spoiled brat’s toys he throws a tantrum.

For the last 30 years governments and this spoiled middle class have both been rewarded for taking on ever-increasing mountains of debt.  Like rats learning a maze, debt-dependence is a conditioned response, brought on by a series of rewards and punishments.  Artificially low interest rates, which have been lower than the real rate of inflation, have punished savers and rewarded borrowers.  

Today’s unsustainable debt and currency crisis is entirely caused by central banks meddling with the economy.  To understand how central banks artificially goose the economy we need to look at how currency is created.

Whenever a central bank writes a check it creates a type of currency they call “base money” (paper currency).  The reason currency is created every time a central bank writes a check is because the check was drawn on an account that always has a zero balance.  Basically they are committing a fraud and counterfeiting.  These brand new units of currency inflate and dilute the currency supply when they enter circulation causing the purchasing power of that currency to fall.  With each new unit of currency created, each existing unit of currency has less purchasing power.  The symptom of this inflation and dilution of the currency supply is rising prices.

Usually, the reason a central bank writes a check is to artificially stimulate the economy through something called “open market operations.”  The central bank will purchase an asset from the commercial banks (usually government bonds), which causes the bank’s balance sheets to be cash-heavy.  When the banks have too much cash it encourages them to promote more loans by lowering interest rates.

But all bank loans are pyramided on top of base money through something called “fractional reserve lending.”  Reserve ratios vary wildly, but for simplicity I will use a 10% reserve for this example.  Let’s say you are going to buy a house, so you apply for a one million dollar loan.  Under a 10% reserve ratio, the bank is allowed to create $10 of bank credit for every $1 of base money the bank has on hand.  So if the bank has $100,000 on hand it can legally create $1,000,000 and loan it to you.  The bank then credits your checking account with the newly created currency.  The new units of currency created via your $1 million loan also inflate and dilute the currency supply and cause prices to rise. 

It never ceases to amaze me that nobody goes to jail for all this fraud and counterfeiting, but that’s how our monetary system works.  Crazy… isn’t it?

Another way that central banks can influence interest rates is by lowering the interest rate on currency they lend to commercial banks.  In the United States this is called the “Fed funds rate.”

For savers, even though the quantity of currency in their savings accounts may have increased, they have been punished because the purchasing power of the currency has fallen faster than the growth of their accounts.  For borrowers, getting as deep into debt as possible has been rewarded because they can pay off their debts with a cheaper, lower value currency in the future.  

Also, the inflation of the currency supply causes employers to give employees raises to keep up with the cost of living.  So, if your income doubled in the last decade, the monthly payment on your home loan is only half the burden.  This, coupled with lower interest rates year after year has rewarded people for refinancing and extracting equity from their homes.  

Now governments around the world and the middle class are deeper in debt than at any time in history.  It’s like they’re standing in water so deep it’s up to their eyeballs.  They can still tilt their heads back, poke their mouths above the water, and take a breath every once in a while.  But if the water gets any deeper they’ll drown.

Interest rates have been falling since 1980, but that can’t continue forever.  One day soon interest rates, like the water, will rise again.  When they do the spoiled kids are going to be in trouble… it’s all just part of a cycle.

The global economy has been skidding out of control since the crash of 2008 and the emergency maneuvers are not working.  Central banks have been writing checks like crazy.  In the United States the Federal Reserve has tripled base money (that means that they have created two times more base money in the past four years than the previous 200 years.)  First there were the bailouts.  Then there was “QE” (quantitative easing).  Then there was QE2, and now it looks like we’re about to begin QE3.

Excess bank reserves (reserves above the minimum that is required for fractional reserve lending) have gone from about 2 billion to 1.5 trillion (an increase of about 750 times!)  

And the Fed funds rate has been held at near zero for almost 4 years now.

So far none of the emergency maneuvers to avoid the crash ahead have worked.  In fact, they’ve pretty much proven it doesn’t work… so now they’re going to try a whole lot more of it.  I believe what they’ve done is just added to the stored-up economic energy and, just like stepping on the accelerator to beat a red light, the impending crash is going to be a whole lot worse.

The recent crash of my Tesla Roadster and the global economic crash that lies ahead of us have some similarities.  Surviving the impact of a collision is all about the dissipation of energy.  By allowing the body of my Tesla to absorb energy by crumpling and disintegrating it cushions the impact, while the strong and rigid passenger compartment maintained its integrity and allowed nothing to intrude, saving my life.  

The biggest crash the world has ever seen is happening right now.  The financial vehicle I have chosen to carry me safely through it is gold and silver.

 

Part 3.  The Cars

 

Getting back to the Tesla, I wanted to tell you how much I loved that car.  Every time I drove it, I was not only tickled pink, but felt it was a rare privilege to drive such an extraordinary vehicle.  I actually felt it was the best car ever made.  I loved this car so much you could not give me a Ferrari or Lamborghini over my Tesla.  I called it my little electric land rocket.  I used to tell people that when I drove it “it gave me an electron high,” and that “my right foot would get drunk on infinite control of immense power.”  Actually the term “thrust” might be more appropriate.  It pins you back in the seat as it accelerates from 0 – 60 MPH in 3.7 seconds.  

And it’s sophisticated; it accomplishes this mind-boggling acceleration silently, without calling attention to itself or imposing itself on others.  I can zip around the mountain roads where I live all night long without waking anyone up.  The juvenile “hey, look at me” drama and noise required to propel a vehicle using yesterday’s internal combustion technology is gone, replaced by the faint whirring sound that lets you know “this is the future.”

It’s a superior technology.  For instance, the motor has only one moving part and requires no oil.  It also doesn’t require any transmission fluid because it doesn’t have a transmission.  It doesn’t need one because it’s electric.  The motor has maximum torque from zero RPM, and will rev all the way up to 15,000 RPM, propelling the car to 125MPH.  A transmission is basically a Band-Aid that is required to make an inferior technology work.  And there is no reverse “gear.”  When you want to go backwards you simply press a button that reverses the polarity of the motor.  In fact, if it wasn’t electronically limited to 15 MPH, it could do 125 MPH in reverse!!!

It’s been my daily driver for quite a while now, and because its battery is full every morning, with its 240-mile range, I never have to worry about running the batteries down.  Since the accident I have had to drive one of those inferior internal combustion machines again.  I now despise that ancient technology; it has been weighed, it has been measured, and it has been found wanting.  It’s probably been 6-months or more since I have had to stop for gas… What a pain in the butt.  If you add up all the 5 to 10 minute stops at gas stations you have made over your lifetime it measures not in hours or days, but, depending on your age, in weeks or even months!

It’s tiny, tiny, tiny.  Did I mention this car was little?  In traffic I had to look up at drivers of Porches, Corvettes, or the door handle of a mini cooper, or even the lettering of an SUV’s tire.  Its diminutive size and light weight means that it’s agile.  With its agility and acceleration, I feel like everyone else is Wiley Coyote, and I am the Road Runner.

It’s efficient.  In fact, it gets the energy equivalent of 100 miles per gallon.  I drive about 1,000 miles per month, and it uses little more than $30-$40 worth of electricity.  

It’s clean.  It has no exhaust pipe.  When I’m sitting in stop-and-go traffic with the window down, looking at and smelling all the exhaust pipes surrounding me, and realizing my vehicle consumes no energy when it is standing still, I am literally disgusted by all the other vehicles.  And then a pickup truck will pull alongside me with its exhaust pipe at my eye level, blowing its noxious burnt dinosaur fumes directly in my face, and I feel like I’m trapped in an elevator and everyone else farted.

If you are ever offered a chance to ride in a Tesla Roadster, take it.  Afterwards you will know as fact, not conjecture, that 10 years from now 80% of the cars being made will be electric.  You will also know that 10-years from now people will point at this little car and say, “that was the car that changed everything.”  It was the moment in history where electric cars became possible.  It was the first time that the right balance was struck between price, range, and performance.  It was the first electric car the public would buy.  It was only because the Tesla Roadster existed first that Ford, BMW, Honda, Mitsubishi, Nissan, Smart, Renault, Citroën, and Mercedes-Benz are coming out with their own electric cars.  In 10 years people will look back and say, “That was the car that changed the world.”

When you drive a Tesla Roadster you know you are driving the future.  But Tesla stopped producing the Roadster last year, so I guess the future was yesterday. 

However, Tesla just started producing the Model S.  

 

It’s an all-aluminum, 4-door, 5-passenger (or 7 if you order the rear-facing child seats) performance luxury sedan that starts at under $50,000 (after a $7,500 tax rebate).  Depending on the options ordered it has a range of up to 300 miles and can do 0-60 in less than 4.4 seconds.  And to top it off, the EPA says that this big luxury performance sedan gets the energy equivalent of 89 miles per gallon.

The battery pack is approximately 8 feet long, 5 feet wide, and only 4 or 5 inches tall, so it’s the entire floor of the car.  This places about 1,100 pounds of the car’s weight about 6 inches below axle height.  That means that this car should have the lowest center of gravity of any production sedan ever made, so its handling is phenomenal.  The motor is underneath the rear seat, which means the Model S has enormous crumple zones to protect the passenger compartment, so it is probably one of the safest cars in the world.  When you fold the back seat down, the trunk is large enough to throw a mountain bike into and you can still fit five or six bags of groceries in the front trunk (“frunk” in Tesla speak).

  

I believe the Model S is not only the most well engineered car in the world, but has redefined what a car can be.  If you are thinking about buying a new car please, please, please go to a Tesla showroom or their website and take a look.  But if you want one you’d better get in line.  Tesla has pre-sold around 13,000 of them, so if you order now, you’ll probably get yours in about a year.  Luckily, I ordered mine around a year ago and expect to take delivery in a month or two.

 

Part 4.  Freedom and the Pursuit of Excellence

When I would drive my little Tesla Roadster people would stop me and the conversation would go like this.  (I must apologize in advance for the next paragraph, but I feel so strongly about this that it usually all comes out in one breath.)

Hold Physical Gold in a Country like Australia regardless of the economic outcome

Marc Faber : “I would hold physical gold with a country that has a culture with gold such as Australia. In a collapse, the gold price could fall 50 percent, but if everything else falls by 90 percent, then you are relatively well off. So I would hold some physical gold regardless of the economic outcome,” - in CNBC Asia

賺多少錢才算夠？

美國加州州立大學（長堤）商學院教授孫滌為英國《金融時報》中文網撰稿

港人常說“有錢縱然不是萬能，沒錢可是萬萬不能的。”不過，問題不在有和無，而是發生在多與少之間。當人們不得不花時間來賺得自己的口糧、妻子的醫藥、孩子的學費，賺錢屬天經地義；然而過了必要的階段，人們是否還得在市場上沖鋒不止？錢賺到什麼地步才算有止境？

經濟學家斯基德爾斯基合寫的“賺多少才算夠”（How Much is Enough —— Money and the good life），春季出版以來引起了各界的熱烈反響。作者把討論的關鍵壓縮到了，賺錢努力的產出和投入歸根結蒂無非時間這個點上。斯氏對這個任何人都揮之不去的問題的熱忱和興趣，顯然是受了凱恩斯的預測錯誤的觸發。回顧凱恩斯在八十年前發表的一個名篇，他確實載了一個大跟斗。

凱恩斯的《我們後代的經濟前景》（Economic Possibilities for Our Grandchildren），稿成1928年，發表於1930年，那年世界經濟正深陷於大蕭條，而他個人財產也虧損慘重。但是凱恩斯明確告訴人們，不必驚恐更無需絕望。他信心滿滿地預測，一百年後（2030年）英國的人均收入將再要提高四至八倍。事實上到2009年，英國的人均GDP，扣除了通貨膨脹，增加了六倍以上。

凱恩斯更看重的另一個預測，對人類社會發展軌蹟的理解卻錯得離譜。他期許，百年之後英國人的兒孫輩將從物質需求裡解脫出來，不用再為“搵食”終日忙碌不休，“經濟將不再是人類的永恆問題”。面對物質豐裕，兒孫們的經濟機遇要好得多，將更有可能追求各自的興趣愛好，用更多的時間去發展各自的心智和、志趣和才華，“每星期只需工作15小時，3小時一班……”

凱恩斯把人的慾念分成兩類，第一類源於生存的需要；第二類則源於攀比的需要——比他人顯得更優越的戮力追求。第一類慾念滿足後就不再是人們擴大生產的驅動了；而第二類慾念雖說永難滿足，但凱恩斯設想，人們會變得更智慧，第二類慾念的驅使也會趨緩。近百年來社會發展的實際歷程與凱恩斯的預測可說是全然相左。

在英國的經濟增長增加了六倍（東亞和中國則遠遠超過此數）的同時，它的子民每週的工作時間只從當年的48小時降低到了目前的38小時；1983年以來，每年的勞作也只從1700小時略微減少到現在的1640小時。況且英國人（所有發達國家幾乎同樣）對生活的滿意程度也沒有隨之而提高，還維持在1970年代的水平上。

為何如此？作者展開了解析。他們明達地指出，界定“幸福”的歧義很多，而且是主觀多變的感受，因此跨時間和人群的比較很難，且不可靠。尤其是人們的幸福感受，往往是相對其周圍可比的人（近親、近鄰、同事、同學等）的感受而存在的。要問卷調查里所有的人都要比其他可比的人幸福，在邏輯上是不可行的。舉例來說，有些非常實質性的“幸福”提升，比如，近百年來人平均壽命的大幅延長和某種流行病的成功防治，人們一旦習以為常，就不會因此感到幸福增加了​​，特別是看到周圍的人可能活得​​更長、更健康的時候。貨幣收入也類似。不過斯基德爾斯基還是給出了構成了“好的人生”的一些基本要件（basic goods）。這些“幸福的元素”，本身就獨立“自成”目的，而不是達到其他更高的目的的手段或途徑，包括健康、安全、順應個性、友情、尊重、同自然和諧相處、餘暇（leisure） ，等等。


有些“元素”是很具體的，像健康和安全，缺少了的確“萬萬不能”，但更健康更安全難道就更幸福？拿居住面積為例，開放以來，上海市民的人均面積從不到3平米增加到了30平米，上海人的幸福感是否增加了10倍？尤其是當看到鄰居同學超出了40平米而自己的還不到20平米的時候。另一些“元素”則很混沌，像“尊重”，就更難量化了。著名的經濟學家阿瑪蒂亞•森(Amartya Sen)所說的“decency（體面）”,有多少該由自己在市場裡爭取，多少要靠政府來分配？

作者把討論重點放在了時間的分配上，在經濟成長的過程中人們該怎樣來把握，花多少時間在掙錢上，多少時間該歸自己來支配的餘暇。 Leisure 或許有更好的譯法，按斯氏的界定，餘暇有“purposiveness without purpose”（目的就在其自身）的特性，餘暇時間是為了滿足自己內在的愛好，往往是文化、藝術和知性上的高級追求，直接就是目的，而不是先花時間換錢，再用錢來購買這類活動的享受。這個重點是抓對了，賺錢和余暇的確是一對矛盾。說到底，時間是人生最重要的資源（假如不是唯一的話）。老天爺很公平，對每個人都是時間定量供應，只看你怎麼分配。有人會爭辯，有了錢不就可以購買別人的時間，換取他們的服務嗎？譬如，你可以僱人來清掃房間、看護孩子，香港每到週末你看到維多利亞公園洶湧的菲傭潮，或許有道理。但是你能把刷牙、洗澡外包嗎？你對親朋的情感溝通和孩子的教育能讓人代勞？你花錢請人按摩代替不了自己的健身，更不用說，你沒法花錢請人代你來聽戲看書、欣賞音樂、旅行、打高爾夫，你甚至不能僱人來替你打麻將、看電影。沒有餘暇親力親為的話，你的愛好就無從談起，再有錢也不相干。作者於是提出他的詰問，人們不止息地勞作賺錢，始終只在準備享受人生，那麼何時才能真正享受到人生？相信這個難題沒人能夠迴避。

不過，我對作者觀點頗有些質疑，這裡且提三個。

一、市場經濟已成為主流生活方式，個人的選擇恐怕只能以順應市場為主。上文中凱恩斯提到的第二類需求，即市場攀比的需要，已超越生存需要成了人們競爭的主要內容。市場的忽悠教人欲罷不能；

二、即便有點餘閒時間，未必就能夠有享用餘暇的內容。內涵的開發，能真正讓你享受到它的美妙的活動，都相當“奢侈”，學習過程很長，若不費時費心力去執著追求，很難成為你個人的興趣摯愛。所以，一般人也只得靠市場來分工，賺足夠的錢來滿足自己的攀比需要。消費奢侈品，愛馬仕的絲巾、提夫尼的鑽戒、萬寶龍的筆、保時捷的車，還有豪宅…… 從時間耗費的角度，反倒不那麼奢侈；

三、更主要的是，人們到底需要投入多少時間工作才能支持自己的餘暇？當今的世界大多數人還必需胼手胝足，終日為衣食奔忙，發達國家的民眾每年工作1400-1700小時，每周平均34-38小時，也是指他們在工作年齡段的情況。隨著社會和科技的進展，事實上人們在就業前所需要的培訓階段和退休後的壽命年限都大幅度擴張了。二十幾歲以後才開始工作、六十歲退休後能繼續活30年，是很正常的事。 1930年代英國人的平均壽命不到70歲，工作年齡段為50年（15-64），撫養年齡段20年（少齡14年+老齡6年）那時2.5:1的“支持率”，到了今天就變成了1.1:1：工作年齡段減成44年（21-64），撫養年齡段則上升到40年（20+（84-64））。生產力要是沒有任何提高的話，英國人每星期就得工作近90小時以上。


根據美國勞工部的數據，一個美國人一生（15歲以上），是怎樣分配活動時間的。花在攢錢的工作上的時間，平均不到14.86%；看電視節目的時間到有11.46%；花在教育上的時間只有1.94%；最大項的時間開支則是睡眠，則在36%左右；餘暇和運動的時間則佔了11.28%。目前發達國家（整個歐元區、北美、澳新）的一個非常突出的問題，是健保退養的經費嚴重短缺。對策之一，是要推延國民的法定退休年齡（目前在60-66歲的範圍），引起的社會矛盾相當尖銳。

在中國，這樣的隱患也在漸漸凸顯。在“新新人口論”系列裡我曾多次提到，由於出生率劇降、醫保和健康條件的顯著改善使老年人活得更長久，中國正經歷著急速的社會老齡化。目前的城市居民，退休年齡平均在54歲左右，還是沿襲1951年以來男60歲，女50歲（公務員55歲）的退休年齡規定。其間發生的變化卻極大，當時中國人不足46歲的平均壽命，而現在已超過了73歲。所以在中國，推遲規定的退休年齡，恐怕也是遲早的事。（編註：本文僅代表作者觀點）  

Orginial Source 

兩PMI齊低迷人民幣短期貶值預期加重

來源:金融時報 2012年09月06日

    匯豐銀行昨日發布的8月份中國服務業採購經理人指數（PMI）​​為52.0，創一年以來最低。拖累PMI​​創新低的因素是企業新接業務增長乏力，其中新訂單增速亦創下一年新低，需求疲態盡顯。
除了服務業，更體現經濟全局冷暖的製造業PMI表現更加糟糕。日前發布的匯豐8月中國製造業PMI終值降至47.6，為2009年3月以來最低水平；國家統計局官方8月製造業PMI則是自去年11月以來首次跌破枯榮線。
PMI遇冷背後，內需、外需已全線走弱。根據匯豐統計，包括內外部需求的綜合訂單指數已創九個月新低。數據顯示，中國的出口和進口比起第二季度10.5%和6.4%的增長，7月份的增長分別僅為1%和4.7%，其中對歐盟的出口在7月萎縮高達16.2%。同時，今年4月至7月的工業增加值同比增長罕見地低於10%，星展銀行大中華區經濟研究團隊稱，這意味著未來幾個月的出口形勢仍將不樂觀。
出口承壓再次引發對於貨幣貶值的呼聲。興業銀行首席經濟學家魯政委認為，經濟不景氣主要緣於外貿，外貿不景氣除了世界經濟震盪外，更與人民幣實際有效匯率偏高有關。他稱，應採取措施調整人民幣實際有效匯率過高的問題，實現市場化調節，才會對拯救出口“一擊即中”。
雖實際有效匯率仍然偏高，但從人民幣對美元走勢來看，其中間價自年初至今已貶值0.7%，即期市場貶值幅度更是接近1%。大華銀行集團首席經濟師兼投資者關係及研究部主管許洲德分析指出，人民幣對美元微幅貶值是出口及大環境放慢下的合理市場與政策反應。他預計，長期來講人民幣仍處於升值通道，但今年之內不會升值。
對於後期宏觀政策，許洲德認為，拉動投資仍是最易在短期內解決問題的政策工具，但正著力於轉變經濟增長方式的決策層眼下“看重增長的質量而非數據”，因此不會輕易走捷徑。
貨幣方面，M2（廣義貨幣供應量）今年以來已經增長了13.9%，與央行14%的目標接近；7月份新增貸款達到5400億人民幣，星展銀行研究團隊預計這一數據在8月有望達到6000億，使得全年至今的貸款金額達到6萬億人民幣，即新增貸款累積速度有望快於2008、2010和2011年。
由此，星展觀點認為，PMI的走低僅體現了製造業、尤其是貿易方面的疲弱，中國經濟仍存在固定資產投資穩健和貸款增長等正面力量，加之食品價格上漲可能重燃通脹預期，因此，分析師預計，PMI低迷並不會解除政府對房地產市場的嚴格管制，擴張性財政政策將針對製定工業行業實施，而下調利率和存款準備金率仍然是下半年央行口袋裡最可能釋放的政策工具。

What Hedge Funds Are Now Doing In the Gold & Silver Markets

With gold breaking $1,700 and silver nearing the $33 level, today King World News spoke with acclaimed trader Dan Norcini to get his take on where we are in the gold and silver markets after this latest move.  Norcini was quick to lay out the position of the hedge funds in both of these markets as they are seen as a key driver.

“The gold market has a great deal of momentum behind it and the round number of $1,700 is important because those round numbers can sometimes slow an advance in a market like gold. 

We’ll have to wait and see if gold can run right through $1,700 or if it needs to do some work here to get through that area.  If you notice, today gold had cleared $1,700 comfortably, but it has now retreated right back down to that level.

If we look at the silver market, in the past, the commercials had a record 66,000 contract net short position in silver, but currently they are at 47,000 contracts net short, including options.  It is also true that the hedge funds have room to add long positions in the silver market as well. 

But this might shock some people, the swap dealers are still net long the silver market.  The swap dealers have been reducing that long position by selling to the hedge fund buyers.  So there is still the potential for the silver market to continue to experience some significant upside.”

Norcini concluded: “What you can bring away from this, Eric, is that hedge fund money has been largely absent from the gold and silver markets.  So the driver to move these markets higher is coming back in with this hedge fund buying.  There is a very healthy interest now in the hedge fund community to be in both the gold and silver markets, and this has the potential to continue to fuel this rally.

This is one of the reasons why, over the past 30 days, the price dips have been very shallow in both of these markets.  The hedge funds are buying the dips and keeping retracements to a minimum.  As long as they continue to buy the dips, I expect these metals to continue trending higher.”

KWN has just released an incredibly powerful interview with one of the greats.  Dr. Marc Faber discusses everything from gold and silver, to investment allocations, confiscation fears, dangerous trends, protecting oneself, central planners, inflation and much more. The KWN audio with Dr. Marc Faber is available now and you can listen to it by CLICKING HERE.

 Original Source

畢老林:女首富語出驚人鐵礦泡沫看中國

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9月6日，周四。俗語有雲，財長人志，一個人身家愈是豐厚，愈是肥到著唔到襪，腎上腺素攀升速度可能也愈高，自我感覺良好之餘，語出驚人甚至語無倫次，亦見慣不怪。

一地的經濟脈絡以至發展軌跡，從當地財閥錢從何來，不難窺一斑而知全豹。香港富豪榜由地產商或靠起樓賣樓置富者壟斷，「磚頭」格外惹火，其來有自。 

GinaRinehart

40年來四大泡沫
澳 洲首富何方神聖，大家是否又有所聽聞？開古：這位肥到著唔到襪的富商，乃於柏斯市所在的西澳洲(WesternAustralia)建立起鐵礦石王國的女 士萊茵哈特(GinaRinehart)。她非但「斤兩十足」(指體形)，在祖家澳洲富甲一方，放諸四海，以女性而論身家亦首屈一指。澳洲《商業評論周 刊》(BusinessReviewWeekly)今年5月刊發的環球200強富豪榜顯示，萊茵哈特以284.8億美元個人資產淨值，首度壓倒美國零售巨 擘沃爾瑪女繼承人姬絲蒂．沃爾頓(ChristyWalton，資產淨值253億美元)，榮升全球第一富婆。

萊茵哈特近日語出驚人，指 摘憎人富貴者終日只懂吸煙喝酒社交講是非，「建議」他們多花時間努力工作，以拉近貧富差距。此話一出，非但澳洲社會上下震動，連本應事不關己的「末日博 士」麥嘉華亦忍不住插上一嘴。老麥倒非對世界女首富財大氣粗看不過眼(萊茵哈特揚言，澳洲人應以甘於接受每天工資2澳元的非洲人為榜樣，刻苦耐勞；諷刺的 是，其礦業王國為她賺取的財富，每秒幾近600澳元)，「末日博士」大感不妥的是，這位世界第一富婆最近頻頻亮相，言論且日益出位，背後也許有不足為外人 道的原因。麥嘉華雖未直接點破所為何事，但提到過去四十年全球曾出現四個超級資產泡沫，按照時序為上世紀七十年代的黃金、八十年代的日股、九十年代的科網 和......對，正是萊茵哈特的本業鐵礦石。前三個泡沫早就破滅，當中黃金牛市死而複生，日股和科網卻一蹶不振。鐵礦石價格近期大幅調整，惟就此認定泡 沫已穿，言之尚早。然而，值得注意的是，鐵礦石價格於不足十年間暴漲10倍，較黃金、日股和科網任何一個超級泡沫皆有過之而無不及【圖1】。萊茵哈特突然 患上「躁狂症」，敦促澳洲同胞戒煙戒酒戒八卦，胼手胝足捱世界，不排除乃心情隨鐵礦石走勢變得惡劣、說話語無倫次亦顧不得那麼多所致。

鐵礦石急劇轉勢
早 幾年，中國跟澳洲兩大鐵礦石供貨商力拓、必和必拓以至巴西同業淡水河穀議價，對方無不獅子張大口開天殺價，中國鋼鐵業全程捱打任人魚肉，毫無還手之力，鐵 礦石成為不折不扣的賣家市場。那些年，內地鋼鐵廠因原材料價格連年飆升，邊際利潤一再受壓，由始至終束手無策有苦自知。按理說，世界女首富心情愈差，中國 愈有理由從心底里笑出來，因為鐵礦石價格跌個四腳朝天，等於鋼鐵業原材料成本回落，有助改善邊際利潤。可是，內地鋼鐵廠給用來養豬的消息時有所聞，鋼材供 應過剩，從中國鋼鐵生產由去年全年的6.83億噸增至今年以來的7.17億噸可見一斑；2012年三季未完，鋼鐵產量便高於2011年全年水平，在內地經 濟放緩工業生產轉弱的環境中，供求失衡變本加厲勢所難免。然而，內地鋼廠要爭市占率，而大型國企更有保障工人飯碗的政治任務在身，業界既不會因應市場狀況 調節產量，已創出三十三個月新低的鋼材價格看不到止跌跡象，鋼廠邊際利潤不見得可隨著鐵礦石價格回落而受惠。

什麼也關中國事
內地鋼廠把鐵礦石合約付運期押後、現貨買家退縮，炒家眼見勢頭不妙，在倉位部署上作出相應調整，鐵礦石短期需求出現震蕩，結果是過去數月價格一瀉如注【圖2】。

過 去十年，澳洲食正中國渴求資源的大趨勢，想窮都難。該國出口多達25％輸往內地，當中鐵礦石占澳洲對華出口總值高達六成。這股資源熱非但造就萊茵哈特成為 舉世第一富婆，其家鄉西澳洲人口僅相當於全國一成，但在澳洲六個州中經濟增長最快，人均GDP亦冠絕全國。當地一名目不識丁的礦工，年薪動輒10多萬澳 元，為全國人均年收入2倍有餘；澳洲以外的打工仔，書讀得再多也得個「恨」字。

萊茵哈特最近因財產爭議，與四名子女鬧上法庭，其唯一兒 子跟兩位姊妹站在同一陣線，力圖把母親從家族信托基金托管人的位置趕下來；年紀最幼的妹妹則站在母親一邊，力阻案情曝光。萊茵哈特兒子漢考克公開透露，他 已獲一位神秘中國富豪拔刀相助，全力支持他跟母親爭奪家族財產。

萊茵哈特母子因財失義，世界女首富家變也關中國人事。內地經濟勢頭日益不妙，鐵礦石「爆煲」若獲確認，不知多少人會打回原形？ 

習廣思:買債買金不買股

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歐 央行最終宣布「無限量」買債，細節與市場傳聞相差無幾，央行將會集中購買一至三年短債，無限量購買，全部沖銷。要啟動買債計劃，現時要等西班牙、意大利正 式提出請求，卻其實，歐央行行長德拉吉未有講明買債條件呢。買債計劃推出後，歐洲救市藍圖補上一塊，短期有穩定作用，但也只能是短期作用。另一方面，西班 牙四面楚歌，10月將有275億歐羅國債到期，求救是這個月內之事。

本港樓市升溫未止，政府的地產政策雷聲大雨點小，繼上周「梁十招」 炒雜燴後，再以「擠牙膏」方式宣布「港人港地」政策，試行計劃是准備兩幅在啟德的住宅用地，未來會限制出售及轉售對象，局長預計約可提供1100夥單位。 無疑政府在一星期兩度出招，顯示其姿態，可惜並不實際，既不能轉移目下政情焦點，也不能撲熄樓市猛火。

內地A股低位爭持，繼續拖累港股。昨日恒指開市後跟隨A股回落，最低見19076點，午後續炒歐洲救市掉頭回升，收報19209點，上升64點。國企指數走勢超賣，跌穿9000點後回升，收報9069點。大市成交額437億元，沽空比率10％，民行(1988)依然是「空軍」目標。

9月科技股大旺
衍生市場前日殺牛後，投資者繼續博反彈，在市場熱炒買債憧憬下，恒指有望在19000點稍作喘息，並作出反彈，但大方向仍是有彈而無得上升。

股 市輪流炒作，再找一個壽命長一些的投資主題，殊不容易。9月份科技產品空群而出，繼三星先後推出手機Galaxy SIII後，近日推出新平板計算機，蘋果即將推iPhone5，微軟及亞瑪遜都正在籌謀推出新產品。蘋果有沒有泡沫，見仁見智，但無論閣下用短線或長線角 度來看，蘋果股價依然跑贏，本港股市只有零星幾只相關的智能手機設備股，瑞聲(2018)主打喇叭等聲學產品，舜宇光學(2382)主打鏡頭光學產品，前者配股過後，很快收複失地﹔後者績優後獲追捧，股價整固後仍是受惠股。
現 時講投資，到底還有什麼好買？「債王」宣稱「股票已死」後，被許多股票投資者群起圍攻，最新一期文章似有補鑊之意，但他表示，如果他是一個散戶投資者，現 時會根據年齡來平衡資產組合，年輕一點的話會?多一點股票，像他一樣年近六十的話則要?多一點債券﹔如果投資者選擇買基金、ETF的話，則要特別留意收 費，因為如果一年基金回報只有3％至4％，如何能付出1％費用成本呢？「債王」這番話，幾乎與每個保險經紀所說的一樣，那又何須勞煩「債王」呢？

事實上，股票已死，很大程度是投資者不再相信股票資產能夠帶來回報，不再願意承受股市上上落落的波動，故此，資金寧可買債但不買股票。買債前所未有地變成基金界潮流，近日讀報，多個報道值得留意。

《華 爾街日報》訪問多位私人銀行家、投資經理，整理時出現五個投資思路，包括：1)買垃圾債券，2)買市政債券，3)買住宅按揭抵押證券(RMBS)，4)買 新興市場債券，5)買周期性股票。買債再買債，因為利息，因為波動，更大原因是債券價格持續上升，但資金湧入債市，開始叫人擔心。

昨日 LEX欄文章「債券基金現泡沫」指出，今年基金公司持續推出債券基金產品，雖然沒有理由相信債券價格因此即將大跌，但大量債券基金供應，始終不是好兆頭。 基金產品市場一向頗具指針性，因為基金公司需要有回報數據來吸引投資者入市，故大量新產品出現，很多時候意味著該項資產過熱，過去農產品基金、新興市場股 票基金狂熱時，均具有見頂指標作用。

股市波動股民麻木
本欄持續看好企債，但不代表看好債券基金，他們是兩碼子的事情﹔而且，美國大量公司發債抽水，加上債券價格不斷攀升，物極必反，只是低息環境一日未逆轉，債券投資需求依然存在。

基 金資金流反映，垃圾企債及黃金基金持續有資金流入。及至昨日，金價突破每盎斯1700美元，證明金價上升其實無關QE3炒作，歐洲買債計劃或許帶動情緒， 但推動金價的另一因素，其實是錢作怪﹗PIMCO的基金減持垃圾債而買黃金，索羅斯去年賣金早前再兜翻，大戶投資者取態轉變，是資金推高金價的理由。長期 黃金大好友麥嘉華重申，全球央行只能夠不斷印銀紙，政府愈大，愈會濫用此機制，要對抗政府，他會不斷買金。

然而，金價雖然突破200天線，升到1700美元，再上到1800美元後，能否上到1900美元？金價上升由大戶資金支撐，意味著它雖具避險特點，但風險特點卻不斷增加，情況如國債一樣，波動起上來，價格大上大落，並且走勢由大戶資金調配所主導。

環 球股市的低成交，意味著投資者持續撤離股票資產，最多只不過是在短線買買賣賣。花旗分析員指出，過去投資者可以利用市場恐慌及亢奮的情緒指標，作出逆向操 作﹔可惜，如今股票投資者既不亢奮亦不恐慌，情緒指標有上落，但變化輕微。奇怪了？歐債危機尚未解決，全球經濟瀕臨衰退，中國股票下瀉未止，但投資市場 「擠牙膏」式帶來陣痛與憧憬，市場情緒不是恐慌及亢奮，只是麻木。

羅耕:最終還要開機印

說歐洲央行狂印銀紙救市，它不認的，因其貨幣基礎當中，banknotes incirculation才是「銀紙」，鑒於此數無大增，故無「狂印」。大增的是excess central bankliquidity。

那麼央行何來這麼多，近年共累增近8、9千億的「閑錢(excessliquidity)」呢？看看歐洲央行的錢怎來就知了。來源主要四處，如【圖】所見，最大三個依次為存款設施、定存及經常賬。換言之，歐洲央行救市的資金來源，主要是「挪用」區內銀行的存款！

近期存款縮了，怎算？靠經常賬。而這賬戶，正是日銀QE印鈔注資之處。 

美國2021年背債35兆美元 步希臘後路

《MarketWatch》報導，猶他州大學政經研究所專員 James R. Harrigan 和匹茲堡杜肯大學經濟教授 Antony Davies 發表報告指出，美國聯邦債務本周正式超越 16 兆美元，若政府不儘速投入 4 項重點改革，到了 2021 年美國就會步入如今希臘的慘狀。
美國國會預算辦公室 (CBO) 負責估測預算政策變化的影響，但事實證明，CBO 的預測結果並非相當準確。
每年 1 月，CBO 對接下來 10 年的美國經濟狀況做出預期報告，自從 1997 年以來，此機構在 110 次預測中有 85 次失準，沒有料到年度債務負擔如此沈重，比率幾乎高達 80％；CBO 給出的未來願景，簡直樂觀地令人莞爾。

10 年前 CBO 估測，今 (2012) 年美國債務總額應為 7.6 兆美元，事實上金額則高達 2 倍以上。不幸的是這已經是預料中結果，1997 年以來機構的預測數據，5 年期的債務估值總是比平均低了 40％。

目前 CBO 預估，2021 年美國聯邦債務將上達 25 兆美元，如果他們表現「如常」，那麼實際債務金額恐將飆至 35 兆美元。

國債高達 35 兆美元會是什麼光景？CBO 對於國民生產毛額 (GDP) 的預估倒還準確，它估計 2021 年國家總產值超過 24 兆美元，如此計算負債將幾乎達 GDP 的 150％，跟現在的希臘一樣。

金融市場體系構築已久，想做出更動恐怕需要好幾年，欲平息目前混亂需從 4 個層面下手：自由市場、健全貨幣、限制支出和時間。

第 1 項要素美國政府可以立即為人民做到，只要撤除監管體系的裙帶關係就好。監管機構保護人民財產權，這點很好；但監管機構限制競爭，獨善政治家青睞的產業，就有問題了。
要求醫生需有執照限制沒錯，但理髮師、花藝師、賣棺材的、養蜂人乃至室內設計師，各行各業都得靠政府發放許可證，這並不正確。

今時今日，每 3 個美國人裡就有 1 位的工作，需要仰賴政府許可才能營業，政府需要放寬對於美國民眾謀生方式的控管限制。

第 2 點健全貨幣，得從回歸黃金標準下手。有朝一日經濟理論可能發展先進，電腦系統強力讓人得以輕鬆管理貨幣供應。但現在時機還沒成熟，我們只需要停止試圖操作走勢就好，操盤總是讓情況越來越糟。

人們一旦匱乏現金，面臨的選擇就會變少，現在政府也該向此看齊。我們需要憲法修正案，以限制政府支出，並控制在 GDP 的 20％ 以下。

最後一點是時間，經濟市場的時間已經無剩所幾，如果國家領袖不迅速解決這些問題，鐵打的數字終將帶給我們真實的最後下場。

鉅亨網