2015年4月15日星期三

GFMS:2014年全球矿企平均维持成本1314美元/盎司


GFMS最新发布的报告中称,以1200美元/盎司的金价来看,全球有差不多一半的黄金矿企都处在亏损的状态中。

从矿企的全部维持成本(AISC)来看,2014年全球矿企的平均AISC在1314美元/盎司,比2013年减少了427美元/盎司,降幅达25%。

从年降幅来看,各矿企的成本削减还是很显眼的,但GFMS的报告称,这并不能完全反映出2014年矿企削减开支的成果。事实上,2013年矿企的资产减值被低估,2014年AISC中非现金开支占据了499美元/盎司,比2013年有大幅降低。


除了资产减值,AISC在2014年变得波动更小,同比下降3%。尤其这要和整个行业1266美元/盎司的黄金均价比。

从全球的金矿来看,有5%的金矿AISC超过3000美元/盎司,这些金矿将是难以长期维持的。



另外,很多主要黄金生产国的货币相较美元有大幅下跌,包括俄罗斯、澳大利亚、南非和巴西等。这些汇率变动在整个AISC中占大约70美元/盎司的份额,而原油价格下跌占8美元/盎司的份额,GFMS还认为金矿等级有差不多2%的涨幅,这为成本带来17美元/盎司的下降。

GFMS计算称,现金成本仅占全部AISC的57%。

在AISC中,人力成本增加了约78美元/盎司。

总体而言,以目前的金价看,各矿企已经使出了浑身解数降低成本获得收益,除非金价有出乎意料的大幅上涨,矿企将仍然面临压力。

GFMS预计称,今年的黄金矿产量将基本和去年持平。

Fall 2015 Turning Point-Civil Unrest and Riots-Martin Armstrong

http://usawatchdog.com/


4 
By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com  (Early Sunday Release)


Legendary financial analyst Martin Armstrong says the world is going to be hitting a major “turning point” this fall.  Armstrong says this is the end of a 300 year cycle and contends, “This appears to be a peak, as far as governments and bond markets are concerned, and from there, we are going to be turning down.  We are in a lot of trouble with most of these governments.  Our models say that by 2020, the amount of interest we pay . . . will exceed the entire defense budget.  So, this is pretty serious.”
Armstrong says his model marks the actual turning point on October 15, 2015.  So, what’s in store?  Armstrong says, “First, you get the deflation, and then, you move to the inflation.  It’s kind of like a pendulum–it swings to the extreme to both sides.”

So, when the government bond bubble pops, what happens to people getting a government check?  Armstrong says, “That’s the big problem.  They’ve wiped out pension funds all over the place.  That’s the danger of civil unrest, and that’s what our computers have been warning about as well as very serious sharp riots and third party activity for 2016. . . . When governments are broke, they come after us.”

Will the Fed finally raise interest rates?  Armstrong contends, “The Fed will have no real choice. . . . The Fed will come under significant pressure to raise interest rates because the newspapers and Congress will blame them and say they are creating a bubble with low interest rates.  The more they raise interest rates, the higher the stock market will go.  I know that sounds crazy . . . historically, interest rates bottom with the markets.  I mean, you lose confidence and people won’t borrow.”

Will rising interest rates kill the bond and housing markets?  Armstrong goes on to say, “The bond market, yes, it will accelerate the problems as far as other foreign countries that have issued dollar based debt.  The emerging markets will get like Greece.  So, we have a serious worldwide problem going on here.”

So, when the Fed starts raising rates, will some currencies collapse?  Armstrong says, “Sure, this is what’s pushing the dollar up.  Most people don’t realize that the dollar is the only real game in town.  In Europe, you see the difference in the mentality there compared to the United States.  In the United States, we are still in a fog; over there they feel the pain.  What are they doing?  They are basically selling all the euro debt everywhere, and they are buying the German debt.   It’s not that they think Germany is fantastic, but they are assuming that the euro is going to fail.”

On gold, Armstrong says, “Gold rises when people lose confidence in government.  It has nothing to do with inflation.  So, when you start to worry about government is not going to survive or who’s going to win, that’s when gold rises.  Short term, we still have the risk of it going under $1,000 per ounce.  It’s going to flip when everything is right.  It will probably max out at $5,000 per ounce. . . . You are really talking about a major reset coming.  300 years ago, that was the revolutions against monarchy.  Today, it’s going to be revolution against . . . pretend democracy.  We do not have a democracy.”

Armstrong says you can forget about the U.S. dollar crashing in value.  Armstrong contends, “No, that’s absurd.  The euro is in terrible shape.  The yen is in terrible shape, and honestly, you can’t park money in yuan or Russian rubles yet.  I mean, let’s be realistic here, but eventually– yes.”
In closing, Armstrong says just a few percentage points in rising rates are going to cause big losses and big changes.  Armstrong predicts, “People will be losing huge money.  We are looking at a few percentage points, and you are going to blow the national debts of all these countries way out of whack, and that’s what’s going to force political change.”

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with Martin Armstrong of ArmstrongEconomics.com.


歐銀放貸 倒貼利息

國際視野 - 王冠一 2015年4月15日


信不信問銀行借錢,銀行還要倒貼利息?

歐洲銀行同業拆息(Euribor)向來是歐洲銀行業的貸款息率指標,例如葡萄牙九成物業按揭貸款都與Euribor掛鈎,西班牙、意大利亦不遑多讓。隨著歐洲央行將隔夜存款利率減至負數,加上推出多個措施向銀行提供「平錢」增加銀行流動性,目前一個月Euribor已跌至負水平。換句話說,銀行想要向同業放貸,就需要以負利率來倒貼。同樣,銀行向貸款人「還息」也不是天方夜譚。

這是歐洲央行加碼量寬帶來的結果:負利率。歐洲央行下調隔夜存款利率的本意,是鼓勵銀行放貸。但如今出現放貸人反而要向貸款人送錢的怪現象,實在令人費解。

葡萄牙央行勒令,若相關貸款息率(Euribor加上額外息率)跌至負利率,銀行就需要向貸款人支付「利息」。目前大部分歐洲銀行簽訂的貸款協議,並未有設定貸款息率下限,銀行唯有無奈遵從,從貸款人的貸款額中直接扣除「利息」。

當然,你有張良計,我亦有過牆梯,銀行日後訂立貸款協議,必會訂立預防措施--息率下限。

然而,這樣的規條能鼓勵銀行增加貸款嗎?那不是本末倒置嗎?而且,面對資金過剩問題,銀行也不能坐視不理。

歐 洲央行周三舉行議息會議前夕公布新一份銀行貸款調查報告,顯示在極低息的環境下,企業對貸款需求增加,而歐洲銀行放貸額亦有所上升。調查指,9%的銀行在 過去一季放寬了借貸條款;1%的銀行預計未來三個月亦會放寬相關條款。不過,隨著負利率成為常態,銀行能持續送錢放貸嗎?

負利率下,貸 款額有機會愈來愈細,當借錢變成「零成本」甚至「有賺」,會否鼓勵市場投機行為,造成資產泡沫?而對銀行來說,當中期Euribor都開始跌至負水平時 (目前六個月Euribor為0.078%),更多相關掛鈎的貸款將受影響,屆時特別是二三線歐洲國家的銀行貸款風險或會上升,最終會否引發系統性風險 呢?這些都值得市場關注。

更重要是,當今天的歐元,比明天的歐元更有購買力時,就是通縮的警號。歐央行加碼買債計劃最終會否適得其反呢?應否還要繼續?

負利率引發的挑戰,相信只會愈來愈大。
王冠一財經頻道