http://www.ex-silver.com/
鑑於去年第四季度黃金市場大幅走軟，匯豐(HSBC)下調了2012年和2013年的金價預期，但表示仍看好黃金，原因是全球經濟前景黯淡以及主權債務問題刺激了對黃金的保值需求。
匯豐貴金屬分析師James Steel週三晚間在客戶報告中稱，該行目前預計今年黃金均價在每盎司1,850美元，低於之前預計的每盎司2,025美元；匯豐還將2013年的黃金均價預期從每盎司1,850美元下調至1,800美元。
Steel稱，由於銀行業萎縮以及去槓桿化操作可能引發全球通貨緊縮壓力，金價漲勢可能會因此受限，這就是匯豐下調金價預期的原因。
但他補充道，預計金價將在2012年回升，所以維持對金價的看漲觀點。
金價在2011年第四季度大幅走軟，因風險資產的下跌引發了大量與保證金相關的黃金交易清算。此外，新興市場的需求同樣疲軟，而印度的情況尤甚，因為當地金價大幅攀升。
不過，Steel認為，黃金市場最終會受益於任何負面的全球經濟形勢。
他預計2012年金價將在每盎司1,450-2,050美元的寬幅區間內波動。同時，匯豐對2014年金價的新預期為每盎司1,750美元，並維持其每盎司1,500美元的長期金價預期不變。
另外，匯豐還維持其對2012年與2013年銀價的預期不變，分別為每盎司34美元與每盎司32美元。 Steel稱，預計今年銀價將在每盎司27-38美元之間波動。
Steel認為，由於市場對銀幣及銀條的零售投資需求穩固，所以匯豐看漲銀價。他預計，今年交易所交易基金(ETF)的銀需求將回升，而且基於匯豐對工業產值的經濟預測，來自製造業的銀需求將出現適度增長。
2012年1月6日星期五
We Are Going To Kill The Dollar
投資者凱爾卑斯披露他與一名奧巴馬高級行政人員的討論，有關這場經濟危機將如何結束。答案是輸出我們的困境，透過貨幣貶值摧毀美元的全球遊戲使我們的出口 更便宜。這簡單地意味著他們將要印越來越多的美元，直到所有你們的購買力被毀去，而你將需要越來越多的美元來購買相同數量的商品。 （即是大型的通貨膨脹。）
Ted Butler: Commercials Have No Interest in Shorting Silver Again
Ted Butler has allowed the publication of a few paragraphs from his latest private subscription report, which includes some doozies.
Butler believes the short squeeze that took silver to $49.73 in April has taught the commercials how tight the physical silver market actually is, and that the commercials "appear to have no interest in massively shorting silver again". As a result, Butler looks for silver to make massive gains in the near futures, as the commercials turn and go net long, resulting in $50 silver appearing "cheap" in the near future.
The big commercial silver shorts had a near death experience when the price approached $50 in April. They were at the end of their rope and needed to do something in a hurry. That’s why they rigged prices lower; so that they could buy and save themselves. These well-connected commercials knew, perhaps for the very first time, just how tight the silver market had become and how close we were to a profound physical shortage. The key is that the silver shortage wasn’t caused by excessive speculative buying or a bubble or a mania. The extreme tightness and near shortage in silver was as a result of the gradual and cumulative impact of normal investment buying over the past five years. There is nothing to suggest that the long term and steady silver investment buying has ended.
Because there was no bubble or mania in silver, there was no bubble to burst. The orchestrated take-downs of the price by the big commercial interests were simply so that these commercials could buy and rid themselves of silver short positions. That’s done now. That means that the silver market is now in the best possible shape.
What lies ahead for silver is exciting. While we have not witnessed a bubble in silver yet, we will some day. The silver story and the dynamics of the market are too compelling for an investment mania not to emerge at some point. If anything, speculative sentiment has been completely wrung out from silver, clearing the way for speculators and investors to enter the market with a vengeance. At some point, enough of the world’s industrial silver users will panic as prices climb and attempt to build physical silver inventories. This user buying, something that never kicked in during the run to $50 will create a silver shortage, the likes of which never witnessed before. It seems that the big commercial interests have come to learn the real silver story and they appear to want no part of the short side again. The major pressure of selling has passed...and the way seems clear for higher prices. By the time the next chapter in the silver story plays out, $50 could look cheap.
Gold : the correction phase is not completely over
Marc Faber : ....In the case of gold, as you know we had a ten-year bull market and we peaked out in dollar terms on September 6 at $1,921 per ounce, at which stage the gold price had somewhat overshot on the upside and we are in a correction phase. I happen to think that the correction phase is not completely over, but recently sentiment on both silver and gold have turned very negative. We may have a trading rebound rally, and then some further weakness into possibly February or March, and then probably a major low. Then the question will be whether the precious metals rally again, and will they exceed the peak of 2011 or not. - in CNBC TV 18
These 8 Analysts See Gold Going to $3,000 – $10,000 in 2012! Here’s Why
Back in 2009 I began keeping track of those financial analysts, economists, academics and commentators who were of the opinion that it was just a matter of time before gold reached a parabolic peak price well in excess of the prevailing price. As time passed the list grew dramatically and at last count numbered 140 such individuals who have gone on record as saying that gold will go to at least $3,000 – and as high as $20,000 – before the gold bubble finally pops. Of more immediate interest, however, is that 8 of those individuals believe gold will reach its parabolic peak price in the next 12 months – even as early as February, 2012. This article identifies those 8 and outlines their rationale for reaching their individual price expectations.
Wilson goes on to report:
Arnold Bock: $10,000
As Bock said in an article entitled $10,000 Gold is Coming in 2012/13! Here’s Why back in mid-June, 2010:
“No wishful thinking here! As I see it gold is going to a parabolic top of $10,000 by 2012 for very good reasons: sovereign debt defaults, bankruptcies of “too big to fail” banks and other financial entities, currency inflation and devaluations – which will all contribute to rampant price inflation.”
Bock wrote another article in March, 2011 entitled Get Ready for Financial Crisis 2.0 in 2012 – It’s Inevitable! Here’s Why in which he expanded on his observations of the economic climate by saying in his opening comments:
“2012 is shaping up to be the blockbuster main event of the ongoing financial crisis. Massive amounts of new debt, vast quantities of additional digital dollars and the spark of higher interest rates will set off version 2.0 of the credit-driven financial implosion.”
Porter Stansberry: $10,000
In Stansberry’s December 2009 article entitled This Little-Known Rule Could Send Gold to $10,000 he wrote:
” [Back in 1999] two well-known economists – Alan Greenspan and Pablo Guidotti – published a secret formula in a 1999 academic paper. The formula is called the Greenspan-Guidotti rule. The rule states: To avoid a default, countries should maintain hard currency reserves equal to at least 100% of their short-term foreign debt maturities. The world’s largest money-management firm, PIMCO, explains the rule this way: ‘The minimum benchmark of reserves equal to at least 100% of short-term external debt is known as the Greenspan-Guidotti rule. Greenspan-Guidotti is perhaps the single concept of reserve adequacy that has the most adherents and empirical support.’
The principle behind the rule is simple. If you can’t pay off all of your foreign debts in the next 12 months, you’re a terrible credit risk. Speculators are going to target your bonds and your currency, making it impossible to refinance your debts. A default is assured.
Greenspan-Guidotti means the U.S. is likely to have a severe currency crisis within the next two years. How high will gold go during this crisis? Nobody can say for sure. We’ve never been in the situation we are now. The numbers have never been so large and dangerous but I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see gold at $10,000 an ounce by 2012. Make sure you own some.”
Taran Marwah: $6,000
“Our target for Gold since October 2010 has been US$6000 by December 2012… thru Q2 2013… Excess money printing will cause debasing of the mighty US Dollar. In this scenario of hyperinflation, wherein the…US Dollar is collapsing, the only way to protect your wealth is holding on to ‘Physical Gold’. Please start thinking on the lines of “wealth protection” and “preservation”. Physical Gold is the only financial asset in the world that is not simultaneously somebody else’s liability. That is the reason why we have been advising everyone since 2009 to buy ‘physical Gold’ [and recommending that they] store the bars outside the commercial banking system as most commercial banks in USA and Europe will be “insolvent” by December 2012. We repeat – Physical Gold is the only asset which will give “best returns” from 2009 through 2012.”
Goldrunner: $3,000+
Goldrunner uses fractal analysis off the gold bull market of the 1970s to arrive at his assessment of where gold is now in the bull run and where it is going. In his November, 2011 article he set forth the basics of his technical analysis and said:
“Early this year we suggested a 50% rise in Gold to $1860 – $1,920 into mid-year. Now, we see the Gold tsunami realizing an approximate 100% rise that will crest at $3,000+ into the middle of 2012.”
Bob Chapman: $2,500 – $3,000
In Chapman’s August, 2011 issue of the International Forecaster he had this to say about gold:
“Debt monetization will lead to ever-higher inflation…and explain the systemic problem of many nations, which have nowhere to turn to except the creation of money and credit to temporarily keep their economies going…[and] when you put it all together you get higher gold and silver prices…We would expect a move to $2,000 to $2,200, some backing and filling and a move to $2,500 to $3,000 by the end of February 2012, as we earlier predicted.”
Ian McAvity: $2,500 – $3,000
Ian McAvity, author of the newsletter, Deliberations on World Markets, speaking on Mineweb.com’s Gold Weekly podcast in June of 2010, said that while he is a gold bug, buying gold in the current economic climate is very much like buying life insurance for a short term capital gain. McAvity says that he expects gold to head north toward the $3,000 level over the next two years [i.e. sometime in 2012] but, says he cannot yet quantify “the magnitude of the crisis that takes it higher”. According to McAvity, one of the most critical factors for the gold price currently is the return on risk-free capital which is currently negative in real terms saying:
“As long as the yield on treasury bills is 40 to 50 basis points, then the perceived inflation rate is 200 to 300 basis points – basically holding paper is negative. And that is one of the strongest underlying features of the gold market and we basically have the central bankers and their quantitative easing load saying that they’re going to try and keep interest rates as close to zero as possible, until they successfully borrow their way out of debt. The concept of borrowing your way out of debt is I guess, the new math that I haven’t quite grasped yet.”
Kurtis Hemmerling: $2,500 – $3,000
In an August 2011 article posted at Seeking Alpha entitled How to Play Parabolic Gold Prices With a $2,500-8,000 Target Hemmerling says:
“While I put a one year price target of $2,500 – $3,000, it is difficult to know with any surety…but I think some added ‘shock news’ as we toy with another recession and the convoluted problems of the euro-zone, compounded by inflationary stimulus – will see the U.S. dollar-based price of gold go much higher over the next few months. My target is largely based on the recent steep climb that is getting dangerously close to setting up a parabolic price move. Fear is the catalyst, and I think resistance will be met at $2,000 based on it being a round psychological number. After some churning when it breaks that – we could see another big run between $2,500 and $3,000.”
Mary Anne and Pamela Aden: $2,000 – $3,000
In the April 2010 issue of The Aden Forecast the Aden sisters expressed their view that:
“[In the chart below] you can see an interesting pattern that’s been going on since 1969. Note that each major eight year low was followed by a major peak 11 years later. The only exception was the 1993 low, but in that case the low was mild within an essentially quiet market (see asterisk).
If this 11 year pattern continues, we could see gold shoot up to the $2000 – $3000 level within the next two years [i.e. by 2012]. But since today’s economic situation is historically extreme, we could see much higher prices for a longer period of time… well beyond 2012, and more like 2017-2018.
In their latest (November 2011) forecast they were still optimistic saying “gold is near a normal high area within a major uptrend, but it has yet to experience any type of explosive action. This is likely still to come once this current period of weakness is over.”
It should be noted here that the leverage of gold mining shares vis-a-vis the price performance of gold bullion plus the added leverage of the warrants of such companies vis-a-vis the performance of their associated stock supports the possibility of amazing gains for the right warrants of the right junior miners in the years ahead. For the implications that the Adens’ forecast would have on the prospects for long-term warrants please read this article.
Out of the 140 analysts who are on record as stating that gold will eventually undergo a parabolic move in price to $3,000 and beyond (see here) only the above 8 analysts have made specific price projections for 2012. If I am mistaken and there are others please do not hesitate to send me an email with the article URL to editor@munknee.com.
羅家聰:美樓跌進下半場揭示全球新風向
去年去杠杆下，金融、地產兩大杠杆行業首當其沖。跌市，就算大跌亦未算難捱，起碼大跌意味見底，牛市重臨。最難捱是跌幅不大但陰幹漫長，成交勁縮，不單本港，就是中美外圍的股樓二市，同樣買賣兩閑、有價無市。此乃杠杆行業從業員最難過時。
是故新年伊始，縱有末日、大凶預言在前，人們仍皆傾向看好的一邊，高唱今年複蘇；從證券界一致預期恒指今年將先低後高見兩萬以上、地產界預期樓市春節後回升可見，他們雖然心照這與目前客觀環境根本不符，但畢竟餓市過久也難免產生「升市蜃樓」。
數十年來，美國這經濟龍頭都在帶領全球經濟大市，即使金融海嘯亦無改變此象。究其原因，是美國對全球的產業及資金(包括美元、美債)滲透力實在驚人。零息QE將資金趕往東移，紅海(東經38度)以東包括中東、中亞、亞太地區受惠資金流入，形成資產泡沫，股樓皆升。瘋狂起樓尤其摩天大廈，GDP增長一定快的。
這種泡沫，見諸金融地產也見諸實體經濟。被此假象蒙蔽而迷信新興市場概念者，去年已得教訓。加之新興樓市泡沫剛爆，真正複蘇未必是今周期的事。看來今趟複蘇龍頭，仍在美國。
曾指美國經濟領先指標，繼領先四至六季的孳息曲線後，到領先兩、三季的樓市，接著是領先一、兩季的股市及ECRI。孳息曲線早被扭曲操作，玩殘廢了。最領先的，只剩樓市。然而，領先指標雖快但易出錯，要作確認便需要多屬基本因素的滯後指標。
另外，綜覽基本因素，也可窺探美國樓價以至經濟在本逆轉周期後真正見底機會多大。
樓災風眼已掠過
記得沙士後本港樓價見底時，負資產數字是最劣的，可見一旦去到「銀主」這步，最後的了。美國一樣，在供樓拖欠(delinquency)不果後，結局有三個層次：先被收樓(realestate owned, REO)，繼而是斷供(foreclosure)或破產(bankruptcy)。
後兩者的最大分別在於斷供後仍可被追債，但破產後則受保護；固然，宣布破產的後遺症較多。觀圖所見，較壞結局的斷供、破產比率仍在上升，但「較佳」結局的收樓，則早於上次樓價回落時已見頂【圖1】。這予我們理由推斷，樓市的熊市應近或已踏入下半場了。
從破產的分項數字亦見，無論下等的次按、中等的Alt-A及上等的優按，皆在上升【圖2】；但次按的收樓比率近年大跌，可見樓災風眼已過。這可從另一套數據印證。
收樓之前通常是拖欠，從彭博及按揭銀行家協會(Mortgage Bankers Association,MBA)兩套獨立數據皆見，近兩年來拖欠一直改善【圖3】。即使上述彭博數據指斷供上升，但MBA的卻見比率平穩。畢竟兩套數據抽樣、算法各異，這里不必深究分歧原因。
何解？只要聚焦優按的斷供比率，即見這兩套數據皆呈回落趨勢【圖4，實線】；斷供升的都是次按。另以定息、浮息按揭劃分亦見，定按斷供比率自去年似有見頂跡象【圖5，實線】；浮息按揭斷供亦僅次按在升，優按早見改善。這些無疑都是好兆頭。
兆頭好壞也可從滯後指標中的領先部分窺探。斷供、破產前收樓，再之前是拖欠。觀圖所見，拖欠一至三個月的比率皆跌【圖6】。最重要是，短期拖欠並無呈現升勢；短的不升，中、長期的自會受控。別奢望比率會一下子跌到樓市最佳的2006年水平，以目前回落了升幅的一半(即約過去數年的中間位)看來，熊市也應近或達下半場。
現樓銷售露造底跡象
固然，不是樓價跌就等於見底；另一重要因素是民間恢複購買能力。負擔比率就是量度這兩供求方面的指標。趨勢可見，美國人過去幾年的購屋能力事實上在反複上升，以100為中位收入剛夠買中價屋來定義指數，目前近200水平意味購買力是剛夠的一倍【圖7】。
另一反映供求缺口的指標是空置率。觀圖亦見，數字自2009年見頂回落至今【圖8】。出租空置率跌得比自住的明顯，反映投資或投機盤的改善較用家盤為明顯，而前者往往較後者能推高樓價。所謂見微知著，讀者由此可知細看數據分項之重要。
看了這麼多滯後指標，我們應更有信心得出樓市熊市已近或進下半場。幾時轉角？那便要回到領先指標了。最領先的，理論上是建樓，之後才到售樓。建樓的兩大指標，是建築許可及新屋動工。不難發現，兩個數字過去一年似呈上升趨勢【圖9，紅黃二線】。至於領先經濟半年以上的現樓銷售，其實也顯見造底跡象，只有新屋銷售仍然低迷。
固然，這些建屋、售樓指標雖似造底，未必很快大升，甚或再會續跌。然而，對於擅觀圖者，愈跌愈慢是見底征兆，這與上述各圖的斷供、拖欠愈升愈慢是一脈相承的。
照數時差，如果這些指標真已造底，美國經濟有望今年開始造底，盡管未知何時回升。如是看來，道指去年10月初穿10500點的一次，或許已是美股在打底期的第一個底。
最後看看樓市的主角──樓價【圖10】。美國月度的樓價指數，綜合計的有兩個，一、二手樓則各一個。由2006年高位到去年低位計算，官方的聯邦住屋融資機構指數(FederalHousing Finance Agency, FHFA)剛剛累跌兩成；而由樓市權威學者Karl Case與泡沫專家RobertShiller聯同標普(Case-Shiller/S＆P)共同編制的指數較多人參考，五年間高低跌去三分之一；全國房產經紀協會(NationalAssociation of Realtors, NAR)的現樓價格跌幅相約；至於普查局(CensusBureau)的新屋樓價則高低累跌兩成二。
量升或只因需求作崇
換言之，美國樓價普遍累跌僅兩成至三分之一，比起不少其他「樓熊」算是溫和。
比較圖九圖十亦見，二手的現樓價「肯跌」，但一手的新屋價反而逆市升，故以銷量計，現樓賣得比新屋好。這亦教曉我們要留意一點：圖九的現樓銷售之所以理想，或許只是需求效應(Lawof Demand)作崇。
如果量升純因價跌，即僅價量系統內(endogenous)的事而非由外在(exogenous)經濟因素帶動的話，現階段便難以斷言樓價將近見底。
雖說圖十也呈愈跌愈慢之勢、樓價跌市半場已過幾可肯定，但跌得慢可會跌得長；一如本港上次樓跌，急跌一年(1997：10─1998：10)，慢跌卻逾四年(1998：12─2003：7)。圖十所見，2010年下半年會否已開始了一較長的慢跌期呢？答不到了，建樓指標雖可提供領先性的線索，但單靠局部的樓市供求回複平衡未夠，若整體經濟供求未能配合，樓價縱將見底也只能低迷，難以快速回升；一如1978至82年的美股，見底但不升。
為何一開年就大篇幅探討大多數讀者不大可能買的美國樓市呢？每逢元旦，紐西蘭是首個過年的國家；美國樓市與環球複蘇，彷佛就是紐西蘭與全球踏入元旦，之間似無關系，但卻甚具啟示。
觀乎紅海以東的中東、亞洲還有這麼多的摩天大廈，以事論事，複蘇先鋒顯然不在這邊。須知環球的經濟及股市周期(即上落)，至目前這分鍾為止，依然緊系美國。項莊舞劍意在沛公，為美國樓市尋底，還不過是為大多數資產摸底？
是故新年伊始，縱有末日、大凶預言在前，人們仍皆傾向看好的一邊，高唱今年複蘇；從證券界一致預期恒指今年將先低後高見兩萬以上、地產界預期樓市春節後回升可見，他們雖然心照這與目前客觀環境根本不符，但畢竟餓市過久也難免產生「升市蜃樓」。
數十年來，美國這經濟龍頭都在帶領全球經濟大市，即使金融海嘯亦無改變此象。究其原因，是美國對全球的產業及資金(包括美元、美債)滲透力實在驚人。零息QE將資金趕往東移，紅海(東經38度)以東包括中東、中亞、亞太地區受惠資金流入，形成資產泡沫，股樓皆升。瘋狂起樓尤其摩天大廈，GDP增長一定快的。
這種泡沫，見諸金融地產也見諸實體經濟。被此假象蒙蔽而迷信新興市場概念者，去年已得教訓。加之新興樓市泡沫剛爆，真正複蘇未必是今周期的事。看來今趟複蘇龍頭，仍在美國。
曾指美國經濟領先指標，繼領先四至六季的孳息曲線後，到領先兩、三季的樓市，接著是領先一、兩季的股市及ECRI。孳息曲線早被扭曲操作，玩殘廢了。最領先的，只剩樓市。然而，領先指標雖快但易出錯，要作確認便需要多屬基本因素的滯後指標。
另外，綜覽基本因素，也可窺探美國樓價以至經濟在本逆轉周期後真正見底機會多大。
樓災風眼已掠過
記得沙士後本港樓價見底時，負資產數字是最劣的，可見一旦去到「銀主」這步，最後的了。美國一樣，在供樓拖欠(delinquency)不果後，結局有三個層次：先被收樓(realestate owned, REO)，繼而是斷供(foreclosure)或破產(bankruptcy)。
後兩者的最大分別在於斷供後仍可被追債，但破產後則受保護；固然，宣布破產的後遺症較多。觀圖所見，較壞結局的斷供、破產比率仍在上升，但「較佳」結局的收樓，則早於上次樓價回落時已見頂【圖1】。這予我們理由推斷，樓市的熊市應近或已踏入下半場了。
從破產的分項數字亦見，無論下等的次按、中等的Alt-A及上等的優按，皆在上升【圖2】；但次按的收樓比率近年大跌，可見樓災風眼已過。這可從另一套數據印證。
收樓之前通常是拖欠，從彭博及按揭銀行家協會(Mortgage Bankers Association,MBA)兩套獨立數據皆見，近兩年來拖欠一直改善【圖3】。即使上述彭博數據指斷供上升，但MBA的卻見比率平穩。畢竟兩套數據抽樣、算法各異，這里不必深究分歧原因。
何解？只要聚焦優按的斷供比率，即見這兩套數據皆呈回落趨勢【圖4，實線】；斷供升的都是次按。另以定息、浮息按揭劃分亦見，定按斷供比率自去年似有見頂跡象【圖5，實線】；浮息按揭斷供亦僅次按在升，優按早見改善。這些無疑都是好兆頭。
兆頭好壞也可從滯後指標中的領先部分窺探。斷供、破產前收樓，再之前是拖欠。觀圖所見，拖欠一至三個月的比率皆跌【圖6】。最重要是，短期拖欠並無呈現升勢；短的不升，中、長期的自會受控。別奢望比率會一下子跌到樓市最佳的2006年水平，以目前回落了升幅的一半(即約過去數年的中間位)看來，熊市也應近或達下半場。
現樓銷售露造底跡象
固然，不是樓價跌就等於見底；另一重要因素是民間恢複購買能力。負擔比率就是量度這兩供求方面的指標。趨勢可見，美國人過去幾年的購屋能力事實上在反複上升，以100為中位收入剛夠買中價屋來定義指數，目前近200水平意味購買力是剛夠的一倍【圖7】。
另一反映供求缺口的指標是空置率。觀圖亦見，數字自2009年見頂回落至今【圖8】。出租空置率跌得比自住的明顯，反映投資或投機盤的改善較用家盤為明顯，而前者往往較後者能推高樓價。所謂見微知著，讀者由此可知細看數據分項之重要。
看了這麼多滯後指標，我們應更有信心得出樓市熊市已近或進下半場。幾時轉角？那便要回到領先指標了。最領先的，理論上是建樓，之後才到售樓。建樓的兩大指標，是建築許可及新屋動工。不難發現，兩個數字過去一年似呈上升趨勢【圖9，紅黃二線】。至於領先經濟半年以上的現樓銷售，其實也顯見造底跡象，只有新屋銷售仍然低迷。
固然，這些建屋、售樓指標雖似造底，未必很快大升，甚或再會續跌。然而，對於擅觀圖者，愈跌愈慢是見底征兆，這與上述各圖的斷供、拖欠愈升愈慢是一脈相承的。
照數時差，如果這些指標真已造底，美國經濟有望今年開始造底，盡管未知何時回升。如是看來，道指去年10月初穿10500點的一次，或許已是美股在打底期的第一個底。
最後看看樓市的主角──樓價【圖10】。美國月度的樓價指數，綜合計的有兩個，一、二手樓則各一個。由2006年高位到去年低位計算，官方的聯邦住屋融資機構指數(FederalHousing Finance Agency, FHFA)剛剛累跌兩成；而由樓市權威學者Karl Case與泡沫專家RobertShiller聯同標普(Case-Shiller/S＆P)共同編制的指數較多人參考，五年間高低跌去三分之一；全國房產經紀協會(NationalAssociation of Realtors, NAR)的現樓價格跌幅相約；至於普查局(CensusBureau)的新屋樓價則高低累跌兩成二。
量升或只因需求作崇
換言之，美國樓價普遍累跌僅兩成至三分之一，比起不少其他「樓熊」算是溫和。
比較圖九圖十亦見，二手的現樓價「肯跌」，但一手的新屋價反而逆市升，故以銷量計，現樓賣得比新屋好。這亦教曉我們要留意一點：圖九的現樓銷售之所以理想，或許只是需求效應(Lawof Demand)作崇。
如果量升純因價跌，即僅價量系統內(endogenous)的事而非由外在(exogenous)經濟因素帶動的話，現階段便難以斷言樓價將近見底。
雖說圖十也呈愈跌愈慢之勢、樓價跌市半場已過幾可肯定，但跌得慢可會跌得長；一如本港上次樓跌，急跌一年(1997：10─1998：10)，慢跌卻逾四年(1998：12─2003：7)。圖十所見，2010年下半年會否已開始了一較長的慢跌期呢？答不到了，建樓指標雖可提供領先性的線索，但單靠局部的樓市供求回複平衡未夠，若整體經濟供求未能配合，樓價縱將見底也只能低迷，難以快速回升；一如1978至82年的美股，見底但不升。
為何一開年就大篇幅探討大多數讀者不大可能買的美國樓市呢？每逢元旦，紐西蘭是首個過年的國家；美國樓市與環球複蘇，彷佛就是紐西蘭與全球踏入元旦，之間似無關系，但卻甚具啟示。
觀乎紅海以東的中東、亞洲還有這麼多的摩天大廈，以事論事，複蘇先鋒顯然不在這邊。須知環球的經濟及股市周期(即上落)，至目前這分鍾為止，依然緊系美國。項莊舞劍意在沛公，為美國樓市尋底，還不過是為大多數資產摸底？
投資=riskybusiness?
1月5日，周四。「商品大王」羅傑斯建議Long歐羅Short黃金，結果落筆打三更，金價於千六美元企穩，歐羅卻弱過「藥煲」，執筆時已跌穿1.28美元水平，創出2010年9月以來新低。睇情形，歐羅「空軍」意猶未盡得勢不饒人，在挾淡倉潮出現前，羅傑斯的歐羅長倉恐怕已率先給「震散」。
希臘違約風險升溫
踏入2012年，《天與地》曲終人散、《那些年》只成追憶，唯一不變的是歐羅區殘局不知如何收拾。希臘無秩序違約之說甚囂塵上，雅典政府跟「三巨頭」(歐盟、IMF、歐洲央行)一旦傾唔掂數，第二筆金額逾千億歐羅的經援無法如期發放，希臘違約風險便極高。上網一窺希臘年初連串重要事項，「三巨頭」代表本月16日將出訪雅典，檢討希臘經濟和財政狀況，向當局施壓逼其在緊縮措施上加一把勁，在所難免。問題是，希臘4月便要舉行大選，政府若照足「三巨頭」吩咐，大降公私部門薪津福利，群情洶湧勢在必然，選情不利不在話下。然而，對「三巨頭」壓力敷衍了事，經援談判拉倒，希臘今年3月底到期贖回的債券便難逃違約厄運，恐慌擴散境況堪虞。《華爾街日報》周四報道，希臘總理已發出警告，該國與「三巨頭」月底談判倘失敗收場，第二筆經援最終泡湯，希臘無秩序違約最快將於3月發生。
歐羅區衰開有條路，希臘危情再現之餘，法國賣債也未獲足額認購，十年期國債相對德債息差在短短一周內從100點子擴闊至149點子，升幅近五成，而被視為歐債「恐慌指標」的意大利十年期債息亦重上7厘水平，該國主要錢莊UniCredit以大折讓價供股，計劃集資75億歐羅，參與包銷的銀行雖多得出乎意料，惟「基礎股東」(cornerstoneshareholders)卻似乎不為所動，寧可將供股權沽掉也不跟銀行同舟共濟，難怪UniCredit股價連續兩天跌至七個一皮，深深拖累歐洲金融板塊。港股在歐債風雲再起、A股持續尋底下尚能靠穩，已算有所交代。然而，希臘能否避過違約，農曆年前後便有眉目，投資者須作好riskoff准備。
Risk On？Risk Off？
講開riskoff，金融海嘯歐債危機令投資世界生態徹底改變，昔日勤做功課，朝刨業績晚看估值的投資者，驚覺基礎分析不合時宜多此一舉；在愈來愈多人眼中，投資變成風險與避險的循環交替，宏觀環境改善、大國央行救市，投資者便買入屬性相類關連性高的riskyassets(股票商品外幣)；危機惡化、信貸緊縮變本加厲，資金即一窩蜂湧進美元美債日圓避難。不少大行看准此一市場「新常態」，推出RiskOn/Risk Off指數，追蹤相關資產表現。部分投資銀行眼見機不可失，索性連「賭具」亦一並提供，讓投資者在risk on、riskoff中乘風破浪，像買大細一樣賭個不亦樂乎。
去年底，瑞銀就覷准時機，推出按「風險資產」和「避險天堂」歸類的交易所買賣票據(ETN)，前者在紐交所的編號為ONN，後者編號則為OFF，riskon、risk off悉隨尊便。
然而，這種產品背後的假設是，風險資產升時齊升跌時齊跌(避險資產亦一樣)，既然如此，購入追蹤單項風險資產的交易所買賣基金(ETF)，較之能源、股票、農產品、基本金屬一手抓，回報即使不勝亦應相差無幾，何須貪多務得？一旦避險情緒升溫，市場上亦早有美債美彙ETF供投資者選擇，而聲稱在跌市中能逆向「複制」回報(資產價格跌多少，ETF便升多少)的inverseETF，名不符實效率奇低者多不勝數，又要避險又貪得無厭，小心偷雞唔到蝕把米。
歐羅美股相關性下降
值得一提的是，2010和2011年，歐羅兌美元彙價(EUR/USD)跟美股標普500指數(SPX)的正向相關性(positivecorrelation)，沒有十足亦有八九成，基於EUR/USD與SPX大部分時間同上同落，歐羅兌美元彙價遂成投資市場上一個極重要的riskon/riskoff指標。然而，自歐洲央行上月推出三年期再融資操作(LTRO)以來，EUR/USD跟SPX的相關性便大大走樣，兩者背馳屢見不鮮，反而熱門利差交易(carrytrade)貨幣如澳元，與美股仍能維持亦步亦趨的走勢【圖】。
EUR/USD跟美股不再同步上落，而此勢起於歐洲央行推出LTRO之後，老畢相信，那是由於市場認為LTRO對紓緩區內銀行資金短絀有利，減低美股對歐債危機的憂慮，惟風險只是由金融機構轉移至歐洲央行，並不意味風險消失，從老畢昨天提及的歐美央行資產負債表規模消長，此情此景可見一斑。
歐羅作為risk on/risk off指標是否仍然有效，有必要打上一個大大的問號。
希臘違約風險升溫
踏入2012年，《天與地》曲終人散、《那些年》只成追憶，唯一不變的是歐羅區殘局不知如何收拾。希臘無秩序違約之說甚囂塵上，雅典政府跟「三巨頭」(歐盟、IMF、歐洲央行)一旦傾唔掂數，第二筆金額逾千億歐羅的經援無法如期發放，希臘違約風險便極高。上網一窺希臘年初連串重要事項，「三巨頭」代表本月16日將出訪雅典，檢討希臘經濟和財政狀況，向當局施壓逼其在緊縮措施上加一把勁，在所難免。問題是，希臘4月便要舉行大選，政府若照足「三巨頭」吩咐，大降公私部門薪津福利，群情洶湧勢在必然，選情不利不在話下。然而，對「三巨頭」壓力敷衍了事，經援談判拉倒，希臘今年3月底到期贖回的債券便難逃違約厄運，恐慌擴散境況堪虞。《華爾街日報》周四報道，希臘總理已發出警告，該國與「三巨頭」月底談判倘失敗收場，第二筆經援最終泡湯，希臘無秩序違約最快將於3月發生。
歐羅區衰開有條路，希臘危情再現之餘，法國賣債也未獲足額認購，十年期國債相對德債息差在短短一周內從100點子擴闊至149點子，升幅近五成，而被視為歐債「恐慌指標」的意大利十年期債息亦重上7厘水平，該國主要錢莊UniCredit以大折讓價供股，計劃集資75億歐羅，參與包銷的銀行雖多得出乎意料，惟「基礎股東」(cornerstoneshareholders)卻似乎不為所動，寧可將供股權沽掉也不跟銀行同舟共濟，難怪UniCredit股價連續兩天跌至七個一皮，深深拖累歐洲金融板塊。港股在歐債風雲再起、A股持續尋底下尚能靠穩，已算有所交代。然而，希臘能否避過違約，農曆年前後便有眉目，投資者須作好riskoff准備。
Risk On？Risk Off？
講開riskoff，金融海嘯歐債危機令投資世界生態徹底改變，昔日勤做功課，朝刨業績晚看估值的投資者，驚覺基礎分析不合時宜多此一舉；在愈來愈多人眼中，投資變成風險與避險的循環交替，宏觀環境改善、大國央行救市，投資者便買入屬性相類關連性高的riskyassets(股票商品外幣)；危機惡化、信貸緊縮變本加厲，資金即一窩蜂湧進美元美債日圓避難。不少大行看准此一市場「新常態」，推出RiskOn/Risk Off指數，追蹤相關資產表現。部分投資銀行眼見機不可失，索性連「賭具」亦一並提供，讓投資者在risk on、riskoff中乘風破浪，像買大細一樣賭個不亦樂乎。
去年底，瑞銀就覷准時機，推出按「風險資產」和「避險天堂」歸類的交易所買賣票據(ETN)，前者在紐交所的編號為ONN，後者編號則為OFF，riskon、risk off悉隨尊便。
然而，這種產品背後的假設是，風險資產升時齊升跌時齊跌(避險資產亦一樣)，既然如此，購入追蹤單項風險資產的交易所買賣基金(ETF)，較之能源、股票、農產品、基本金屬一手抓，回報即使不勝亦應相差無幾，何須貪多務得？一旦避險情緒升溫，市場上亦早有美債美彙ETF供投資者選擇，而聲稱在跌市中能逆向「複制」回報(資產價格跌多少，ETF便升多少)的inverseETF，名不符實效率奇低者多不勝數，又要避險又貪得無厭，小心偷雞唔到蝕把米。
歐羅美股相關性下降
值得一提的是，2010和2011年，歐羅兌美元彙價(EUR/USD)跟美股標普500指數(SPX)的正向相關性(positivecorrelation)，沒有十足亦有八九成，基於EUR/USD與SPX大部分時間同上同落，歐羅兌美元彙價遂成投資市場上一個極重要的riskon/riskoff指標。然而，自歐洲央行上月推出三年期再融資操作(LTRO)以來，EUR/USD跟SPX的相關性便大大走樣，兩者背馳屢見不鮮，反而熱門利差交易(carrytrade)貨幣如澳元，與美股仍能維持亦步亦趨的走勢【圖】。
EUR/USD跟美股不再同步上落，而此勢起於歐洲央行推出LTRO之後，老畢相信，那是由於市場認為LTRO對紓緩區內銀行資金短絀有利，減低美股對歐債危機的憂慮，惟風險只是由金融機構轉移至歐洲央行，並不意味風險消失，從老畢昨天提及的歐美央行資產負債表規模消長，此情此景可見一斑。
歐羅作為risk on/risk off指標是否仍然有效，有必要打上一個大大的問號。
２０１１年起美國和加拿大白銀產量還不夠鑄造銀幣鳥
Time Changes Everything - Bill Monroe
2007年起中國白銀產量已經不夠國內消耗需要進口了。 2010年自產1.027億盎斯白銀， 只有150萬盎斯鑄了銀貓。 2011年自產1.046億盎斯白銀， 有600萬盎斯鑄了銀貓。
2011年中國進口白銀7200萬盎斯，而白銀平均價格基本沒變， 這樣的好事能持續多久？
2012中國白銀亦會減少出口,銀貓今年產量已公佈為800萬盎斯
Domestic Chinese silver consumption outpaces China supply-CPM Group
Precious metals consultants, CPM Group, predict Chinese silver fabrication demand will rise 15.6% to 177.2 million ounces this year, well exceeding the forecast 104.6 million of domestic silver mining production.
Author: Dorothy KosichPosted: Wednesday , 11 May 2011
In their Silver Yearbook 2011, New York-based precious metals consultants CPM Group is calling attention to China's importance not only as the world's third largest silver miner but also as a major global silver consumer.
While Chinese silver mine supply accounted for roughly 16% of global silver mine production last year, CPM Group noted the country was also a major manufacturer of many silver-containing products, such as electronics, solar modules, brazing alloys, and jewelry.
For the first time, CPM was able to integrate domestic fabrication demand and investment demand statistics for China's silver market and integrate those statistics into its market economy supply and demand data for this year.
CPM said it has worked to develop better estimates of silver use in China and developed what it feels are sufficiently reliable statistics on Chinese silver mine production, scrap recovery, and fabrication demand by major industrial category, relying on a network of industry associations and industrial participants in these markets.
"China's silver market is roughly three times the size it was in 2000," CPM noted in its recently published Silver Yearbook 2011. "China is the third largest producer of mined silver in the world. China also is a major consumer of silver, absorbing large and rapidly growing volumes of silver in its electronic manufacturing sector."
"Chinese silver mining witnesses significant growth and development in recent years, fueled by technological strides in exploration and an increase in production in response to steady growth in domestic and international demand," CPM said.
For instance, CPM found domestic demand for silver has outpaced supply growth. "China was a net exporter of silver until 2006, but became a net importer in 2007."
"Chinese investment demand for silver coins and medals began to rise at a double digit pace in 2008, a trend likely to continue as consumers seek to preserve their wealth amid rising inflation in the economy," CPM forecast.
The Chinese mine supply of silver totaled 102.7 million ounces in 2010, according to CPM. More than two-thirds of that output is from silver contained in copper, lead, zinc and gold concentrates. "Consequently, China's refined silver production has been growing in tandem with base metals output."
CPM predicts silver mine production could increase to 104.6 million ounces this year. "China's silver mine supply is expected to increase over the next few years, driven mainly by production expansions at silver-producing base metals mines."
Jiangxi Copper, one of the largest copper producers in China, was also among the biggest refined silver producers with 14.8 million ounces of refined silver in 2010. The country's total refined silver output in 2010 was estimated at 194.4 million ounces.
CPM forecast that Jiangxi could produce 15.6 million ounces of silver in 2011. The precious metals consultants estimated Jiangxi has about 341.8 million ounces of silver in proven reserves.
China could also see more silver producing projects come online in the next two to three years, CPM predicted. Minco's Fuwan mine is a primary silver mine that would have a production capacity of 5.5 million ounces annually.
Continental Minerals' Xietongmen mine could come onstream in 2012 and yield about 1.7 million ounces of silver production annually with 23.7 million ounces of silver reserves.
"Chinese industrial production expanded at a robust pace in 2010," said CPM. "In 2010 China's fabrication demand for silver is estimated to have risen by 10.3% to 153.3 million ounces.
CPM predicts Chinese silver fabrication demand will rise 15.6% to 177.2 million ounces this year.
Despite silver price increases, Chinese consumer demand for jewelry and silverware has been strong, CPM noted. "Silver jewelry demand remained steady because it is comparatively more affordable than gold or platinum jewelry."
"In addition many Chinese consumers are said to prefer the white color of silver jewelry to the yellow color of gold."
CPM estimated 2010 consumption of silver jewelry and silverware was 33.2 million ounces. In 2011, silver jewelry and silverware consumption is forecast to rise 9.6% to 36.4 million ounces.
In their analysis, CPM noted silver use in electronics and electrical appliances account for more than a third of China's total silver use.
"At present China has world-class manufacturing hubs which produce many of the silver-containing electronic components used globally," said CPM. "Chinese manufacturers have been importing silver materials from overseas in order to meet the high level of technical specifications required in certain high-technology applications."
Silver use in electronics in China is estimated to have risen to 59.4 million ounces, CPM said. "In 2011 this is expected to grow 4.9% year-on-year to 63.4 million ounces."
Consumption of silver by China's solar panel manufacturing sector is estimated to have reached 15.4 million ounces in 2010, nearly double that of 2009.
"Chinese solar panel production is expected to continue to grow strongly on expectations of increased domestic and international demand," CPM noted. "A tremendous amount of solar manufacturing capacity is expected to come onstream in China in the next couple of years."
Demand for silver from Chinese fabciration of solar panels is expected to grow further to 28.9 million ounces this year, up 88% year-on-year.
China is also a major global producer and consumer of silver-based brazing alloys. It has some of the world's largest manufacturing facilities for home electronics and electrical appliances, which utilize various type of silver-based solder.
Silver use in brazing alloys and solder is estimated at 30.5 million ounces in 2010. A further demand increase to 33.1 million ounces is forecast for this year, according to CPM.
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