隨心隨影----禪心一點滴

禪心....一點滴....

Peter Schiff - Relentless Rise in Gold to Continue

With gold consolidating recent gains, today King World News interviewed Peter Schiff, CEO of Europacific Capital, to get his take on where things stand.  When asked about the run in gold Schiff responded, “Well it’s going to continue, gold is going to go higher because people want refuge.  In fact the other safe havens in the currency world, like the Swiss Franc or the Yen, the central banks there are trying to undermine their currencies.

除黄金外的避险货币，如瑞郎和日元，对应的央行狂印且干预市场，结果是为渊驱鱼，黄金只好涨得更快。

I mean the Swiss are actually thinking about pegging their currency to the euro.  One of the reasons people were buying the Swiss Franc was to get out of the euro.  Now they are threatening to turn the Swiss Franc into the euro.  So what’s the one asset that central banks can’t print?  That’s gold and so gold is the last man standing and everybody is going to be piling into it.”

When asked about the relentless rise in gold Schiff replied, “Look at what’s going on, governments have interest rates at zero, the Fed just said they are going to keep interest rates there for at least two years.  That’s basically QE3 because they are going to have to buy a lot of bonds to keep interest rates that low.  So what else is gold going to do?  

零 利率到2013年中，这就是QE3.因为如果财政部大把赤字而发债又没人买的话，国债收益率会狂涨，而fed已经承诺低利率至少2年，绝不会坐视不理。毕 竟国债收益率才是真正的利率，尤其在商业银行不愿大量放贷给中小企业和个人的时候。这个等于说，未来2年，财政的缺口，Ben都可以补上。注意，这是没有 数量限制，甚至没有最长时间限制的QE。

PS. 美国财政赤字远超过贸易赤字，所以指望中日中东能足够买单，即使他们真是蠢猪，这个想法也是幼稚的。

If there is no yield on currencies, if they are printing them like they are going out of style, if governments are trying to keep economies inflated and they have all of this debt, how are they going to get rid of the debt?  They are going to inflate it away.  If they are not going to default and they are not going to cut government spending, what’s left?  Inflation, print money.  

So it’s becoming obvious to more and more people and when the government repudiates its debt through inflation, when you hear they (governments) are inflating their way out of debt, well, yes they are inflating their way out of debt, but they are also inflating their creditors out of their assets.  

When the government gets rid of its debt through inflation, it wipes out people’s assets that are based in that currency, people’s savings.  So if you don’t want to get your assets inflated away, you buy gold, that’s the refuge....

“Gold will be overbought for years, I mean it will have pullbacks, but most of the time it will just be going higher and you are going to have to buy it.  That’s the wall of worry.  I talk to people all of the time who say, ‘I can’t buy gold because it’s high.’  Who says it’s high?  Maybe it’s lower than it was based on how many dollars and euros and RMB are out in circulation now.  

Gold is a measurement of the value of money.  So the higher the price of gold, all it’s telling you is that money as wealth has lost value.  If money keeps losing value, then gold has to keep going higher.  Gold only has one way to go and that is higher because the only way that you are going to stop the price of gold from rising would be to do what Paul Volker did in 1980.  We need to get a huge increase in interest rates, where interest rates are way ahead of the real rate of inflation.  

But the problem is you can’t do that without completely destroying the phony US economy, so you’ve got to be willing to do that.  To break the run in gold, you have to be willing to collapse the economy, to bankrupt the US government, to crash the housing market, to bankrupt the banks.  You have to be willing to take a recession or depression, one that’s much worse than the one in 2008/2009 time frame.  I just don’t see any political will to do that.  As I said, they are going to keep on printing so it’s just a one way trip for gold.”

让 黄金走熊的办法只有一个，就是80年代初沃尔克的那招，高利率，远高过通胀率的利率。可这次不行。如果这次玩高利率，金子没打下来，经济就先崩溃了，政府 破产，楼市崩盘，银行倒闭，这些在高利率面前一个也逃不掉。所以，我看不到有任何政治意愿会去搞高利率。这次的黄金牛市，是单程票。(Jim Sinclair和James Turk 都认为，这次的牛市终点，绝非80年的尖顶，而是金本位，也许是浮动的，也许还是固定的，也许是部分的，不管如何，将来人们惦记的，是各国货币单位值多少 克黄金，而不是相反)

When asked about silver specifically Schiff stated, “I think silver is a good buy.  Silver has kind of been restrained a little bit, but now as gold is rising and silver is getting pretty cheap on a ratio basis, silver is a good buy here.” 

相对于黄金，白银更便宜。

白銀將爆發在沉默之中

http://gold.cnfol.com/110819/171,1711,10521208,00.shtml

持有金銀實物,就唔怕市場波動啦

世元金行分析師：趙晉
在即將過去的夏天，什麼投資最熱？相信唯一的答案就是黃金，進入七月黃金摧枯拉朽搬連續衝破千五，千六，千七和千八大關，其上升勢頭是許多的大機構和分析師所難以預料的，幾乎所有全球大型金融機構都​​多次上調黃金價格預期時，市場也出現了前所未有的混亂，投資者不知道是追多還是應該開始放空。縱觀現階段黃金走勢，能用四個字概況---暗藏風險。如果仔細觀察四月和五月的白銀走勢，大家一定能夠發現與近期黃金走勢有著驚人的相似。黃金極有可能出現衝高形成雙頂後，大幅回調。
而在今年夏天相對走勢較弱的白銀已經築底成功，突破前期的阻力線，近期有可能持續出現新一輪爆發。相對於黃金，白​​銀的規避風險和資產保值的特性較弱，而工業屬性以及商品屬性較強。同時因為白銀礦產儲量大，開採成本低，而其價格也相對其他貴金屬較低，而且長期的價格也較為穩定，所以人們常常議論白銀是否屬於通常貴金屬。就在人們還在質疑白銀是否是貴金屬的時候，白銀已經開始又一次爆發。
而從白銀和黃金對比的儲量來看，白銀也應該再一次綻放。 1940年，全球黃金儲量是2.83萬噸，白銀儲量是28.34萬噸，當時黃金和白銀儲量之比為1:10。 .而最新的美國地質調查局公佈的數據顯示，世界白銀儲量現在為40萬噸，黃金現儲量為20.3萬噸，黃金白銀儲量之比已經從1:10降到了不足1:2。這與白銀較強的商品屬性是分不開的，白銀除了通常被用來做首飾之外還是最佳的導體，其導電性遠遠強於其他金屬，所以常常被用在高端的通信和工業上，如新能源，手機，液晶，電池，攝影工業和軍工產業等等。根據報導，在2009年，白銀工業用量佔了白銀產量的40%，首飾佔了18%，攝影工業佔了9%，而白銀投資只占到了15%。

時至今日，新能源將會成為各國爭先研究和使用的熱點，白銀作為高新能源設備必需的原材料，其需求量將會大幅度的激增，從而推動白銀價格的暴漲。美國芝加哥HIGHTOWER金融投資公司主席David Hightower預測：由於暴增的全球需求量，白銀2011年內將能夠漲到50美元/盎司。而且黃金價格漲到一個相對高的價格，投資者或許改變貴金屬投資方向，去投資更便宜的白銀。同時投資者將會增加投資量去投資白銀以對抗高漲的通貨膨脹率。就那現在的產量來說，白銀的產量遠遠不足以滿足其需求量。
雖然近期世界經濟處於二次探底的威脅，但是各國政府加大軍費開支促使白銀的需求量增加。中國航母的下水以及一些先進武器的研發成功，必然引起一系列世界軍事實力的競爭。同時中國政府加大力度限制白銀出口，而鼓勵大量進口白銀，也能看出白銀在中國經濟戰略發展的重要性。作為世界第一強國的美國也正在大力扶持高新能源和高新產業的建設，同時奧巴馬將加大基礎建設的投入和製造業的投入，如此來刺激經濟復甦，所以未來白銀的工業使用量將會暴增，所以一定程度上會大跌刺激白銀需求量的繼續上升。
Richcomm Global Services首席分析師Pradeep Unni表示：“避險買盤明顯推動貴金屬價格的上揚，在現階段全球政治局勢和經濟形勢還存在許多的不確定性，因此避險需求或將一直旺盛，投資需求或將激增並且推高貴金屬至歷史的新高位。而且由於日本核洩露引起的能源危機將會刺激全球高新能源的研發和應用，而太陽能行業電池和其他高新能源對白銀的材料需求也必將持續暴漲，所以白銀將持續處於供不應求的情況。”
白銀此次的爆發才剛剛開始，是投資者入市，投資操作白銀絕佳時期。儘管如此，白銀價格波動是貴金屬中除了鈀金之外最大的。劇烈波動是一把雙刃劍，可以帶來豐厚的利潤，同時也能帶來巨大的風險。投資者應該做到根據自身實際情況，合理分配投資方向，嚴格控制投資風險，不要一味地跟風炒作，如此投資者將會在白銀這個魅力市場，穩定獲取最大的利益。