2013年12月4日星期三

黃金兩個數浪方式

許沂光 2013年12月4日





現貨金價在2013年11月25日低見1226美元後回升。以循環周期分析,25周低位可能在12月尾出現,對金價有支持作用。

波浪理論分析,有兩個數浪方法:第一,金價以(IV)浪內C浪的5浪向下調整,跌勢已近尾聲,見附圖(一)。

第二,(IV)浪調整已在1180美元完結,最近1226美元的低位,可能是?浪的底部,見附圖(二)。

總結:黃金中長期調整已近尾聲,是否已在1226美元見底,有待進一步確觀察。

免責聲明:以上分析,只供參考,投資買賣,必須審慎。

黃金?法幣?比特幣?誰是完美的貨幣?

 朱冠華

比特幣可說是最近引發世界注意的寵兒。

比特幣誕生於2008年,由一個至今神秘的「中本聰」 的網友開發。比特幣是一種由開源的P2P軟件產生的虛擬貨幣。基於一套密碼編碼、通過複雜算法產生,任何人都可以下載並運行比特幣客戶端而參與製造比特幣,利用電子簽名的方式來實現流通。它的主要特點包括:去中心化、全球流通、具有專屬所有權。

除比特幣外,至少還有30種電子貨幣,如:萊特幣、質數幣、比奧幣、瑞波幣、招財幣、美卡幣等等。

比特幣是一種虛擬貨幣,它具有固定發行量、特有密碼組成、無國界地域、不用納稅等特性。它是一種黃金的模仿貨幣,並引入黃金開採的概念,通過計算機運算工具「挖礦」,由於採用密碼學的設計,它有了貨幣的概念:不可複製,僅供持有者使用。比特幣總量只有2100萬個。比特幣存在於數字空間中,隱藏在特定算法裡,需要投入大量人力物力才能挖出來。

截筆時,比特幣收盤價是1221美元,盤中一度創下1242美元的歷史新高,而同時黃金價格為一盎司1241美元,比特幣價格首度超過黃金。

2008年,比特幣誕生時1美元可以兌換1300比特幣,而現在卻需要1221美元才可以兌換1比特幣。漲幅超過15877倍。而今年以來漲幅超過90倍,30天漲4倍。

從歷史上來看,這種漲幅是史無前例的。若在其他資產上,幾乎可以肯定超級大泡沫,何況比特幣本身就是虛擬的,即使你把兌換成比特硬幣,該硬幣的價值也不高,如何能比黃金價格?

不過,這裡我不討論比特幣是否泡沫,我只說,對比黃金和法幣,比特幣這種虛擬貨幣是否更適合擔任貨幣的角色呢?

貨幣必須滿足三大條件:交易價值、儲蓄價值和價值衡量。

政府和銀行集團發行的法幣,除獲得政府用法律背書而有交易價值外,其餘皆無。幾十年來物價不斷上漲,背後原因就是政府和銀行集團廢除金本位,濫發貨幣所導致。比特幣這類虛擬貨幣是對貨幣被政府和銀行集團壟斷,長年累積的惡果所對應產生的。

要說批評比特幣最差的理由,就是指比特幣是虛擬貨幣,完全不可靠。這是只許官兵放火,不許百姓點燈的悖論。政府的法幣超過90%不也是虛擬貨幣嗎?不過只是在銀行帳戶上的一個電子數字。而政府的紙幣在物理上,價值也比不上比特硬幣。所以,在物理上,法幣和比特幣是差不了多少,都不及黃金的價值來得硬。

比特幣和法幣的分別,在於一個有政府用法律規定來背書;一個則以控制發行量來維持市場對它的信心,但是流通量目前仍​​很低。

從概念上來看,比特幣其實比法幣更適合當貨幣。它將貨幣「去中央化、去國家化」,更能​​防止貨幣壟斷所造成的腐敗現象。這種貨幣壟斷造成的腐敗在美元本位下已經全球化,結果就是貧富懸殊拉大,99%人民生活更加艱難,經濟危機時不時發生。
但是,比特幣在推行的技術上出現極大的失誤。就是不清楚現實​​的各種技術上問題和掣肘,結果使得比特幣的發展偏離正軌。因為比特幣推出之初,盤子實在太小。即使現在也不到300億美元,人為的操作空間非常大,所以其價格經常出現暴漲暴跌。
比特幣算法本身的設計,每四年產生的比特幣數值會減半的算法,2013年-2016年平均每十分鐘產生25個比特幣,2017年開始,這個數會降低到12.5個。隨著挖礦難度增大,加上比特幣價格的飆漲,讓許多「礦工」直接改行炒比特幣,等待升值後再拋出,瘋狂的炒作只會摧毀比特幣的未來。

在法幣稱霸天下四十多年來,要改革這掠奪性的貨幣體系,非一朝一夕的事。善戰者,先立於不敗之地。所以比特幣應該如同黃金那樣,先穩住自己的儲蓄價值和價值衡量功能,再謀交易流通功能。若顛倒次序,結果就是糧草不繼,縱使有百萬大軍都免不了被全殲的命運。

黃金是政府和銀行集團無法消滅,只能暫時囚禁的貨幣之王。而法幣體系的先天設計問題,最後必然有崩潰的一天。屆時,黃金自然可以再度登基貨幣王位。但是比特幣沒有黃金那樣的硬價值,它和法幣一樣都是虛擬的。

貨幣要穩定,價格就不能上竄下跳,至少不能太激烈。貨幣發行必須有錨來穩定,否則就不能發揮價值衡量功能,如此儲蓄功能和交易功能更不能行了。黃金不需要錨,因為它本身就是錨。紙幣發行之初以黃金為錨,後1971年廢除,改以政府信用(稅收和財政)來支持。只是信用這錨是紙做的,根本無法穩定價值,所以法幣才會出現年年貶值的現象。

比特幣和法幣一樣都是虛擬的,要區別它和法幣,不能只靠控制數量,這​​是因為它目前還沒有政府的權威。所以開始之初必須建立一個不兌現的錨。它可以用黃金作錨,或者以一系列商品作錨。讓其價格固定根據這些商品浮動,禁止讓比特幣出現如股票那樣的炒作買賣現象。

在法幣稱霸的情況下,要求黃金或比特幣這類虛擬貨幣迅速流通,是欲速則不達。只能穩住自己的價值衡量和儲蓄功能,以待時變。但是比特幣卻糧草未發,三軍先行,其失敗是可預期的。

因為比特幣不同於黃金,政府和銀行集團只能暫時囚禁黃金,但是無法消滅,對付比特幣則簡單多了。因為比特幣本質上是虛擬的,只要政府發出幾句否定比特幣的官話,或者發出禁止市場使用比特幣的法律,或者對其電子交易平台進行駭客攻擊,就足以造成比特幣價格暴跌。因為比特幣本身缺乏貴金屬支撐,不具保值性,是缺乏物理存在虛擬貨幣,又沒有政府背書,隨時可以跌到一文不值。

因為比特幣錯誤的戰略,使得它最初具備的金融創新特色將逐漸消失,相反成為一個純粹「轉錢」的炒作工具。而手持比特幣的人也只會用比特幣換美元,而不是買商品,其欲進化為未來貨幣的希望也正漸趨黯淡。

Bitcoin 隨時爆煲




一名工程師較早前棄掉一個已失效的硬碟,內存7,500個一種叫比特幣(Bitcoin)的虛擬貨幣,以該貨幣上周六升穿1,200美元計算,該工程師痛失逾900萬美元;事件看似瘋狂,但財政司司長曾俊華及「末日博士」麥嘉華均警告,比特幣沒有實物支持,呼籲投資者收取時應加倍小心。

一個比特幣於今年1月初僅值13美元,現時已達1,230美元,一年內升值約100倍,而金價上周五收市僅約每盎司1,250美元。

財政司司長曾俊華昨天於網誌以「虛虛實實」為題撰文,透露比特幣已引起世界各地政府、金融及資訊科技界關注,又指其價格急速上漲,主要基於投機因素,並沒有實體經濟、實物及發行人支持,不保證可以兌換成實體經濟貨幣或商品。

他又指出,雖然比特幣的交易紀錄公開,但無人可知帳戶擁有人的真實身份,而一人可開設多個戶口,不排除有人利用自己的帳戶自買自賣抬高價格,又認為比特幣日後的發展是泡沬爆破,或走出虛擬國度,現階段仍無人可肯定。

至於有「末日博士」之稱的麥嘉華接受CNBC訪問時稱,比特幣價格飆升,反映市

 場資金過多,直言不清楚比特幣價值多少,但肯定顯示大量流動性正湧入市場一個

又一個投機性區域。



附加 : 過去12個月比特幣兌美元201212 - 201312月)



過去12個月道瓊斯指數201212 - 201312月)


過去12個月恆生指數201212 - 201312月)



過去12個月黃金兌美元201212 - 201312月)


http://www.metrohk.com.hk/?cmd=detail&id=224234

珠寶行業內幕:K金搭扣按足金價格出售

 溫州商報 

商報訊(記者楊昊潑通訊員孫婭)近日,正在籌備結婚的永嘉消費者陳女士在某珠寶店購買了一款“千足金”項鏈,後來發現項鏈搭扣並非千足金。工商部門調查後發現,陳女士的投訴並非個例,非千足金首飾配件按千足金賣,竟是行業“慣例”。

陳女士表示,自己購置的這條黃金項鏈重達23.9克,按照310元/克的價格,共計7400元。銷售人員告訴她,這是一款純正的千足金首飾,黃金型號是999。 “拿回家後,一位朋友告訴我上當了,項鏈上面標有"Au900"的字樣,並非千足金。”陳女士要求退貨,被商家拒絕,就向永嘉橋頭工商分局投訴。

橋頭工商分局執法人員檢查完項鏈後,證實陳女士所說確實不假。對此,店家解釋說,項鏈上的“Au900”字樣是指項鏈搭扣,並不是指整條項鏈。 “由於千足金質地太軟,不適宜做搭扣,因此需要"AU900"這類K金來做搭扣,但是其和足金項鏈不會分開稱重標價,這是珠寶行業的慣例。”商家表示。

工商執法人員認為,Au900是指黃金純度不低於90%,因此並不能稱為足金或千足金,由於商家沒有提前告知消費者這一事實,在售價中,將其按足金價格來賣,顯然侵犯了消費者的知情權。最後,在橋頭工商分局工作人員的調解下,店家同意給予退貨處理。

韓國將於明年3月 開放實物黃金交易市場

據外媒週二(12月3日)報道,韓國已決定於2014年3月正式開放實物黃金交易市場,以改善全球交易的透明度,同時產生新的金融機會。
由於韓國政府意識到居民手中的實物金持有量幾乎是韓國央行(BOK)的7倍,同時為了逃避進口關稅和增值稅,大多數實物黃金交易都是在黑市進行,所以此舉也是為了令實物黃金交易更加規範化。
另外,為了降低實物黃金交易市場對散戶投資者的門檻,韓國交易所(KRX)將設立一個類似主要證券交易所以及二級KOSDAQ市場的交易系統。
整個交易時間段設在09:03am-03:00pm,單位交易量為1克,僅限於公斤條。
與此同時,韓國交易所還計劃提供與其他國際指標接軌的實時黃金市場價格。試運行將於明年2月10日開始,官方的正式開放時間是明年3月24日。

'China's rich always ask how to keep wealth in the family', reveals Ariane de Rothschild










Ariane de Rothschild, who ranks second only to her husband, Benjamin, at the legendary financial dynasty's Edmond de Rothschild Group, says rich Chinese friends and clients ask her the same question whenever she visits the mainland: how can you keep your family wealth for generation after generation? And how has the Rothschild family done that for centuries?
Her husband is a sixth-generation scion of a dynasty that started more than two centuries ago.

The group's vice-chairwoman, who was born in El Salvador, educated in the United States and lives in Geneva, told the South China Morning Post that the question raised by many rich Chinese families, which had gathered their wealth rapidly in the past two to three decades, or even in just a few years as part of the national economic growth story, reflected the urgent need for those families to get to the real meaning of being wealthy.

"China is already in that kind of debate about their roles [of rich families] in the society, their contributions to the society and so on, besides just making money," Rothschild said. "Now it's also about how they can change the country or change the world.

"A lot of Chinese families that I see [ask me] the first question 'how do you do it?' as now we pass on [the wealth of the Rothschild family] to the seventh generation."

In recent years, family wealth and succession have been a hot topic on the mainland, already the world's second-biggest economy after the United States.

This year, a new Chinese phrase, tu hao - often translated as "nouveau riche" or "new money" - suddenly became extremely popular on the internet, especially in various debates about how rich Chinese families became rich so quickly and how they should manage their wealth and contribute more to society, rather than just enjoying their own luxury lifestyles.

Rothschild said she believed there was definitely something her group could do to help answer such questions, and that was why she had decided to focus more on the Greater China region - the mainland, Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan - where many rich families faced similar questions about family business successions.

"Now the second generation [of rich Chinese families] is very well educated in the US or the UK and obviously this generation will challenge the previous one [in the way they do business and what they are interested in doing] and the pressure will be even greater for the third generation," she said.

"The first generation is always struggling to make money, then the second generation's job is to keep the money and the third generation may have very different objectives," she added, noting that many Chinese clients turned to the Rothschild group because they felt at a loss about how to ensure that their second or third generations kept the family wealth.
The group has about 70 professionals in its Hong Kong office, which serves as a "Greater China hub" for its clients in the region.

The top challenge for Rothschild in Hong Kong, as elsewhere in the world, where it competes with other private banks including two Swiss firms with long histories of their own - UBS and Credit Suisse - is more than just seeking high returns on investments, but rather finding enough talent to take care of clients.

"We want to hire as many as we can, which is a big challenge," Rothschild said. "In Hong Kong, it's a very difficult market to attract talents.
"Besides salary and bonus, there's also corporate identity that people do consider.

"I don't have an upper limit [in terms of hiring] as the more we grow, the happier we will be to hire. You can see there is still room [in the office]."
The group's Hong Kong office occupies the top - 50th floor - of Exchange Square One in the heart of Central.

Rothschild said that because Rothschild was not a publicly traded company, unlike big American banks, the family business structure gave her more flexibility in terms of its headcount and budget for hiring.
Rothschild, who worked with her husband to reorganise the group's resources in the wake of the 2008 global financial crisis, said she recently set a target of increasing the assets under group management by 40 billion Swiss francs (HK$342 billion) by 2016. It currently has more than 160 billion francs in assets under management.

In Asia, China, Singapore and Japan were the three key markets which Rothschild was keen to take on, she said.

More Chinese clients had recently shown growing interest in setting up their own foundations and charity organisations, rather than just seeking high returns on their investments, Rothschild said, adding that she believed that was a good sign of the growing social responsibility shared by more rich Chinese families.
 
"After all, you need to know the meaning beyond money. Money for money's sake is not enough," she said, with that principle also reflected in the investment style of Rothschild, which is fully owned by the family, which was different from that of "big banks".

"People say you are so conservative [about investing] but my rule is to fight with those short-term contemplations to earn some quick and easy money," she said. "My objective is to keep my family business in an ethical and sustainable manner. "If you are a publicly traded company, I know there are a lot of pressures on returns, but I can take a conscious decision to say no."



http://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/1370541/ariane-de-rothschild-meaning-life-beyond-money

美國法院批准底特律申請破產,允許削減養老金

養老金都不保,

正所謂,出得黎行,遲早要還,





本週二,聯邦破產法官Steven Rhodes宣布,底特律市符合聯邦破產法第9章的相關規定,符合立即申請破產保護的資格。法官Rhodes指出,底特律市的財務數據準確無誤,該城市欠債高達180多億美元,無力償還債務。這是美國史上規模最大的城市申請破產保護的案件。

此結果大體在意料之中。此前,底特律工會組織和養老基金會的代表在法庭上反對底特律申請破產保護,以保護前底特律政府員工得到應有的款項。

法官Rhodes宣布,底特律有權削減養老金,法庭不會將養老金與其它債務區別對待。然而,“有權削減養老金”不意味著法庭會批准大幅度的削減。

下一步,底特律將遞交計劃,重新調整其180多億美元的債務,包括削減養老金和減少對市政債券持有者的償付。此前,Kevyn Orr被任命為底特律市應急財務經理。據彭博社報導,Orr提議:削減35億美元養老金債務,以及至少14億美元無擔保市政債務,將這些債務替換為20億美元的票據,底特律向債權人每年支付1.5%的利息。

法律專家Jim Spiotto在接受彭博電話採訪時說,底特律必須思考應採取何種行動來吸引企業入駐底特律。如果不能解決系統性問題,未來底特律只能重蹈覆轍。

底特律開啟了大型城市宣告破產的先河,未來可能有更多掙扎於債務的城市選擇破產保護。