羅耕:武功將廢

QE究竟怎有實效？官方說法是Portfolio BalanceEffect，大概是指央行改變閣下的portfolio。說白一點，就是將長短利率以至債、非債息統統壓至近零，逼你炒股炒樓。

事實上逼不逼到呢？以美債孳息(取五年的中間檔期)與美股的反比關系看來，似得。不計相關系數，觀圖都估到過去三年半來，壓低債息美股上升，盡管兩者不時背馳。

然而，隔夜息亦頂多壓至0到1/4厘，五年期息目前已低見半厘，還可再壓得多少？將話反過來說，就是目前已千四點的標普五百指數，還可再因QE壓息而升得多少？

當整條利率曲線都壓至近零後，QE也已因陷入Portfolio BalanceTrap而廢武功。武功既廢，Q不QE又有何分別？

Leeb - Bernanke, Europe, China & The Surge In Gold & Silver

kingworldnews

Today acclaimed money manager Stephen Leeb told King World News that he expects the Fed will in fact ease at their September meeting.  Leeb also discussed the strong move in gold and silver, but first, here is what Leeb had to say regarding Bernanke and the Fed: “I think what investors clearly wanted to hear from Bernanke is that he’s ready to ease on monetary policy, and that he’s ready to open the floodgates again.  That, combined with a much more docile Merkel, and news today that China’s copper demand might be a lot stronger than people think, and you really had a trifecta here today.”

Stephen Leeb continues:

“The Bernanke story is right in front of us.  What he said, and he made this crystal clear, is the economy is very disappointing to him.  He also used a very strong adjective to describe unemployment, and he stated he’s going to do whatever he can about it.  The language he used, the adjectives he used, suggested he’s ready to do something, Eric.

That something is pumping up and putting more money into the system.  So I think it’s clear, from Bernanke’s statement, that he probably will ease in September....

“The politics of this cuts both ways here, Eric, in the sense that if he were not to ease in September, and then start getting crummy economic data thereafter, he would be forced to ease maybe on the eve of the election.  Unless we get unbelievably good economic data, I think he will ease in September.

Obviously if he doesn’t, then there will be a disappointment in the gold market.  But if you look at both gold and silver today, they have surged higher on this news.  I still believe that, regardless, Germany is going to ease, and I think China is starting to grow, and I think the odds are extremely high that the Fed will ease.

Let’s face it, the guy’s (Bernanke’s) job is on the line.  So I think there is a lot of pressure on him to ease, especially given what he said today.  He’s saying the onus is on the economy to show its growing much stronger than it has been, or else he will ease in September.

We will see an employment report, and if it’s a barnburner where 300,000 to 400,000 jobs are created, he probably won’t ease.  But if it’s anything like the reports we have seen recently, yes, he’s going to ease.”

Leeb also added:  “At the same time Europe is ready to buy bonds, otherwise known as quantitative easing.  China has also been easing, but it isn’t apparent this has had any real effect.  The number of bulls on China has dropped to nearly zero recently, and then all of the sudden a story appears this morning that China’s copper demand is a lot more robust than anyone thought.

One thing you can count on China to do is not let the world know how things are going.  You put this together and you have a very strong and powerful trifecta.  Far more than 50% of the world’s economy are the three blocs of China, Europe and the US, and the way this is shaping up is so bullish for gold.

China’s has the willingness, and almost desperate desire to acquire gold.  They know they are going to need a hard currency.  And Bernanke’s remarks this morning, that’s going to push them even harder to do something about this.”

Leeb had this to say regarding silver: “Silver is also a monetary metal and people who can’t afford to go out and buy an ounce of gold can go out and buy silver coins.  So silver should continue to be a strong performer going forward as well.”

如果中美爆發貿易戰

Original Source

美國耶魯大學高級研究員 斯蒂芬•羅奇 為英國《金融時報》撰稿 

如果米特•羅姆尼(Mitt Romney)當選並恪守其競選承諾的話，他將在2013年1月20日就任美國總統之後的數小時內，簽署自己的首個總統令，宣佈中國為匯率操縱國。根據 1988年通過的《綜合貿易與競爭法》(Omnibus Trade and Competitiveness Act)，羅姆尼的舉動將會立即引發中美兩國官員的直接會談，但談判將會陷入僵局，雙方都將召開新聞發布會指責對方。

2月初，羅姆尼會在自己的首個《國情咨文》(State of the Union)演講中表示：“我們受夠了，現在是時候讓中國服從我們的規定了。”該國情咨文獲得國會高調批準。在一周內，美國參眾兩院兩黨議員以壓倒性的多 數票通過《2013年捍衛美國貿易法案》(Defend America Trade Act of 2013)。於是這部以2005年首次提出的對中國操縱匯率行為徵收反補貼關稅的“矯正措施”為模板的法案，在2013年2月18日“總統日”這天被簽署 為法律。中國當即被認定違反了這部新法律。

屆時中美兩國之間的談判將呈現出新的緊張局勢，但兩國新任領導人都不願妥協，於是談判失敗。根據《2013年捍衛美國貿易法案》的規定，華盛頓立即悍然對所有中國出口到美國的商品加收20%的關稅。

隨著中國各地的工廠紛紛倒閉，北京方面宣佈美國此舉等同於發動“經濟戰”，並向世界貿易組織(WTO)投訴。在3月全國人大會議閉幕後就任中國新總理的李克強宣佈，中國沒有耐心忍受世貿組織的爭端解決機制——這通常意味著要耗費2-5年才能解決爭端。

中 國商務部於是宣佈對所有來自美國的商品徵收20%的報復性關稅。對於渴望經濟增長的美國來說，這一招直接擊中了要害。由於2011年美國對中國的外貿出口 額達到了1040億美元，中國已經成為美國第三大、且增長最快的出口市場。更糟糕的是，依賴於中國的沃爾瑪(Walmart)宣佈旗下商品價格平均上浮 5%。其他零售商紛紛效仿。有關美國經濟滯漲的言論甚囂塵上，艱難度日的美國消費者只能更加節省了。

美國金融市場應聲暴跌。企業利潤率、經濟增長和通脹都承受著壓力，對股市構成了三重打擊。由於意識到美聯儲(Fed)的行動嚴重落後於形勢，債券市 場也緊張不已。這不無道理。在2013年6月例行政策會議後，美聯儲老調重彈，重申將把基準政策利率維持在接近零的水平，直至2015年。美聯儲甚至還暗 示，可能會考慮新一輪量化寬松政策(QE4)。美國十年期國債收益率再次攀升至4%以上，而美國股市進一步大幅下挫。

華盛頓方面感受到了來自金融市場的壓力，他們要進一步升級對中國的貿易製裁措施。羅姆尼要求正在過“獨立日”假期的國會議員們返回華盛頓召開特別會議。國會一致通過《2013年捍衛美國貿易法案》修正案，將針對中國的反補貼關稅再提高10%。
此時憤怒的中國也拿出了自己的殺手鐧。在美國財政部於2013年8月舉行的國債拍賣會上，身為美國國債最大外國買家的中國難覓蹤影。美國長期利率應聲飆漲，十年期美國國債收益率在幾周內升破7%。

美元匯率暴跌。美國股市一瀉千里。

於是乎，這種避險資產所謂的至尊特權煙消雲散。在新聞發布會上，在被問及中國為何願意採取令自己持有的逾2萬億美元美國國債及其他美元資產縮水的舉 措時，即將退休的中國央行行長周小川回答道：“這與經風險調整後的投資組合回報率的問題無關。我們是在捍衛中國人民的利益，抵禦經濟戰爭行為。”

到了2013年的秋天，美國經濟再次陷入嚴重衰退已經毋庸置疑。美國針對中國的貿易製裁產生了反作用。陷入困境的美國工人付出的代價最為沉重，失業率再次飆升至10%以上。一個可怕的政策失誤證實，對於儲蓄不足的美國經濟而言，多邊貿易失衡問題不存在雙邊解決方案。

在中國，經濟增速跌破可怕的6%關口。由於經濟仍然不平衡和不穩定，新的領導層推出了新一輪的投資刺激政策。全球經濟再次陷入衰退，與此相比2008年至2009年間的“大危機”(Great Crisis)顯得有些小兒科。全球化本身也危在旦夕。

歷史告誡我們，永遠別說不可能。我們只需看看美國參議員里德•司莫特(Reed Smoot)和眾議員威利斯•郝利(Willis Hawley)留下的爛攤子就會明白。這兩人推動出台了臭名昭著的《1930年關稅法》(Tariff Act of 1930)——這是美國最嚴重的經濟政策失誤。噩夢可以（而且曾經）變成現實。

本文作者是美國耶魯大學(Yale University)高級研究員，曾擔任摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)亞洲區主席。

2010 High Relief Kangaroo

These Australian Silver Kangaroo Coins feature two Kangaroos “boxing” in the outback, designed by Dr. Stuart Devlin.


HD Photo Link:

紅大袋鼠, 打鬥目的不是為爭地盤,而是是為爭奪配偶

Silver Breaks its Downtrend

For nearly the last year and a half, silver has been in a sustained downtrend in price although it has managed to find a floor of support near the $26 level. This week it has finally broken that downtrend. If this metal is going to begin a sustained rally, any setback in price should find buying emerge near the downsloping blue line shown on the chart. Failure to hold this level and particularly now the $30 level, will see the metal fall back into that triangle formation with support then coming in down closer to $28.

Note that the metal is now trading above the 50 week moving average while both shorter term moving averages are now moving higher. The trend is up.

Original Source