存款一直少 恐懼感倍增

金 鐘獎紀錄片攝影師沈瑞源在1998年時，月收入約15萬元、買房還能開百萬進口車，月花5萬元、生活過得挺豐裕；九二一大地震後轉拍非商業電影，現收入銳 減至5萬元，開銷卻增至6萬元，在高物價時代不斷縮衣節食，竟還得吃老本，他坦言：「看到存款簿數字沒增反減、會有恐懼感。」

公視紀錄片《銀髮熟年──孫越和他的老朋友們》獲金鐘獎2008年綜合節目獎，擔任該片攝影師的沈瑞源表示，1998年前景氣比現在好，能接很多商業廣告和電影拍攝，常台灣大陸兩頭跑，當時1個月收入達15萬元，不但在北市買房，還買了百萬福斯房車。

水電瓦斯費貴1千


但 1999年九二一大地震改變了他的人生態度，他開始接較非商業性的短片和紀錄片，但月收入也銳減至只有5、6萬元。沈瑞源說：「十幾年前攝影師一天出班 3000元，現在還是差不多3000元。」薪水沒增、物價漲得很厲害，他說：「巷口水煎包從5元漲至10元，豆漿從10元漲至18元，油箱加滿要多 1000元，每月水電瓦斯超過3000元、比以前多1000元。」

盡量不讓女兒補習


為平衡開銷，沈瑞源的女兒念書盡量不補習、老婆少血拼，他減少外食，當年百萬房車現成十多年老爺車繼續開，用5、6年的手機也不換，連加油也找自助加油，他說：「每公升省2元幫助很大。」

盡量減少開銷，還是得動用存款，沈說：「看到存款簿數字沒有增加還減少，會有恐懼感。」記者王玉樹
沈瑞源 小檔案


★年齡：52歲
★家庭：已婚，育有1女
★職業：紀錄片導演兼攝影師
★收支變化：
．1998年：月入15萬元，月支出5萬元
．2012年：月入5~6萬元，月支出6萬元
資料來源：沈瑞源

The Next Industrial Revolution

Original Source

Large, centrally-directed systems are inherently fragile. Think of the human body; a spontaneous, unexpected blow to the head can kill an otherwise healthy creature; all the healthy cells and tissue in the legs, arms, torso and so forth killed through dependency on the brain’s functionality. Interdependent systems are only ever as strong as their weakest critical link, and very often a critical link can fail through nothing more than bad luck.
Yet the human body does not exist in isolation. Humans as a species are a decentralised network. Each individual may be in himself or herself a fragile, interdependent system, but the wider network of humanity is a robust independent system. One group of humans may die in an avalanche or drown at sea, but their death does not affect the survival of the wider population. The human genome has survived plagues, volcanoes, hurricanes, asteroid impacts and so on through its decentralisation.
In economics, such principles are also applicable. Modern, high-technology civilisation is very centralised and homogenised. Prices and availability are affected by events half way around the world; a war in the middle east, the closure of the Suez Canal or Strait of Hormuz, an earthquake in China, flooding in Thailand, or a tidal wave in Indonesia all have ramifications to global markets, simply because of the interconnectedness of globalisation. The computer I am typing this into is a complex mixture — the cumulative culmination of millions of hours of work, as well as resources and manufacturing processes across the globe. It incorporates tellurium, indium, cobalt, gallium, and manganese mined in Africa. Neodymium mined in China. Plastics forged out of Saudi Crude. Bauxite mined in Brazil. Memory manufactured in Korea, semiconductors forged in Germany, glass made in the United States. And gallons and gallons of oil to ship all the resources and components around the world, ’til they are finally assembled in China, and shipped once again around the world to the consumer. And that manufacturing process stands upon the shoulders of centuries of scientific research, and years of product development, testing, and marketing. It is a huge mesh of interdependent processes. And the disruption of any one of these processes can mean disruption for the system as a whole. The fragility of interconnection is the great hidden danger underlying our modern economic and technological paradigms.

And even if the risks of global trade disruptions do not materialise in the near-term, as the finite supply of oil dwindles in coming years, the costs of constantly shipping so much around and around the world may prove unsustainable.

It is my view that the reality of costlier oil is set over the coming years to spur a new industrial revolution — a very welcome side-effect of which will be increased social and industrial decentralisation. Looming on the horizon are technologies which can decentralise the means of production and the means of energy generation.
3D printers — machines that can assemble molecules into larger pre-designed objects are pioneering a whole new way of making things. This could well rewrite the rules of manufacturing in much the same way as the rise of personal computing discombobulated the traditional world of computing.

3D printers have existed in large-scale industry for years. But at a cost of $100,000 to $1m, few individuals could ever afford one. Fortunately, improved technology and lowered costs are making such machines more viable for home use. Industrial 3D printers now cost from just $15,000, and home versions for little more than $1,000. Obviously, there are still significant hurdles. 3D printing is still a relatively crude technology, so far incapable of producing complex finished goods. And molecular assembly still requires resources to run on — at least until the technology of molecular disassembly becomes viable, allowing for 3D printers to run on, for example, waste. But the potential for more and more individuals to gain the capacity to manufacture at home — thereby reducing dependency on oil and the global trade grid — is a huge incentive to further development. The next Apple or Microsoft could well be the company that develops and brings home-based 3D printing to the wider marketplace by making it simple and accessible and cheap.
Decentralised manufacturing goes hand-in-hand with decentralised energy generation, because manufacturing requires energy input. Microgrids are localised groupings of energy generation that can vary from city-size to individual-size. The latter is gradually becoming more and more economically viable as the costs of solar panels, wind turbines (etc) for energy generation, and lithium and graphene batteries (etc) for home energy storage fall, and efficiencies rise. Although generally connected to a larger national electricity grid, the connection can be disconnected, and a microgrid can function autonomously if the national grid were to fail (for example) as a result of natural disaster or war.
Having access to a robust and independent energy supply and home-manufacturing facilities would be very empowering for individuals and local communities and allow a higher degree of independence from governments and corporations. Home-based microgrids can allow the autonomous and decentralised powering and recharging of not just home appliances like cooking equipment, computers, 3D printers, lights, and food growing equipment, but also electric vehicles and mobile communications equipment. Home-based 3D printing can allow for autonomous and decentralised design and manufacturing of useful tools and equipment.
The choice that we face as individuals and organisations is whether or not we choose to continue to live with the costs and risks of the modern globalised mode of production, or whether we decide to invest in insulating ourselves from some of the dangers. The more individuals and organisations that invest in these technologies that allow us to create robust decentralised energy generation and production systems, the more costs should fall.
Decentralisation has allowed our species to survive and flourish through millions of years of turbulent and unpredictable history. I believe that decentralisation can allow our young civilisation to survive and flourish in the same manner.

收復年內大部分跌

石林

美國聯儲局開放式的量化寬鬆措施（QE3）給人予無限的想像空間，所引起的刺激效應至今未減，對金銀市尤為顯著。上周金價繼續推升至1787.5元（美元．下同），距今年的高位1790.6元僅相差3.1元，在上月15日金價仍報1589.8元，只比年內低位1526.8元高出63元。換言之，在過去一個月多一點的時間，金市光復年內大部分的跌幅，反應神速。

淨好倉量猛增逾五成

銀價上周亦曾推進至35.18元，與年內高位37.5元尚有2.32元之距。然而，亦與金市相似，在過去一個月多一點的時間，銀市同樣光復了年內大部分跌幅。若論升幅比較，銀價從上月15日低位27.5元回升至今，這段短短時間內最大彈升幅度高達27.92％，遠遠超過同期金市的12.63％升幅。

不過，單以上周表現而論，兩者升速似有所放緩。上周金市收報1773元，較前周僅微升0.14％；銀市收報34.52元，比前周更微跌0.46％，兩者或須稍歇息及整固。

歐洲及美國央行以至中國央行先後推出不同的經濟刺激措施，當然是推升最近金銀價格急速回彈的主要因素。該等措施使全球經濟再膨脹力量及予人的想像空間，在目前這段時間相對地大大超越了收縮力量。

然而，令金銀價格最近升幅如此神速，投機資金蜂擁進入金銀市場無疑是一個重要因素。以金市為例，期金市場的未平倉合約量，在8月中旬僅為38.8萬張，為三年最低水平；但到上周四已大幅回增至48.3萬張，是今年的新高水平。另一方面，大投機者的淨好倉數量，以申算為黃金噸數計算，上月中旬為355.52噸，為過去三年多低谷之一。但截至上周二回增至556.13噸，即最近一個多月大幅回增了200.16噸或56.3％！

當然，若與去年金價升至歷史高峰1920元之前夕相比，當時大投機者所持的淨好倉數量相當於768.8噸黃金，最近一個多月無論是低潮或高潮時的數量仍屬於相對地低。低潮時數量只為高峰時數量的46.2％，即使是上周高潮的數量也僅及高峰時數量的72.3％，由此看來金價要創新高，似仍有待努力。

低息的可持續性成疑

QE3正式推出除了得到非美元市場的正面反應外，但引來的批評也愈來愈多，最嚴厲的是說貝南奇此舉把世界推向末日，較溫和的也建議觀察其真正成效。

敝欄只提出一個對該措施持續可行性的疑問，聯儲局聲稱把超低息期延至2015年中，但這次它不是如前續買長期國庫券，而改購抵押支持的證券。這樣會使美長債失去一個重要買家，恐難支持長債價保持長期高企。

最近美長債價已在圖表上形成一個頭部，正在頗重要的支持水平上爭持。萬一長債價發生逆轉，長期利率也將回升，聯儲局的持續低息目標的可行性必定受到市場的嚴重挑戰，故「無限期」的寬鬆政策不會是一廂情願地暢順的。

目前由於聯儲局重施QE，金市重返升軌，技術走勢也迅速轉好，但1800元畢竟是一個重要心理關口，1790元至1803元也是過去一年來的重要阻力地帶。周線圖上周呈現一個「十字星」的待變訊號，因此稍後市勢轉為橫向整固或稍調整的可能性，比即徑升到1814元或1826元的可能性為大。

估計橫向整固的範圍會是1752元至1790元之間；市勢若稍調整，諒在1725元附近會重現支持，而1699元已成強支持。大致來說金市是逐級地向上發展。

類似地，銀市的35.7元是現時的頗大阻力，徑升到37.5元重要阻力的機會暫時不大。稍後料進入33.8元至35.3元之間的橫向整固階段；若因超買而調整，諒在32.6元會再有支持，而31.4元已成強支持。

請讀者垂注，下周一為假期，敝欄將休刊一期，在此預祝各位節日愉快！