金價拉鋸 市況上落

石林 


上周初市場曾傳言，在前周金市交易末時段，短時間內有總值5.9億（美元．下同）的6月期金合約被拋售，致令金價從1205元水平大幅挫落至1169元，為今年3月中旬以來的低位，有人猜測是國際清算銀行（BIS）所為。

事件未有進一步數據披露，沽售者目的何在也不清楚，不過，當時金價急跌卻是事實。惟令人奇怪的是，該次拋售竟無後著，金價反而從該低位明顯回揚，上周剛好回彈至本欄上期估計的1199元短期阻力水平。

類 似事件往往又有「陰謀論」解釋，暗指是美國當局圖打壓金價的一個行動，而金價回升是中國趁低吸納的抗衡結果，但上述以「陰謀論」去詮釋似乎牽強，因為如果 真的有人意圖打壓金價，為何竟無後著？另外，近年中國占全球黃金交易的比重日增，誠然是事實。數據顯示截至4月24日的一周，上海黃金交易所的黃金實物提 取量又高達50.796噸，累積提取量共增至8696噸，但不代表中國全吸納了西方的拋售量，這是兩個不同概念。

如果單看金價波動行 情，最近兩周金價跌而復升的現象，可以說是近多個月來金市失去明確方向、在偏低水平拉鋸局面的繼續。即使在極短線，這種市況亦不時上演。例如在上週五，被 認為是5月份最重要經濟數據、即美國上月就業數據發表，數據甫出，金價急從1183元漲升到1193.5元，或許以為市勢回升，但金價迅即又回落到 1181.5元，竟低於剛才彈升的起步點，市場又以為是市勢轉跌。惟金價再往上爬升，至收市時以1187.5元結束一周交易，較前週回揚9.6元。

從 上述市況現象，可以察覺金市並無明確市勢，上下拉鋸戰常常發生，只是時密時疏而已。事實上，美國加息時間表至今仍無從估計，上月就業數字雖然與市場預期大 致相若，但3月份非農業新增職位只有8.5萬個，遠低於前值的12.6萬個，並且是2012年6月以來的最小數字。整體勞動力市場情形，未足以令聯邦儲備 局急於要在6月份加息，但今年最低限度加息一次或恐難免。

其實，美國債券市場已預先反映上述情況，上週四美國10年債券的價格一度跌至 接近今年最低水平，但至上週五竟能急速反彈約年內總跌幅的五分之二。相應的10年債券孳息率，其收市價曾揚升至2.25厘，為今年的最高收市水平，但仍略 低於一年平均線，到上週末回順至2.16厘。

債市暗示短期不加息

債券市場的表現，似暗示短期內聯邦儲備局不致調升利率，但中期走勢債價仍趨跌，而債息仍趨升。這可以解釋到近期金價跌不下去，但明顯回升則談不上，陷入偏低位反复拉鋸的原因。

截至上週二，期金市場的大投機淨多頭數量又減縮至接近3月份時的低水平，本週要看是否有再度入市跡象。而SPDR的持金量上週五降至728.33噸，為今年1月中以來的最低水平。

綜上所述，估計金市仍無明確的方向，上落市勢仍會持續。 1224元依然是重要阻力，近期阻力分別在1210元和1199元；而支持分別在1178元和1169元，重要支持在1160元。

金價反复拉鋸之局，或持續到下個月聯邦儲備局議息會議前夕。

Clean Float – Why the Dollar Must Collapse

For us, taking a long term view, it's easy to see beyond
the dollar's politically maintained currency value as
represented in exchange rates. Using the above part of
Mr. D's speech, one doesn't have to be very strategic
to dodge the coming US currency collapse.
-FOA

The purpose of this post is to further explain and define the "clean float" I have been implying since last June, and to show why the dollar's collapse is an integral part of it. My view of the future international monetary system is one of a predominantly (but not mandated) "clean float" in currencies, which is the monetary side of what I call "Freegold". Physical gold movements will only settle the voluntary imbalances of individual past and present savers, not aggregated imbalances as those will be corrected gradually, through the clean float. I should add that I see this as an effect of Freegold, not a prerequisite.

Back in January, with the dollar at 93 and rising fast, Bright Aurum asked, "Should the USD strengthen too much… can the FED buy euros without calling it a peg, but say ... active monetary operations... - a strategy to shake off speculators, and so on."

Yes, the Fed could certainly do so at the behest of the US Treasury. But the irony of this transition is that the US itself has been running a clean float since 1971. It's the ROW that has been running a dirty float against the dollar.

The dirty float is any official or unofficial exchange rate fix, peg, floor, ceiling or band defended by the public sector (CB). That's what causes imbalances to grow to system-busting levels, because the public sector steps in whenever the profit-driven private sector panics which is when it would otherwise correct. Occasional FX interventions for the purpose of combating unusual volatility, as long as there is no target exchange rate level, can certainly happen within a clean float. I'm not a purist. ;D

The majority of CB FX interventions are done visibly, for all of the logical reasons, and also empirically as well as admittedly according to a survey by the BIS. (The rare reasons for secrecy, according to the survey, are 1. to not actually affect the exchange rate when the goal is simply to acquire defensive reserves, 2. in cases where the intervention is expected to fail, 3. when the CB doesn't want to intervene but is forced to do so by politicians, 4. where intervention is inconsistent with other policy objectives, hence confusing signals will be given, and 5. where the central bank is not sure what it wants to achieve.)

For the US dollar, FX interventions are executed by the Fed under the direction of the US Treasury. This happens very rarely. In fact, it only happened twice from 1996 through 2006. At the end of each quarter, the Fed reveals if any interventions happened, and there were none in 2014. See here, here, here and here. The US has been philosophically and openly opposed to exchange rate manipulations of all kinds since 1971 (except for that brief time in 1978 when it asked Germany, Switzerland and Japan to print and swap their currencies for dollars to help Carter throw everything but the kitchen sink at the problem).

Today's dollar is essentially in a similar position to a currency that has been supporting its own overvalued exchange rate by running down its foreign reserves and will inevitably collapse when they run out, only it hasn't been doing that. The ROW has been doing it to the dollar, putting it in that position. Not that the US protested much while it was getting addicted to its privilege over a half century, but of course the ultimate irony is the ongoing protestations coming out of Treasury calling for the ROW to Stop Currency Manipulation!

It should be quite entertaining to watch how it all plays out next time the dollar starts plummeting, as long as you have some of those items I mention occasionally which let you sleep well at night. In terms of foreign reserves to deploy, the US has fewer than Korea, Mexico and Thailand, but slightly more than Malaysia and Indonesia. Of course it also has its gold, but that was not earned through running a surplus recently, it was earned through running a surplus 70 years ago and would have been long since gone were it not for the genius of Nixon, so US gold can't really be deployed in any meaningful way (yet). Treasury will ultimately be put in the singularly-unique position of having to both print like Mugabe to keep the bloated government functioning at status quo, AND simultaneously beg the same foreigners it has been telling to stop currency manipulation to start massively printing their own currencies to manipulate the dollar. Ouch!

It's difficult to even imagine the insane contradictions of the situation, but I imagine that's what FOA had in mind when he wrote about the US Treasury "shipping ever higher priced gold to defend an ever lower valuation of dollar exchange rates," but only "within official channels"(!), as physical gold returns "to official hands in Europe in exchange for Euros" which will presumably be used as FX reserves to support an ever lower dollar. "American policy has only the wish to manipulate its currency valuations with official currency trading" (in other words, IMO, meaning through the occasional FOREX interventions rather than a return to BW-style CB fixing or the post-BW dirty float of unofficial pegs and channels/bands) which is why "it will be in the US advantage for gold prices to rise and rise strongly" so that Treasury can get enough euros for its gold to at least slow the dollar's collapse. Remember, gold doesn't work well in currency defense at its discount market price, "just ask the Koreans and Indonesians". ;D

FOA (08/24/01; 10:54:30MT - usagold.com msg#101)
Part 2

=============================

I have presented this topic many times and again state that "all gold paper will burn". Most mine values included. Then and only then will gold values soar as physical units traded. Not before. As an adjunct, the illusion of most American paper wealth will also burn with this process that transitions the dollar away from reserve status.

At the right time the Euro Zone will withdraw from the IMF, leaving the US and its factions as the only support for dollar credit assets held overseas. Then the evolution of SDR use our guide knows so well will be complete. This will leave the SDR interpretation open to only one avenue to finding support: its basket currency function dissolved, gold will have to flow from American based stocks. With most of the present official credit gold leverage built upon IMF protocols, the US will find itself shipping ever higher priced gold to defend an ever lower valuation of dollar exchange rates.

With the world credit gold markets paralyzed in default and dollar credibility placed in question along with American economic stamina; physical gold will return to official hands in Europe in exchange for Euros. A paradox observed as high gold places more demands upon Euros and sends the dollar ever lower.

=====================

In all of this Alan Greenspan will say goodbye. A gentleman of his ability and stature will find no use for a position he cannot change from; a good general does not only retreat. Any lesser player can buy public and treasury debt for the purpose of constant hyper inflation; there is no policy strategy or gamesmanship in this.

As for gold being a problem to buy in the USA? Once again, I point out that American policy has only the wish to manipulate its currency valuations with official currency trading. It will be in the US advantage for gold prices to rise and rise strongly. An acknowledgment to Euro planning and a defeat for 30 years of American gold misuse. If treasury gold is traded at all, it will be within official channels to help control dollar values.

However, as paper gold values freeze up and their use fails the public, physical bullion brokers will become a popular as "crude oil" is to producers. I wish you "a deep well" in your affairs, my friend, and will respond more for a time.

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Thanks Mr. speaker,,,,

Thanks all
TrailGuide

http://fofoa.blogspot.hk/