Hunt for Taxes: Safe-Deposit Boxes Under Attack

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com

匯豐保管箱單野...馬田都有留意



HSBC is altering its oversight of safe-deposit boxes in Hong Kong. Governments are targeting safe-deposit boxes to look for cash that is hiding from taxation. HSBC, a U.K. bank, is now moving against claimed financial crimes by altering conditions for safe-deposit boxes. This is becoming a global trend. Anything of value that is stored in a safe-deposit box is now considered money laundering. Governments want their taxes and all the laws are changing to ensure they get their money.




匯豐改條款可自行開啟客戶保險箱　任建峰：全球銀行均愈需掌握客戶資料

2016-5-30 18:55字體：AAA
《南華早報》今日報導，匯豐銀行上月就其保險箱新使用條款向客戶發信，新條款列明銀行有權在未預先通知或取得客戶同意下，處理保險箱中非法、冒犯或具滋擾性的物品。然而，信件並沒清楚解釋「非法、冒犯或具滋擾性」三者分別的定義，亦沒說明銀行職員可於甚麼情況下開啟保險箱，並處理當中物品。

報道引述資深大律師蘇朗年批評，新條款賦予匯豐「極權」去處理客戶的保險箱物品，侵犯個人私隱。他形容條款「荒謬」，違背了保險箱標明「安全」的使用原意。

不過本身為律師的法政匯思召集人任建峰接受《852郵報》查詢時表示，法律並沒訂明銀行開啟客戶保險箱的權限，需視乎每間銀行的實際條款。對於有人質疑銀行會否為配合政府調查而打開保險箱，任建峰指，政府依舊需先向法庭申請搜查令。另一方面，他解釋「非法」物品於法例有清晰指引，而「冒犯」及「具滋擾性」的定義則需參考有關案例。他補充指，銀行愈來愈需要得知客戶資料是全球大趨勢，以加擊黑錢交易等犯罪行為。

匯豐發言人接受傳媒杳詢時表示，因保險箱有機會被濫用作犯罪用途，而匯豐有責任維持金融體系的「誠實性」（integrity），更新條款僅為防打擊商業罪案、加強與執法機關合作之用。他強調，改動條款並不會影響保險箱服務的安全及私隱性，客戶可獲得周全保障。他其後補充，非法物品包括爆炸品、易燃液體、武器、賊贓等，又稱條款改動與英國銀行的做法一致。

(圖片來源：蘋果日報)

The War on Cash

馬田大師

Posted on April 24, 2015 by Martin Armstrong

 

The “War on Cash” is heating up. Louisiana has outlawed paying cash for second hand goods, under the pretense that criminals sell stolen goods for cash. France outlawed paying more than €1000 for anything, and you cannot get more than €200 from an ATM. JP Morgan Chase is outlawing storing cash in a safety deposit box. Most bank analysts are now calling for the end of cash. As I have been warning, in no way are we heading towards a gold standard or anything of the sort. Instead, we are heading into the eye of electronic money for taxes.

Besides the fact that government will get every halfpenny they are looking for in taxes, moving to electronic money is a major advantage for banks. This is why their fake independent analysts are all lining up to demand abolishing currency.

Of course you have the benefit of ending bank robberies. But honestly, banks do not carry that much cash anyway. The MAJOR benefit for them to eliminate cash is that it will eliminate bank runs.

The good old days of lining up at the bank to withdraw your money will be gone forever. With banks on the brink of total disaster in Europe, eliminating cash will have the desired effect of eliminating the crisis in their mind. U.S. banks see the writing on the wall, for whatever starts in Europe eventually migrates here, just like plays and fashion.

Americans are just naive. Europe has routinely cancelled currency. Old currency from a few decades ago are no longer good, even in Britain. You can swap it in if you go to the government but they often want you to prove where it came from.

The government can simply cancel ALL CURRENCY. That will force people into electronic money; it is coming faster than you may ever suspect. This is why they are also tracking the movement of gold. They are forcing society back into the barter system. Our Solution is the ONLY way out of this mess.

Fall 2015 Turning Point-Civil Unrest and Riots-Martin Armstrong

http://usawatchdog.com/

By Greg Hunter On April 12, 2015 In Political Analysis

 

 
By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com  (Early Sunday Release)


Legendary financial analyst Martin Armstrong says the world is going to be hitting a major “turning point” this fall.  Armstrong says this is the end of a 300 year cycle and contends, “This appears to be a peak, as far as governments and bond markets are concerned, and from there, we are going to be turning down.  We are in a lot of trouble with most of these governments.  Our models say that by 2020, the amount of interest we pay . . . will exceed the entire defense budget.  So, this is pretty serious.”
Armstrong says his model marks the actual turning point on October 15, 2015.  So, what’s in store?  Armstrong says, “First, you get the deflation, and then, you move to the inflation.  It’s kind of like a pendulum–it swings to the extreme to both sides.”

So, when the government bond bubble pops, what happens to people getting a government check?  Armstrong says, “That’s the big problem.  They’ve wiped out pension funds all over the place.  That’s the danger of civil unrest, and that’s what our computers have been warning about as well as very serious sharp riots and third party activity for 2016. . . . When governments are broke, they come after us.”

Will the Fed finally raise interest rates?  Armstrong contends, “The Fed will have no real choice. . . . The Fed will come under significant pressure to raise interest rates because the newspapers and Congress will blame them and say they are creating a bubble with low interest rates.  The more they raise interest rates, the higher the stock market will go.  I know that sounds crazy . . . historically, interest rates bottom with the markets.  I mean, you lose confidence and people won’t borrow.”

Will rising interest rates kill the bond and housing markets?  Armstrong goes on to say, “The bond market, yes, it will accelerate the problems as far as other foreign countries that have issued dollar based debt.  The emerging markets will get like Greece.  So, we have a serious worldwide problem going on here.”

So, when the Fed starts raising rates, will some currencies collapse?  Armstrong says, “Sure, this is what’s pushing the dollar up.  Most people don’t realize that the dollar is the only real game in town.  In Europe, you see the difference in the mentality there compared to the United States.  In the United States, we are still in a fog; over there they feel the pain.  What are they doing?  They are basically selling all the euro debt everywhere, and they are buying the German debt.   It’s not that they think Germany is fantastic, but they are assuming that the euro is going to fail.”

On gold, Armstrong says, “Gold rises when people lose confidence in government.  It has nothing to do with inflation.  So, when you start to worry about government is not going to survive or who’s going to win, that’s when gold rises.  Short term, we still have the risk of it going under $1,000 per ounce.  It’s going to flip when everything is right.  It will probably max out at $5,000 per ounce. . . . You are really talking about a major reset coming.  300 years ago, that was the revolutions against monarchy.  Today, it’s going to be revolution against . . . pretend democracy.  We do not have a democracy.”

Armstrong says you can forget about the U.S. dollar crashing in value.  Armstrong contends, “No, that’s absurd.  The euro is in terrible shape.  The yen is in terrible shape, and honestly, you can’t park money in yuan or Russian rubles yet.  I mean, let’s be realistic here, but eventually– yes.”
In closing, Armstrong says just a few percentage points in rising rates are going to cause big losses and big changes.  Armstrong predicts, “People will be losing huge money.  We are looking at a few percentage points, and you are going to blow the national debts of all these countries way out of whack, and that’s what’s going to force political change.”

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with Martin Armstrong of ArmstrongEconomics.com.

未來學家：金價能漲到5000 通脹將推動金價上漲

睇馬田個blog咁耐，都冇講2016年金價會去到五千美元! 

未來學家、經濟學家Martin Armstrong預測金價會漲到超過5000美元/盎司的水平。他認為，通脹的上漲會推動金價大幅上升，並且大眾會失去對政府和主權債券的信心。

Armstrong過去的一些預測不可謂不准，在2009年他預測金價在2010至2011年將觸及最高水平，並且在2012至2013年重新測試下行支撐。

最重要的是，Armstrong預計此後金價會一直上漲到2016年。

Armstrong表示：“和1980年那次上漲不同，當時新礦被開發，產量在增加。而目前，產量在下降，對很多看供需基本面的人來說，供應在下降，而需求在上漲，因此在出現真實的經濟危機的時候，黃金會顯得足夠珍貴。”

如果真的如他預計到2016年金價會漲到5000美元/盎司的水平，那麼黃金市場恐怕很快就會有所突破。


http://gold.hexun.com.tw/

Gold raised together with USD

Gold gone up to US$1268, after Swiss Francs unpegged Euros. People are starting to panic. Fund Managers, Swiss Francs currency holders, Greek debt holders, most stock markets fell, how about global soverign debt? People in HK are still lining up for buying flats they can't afford. You will ask, what is next? Capital flow fleeing from Eurozone is obvious and ongoing causing USD assets and tools to rise, share market in US and some countries will rally as hedge against other markets will follow. When you see more people talking about buying stocks and more people lining up for flats, the red flashing signal is "blinking".

Martin Armstong -- "It is a HEDGE AGAINST GOVERNMENT and that is what we are watching – the European hedge at the moment against the collapse of the Euro. In this context, gold and the dollar can rise together. Gold is not only a dollar influenced commodity." 

Global View of Silver

Posted on January 12, 2015 by Martin Armstrong

Silver has been rising in Russia only as a hedge against the government

Public v Private

Posted on June 18, 2014 by Martin Armstrong

 

QUESTION: Hello Martin

Could you please explain the difference between the 8.6 year peaks in the ECM cycle within the public or private wave and the 8.6 year peak at exactly the stage that it switches to the public from private wave and visa versa.
Is the difference monumental or a subtle difference.
Cheers
R

ANSWER: When these waves shift from Public and Private, the key is where does CONFIDENCE reside. Who do you trust? Government or the Private Sector? A Private Wave is where volatility is the highest and private sector assets do best. This is where we see government become more aggressive because they tend to lose control. The March of Washington led by Coxley took place during the Panic of 1893. This was a Private Wave. The culmination of that was the 1929 Bubble. We see Roosevelt’s New Deal start 1934. That culminated in the peak in interest rates precisely to the target in 1981.
Ever since we began this wave in 1985, that is when government formed G5 (now G20) and it will continue to get more aggressive as CONFIDENCE shifts from Public to Private. This typically marks defaults in government debt and rising private sector asset values.

Cold War 2 – Setting Up for the Fall – Putin Staring into the Eyes of a Dead Corpse?

The Cold War Part 2 with Russia, as always, demonstrates why we should banish lawyers from politics because they are incapable of understanding international capital flows that diminish their power. In studying law, I can tell you it is very black and white. You write a law to prevent a specific thing without any comprehension that it may have a ripple effect throughout the economy. Everything is connected and that goes to law as well. This is what they are INCAPABLE of observing for the very existence of international capital flows implies there lies something on the horizon that they cannot control

Cole War 2 is having a major ripple effect throughout the global economy that is setting it up for the next great crash after 2015.75. The Russians have been buying up real estate in Europe as well as the USA moving off the grid especially after Cyprus. They came to learn – you cannot trust banks controlled by politicians. They have been buying high-end property in NYC, California, and Florida in the United States. Guess What? This trend is suddenly coming to a screeching halt! Why? Cold War 2.


Our greatest problem has been politicians that may be lawyers but have no clue about how the economy functions. The sanctions on Russia will gut Europe where it really hurts the most – not energy – but investment. Putin is staring directly into the eyes of an economy committing suicide. In Europe, the Russian investments into real estate have been between 25% and 33% of that rising trend. This now sends serious signals to the Russians that the WORST investment during war is real estate because it is not movable. The entire Spanish housing boom was created to sell real estate to the Russians in order to support the collapse in real estate prices as their banks were unable to lend money for mortgages. Buying property in Spain got you residency – and that was a prize possession to both Russian and Chinese.

As governments changed the law limiting all cash transactions because they are in search of TAXES, these morons never grasp the trend is global – not exclusively domestic. They only see taxes and are driving off international capital. This has shifted the markets in Europe to show softness once again and the property market is now beginning to turn down.

Now the Russians are leaving London as well in mass thanks to the Cold War 2. Our politicians are clueless about capital flows and fail to understand that they have set in motion the seed for the worst downturn since the Great Depression 2015.75-2020.


http://armstrongeconomics.com/

Gold Turning Down

Posted on April 1, 2014 by Martin Armstrong

 

I have stated NUMEROUS times that gold is neither the hedge against inflation nor does it rise all alone during hyperinflation when everything rises. The difference between gold and other investments such as real estate and stocks lies in its MOVABILITY. During hyperinflation, EVERYTHING rises so long as the nation survives aside from the government. If the nation is being invaded or you have the confiscation of all wealth as was the case during the Russian Revolution, then tangible assets collapse and only gold survives for it can be easily transported from one country to the next. If the government collapses but the country survives intact, even real estate rises as do all tangible assets. Our ONLY problem or wildcard right now is that the transportation of gold becomes impossible thanks to metal detectors. This introduces a whole new variable to gold being the historical MOVABLE asset class. This is the danger presented by the NSA – the impossibility to do anything for our survival.
The Gold Promoters as always got all lathered-up proclaiming the bull market is here. They never bother looking at the world around them and cannot get through their heads that there is a huge difference between analysis and self-promoting. It gets to be like politics. The far left like the EdShow will never say anything good about a Republican and the same is true on the extreme right. Between the two is reality.

We closed Friday below the Weekly Bearish at 1309 and now we are testing the next Weekly bearish at 1280. After that we show 1240 and thereafter new lows once again. The tree has to be shaken. Just as in the stock market, when we forecast that it was turning back in 2011 and NEW HIGHS would be seen, that seemed like a novel concept that Barron’s mentioned in passing. Nevertheless, all the way up the talking heads were talking it down. That is why it kept going because the MAJORITY must ALWAYS be wrong. That is the fuel that makes the markets move.

We see a low ideally forming temporarily as early as tomorrow. If gold bounces into a marginal high next week on the 9th, then lookout below thereafter. The 2014 Metals Report will be out shortly with the long-term forecasts.


 http://armstrongeconomics.com

Cycle of War – the 6th Wave

QUESTION: Does your volatility wave based on units of 6 also apply to the Cycle of War since your 8.6 year wave builds in intensity into 6 waves of 51.6 years?

Thank you for all you provide. You do open minds.

HC

ANSWER: Absolutely. In fact, this is why I am concerned with this particular wave because it is the 6th Wave since the Civil War. If you go back 6 waves from 2014 we reach the Civil War where more people died than in World War I or II. But the civil unrest that emerged in the aftermath has been the highest we have previously seen in the USA where federal troops were actually called into many cities and gun battles took place on the streets between the people and government troops.

The worst of the civil unrest erupted exactly on the half cycle 13 years into the wave after the Civil War had actually ended. This became known as the Great Railroad Strike of 1877, that is also sometimes referred to as the Great Upheaval. It began on July 14 in Martinsburg, West Virginia, and ended some 45 days later only after it was put down by local and state militias, and federal troops. Here is an illustration from Harpers of one battle in Baltimore on July 20th. Numerous cities were set on fire, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Baltimore, Chicago, St Louis and others.

Labor unions were not involved and in fact these incidents are what later led to the formation of unions. These violent insurrections were spontaneous outbreaks in numerous cities of violence against railroads who first cut wages in the recession by 10% and then imposed a second wage cut. It was this uprising that later led to just laying people off rather than reducing wages retaining the same work force. Wages simply became inflexible.

I will deal with this issue more at the Cycle of War – Gold – Sovereign Debt Crisis Conference on March 21st. But yes. This is the 6th Wave and it appears to be one of high intensity. The 1877 crisis came on the heals of the collapse of J. Cooke, who was the first primary dealer selling US government debt. So a debt crisis was also linked to that 6th Wave not to forget the massive default of Confederate Debt on the South that wiped out personal savings as well.

Gold – A Time for Everything

Armstrong Economics

QUESTION: 

Martin,
I really appreciate all the work you do and make accessible to the common man.  Anyway, you keep saying gold will really take off in 2015/2016 which corresponds to a downturn in the ECM.  Since we are now in a downturn until 2014 albeit minor, why is gold going down and not rising if only slightly?
Thanks for your time and consideration.
Dave


ANSWER: Gold is basing – not falling apart. Moving sideways in a bear market is the equivalent of a rally. The old saying, what will not go up, goes down twice as hard. This applies to gold. Gold keeps falling below 1300 because it will test the 1000 level and probably reach between there and 900. This is a question of time more than price. We are preparing the 2014 report now. Just as the Bible says – there is a time for everything.

Gold – Down & Dirty

MartinArmstrong

November 2, 2013 by 

Gold is in a bearish trend. Despite everything the gold promoters have told you, gold just is not responding the way they have been predicting or should I say promoting. They do not take your economic survivability seriously. It is just like the Bible says – there is a time and place for everything. Mining delivered a lead article - Horror story for gold investors continues Friday.

We are preparing a very important gold report. As you can see from the cover, gold hasNEVER exceeded the 1980 high. It has been the WORST hedge against inflation possible. That does not mean it will never really rally. If the Mexican share market doubled, but the peso fell by 80%, an American will lose money. Gold is no different. Those who are already penning hate mail will most likely lose the farm on gold and the wife will take what’s left. If you want to make money, it is important to understand the TRUTH. You cannot invest and survive on a pack of lies. A fool is always easily separated from his money.

It is time to stop the bullshit. It is time to open your eyes or you will miss the REAL rally in gold and you will not believe the rally because you lost your shirt on the previous fake rally. It is time to stop being the Pawn of Finance - lied to from every angle be it government, banks, or promoters with conflicts of interest. To survive your OWN financial decisions it takes a clear mind and shedding all bias and prejudice.

2016 – the Coming Event Horizon

Armstrong Economics 

I have written about the 224 year cycle. These turning points have marked major changes in political trends. Sometimes society survives mostly intact because we blink such as the replacement of monarchy in Britain or the overthrow of the king in Rome giving birth to the Republic in 509 BC and the birth of Democracy in Athens the following year in a sweeping contagion of political change.

If we add 72 years to the Mississippi and South Sea Bubbles of 1720, we arrive at 1792 (1720 + 72), which was also the first Panic in the United States real estate market. Now add 224 years to that and we come to a Event Horizon in 2016. Now take gold which appears headed like a magnet moving into two 8.6 year cycles back-to-back from the 1999 low (17.2 years), which also brings us to 2016. Add 26 years to the Japan Bubble Top 1989.95 and we also arrive at 2016. Add 31.4 years to 1985, which was the birth of the G5 (Plaza Accord) organized attempt to manipulate the world currency markets and we also arrive at 2016.

Our computer has been warning for decades that 2016 will be the beginning of a rise in third party activity. To accomplish that, we should see stagflation where assets rise with a strong dollar that causes confusion at the Fed who will respond by raising interest rates trying to stop a speculative bubble it fails to comprehend.

That asset bubble is driven by capital inflows both from Asia and Europe. This will send the dollar higher, create massive dollar loan losses, the Fed will be powerless and raise interest rates to stop a speculative bubble that will merely draw in more capital thanks to higher interest rates. The global economy is beyond the control of central banks and their attempts to manipulate the business cycle have placed them in direct harmony with it as the free market now manipulates government.

2016 will be an Event Horizon. Government cannot let go of the reins of power. That would be admitting defeat. What they will do in the next two years, they are compelled to do out of their failed usurpation of power to rule the economy under Marxist-Keynesianism. They cannot see that being the biggest debtors, they are also the biggest borrowers. They will raise rates trying to stop what they will think is speculation and increase their own indebtedness.

They will hold a gun to their own head and yell do not move or they will pull the trigger. This is how REAL inflation is created and empires, nations, and city states all collapse only to be buried in a common grave. They will die by their own hand for they are too stupid to understand they are compelled to commit suicide.

Gold – Sell – Buy – Hold?

馬田在今年3月份的文章內,

曾經提到要留意今年5/6月黃金的變化

Everything as far as strategy is concerned depends upon your position. Those who have physical coin it is more difficult to sell and buy than to hold. Traders must go with the trend. If you have tons of physical, then you should be a hedger. Gold has not BROKEN yet. It is in serious trouble but the key in gold lies at 15470, 15413, and 15323. We have a huge gap from there to 11589 and this is not real good from a trading perspective. If you are a trader, of course you must sell. Physical coins, in a reasonable quantity should just be hedged. Small quantities, of physical gold are typically just a hold.

The key areas of support will be 14650, 13800, 11500, and the extreme at 9070. Where does a BEAR MARKET begin long-term, 680. Therefore, that does not appear to be viable..Gold still looks to be headed to new highs after 2015.75.

There MUST be a correction in order to revitalize the market for a further advance. So, your risk in a decline to 11500 area down to 9070. Keep in mind that it will often take a poke below a major psychological number such as 1,000.to turn the majority bearish. In 1985 gold moved to 280.50 and then reversed. For 1999, that had to be penetrated and gold stopped at 254.0. Therefore, you can stop just a hairs-breath above a number such as 254 hold 250 or you can penetrate it up to generally 10% as 280 with the 300.

So it is entirely possible that if the 11500 gives way, we will stop just under 1,000 flushing out everyone who keeps saying buy and never sell. If that is too much risk, then sell and get back in with the first Monthly Bullish Reversal elected.

Gold is like ALL markets. It rises and falls. Physical gold with golds is an insurance policy. This is NOT the “investment” to make INCOME from. That requires trading or buying stocks that at least pay dividends.

Thus, buy, sell, or hold depends upon you personal threshold of pain and your objective. Trades – trade off the Reversals. We are not yet ready for prime time. We are still looking at May/June 2013 as a key target in TIME. Keep in mind, that the faster you decline, the faster it is over with. The slower more dragged out, the greater the risk of a dead market for several years. We will have to reassess where gold is come June.

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/03/02/gold-sell-buy-hold/

Gold – Reality Check

I remain long-term bullish on gold which is the HEDGE against government – not inflation. This nonsense of fiat and all that bullshit sounds good. But that was all true when gold fell for 19 years as well. This is a market. The object here is to SURVIVE what is coming. The market is NEVER wrong! The sooner you realize that to be correct, you have to see the world as a whole – not one tiny slice. The special report is out dealing with the new round of sovereign government gold sales. Remember one thing. You CANNOT judge others or the world by your personal view. Everyone acts out of their own perspective. It is idiotic to argue someone is wrong and try to drown-out anyone who disagrees with your view. That is the quick path to bankruptcy.

I simply object to those who speak bullshit, talk always fundamentals, and then blame everyone else when they are wrong while NEVER saying sell. NOTHING is perpetually a buy. This is about surviving. It is not a vendetta to simply espouse beliefs that are rooted in some bias. Fundamentals FAIL because people try to reduce everything to a single cause and effect. It does not work that way!!!!!! Your view is limited by your perspective. You MUST listen to the views internationally for the real trend is always the sum of all the parts.

Armstrong Economics

Making Gold & Silver Legal Tender

Several lawmakers in the United States are now considering making gold and silver coins legal tender amid fears that the Federal Reserve’s monetary policies may result in a considerably drop of the dollar value. Arizona is the main state pushing for residents to be able to use bullion as rightful currency, but several other states are also considering such a move.

What they fail to realize is that NEITHER were ever demonetized. People are free to accept whatever they want in a transaction. This is why I have stated that the best bet is to buy COINS not bullion.

LEGAL TENDER is pointless. That means the GOVERNMENT must accept them in payment for PUBLIC debts – taxes! PRIVATE debts are free to do as they like and have been since 1975. This are not the source of the problem. Bretton Woods made gold money – it did nothing. Alone gold FAILS to restrain government in modern or ancient times. This is like fining your wife because you did not take out the trash. It is INDIRECT accomplishing nothing – been there done that. The Constitution already provides for gold and silver coins to be legal tender. I am sure the IRS will be glad to accept $1 in silver coins at face value for taxes.

• Article I, Section 8, Clause 5. The Congress shall have Power…To coin Money, regulate the Value thereof, and of foreign Coin, and fix the Standard of Weights and Measures.
•  
• Article I, Section 8, Clause 6. The Congress shall have Power…To provide for the Punishment of counterfeiting the Securities and current Coin of the United States.
•  
• Article I, Section 9, Clause 7. No Money shall be drawn from the Treasury, but in Consequence of Appropriations made by Law.
•  
• Article I, Section 10, Clause 1. No State shall…coin Money; emit Bills of Credit; make any Thing but gold and silver Coin a Tender in Payment of Debt.
•  

Here is the culprit. They borrow so they do not have to tax. If they taxed people for what they really spent, there would have been a revolution long ago. They borrow to avoid taxes so the Marxists can run for office promising to bribe the people you get this at no cost.

• Article I, Section 8, Clause 2. The Congress shall have Power…To borrow Money on the credit of the United States.

You have to ELIMINATE the power to borrow for whatever is MONEY will always be irrelevant.

Armstrong Economics

Regulating Gold Getting Tighter

Armstrong Economics

Posted on April 8, 2013

The story of ABN Amro ceasing delivery of precious metals it had previously offered to its Dutch clients regarding gold, silver, platinum and palladium, had been an agreement with Deutsche Bank Netherlands, who suspended that agreement. The change only impacts those in Holland and has nothing to do with paper contracts that exist in every futures market. For every purported “short” position there is matched “long” position and the spin is those longs would really drive up the price if the shirts were not there. Crazy logic that assumes such longs are long-term investors rather than traders and hedgers.

At the root of the cause of this issue is governments demanding information on any delivery of precious metals. The US has imposed tracking of all gold in and out of refineries. Governments realize that the precious metals are the door to the underground economy. They are doing their best to slam it shut.

Obviously, purchasing precious metals in a situation other than anonymous cash, leaves a trail for government to follow. Storage facilities in Europe have thrown out all Americans. If a foreign entity FAILS to report anything an American does in Europe, its assets are subject to confiscation in USA. Unless we can attack the tax system, there will be no hope for liberty to survive.

Armstrong Economics_Gold – To Buy or Not To Buy

Armstrong Economics

馬田大師提到,直至2015年,這段時間內黃金是築底階段




Gold is still in a basing phase. The interesting thing is how some have sold this market as the single exception to everything in the world and how it can only rise. Gold is a tiny fraction within the scheme of the global economy. It really is no longer relevant for in case you haven’t noticed, they have successfully replaced even paper with electronic bits of data – ie Bitcoin. This changes everything and eliminates privacy.


Nonetheless, all is not lost. It is important to at least understand the nature of the beast or else how are you going to survive.

 Gold is a  infinitesimal market and claims that it has to rise to $30,000 to restore some equilibrium sound nice, but are impractical. Here are two coins, the rarest of all Roman known as the Saturninus of which (1) is in private hands, and the 1804 US silver dollar of which there are 15 known. The Roman sold for $500,000 back in 1997 whereas the 1804 sold for $3.7 million in 2008. The Roman today would probably fetch $5 million or more, but there is no equilibrium. Demand fluctuates and like the silver gold ratio, it will move all over the place.

The advantage of gold has been its wide acceptance of an object of value. That has made it desirable and negotiable. But make no mistake about it, it will not go to $30,000 simply because if you divide the gold reserves into the debt that is where it should be. Sounds nice, but NOTHING works that way. Using that logic, the Saturninus should bring 15 times that of an 1804 US coin or about $55 million. You can look at countless areas in all countries and sectors. What makes a condo worth $5 million in NYC when the same thing in Princeton, New Jersey would be $1 million. It is called demand.  

The Dow was at 1,000 in 1980 and gold hit $875. The Dow reached almost 15,000 and gold almost 2,000. Under this logic, gold has to rise to match the Dow, or the Dow must crash to match gold. Such equilibrium comparisons are like fools gold.


 
Gold will rise, but not until 2015-2017 for an exponential move. It should find support and establish a base. It will rally and get everyone excited as they always do coming out claiming the low is in place and how they were right because money is fiat. 

Then gold will go back down, they will eventually have to capitulate and those that bought on the nonsense of stories for the wrong reasons will get burned as always. Understand, it is a market. There is a TIME to buy and there is a TIME to sell. Welcome to cycles.

armstrongeconomics.com 

Silver – Beware of 2640

A reader wrote:

Yes. I am a “silverbug”. I never attacked you since I am a very open minded silverbug not a fanatic. But now the charts and the prices are showing your theory that in the economy, all the big money goes to the dollar  first.

So what should be the primary advice for timing the shifts between asset classes? thats  the hardest part for all the ordinary people like me

So we hoard US dollars now then wait “deflation” ends and when Bernanke  promise more stimulus I should go all in precious metals again?

But the EU zone has a pending crash. I should wait to see them fall.

But the Federal Reserve is monetizing deficits, and so other developed countries.

What is the best asset class then. Can we park money in one place or just trade the markets. what is your best recommendation for 2013?

Here the crazy socialist government has placed a 20% credit card prepay income tax for online purchases to stop dollar nominated transactions via internet :

http://www.buenosairesherald.com/article/126689/argentine-credit-card-holders-buying-abroad-now-charged-with-20-tax

       Thanks for any insights you may provide to a faithful reader.

I do not deal in theory or I “think”. We are all human and nobody is perfect despite the hype. The unfolding of events is always a sequence never all at once. It takes patience but you can confirm it is developing because it is all connected. Princeton Economics was simply the largest international advisory firm that probably ever existed. When I testified before Congress it was because we at that time had more than 50% of the US National Debt under contract. Now you can spin that claiming I manipulated the world, or you can realize that we solved problems and crises and in so doing, we saw behind the curtain how capital REALLY moves. If there was some giant conspiracy, then why call us if they were always in charge? There are always conflicts globally and at times within the same company as branches fight with each other. Citibank was have a international gathering in Asia. I was signed up to speak. They paid all expenses. But it was the Asian and European branches that wanted me there. New York objected saying they did not want to air their dirty laundry in front of an outsider. I was paid not to go. So these wild theories that paint even banks as unified operations are just not true.





I have been educated by the clients. They taught me to look at everything through everyone’s eyes. My dear friend Milton Friedman, who thought out of the box and was not a academic who followed the crowd, came to see me speak I believe at a COMPUTRAC seminar in Chicago. He convinced me that I had a front row seat that no one else ever accomplished, and that was for a purpose. So there are people who still want to make it personal and try to reduce me to their level of just opinion. Sorry – I go by the numbers dispassionately.

The Fed’s monetization is nothing. That is one side of the coin. With the global crisis, the demand for dollars keeps rising and this is why there has been no inflation because we had a massive deflation by the deleveraging of assets. The nonsense spread on this issue alone shows the hype. It is like adding income of $1 million but not expenses $1.2 million and then claiming you are rich.

The numbers are the numbers. Trying to forecast markets based upon hype is like trying to practice medicine by bleeding the patient. The global economy has moved far beyond that nonsense. It is like the people who constantly call for the Dow to Crash in 1929 style. They fail to comprehend what really took place back then. They also make the same mistake and only look at stocks domestically, not government debt, and are clueless about international capital flows.

In silver, we have TWO Weekly Bearish Reversals at 2641 and 2654. If they give way, silver will drop first to $23 zone and if that gives way, look for $17. Keep in mind that everything is HIGHLY volatile. Shaking the tree and getting the diehards out, will create a fresh base from which to rally. The longer they hold in there, the longer the decline like Japan.

The metals are still pointing higher but that is 2017. The Goldbugs blame me because they cannot admit error. This is not a religion. It is a market. The object is to survive, not donate you money to the banks who trade this stuff based upon the technicals.

We will try to have a metals update out ASAP. For now, the dollar is king. Europe is committing suicide and the politicians will not reverse their course because it is all about them, not actually saving the country. Until there are one term only politicians rather than lifetime careers, there is no hope for the future.

armstrongeconomics.com

馬田大C ECB圖 22 Mar 2013轉換點

剛好今天塞浦路斯ATM限制取款，抗議開始演變為暴力,
人民對政府信心已失,政府力量開始向下, 民間力量開始凝聚

 

 

The 224 Year Cycle Turns Tomorrow

Posted on March 21, 2013

 

With the ECB giving the ultimatum  for Monday for Cyrus to either raid everyone’s accounts robbing the average person for the political misconduct of creating the Euro in a half-ass manner, they are making the 224 year cycle precisely to the day. Cyprus will have no choice to turn to Russia and Russia would be stupid not to seize this opportunity to control the energy of Europe virtually entirely. You could not ask for a more brain-dead decision than what the ECB has just done.

March 22nd – Just Amazing

 

 Copyright March 21, 2013, All Rights Reserved

by Martin Armstrong

The European Central Bank (ECB) effectively said they were unwilling to continue providing emergency liquidity to Cypriot banks and would not guarantee funding beyond Monday, unless a bailout deal emerges. This is just astonishing because tomorrow, March 22, 2013 is the end of the American Era for it is the peak in the sphere of American influence. Cyprus is being forced to invite in Russia and this will be an amazing turning point. I said at the Sovereign Debt Crisis Conference I would be stunned if something took place precisely on this daily target. It looks like this is THE event of all time and is the start of the rise of Russia to the world stage. It may be like the assassination of the arch duke that started World War I. 


No one has been more stunned by the accuracy of the Economic Confidence Model than myself for it even projected 911 precisely to the day from the peak of that wave 1998.55. That even was amazing as well. However, coincidence is one thing. When this wave precisely highlights specific days years in advance and then they happen, no one is more stunned than myself.


We recalculated the 8.6 year wave from the start of the Sovereign Debt Crisis that began in Greece. The first wave leg of 2.15 years brought us to precisely the very day when Spain sought a bailout. The accuracy of this wave for market events and geopolitical events suggests only one possible explanation. There is tremendous order hidden within the activities of man. Perhaps we have tapped into that ultimate source that everyone has been trying to find – the Grand Unified Theory.


At the Sovereign Debt Crisis Conference, we discussed that the next step was forced loans. By the time I was finished, the ECB had proposed just stealing the money from all depositors in Cyprus. But there are so many ramifications to this entire crisis and now the ECB has given a ultimatum that they just confiscate the assets of the people laying the seeds for unbelievable civil unrest by Monday. The streets of Nicosia were eerily calm on Wednesday evening after the Cypriot parliament rejected the euro-zone plan to impose a forced levy on bank accounts held with financial institutions in the country. The ECB and Europeans just are brain-dead. They would rather tear Europe apart than admit their plans for the creation of the Euro were seriously flawed.
That lack of foresight in Europe demonstrates that those who create conspiracy theories assuming such knowledge to such schemes seriously over-estimate the brain power of those in political office. When you only have a hammer, everything looks like a nail. They are opening the door to their own demise.

We are only talking about almost €6 billion that the levy was to raise. They have been all but openly stating that pay your bills or get out. The Cypriot Finance Minister Michalis Sarris told reporters on Thursday that his country is not seeking additional loans, preferring instead to target investments in the banking and natural gas sectors. Russia will now have to be brain-dead itself if it does not jump in with both feet getting that long dreamed of warm-water port.

Nobody is more shocked than I that on a 224 Year Cycle it appears that a major event will take place right to the day.

armstrongeconomics