2012年7月18日星期三

未來白銀價格將走向何方

http://ag.cngold.org


白銀走出貨幣舞台已經是一個多世紀之前的事情了。不過從其需求關係來看,由於需求方需求量的增加,白銀長期的價格走勢應當以逐步上升為主。特別是在未來5~10年裡全球半導體市場將會發生最為深刻的變化,電子產品的更新換代以及消費需求的慢慢回暖,將會是推動白銀需求增長的重要因素。
近兩年支撐白銀需求的最主要部分——工業需求的變化並不大,儘管經濟危機讓很多行業的需求都下降了。


究其原因,是半導體行業受到智能手機和平板電腦等新型電子產品的普及促進了白銀工業需求的增長。根據北美半導體協會的最新統計數據顯示, 2011年全球半導體銷售額成長率為0.4%,總金額達2995.2億美元。半導體行業的數據表明,儘管遭遇了金融危機和日本大地震,但是全球半導體消費增長的勢頭並未減少,這也意味著工業對白銀的需求也並未減少。可以預見,一旦經濟恢復,工業再次快速發展起來之後,白銀的需求也將隨之增加。
此外,還有一個有趣的現象,由於能源成本和人力資源成本的上升,白銀的礦產成本在過去幾年裡也大幅上升。 2007年時白銀的礦產成本僅有1.36美元/盎司,但是到了2011年,白銀的礦產成本已經上升到了7.25美元/盎司,如果按照市場均價是礦產成本的3~5倍來計算的話,那麼白銀的合理價格應當在年平均22美元/盎司~36美元/盎司之間。因此,未來白銀的價格很可能會出現成本推動型的上升。
長期來看,白銀價格重新回到40美元/盎司之上甚至於超過50美元/盎司的水平都是有可能的。不過,這一切都要看全球經濟的恢復水平,畢竟,金融危機仍未過去,工業生產和消費的增長也並未完全恢復,這個過程可能還需要很長時間。

Marc Faber : Buy Gold Right Away

 http://gold-silver-market


“If you don’t own any gold, I would start buying some right away, keeping in mind that it could go down,” says Marc Faber “The possibility of the gold price going down doesn’t disturb me,” says Faber. “Every bull market has corrections,” “No, gold is not in a bubble. It wasn’t in a bubble in 1973, either, but it still corrected by 40% then,” “I don’t believe gold is anywhere near a bubble phase,”

Rule - The Physical Silver Market Is Getting Dangerously Tight

kingworldnews.com / July 17, 2012
With continued volatility in global stock markets, and gold staging a big rally off of the lows, today King World News interviewed one of the wealthiest and most street-smart pros in the business, Rick Rule.  Rule told KWN that when it comes to silver, “there is the strong case for some very substantial upside.”
Rule, who is now part of Sprott Asset Management, discussed silver and gold at length.  He also talked about the problems the world currently faces.  But first, here is what Rule had to say about Sprott’s very successful offering in the Sprott Physical Silver Trust: “I think it’s evidence of two things:  One, we felt we had reasonably good chances of buying the silver if we raised the money.  Second, this points to the continuing strength of the high end retail investment market for silver in North America.”
Rick Rule continues:
“The offering was well received.  It was sold out, including the green shoe (over-allotment).  This is also evidence of the fact that while some of the more leveraged institutions have been forced sellers of silver, there is still very strong high end retail demand.  These are individuals who don’t feel financial stress, and who feel better owning physical silver.
I think this is the kind of thing you will see Sprott do, from time to time, when there is demand in the market, and also when supplies can meet that demand.  As you know, with regards to the Sprott Trust, unlike some of the ETF’s, we own physically our silver.  There are no deposit receipts and our silver is never hypothecated.
Although supplies might be adequate for us to buy that silver, the fact is that the physical market continues to get tighter….
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搶救美債 僅剩4年

市場將對美債失去耐心
〔編譯盧永山/綜合報導〕先鋒集團警告,美國只剩下四年時間遏止債務攀升,否則投資人將發動革命,推高借貸成本。該集團持有一四八二億美元美國公債,是美債的最大民間投資人。
先鋒集團固定收益部門主管奧瓦特(Robert Auwaerter)表示:「在缺乏長期可靠計畫的情況下,美國政府在市場失去耐心前,大約只剩下四年的時間。」
債 務危機重創歐洲國家,有五國因投資人抵制其公債,導致公債殖利率飆高,被迫申請紓困。美國不僅避開歐債危機,受益於美元作為全球主要外匯存底貨幣的地位, 投資人還爭相購買美國公債避險,導致美國公債殖利率降至歷史最低,即使美國政府負債已從二○○七年的不到九兆美元,暴增至十五.九兆美元。
根據國際貨幣基金(IMF)的資料,全球外匯存底中,美元比重占六十二.二%,歐元為二十四.九%。
奧瓦特表示:「美債能夠順利過關,部分是因為市場流動性吸引了買家,但如果有替代方案,這些流動性是不存在的。」
由於全球成長趨緩,上週美國十年期公債殖利率下跌○.○六個百分點至一.四九%,六月一日盤中更曾創下一.四四%的歷史最低紀錄,遠低於三月二十日的今年最高二.四%,而過去二十年的平均水準為四.八八%。
美債報酬率曾高達9.8%
標準普爾去年八月五日調降美國AAA信評以來即將屆滿一年,美債價格不僅未如很多人擔心地下跌,反而出現二○○八年以來最大漲幅,去年八月五日至今,美債投資報酬率達七%,去年全年報酬率更達九.八%。
但奧瓦特指出,美國國會必須與年底總統大選的贏家合作,無論是歐巴馬或共和黨的候選人羅尼,在三到五年內通過讓美國邁向可支撐預算的路徑。
奧瓦特說,由於美國健保支出龐大,加上嬰兒潮世代即將出現退休潮,將對社會安全體系構成壓力,這些情況都將在三至五年內達到緊要關頭。在三至五年內,市場可能認為美國和義大利與西班牙相同,開始評估持有美國公債的信用風險溢價。