2017年6月17日星期六
2016年11月14日星期一
Only Days Until World Money Changes Forever
While these SDR plans might seem complex, they’re actually not complicated. People will make it complicated or make it sound confusing but the Federal Reserve has a printing press, they can print dollars. The IMF also has a printing press and can print SDRs. It’s just world money that could be handed out and could be used to cause inflation.
I am often asked, “What’s an SDR? If I had 100 SDRs how many dollars would that be worth? How many euros would that be worth?”
There’s a formula for determining that, and as of today there are 4 currencies in the formula: dollars, sterling, yen, and euros. Those are the 4 currencies that comprise in the SDR calculation. As of the close of business on September 30th, or in effect when we wake up October 1st, there’s going to be a fifth currency added, which is the Chinese yuan.
The Chinese yuan does not meet the typical SDR criteria, so it would not normally qualify. However, this is a political decision by the IMF attempting to get China on the bus. In the 1960s we had an expression, “you’re either on the bus or off the bus,” and right now China’s off the bus but as of September 30th they’re going to be “on the bus.” They’re going to be part of the SDR.
Does that mean the dollar becomes worthless overnight? Of course not. You’re going to wake up October 1st, you’ll still have dollars in your pocket, you’ll still get paid in dollars, those will be worth something, but it will be a very significant turning point.
We will look back on that date a few years from now we’ll look back on September 30th, 2016 and reflect, “That was the day the dollar began its demise.” Officially that’s when the Chinese yuan was put into the SDR and the SDR gained the backing it needs from the emerging markets, from China and from the BRICS, to become the new world money.
It is definitely possible to see that coming. It will play out in stages. It doesn’t happen overnight, but it is one of those turning points. There are a lot of way to get ready for this, but don’t wait until it happens when the whole world says, “too bad about the dollar.”
This will be a key turning point. It’s one of those days when it should prompt people, really starting now, but certainly not later than September 30th, to act.
Here’s the point. The SDR world money, as I mentioned, is a “basket.” Today there’s 4 parts of the basket. In the future there will be 5 parts. The one that has been designed, the synthetic SDR, has the 5 parts because we know China’s coming in, we even know what their percentage is going to be.
What the SDR does is it takes you out of the currency wars. A lot of people are getting whipped around, with volatility for which they’re not getting paid. They’re having occasional large losses based on the currency wars.
The currency wars are not going away. Because you’ve got all 5 major currencies, it neutralizes the currency war activity and gives you a plan going forward.
- Source, James Rickards via the Daily Reckoning
2016年7月30日星期六
Silver — Once and Future Money
Before the Renaissance, world money existed as precious metal coins or bullion. Caesars and kings hoarded gold and silver, dispensed it to their troops, fought over it, and stole it from each other. Land has been another form of wealth since antiquity. Still, land is not money because, unlike gold and silver, it cannot easily be exchanged, and has no uniform grade.
In the fourteenth century, Florentine bankers (called that because they worked on a bench or banco in the piazzas of Florence and other city states), accepted deposits of gold and silver in exchange for notes which were a promise to return the gold and silver on demand. The notes were a more convenient form of exchange than physical metal. They could be transported long distances and redeemed for gold and silver at branches of a Florentine family bank in London or Paris.
Bank notes were not unsecured liabilities, rather warehouse receipts on precious metals.
Renaissance bankers realized they could put the precious metals in their custody to other uses, including loans to princes. This left more notes issued than physical metal in custody. Bankers relied on the fact that the notes would not all be redeemed at once, and they could recoup the gold and silver from princes and other parties in time to meet redemptions. Thus was born “fractional reserve banking” in which physical metal held is a fraction of paper promises made.
Despite the advent of banking, notes, and fractional reserves, gold and silver retained their core role as world money. Princes and merchants still held gold and silver coins in purses and stored precious metals in vaults. Bullion and paper promises stood side-by-side. Still, the system was bullion-based.
Silver performed a leading role in this system. This is seen in the success of the Spanish dollar, an eight-real coin, called in Spanish the real de a ocho, or piece-of-eight. The Spanish dollar contained 0.885 ounces of pure silver. It was a 22-karat coin with a total weight of 0.96 ounces (once an alloy was added for durability).
The Spanish Empire minted the real de a ocho to compete as currency with the Joachimsthaler of the Holy Roman Empire. The Joachimsthaler was a silver coin minted in the St. Joachim Valley (thal in German). The word Joachimsthaler was later shortened to taler, cognate with the word “dollar” in English.
Both the Spanish piece-of-eight and the German taler were predecessors of the American silver dollar. Spanish dollars were legal tender in the United States until 1857. As late as 1997, the New York Stock Exchange traded shares in units of one-eighth of a dollar, a legacy of the original silver piece-of-eight.
Similar silver coinage was adopted in Burgundy, the Netherlands (called the leeuwendaalder or “lion dollar”), and Mexico from the seventeenth century. Spanish silver dollars were widely used in world trade. Silver was almost the only commodity accepted by China in exchange for Chinese manufactures until the nineteenth-century. China put its own chop on the Spanish coins to make them a circulating currency in China. If gold was the first world money, silver was the first world currency.
Silver’s popularity as a monetary standard was based on supply-and-demand. Gold was always scarce, silver more readily available. Charlemagne invented quantitative easing, or “QE,” in the ninth century by substituting silver for gold coinage to increase the money supply in his empire. Spain did the same in the sixteenth century.
Silver has most of gold’s attractions. Silver is of uniform grade, malleable, relatively scarce, and pleasing to the eye. After the U.S. made gold possession a crime in 1933, silver coins circulated freely. The U.S. minted 90% solid silver coins until 1964. Debasement started in 1965.
Depending on the particular coin — dimes, quarters, or half-dollars — the silver percentage dropped from 90% to 40%, and eventually to zero by the early 1970s. Since then, U.S. coins in circulation contain copper and nickel.
From antiquity until the mid-twentieth century, citizens of even modest means might have some gold or silver coins. Today there are no circulating gold or silver coins. Such coins as exist are bullion — kept out of sight.
Here’s a close-up of a
silver ingot. These ingots are stamped (just like paper money) with
important information. Here, you can clearly see stamps for the refinery
that produced the ingot (Argor Heraeus), the country of origin
(Switzerland), and the purity of the silver (999.9). There is also a
stamp for the assayer (MH Melter) who tests the purity. The ingots are
also stamped with a date (this ingot is 2016), and a unique serial
number (not shown).
Is it time to add silver to your portfolio?At Intelligence Triggers, we use a method called causal inference to make forecasts about events arising in complex systems, such as capital markets. Causal inference methodology is based on Bayes’ Theorem, an early 19th century formula first discovered by Thomas Bayes. The formula looks like this in its modern mathematical form:
In plain English, this formula says that by updating our initial understanding through unbiased new information, we improve our understanding. I learned to use this method while working at CIA, and we apply it at Intelligence Triggers today.
The left side of the equation is an initial estimate of the probability of an event happening. New information goes into right hand side of the equation. If it’s consistent with our estimate, it goes into the numerator (which increases the odds of our expected outcome). If it’s inconsistent, it goes into the denominator (which lowers the odds of our expected outcome).
In this case, we have used the formula to estimate the probabilities of a significant rise in the price of silver in the next six months. We estimate a 60% probability that the price of silver will increase at least 25% in the next six months. That’s a strong enough signal to trigger a “buy” recommendation using our proprietary Kissinger Cross methodology.
We update our forecast continually based on new information. What are some of the data points included in our most recent updated forecast?
- The price of silver has shown great resilience in the face of significant headwinds. Silver has backed off a bit from its recent high of $20.37 per ounce on July 13. But, it’s holding around the $19.50 per ounce level, the highest price in two years. This is true despite a bearish commitment of traders report from the COMEX, approaching futures expiration (usually a time for downward price pressure by shorts), reduced Brexit fears, increased COMEX margin requirements, a stronger dollar, and a new round of tough talk from the Fed about rate hikes coming in September.Normally, any one of these factors would be enough to push silver significantly off the recent highs. The fact that silver has been resilient in the face of all six factors at once is a bullish sign
- In addition to holding up well in the face of bearish factors, silver is set to get a boost from several bullish factors that have not yet been fully priced in by the markets. Despite the recent strong dollar and tough talk from the Fed, the U.S. economy cannot afford a strong dollar. The strong dollar is deflationary and pushes the Fed further away from its inflation targets. The Fed will not raise rates in September (and probably not for the rest of this year). Once that dovish signal gets priced in by the markets, the dollar will weaken and the dollar price of silver will get a boost
- Regardless of which party wins the U.S. presidential election in November, the U.S. is set for a round of helicopter money (fiscal stimulus monetized by the Fed) in 2017. If Hillary Clinton wins, that probably means a pick-up in Senate votes for Democrats and a bipartisan infrastructure spending bill. If Donald Trump wins, he has already promised massive infrastructure spending, starting with “The Wall.”
Regards,
Jim Rickards
for The Daily Reckoning
2016年5月17日星期二
“Power Elites Are Now Speaking Openly About Revaluing Gold” – Jim Rickards
The power elites are now speaking openly about revaluing gold, which is just a form of currency devaluation…”
“Eighty-five years ago this month, Credit-Anstalt, by far the largest bank in Austria, collapsed. By that July, banks in Egypt, Germany, Hungary, Latvia, Poland, Romania, and Turkey had experienced runs. A banking panic hit the United States in August, though the sources of that panic may have been domestic. In September, banks in the United Kingdom experienced large withdrawals. The parallels to the 2008 collapse of the US investment bank Lehman Brothers are strong – and crucial for understanding today’s financial risks.
For starters, neither the collapse of Credit-Anstalt nor that of Lehman Brothers caused all of the global financial tumult that ensued. Those collapses and the subsequent problems were symptoms of the same disease: a weak banking system.
In Austria in 1931, the problem was rooted in the breakup of the Austro-Hungarian Empire after World War I, hyperinflation in the early 1920s, and banks’ excessive exposure to the industrial sector. By the time Credit-Anstalt collapsed, the world had been in deep recession for two years, banking systems in a number of countries had become fragile, and tensions were easily transmitted across national borders,with the gold standard exacerbating financial vulnerability by constraining central banks’ ability to act.”
. . . . . .
“Unable to rule out a new crisis, how well are we equipped to cope with one? The short answer is: not very.
In fact, if a financial crisis were to occur today, its consequences for the real economy might be even more severe than in the past.” . . . . . .
“In the early twentieth century, central banks could all devalue their currencies against gold, thereby raising the price level and escaping debt deflation. And, indeed, nine countries, including the UK, did exactly that in 1931, with another eight countries, including the US, following suit over the next five years. Today, however, currency depreciation is a zero-sum game.”
Submitted by Larry White:
Former BIS official Stefan Gerlach writes a new article appearing on Project Syndicate here. He notes that the potential for a major crisis still exists in the global financial system and has some interesting comments on gold. Below are some quotes from the article and then some added comments. See Jim Rickards comment on the article below.“Eighty-five years ago this month, Credit-Anstalt, by far the largest bank in Austria, collapsed. By that July, banks in Egypt, Germany, Hungary, Latvia, Poland, Romania, and Turkey had experienced runs. A banking panic hit the United States in August, though the sources of that panic may have been domestic. In September, banks in the United Kingdom experienced large withdrawals. The parallels to the 2008 collapse of the US investment bank Lehman Brothers are strong – and crucial for understanding today’s financial risks.
For starters, neither the collapse of Credit-Anstalt nor that of Lehman Brothers caused all of the global financial tumult that ensued. Those collapses and the subsequent problems were symptoms of the same disease: a weak banking system.
In Austria in 1931, the problem was rooted in the breakup of the Austro-Hungarian Empire after World War I, hyperinflation in the early 1920s, and banks’ excessive exposure to the industrial sector. By the time Credit-Anstalt collapsed, the world had been in deep recession for two years, banking systems in a number of countries had become fragile, and tensions were easily transmitted across national borders,with the gold standard exacerbating financial vulnerability by constraining central banks’ ability to act.”
. . . . . .
“Unable to rule out a new crisis, how well are we equipped to cope with one? The short answer is: not very.
In fact, if a financial crisis were to occur today, its consequences for the real economy might be even more severe than in the past.” . . . . . .
“In the early twentieth century, central banks could all devalue their currencies against gold, thereby raising the price level and escaping debt deflation. And, indeed, nine countries, including the UK, did exactly that in 1931, with another eight countries, including the US, following suit over the next five years. Today, however, currency depreciation is a zero-sum game.”
Click here to read the full article on Project Syndicate
2015年10月2日星期五
Threat Of Cyber War – “Other Reason To Own Physical Gold” – Rickards
- “Physical gold is a non-digital asset. You can’t attack it with cyberwarfare”
– Rickards- Greek crisis was necessary step towards fiscal unity in Europe
- “Euro creators want to force common fiscal control
– Eurobonds”- Currency wars between U.S. and China may resume next year
- Rickards emphasises importance of holding physical gold
- Eschews “paper gold” in the form of ETFs, futures or unallocated storage- Gold insurance against “catastrophic event” … “on the horizon”
Author
and monetary expert Jim Rickards says that gold, apart from its
qualities as a form of insurance against conventional economic crises,
is an essential hedge against cyber warfare.
In an interview with Henry Bonner at SprottGlobal.com, ahead of the Sprott-Stansberry Vancouver Natural Resource Symposium taking place this week, Rickards said this subject would form part of his talk at the conference.
We have frequently covered the risks posed by cyber warfare and cyber terrorism to markets, investments and deposits, and these risks remain, as yet, widely underappreciated in the mainstream media and the wider world.
For example, the Stuxnet virus believed to have been deployed by the U.S. and Israel in cyber war against Iranian nuclear reactors almost caused a major environmental disaster in 2010. Dormant malware – believed to be of Russian origin – was found hidden and awaiting activation in the software that runs the Nasdaq exchange.
Moscow-based Kaspersky Lab showed earlier this year that an international team of hackers gained access to bank’s customer accounts – with the ability to alter account balances without the banks even being aware of their presence.
These examples show the highly vulnerable nature of the interconnected systems upon which people in the west have come to rely.
As Rickards astutely points out,
“Physical gold is a non-digital asset. You can’t attack it with cyber warfare, so I think it has another insurance function for investors there.”
He believes that the Greek crisis was a foreseeable step in the centralisation of power in Europe. In 1992 when it was agreed to launch a single currency there was an appetite for a common currency but a strong aversion to fiscal and political union.
The architects of the euro knew that the single currency could not exist indefinitely in the absence of fiscal union and so the project was launched in full anticipation of a crisis which could then be used as a “forcing strategy” to achieve fiscal union.
“We’re getting closer to that now,” he says. “Greece now has to run its government according to German dictates. Greece has already outsourced its monetary policy to the European Central Bank, and now it’s sort of outsourced its fiscal policy to the German finance ministry.”
“So you’re on a path to unified fiscal policy and ultimately the Eurobonds – bonds backed by full strength and credit of not just any one country but the entire Eurozone.”
He believes that there has been a lull in the currency wars between China and the U.S. but that it will likely resume next year if China manages to get the yuan included in the currency basket that makes up the SDRs at the IMF.
He says the U.S. is the gatekeeper of the IMF and so China is on its “best behaviour”. He says the Chinese are resisting the temptation to depreciate their currency despite a sluggish economy with this goal in mind but that once the objective has been achieved it will go back to currency manipulation.
He points out that the Chinese continue to accumulate large volumes of gold and that China’s stated gold reserves are an understatement.
“I believe that the numbers they have shown are significant but not nearly as high as what they actually have.”
When asked whether now is a good time to hold gold, he replied,
“I think it’s always very important to own gold. I’ve recommended that investors have about 10% of their portfolio in the yellow metal.”
He believes that such a proportion will not hurt investors too much even if the price continues its decline but that,
“If I’m right and some catastrophic event is on the horizon, then that 10% would be your portfolio insurance.”
He emphasises, however, the importance of holding physical gold as opposed to digital or paper gold.
“These products allow the counterparties to terminate the agreement by giving the investor a dollar value of their gains. But that would deprive you of any future gains. You might get cashed out just as the crisis was beginning and not be able to participate in the upside as the crises worsened.”
Rickards is correct in these warnings. If you cannot visit, hold and easily take delivery of your gold in the event of a “catastrophic event” then you do not own gold – rather you are speculating on the gold price.
All financial service and investment providers and indeed gold brokers are at the mercy of and dependent on technology today. However, if you only have one point of contact with your gold – a website – and you cannot buy, sell or take delivery of your gold then you do not own gold as financial insurance and a safe haven asset.
Henry Bonner’s interview with Jim Rickards can be listened to here
Learn the importance of owning allocated, segregated gold that you can take delivery of here
MARKET UPDATE
Today’s AM LBMA Gold Prices were USD 1,085.65, EUR 989.74 and GBP 695.36 per ounce.
Yesterday’s AM LBMA Gold Prices were 1,096.75, EUR 991.01 and GBP 701.65 per ounce.
Gold in USD – 10 Years
Gold and silver on the COMEX again both rose marginally yesterday – to $1,097.20/oz and $14.82/oz.
At the close of trade in Asia, gold fell $9 in less than a minute. Again, there was heavy selling on the COMEX in the December futures contract. More than 750,000 ounces worth of futures contracts were sold in less than 20 minutes. Once again the heavy selling came at an unusual, less liquid time of day which suggests another bear raid by institutions unknown.
Gold is down nearly 0.8% this morning after the sharp selling – snapping two days of slim gains. Gold is on track for a sixth week of losses and is down more than 1% on the week – its longest such run lower in 15 years according to Reuters.
Silver‘s also down a bit, while platinum and palladium are climbing. Platinum’s on track to snap three weeks of losses, though with a rise of just 0.5% so far on a weekly basis
http://news.goldseek.com/
– Rickards- Greek crisis was necessary step towards fiscal unity in Europe
- “Euro creators want to force common fiscal control
– Eurobonds”- Currency wars between U.S. and China may resume next year
- Rickards emphasises importance of holding physical gold
- Eschews “paper gold” in the form of ETFs, futures or unallocated storage- Gold insurance against “catastrophic event” … “on the horizon”
In an interview with Henry Bonner at SprottGlobal.com, ahead of the Sprott-Stansberry Vancouver Natural Resource Symposium taking place this week, Rickards said this subject would form part of his talk at the conference.
We have frequently covered the risks posed by cyber warfare and cyber terrorism to markets, investments and deposits, and these risks remain, as yet, widely underappreciated in the mainstream media and the wider world.
For example, the Stuxnet virus believed to have been deployed by the U.S. and Israel in cyber war against Iranian nuclear reactors almost caused a major environmental disaster in 2010. Dormant malware – believed to be of Russian origin – was found hidden and awaiting activation in the software that runs the Nasdaq exchange.
Moscow-based Kaspersky Lab showed earlier this year that an international team of hackers gained access to bank’s customer accounts – with the ability to alter account balances without the banks even being aware of their presence.
These examples show the highly vulnerable nature of the interconnected systems upon which people in the west have come to rely.
As Rickards astutely points out,
“Physical gold is a non-digital asset. You can’t attack it with cyber warfare, so I think it has another insurance function for investors there.”
He believes that the Greek crisis was a foreseeable step in the centralisation of power in Europe. In 1992 when it was agreed to launch a single currency there was an appetite for a common currency but a strong aversion to fiscal and political union.
The architects of the euro knew that the single currency could not exist indefinitely in the absence of fiscal union and so the project was launched in full anticipation of a crisis which could then be used as a “forcing strategy” to achieve fiscal union.
“We’re getting closer to that now,” he says. “Greece now has to run its government according to German dictates. Greece has already outsourced its monetary policy to the European Central Bank, and now it’s sort of outsourced its fiscal policy to the German finance ministry.”
“So you’re on a path to unified fiscal policy and ultimately the Eurobonds – bonds backed by full strength and credit of not just any one country but the entire Eurozone.”
He believes that there has been a lull in the currency wars between China and the U.S. but that it will likely resume next year if China manages to get the yuan included in the currency basket that makes up the SDRs at the IMF.
He says the U.S. is the gatekeeper of the IMF and so China is on its “best behaviour”. He says the Chinese are resisting the temptation to depreciate their currency despite a sluggish economy with this goal in mind but that once the objective has been achieved it will go back to currency manipulation.
He points out that the Chinese continue to accumulate large volumes of gold and that China’s stated gold reserves are an understatement.
“I believe that the numbers they have shown are significant but not nearly as high as what they actually have.”
When asked whether now is a good time to hold gold, he replied,
“I think it’s always very important to own gold. I’ve recommended that investors have about 10% of their portfolio in the yellow metal.”
He believes that such a proportion will not hurt investors too much even if the price continues its decline but that,
“If I’m right and some catastrophic event is on the horizon, then that 10% would be your portfolio insurance.”
He emphasises, however, the importance of holding physical gold as opposed to digital or paper gold.
“These products allow the counterparties to terminate the agreement by giving the investor a dollar value of their gains. But that would deprive you of any future gains. You might get cashed out just as the crisis was beginning and not be able to participate in the upside as the crises worsened.”
Rickards is correct in these warnings. If you cannot visit, hold and easily take delivery of your gold in the event of a “catastrophic event” then you do not own gold – rather you are speculating on the gold price.
All financial service and investment providers and indeed gold brokers are at the mercy of and dependent on technology today. However, if you only have one point of contact with your gold – a website – and you cannot buy, sell or take delivery of your gold then you do not own gold as financial insurance and a safe haven asset.
Henry Bonner’s interview with Jim Rickards can be listened to here
Learn the importance of owning allocated, segregated gold that you can take delivery of here
MARKET UPDATE
Today’s AM LBMA Gold Prices were USD 1,085.65, EUR 989.74 and GBP 695.36 per ounce.
Yesterday’s AM LBMA Gold Prices were 1,096.75, EUR 991.01 and GBP 701.65 per ounce.
Gold in USD – 10 Years
Gold and silver on the COMEX again both rose marginally yesterday – to $1,097.20/oz and $14.82/oz.
At the close of trade in Asia, gold fell $9 in less than a minute. Again, there was heavy selling on the COMEX in the December futures contract. More than 750,000 ounces worth of futures contracts were sold in less than 20 minutes. Once again the heavy selling came at an unusual, less liquid time of day which suggests another bear raid by institutions unknown.
Gold is down nearly 0.8% this morning after the sharp selling – snapping two days of slim gains. Gold is on track for a sixth week of losses and is down more than 1% on the week – its longest such run lower in 15 years according to Reuters.
Silver‘s also down a bit, while platinum and palladium are climbing. Platinum’s on track to snap three weeks of losses, though with a rise of just 0.5% so far on a weekly basis
http://news.goldseek.com/
2015年5月22日星期五
黃金仍難為貨幣背書中國囤金到底為什麼?
FX168訊對全球黃金市場來說，中國的黃金需求和持有一直是一個迷。 《貨幣戰爭》作者James Rickards稱，中國和其它新興市場國家在尋求離開全球法定貨幣系統的方法。
Rickards說：“中國會用黃金為自己的貨幣背書，並且運用亞投行和金磚銀行以及其它機構來引導新的全球金融秩序。”
儘管人民幣在國際交易中的使用有所增加，但佔比仍然不到2%，而美元占比40%。
市場對中國實際的黃金持有量有諸多猜測，但大部分都認為，目前中國央行1054噸的持有量並非實際持有量，甚至是遠低於實際持有量。
不過有分析師指出，即使中國有1萬噸黃金，也難以用黃金為貨幣背書。 1萬噸黃金的價值大約3850億美元，而今年4月中國的貨幣供應量達到了5.4萬億美元，差距巨大。
從歷史上來看，那些能夠成功實行金本位制度的國家的貨幣供應量通常有20%至40%的黃金背書。中國要達到20%的水平是可以實現的，但這意味著非常通縮的狀態，不利中國經濟。
因此，有猜測認為，中國所要做的是效仿美國，仍然實行金融紙幣標準，但用黃金來使得貨幣變得更重要。
有猜測認為，中國希望在IMF中有更重要的地位，而黃金則是其中的關鍵，可以說是一張進入“大牌俱樂部”的門票。
Rickards說：“中國會用黃金為自己的貨幣背書，並且運用亞投行和金磚銀行以及其它機構來引導新的全球金融秩序。”
儘管人民幣在國際交易中的使用有所增加，但佔比仍然不到2%，而美元占比40%。
市場對中國實際的黃金持有量有諸多猜測，但大部分都認為，目前中國央行1054噸的持有量並非實際持有量，甚至是遠低於實際持有量。
不過有分析師指出，即使中國有1萬噸黃金，也難以用黃金為貨幣背書。 1萬噸黃金的價值大約3850億美元，而今年4月中國的貨幣供應量達到了5.4萬億美元，差距巨大。
從歷史上來看，那些能夠成功實行金本位制度的國家的貨幣供應量通常有20%至40%的黃金背書。中國要達到20%的水平是可以實現的，但這意味著非常通縮的狀態，不利中國經濟。
因此，有猜測認為，中國所要做的是效仿美國，仍然實行金融紙幣標準，但用黃金來使得貨幣變得更重要。
有猜測認為，中國希望在IMF中有更重要的地位，而黃金則是其中的關鍵，可以說是一張進入“大牌俱樂部”的門票。
2014年12月29日星期一
In the Year 2024
As I awoke this morning, Sunday, Oct. 13, 2024, from restless dreams, I found the insect-sized sensor implanted in my arm was already awake. We call it a “bug.” U.S. citizens have been required to have them since 2022 to access government health care.
The bug knew from its biometric monitoring of my brain wave frequencies and rapid eye movement that I would awake momentarily. It was already at work launching systems, including the coffee maker. I could smell the coffee brewing in the kitchen. The information screens on the inside of my panopticon goggles were already flashing before my eyes.
Images of world leaders were on the screen. They were issuing proclamations about the fine health of their economies and the advent of world peace. Citizens, they explained, needed to work in accordance with the New World Order Growth Plan to maximize wealth for all. I knew this was propaganda, but I couldn’t ignore it. Removing your panopticon goggles is viewed with suspicion by the neighborhood watch committees. Your “bug” controls all the channels.
I’m mostly interested in economics and finance, as I have been for decades. I’ve told the central authorities that I’m an economic historian, so they’ve given me access to archives and information denied to most citizens in the name of national economic security.
My work now is only historical, because markets were abolished after the Panic of 2018. That was not the original intent of the authorities. They meant to close markets “temporarily” to stop the panic, but once the markets were shut, there was no way to reopen them without the panic starting again.
My work now is only historical, because markets were abolished after the Panic of 2018.
Today, trust in markets is completely gone. All investors want
is their money back. Authorities started printing money after the Panic
of 2008, but that solution stopped working by 2018. Probably because so
much had been printed in 2017 under QE7. When the panic hit, money was
viewed as worthless. So markets were simply closed.Between 2018–20, the Group of 20 major powers, the G-20, abolished all currencies except for the dollar, the euro and the ruasia. The dollar became the local currency in North and South America. Europe, Africa and Australia used the euro. The ruasia was the only new currency — a combination of the old Russian ruble, Chinese yuan and Japanese yen — and was adopted as the local currency in Asia.
There is also new world money called special drawing rights, or SDRs for short. They’re used only for settlements between countries, however. Everyday citizens use the dollar, euro or ruasia for daily transactions. The SDR is also used to set energy prices and as a benchmark for the value of the three local currencies. The World Central Bank, formerly the IMF, administers the SDR system under the direction of the G-20. As a result of the fixed exchange rates, there’s no currency trading.
All of the gold in the world was confiscated in 2020 and placed in a nuclear bomb-proof vault dug into the Swiss Alps. The mountain vault had been vacated by the Swiss army and made available to the World Central Bank for this purpose. All G-20 nations contributed their national gold to the vault. All private gold was forcibly confiscated and added to the Swiss vault as well. All gold mining had been nationalized and suspended on environmental grounds.
The purpose of the Swiss vault was not to have gold backing for currencies, but rather to remove gold from the financial system entirely so it could never be used as money again. Thus, gold trading ceased because its production, use and possession were banned. By these means, the G-20 and the World Central Bank control the only forms of money.
Some lucky ones had purchased gold in 2014 and sold it when it reached $40,000 per ounce in 2019. By then, inflation was out of control and the power elites knew that all confidence in paper currencies had been lost. The only way to re-establish control of money was to confiscate gold. But those who sold near the top were able to purchase land or art, which the authorities did not confiscate.
Land and personal property were not confiscated, because much of it was needed for living arrangements and agriculture. Personal property was too difficult to confiscate and of little use to the state. Fine art was lumped in with cheap art and mundane personal property and ignored.
Stock and bond trading were halted when the markets closed. During the panic selling after the crash of 2018, stocks were wiped out. Too, the value of all bonds were wiped out in the hyperinflation of 2019. Governments closed stock and bond markets, nationalized all corporations and declared a moratorium on all debts. World leaders initially explained it as an effort to “buy time” to come up with a plan to unfreeze the markets, but over time, they realized that trust and confidence had been permanently destroyed, and there was no point in trying.
Wiped-out savers broke out in money riots soon after but were quickly suppressed by militarized police who used drones, night vision technology, body armor and electronic surveillance. Highway tollbooth digital scanners were used to spot and interdict those who tried to flee by car. By 2017, the U.S. government required sensors on all cars. It was all too easy for officials to turn off the engines of those who were government targets, spot their locations and arrest them on the side of the road.
In compensation for citizens’ wealth destroyed by inflation and confiscation, governments distributed digital Social Units called Social Shares and Social Donations. These were based on a person’s previous wealth. Americans below a certain level of wealth got Social Shares that entitled them to a guaranteed income.
Those above a certain level of wealth got Social Donation units that required them to give their wealth to the state. Over time, the result was a redistribution of wealth so that everyone had about the same net worth and the same standard of living. The French economist Thomas Piketty was the principal consultant to the G-20 and World Central Bank on this project.
By 2017, the U.S. government required sensors on all cars.
To facilitate the gradual freezing of markets, confiscation of
wealth and creation of Social Units, world governments coordinated the
elimination of cash in 2016. The “cashless society” was sold to citizens
as a convenience. No more dirty, grubby coins and bills to carry
around!Instead, you could pay with smart cards and mobile phones and could transfer funds online. Only when the elimination of cash was complete did citizens realize that digital money meant total control by government. This made it easy to adopt former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers’ idea of negative interest rates. Governments simply deducted amounts from its citizens’ bank accounts every month. Without cash, there was no way to prevent the digital deductions.
The government could also monitor all of your transactions and digitally freeze your account if you disagreed with their tax or monetary policy. In fact, a new category of hate crime for “thoughts against monetary policy” was enacted by executive order. The penalty was digital elimination of the wealth of those guilty of dissent.
The entire process unfolded in small stages so that investors and citizens barely noticed before it was too late. Gold had been the best way to preserve wealth from 2014–18, but in the end, it was confiscated because the power elites knew it could not be allowed. First, they eliminated cash in 2016. Then they eliminated diverse currencies and stocks in 2018. Finally came the hyperinflation of 2019, which wiped out most wealth, followed by gold confiscation and the digital socialism of 2020.
By last year, 2023, free markets, private property and entrepreneurship were things of the past. All that remains of wealth is land, fine art and some (illegal) gold. The only other valuable assets are individual talents, provided you can deploy them outside the system of state-approved jobs.
Regards,
Jim Rickards
for The Daily Reckoning
2014年10月29日星期三
2014年10月26日星期日
Jim Rickards: A Dystopian View of the Year 2024
Jim Rickards has written an article titled “In the Year 2024“.
Jim introduces the article by calling it a “fictional dysptopia in the spirit of Brave New World or 1984″.
I suspect some readers will react quite strongly to this article since it describes a somewhat bleak future where government has trampled on individual freedom.
Submitted by Larry White:
However, readers should keep in mind that Mr. Rickards states this article is not a forecast or prediction of the future. Rather, it is more an attempt to alert people to the trends that are taking hold in society and challenge us to think about how we can avoid a future like this as I read the article.
Below are some quotes. Readers should read the entire article for full context. Then a few comments.
———————————————————————————————————–
“As
I awoke this morning, Sunday, Oct. 13, 2024, from restless dreams, I
found the insect-sized sensor implanted in my arm was already awake. We
call it a “bug.” U.S. citizens have been required to have them since
2022 to access government health care.”
“Images of world leaders were on the
screen. They were issuing proclamations about the fine health of their
economies and the advent of world peace. Citizens, they explained,
needed to work in accordance with the New World Order Growth Plan to
maximize wealth for all. I knew this was propaganda, but I couldn’t
ignore it.”
“Today, trust in markets is
completely gone. All investors want is their money back. Authorities
started printing money after the Panic of 2008, but that solution
stopped working by 2018. Probably because so much had been printed in
2017 under QE7. When the panic hit, money was viewed as worthless. So
markets were simply closed.”
“Between
2018–20, the Group of 20 major powers, the G-20, abolished all
currencies except for the dollar, the euro and the ruasia.”
“There
is also new world money called special drawing rights, or SDRs for
short. They’re used only for settlements between countries, however.
Everyday citizens use the dollar, euro or ruasia for daily transactions.
The SDR is also used to set energy prices and as a benchmark for the
value of the three local currencies. The World Central Bank, formerly
the IMF, administers the SDR system under the direction of the G-20. As a
result of the fixed exchange rates, there’s no currency trading.”
“All of the gold in the world was confiscated in 2020 and placed in a nuclear bomb-proof vault dug into the Swiss Alps.”
“The purpose of the Swiss vault was
not to have gold backing for currencies, but rather to remove gold from
the financial system entirely so it could never be used as money again.
Thus, gold trading ceased because its production, use and possession
were banned.”
“Some lucky ones had purchased gold in 2014 and sold it when it reached $40,000 per ounce in 2019. By then, inflation was out of control and the power elites knew that all confidence in paper currencies had been lost.”
“The only way to preserve wealth through the Panic of 2018 was to have gold, land and fine art. But
investors not only needed to have the foresight to buy it… they also
had to be nimble enough to sell the gold before the confiscation in 2020, and then buy more land and art and hang onto it. For that reason, many lost everything.”
“Land and personal property were not confiscated, because much of it was needed for living arrangements and agriculture.”
“Stock and bond trading were halted when
the markets closed. During the panic selling after the crash of 2018,
stocks were wiped out. Too, the value of all bonds were wiped out in the
hyperinflation of 2019.”
“Wiped-out savers broke out in money riots
soon after but were quickly suppressed by militarized police who used
drones, night vision technology, body armor and electronic
surveillance.”
“To facilitate the gradual freezing of
markets, confiscation of wealth and creation of Social Units, world
governments coordinated the elimination of cash in 2016. The “cashless
society” was sold to citizens as a convenience. No more dirty, grubby
coins and bills to carry around!”
“Instead, you could pay with smart cards and mobile phones and could transfer funds online.”
“By last year, 2023, free markets, private
property and entrepreneurship were things of the past. All that remains
of wealth is land, fine art and some (illegal) gold. The only other
valuable assets are individual talents, provided you can deploy them
outside the system of state-approved jobs.”
————————————————————————————————–
My added comments:
The first thing to say is that I don’t think that Jim Rickards is
trying to say ALL the things in this article will happen by 2024. I
think he is just challenging readers to think about the future and
realize that current trends are leading towards an end to the monetary
system we have known. Also, that major change is likely coming. It just
so happens that is the theme of this blog so, naturally we find this
article of interest.
While the article talks about an end to
free markets and a global centralized power structure, that certainly
does not have to be how things change. None of us can know the future
with certaintly and I feel like Jim Rickards would agree with that. But I
think he does want people to understand that in history governments
have tended to react to crisis by using power to maintain order.
Hopefully that kind of world will be avoided, but more centralized power
cannot be ruled out as a response if there is another huge global
financial crisis.
However, what I would like to focus on in
this article are the parts I underlined in bold above. In the world of
2024, Jim describes a global central bank (he says the former IMF) as
using the SDR currency for transactions between countries. He notes that
everday citizens are still using the three system approved currencies
(the dollar, the Euro, and an Asian currency he calls the RuAsia). Later
he says citizens can make payments with smart cards and mobile phones
and make fund transfers online.
This interests me because I have covered on this very blog the GSD currency being developed by Klickex. We
have noted here that the GSD technology could someday potentially
become a currency that could allow the “inside the system SDR” to link
to an “outside the system” currency for use by everyday citizens.
Klickex has already developed the technology that allows for real time
foreign currency transactions in the South Pacific. They have stated
that the purpose of the GSD is to stabilize foreign currency
transactions to reduce or eliminate risk in those transactions. They
have stated they are working with the global banking system on this.
Currently, Klickex technology makes it possible to transfer funds
online in real time across national boundaries using only a mobile phone
(and do foreign currency exchange in real time as well). So that part
of Jim’s 2024 world is already here in the South Pacific with plans to
grow globally. We should make
it clear that Klickex in no way envisions its technology to be used as a
control mechanism like Jim Rickards talks about in his fictional
article. But what he talks about in regards to money transfer technology already exists today. This part of his article caught our attention since we have covered it here extensively.
Lastly, note that Jim describes a future
world where gold has been confiscated. This is a topic of much debate
these days. Again, none of us know what will really happen in the
future. I did think it would be interesting to ask Jim if he had any
thoughts about how silver would be viewed in his fictional 2024 world so
I asked him about that by email.
Readers may find it interesting that Jim
replied and said that this article was not really a forecast (more of a
thought piece) and he had not really given silver much consideraton. But
he added that because silver is more plentiful than gold and has many
industrial uses, he did not think any future governments would be
interested in trying to confiscate silver. Many readers will find that
comment interesting.
While I don’t take this Jim Rickards
article for more than it was intended (just an article to challenge
people to think), I do think it should cause people to do what we
propose here. Stay informed, take the idea of potential monetary system
change seriously, watch for signs of change, and make some reasonable
preparations for potential change. The more people that do that, the
better off we will all be in 2024.
2014年6月14日星期六
Financial Collapse and Massive Shortages in Gold Coming
Financial expert and best-selling author James Rickards’ latest book predicts “the coming collapse of the international monetary system.” One of thesign posts is countries like Russiadeclaring it will shed the U.S. Dollar as reserve currency in international trade. Rickards explains, “Putin said he envisions a Eurasian economic zone involving Eastern Europe, central Asia and Russia. The Russian Ruble is nowhere near ready to be a global reserve currency, but it could be a regional reserve currency.”
Rickards’ latest best-selling book, “The Death of Money,” was released in April. Even Rickards is surprised at how fast the economic situation is unfolding.Rickards says, “If you ask me what has happened since you finished writing the book that comes as a surprise, I would say a lot of the things I talk about in my book are happening faster than I would have expected. Things that I thought would happen in the 2015 or 2016 time frame seems to be happening now in some ways. If anything, the tempo of events is faster than expected. Therefore, some of these catastrophic outcomes may come sooner than I wrote about.”
Rickards goes on to say, “Right now, we are on the precipice now. When you are on the precipice, it doesn’t mean you fall off immediately, but you are going to fall off because you can see the forces in play. What I tell clients and investors is it’s not as if we are going to make some mistakes and some bad things are going to happen. The mistakes have already been made. The instability is already in the system. We’re just waiting for that catalyst that I call the snowflake that starts the avalanche. You don’t worry about the snowflakes; you worry about the snow and that it’s unstable and it’s just waiting to collapse. That’s what the system is right now; we are just waiting for a catalyst. People ask me all the time, what could it be? Technically, my answer is it doesn’t matter because it will be something. It could be a failure to deliver physical gold. It could be an MF Global financial failure. It could be a natural disaster. It could be a lot of things. The thing investors need to understand is the catalyst doesn’t matter. It’s coming because the instability is already there.”
On gold manipulation and when it will end, Rickards says, “It will end when the physical shortage gets to the point that someone fails to deliver; which, at that point, there will be a buying panic. There could be a buying panic or what some people call a demand shock. One of the things I said about gold manipulation is if I was the manipulator, I would be embarrassed at this point. The manipulation is obvious. The evidence is coming in from all directions. . . . The manipulation is clear. When will it end? It will end when there is a physical shortage that pops up somewhere, or it will end with a short squeeze.”
Rickards goes on to say, “We are going to get a very large demand shock coming from China and India. Let me explain those two cases. We have a brand new government in India, and they are going to repeal the import tax on gold. We also have the wedding season coming up. . . . So, India is set up for a very large surge in demand in the fourth quarter. Now, over to China, this is one of the things that it’s happening faster than I originally thought. The credit collapse story is happening in real time. I said (in my book) this might be a 2015 event, but it looks like it is happening now. Defaults are piling up. We are seeing money rise. We’re seeing people march down to the banks . . . trying to get their money back. . . . So, if they can’t buy foreign stocks, domestic stocks, don’t want to put their money in the bank and are getting out of real estate, then what’s left? The answer is gold. . . . I see a demand shock coming from China. . . . You could see a scramble to buy gold. It is going on anyway, but you could see it accelerate. That will take down the manipulation. Once the markets prevail over the manipulators, then watch out.”
Rickards says the collapse will happen, but he is not sure of when it will come. Rickards explains, “It is the thing you won’t see coming that will take the system down. Things happen much more quickly than what investors expect.” Rickards adds, “What will happen in gold is that it will chug along and then all of a sudden–boom. It will be up $100 an ounce, and then the next day it will be up another $200 an ounce. Then everyone will be on TV saying it’s a bubble—boom. It’s up $300 an ounce, and before you know it, it will be up $1,000 per ounce. Then people will say gee, I better get some gold, and they’ll find out they can’t get it because the big guy will get it. You know, like central banks and sovereign wealth funds will be able to get the gold. The typical investor will run down to the coin shop and they will be sold out, and the U.S. Mint will say sorry, we’re not shipping. You’re going to find out you can’t get it because the whole thing is set up for massive shortages in supply.”
Rickards’ latest best-selling book, “The Death of Money,” was released in April. Even Rickards is surprised at how fast the economic situation is unfolding.Rickards says, “If you ask me what has happened since you finished writing the book that comes as a surprise, I would say a lot of the things I talk about in my book are happening faster than I would have expected. Things that I thought would happen in the 2015 or 2016 time frame seems to be happening now in some ways. If anything, the tempo of events is faster than expected. Therefore, some of these catastrophic outcomes may come sooner than I wrote about.”
Rickards goes on to say, “Right now, we are on the precipice now. When you are on the precipice, it doesn’t mean you fall off immediately, but you are going to fall off because you can see the forces in play. What I tell clients and investors is it’s not as if we are going to make some mistakes and some bad things are going to happen. The mistakes have already been made. The instability is already in the system. We’re just waiting for that catalyst that I call the snowflake that starts the avalanche. You don’t worry about the snowflakes; you worry about the snow and that it’s unstable and it’s just waiting to collapse. That’s what the system is right now; we are just waiting for a catalyst. People ask me all the time, what could it be? Technically, my answer is it doesn’t matter because it will be something. It could be a failure to deliver physical gold. It could be an MF Global financial failure. It could be a natural disaster. It could be a lot of things. The thing investors need to understand is the catalyst doesn’t matter. It’s coming because the instability is already there.”
On gold manipulation and when it will end, Rickards says, “It will end when the physical shortage gets to the point that someone fails to deliver; which, at that point, there will be a buying panic. There could be a buying panic or what some people call a demand shock. One of the things I said about gold manipulation is if I was the manipulator, I would be embarrassed at this point. The manipulation is obvious. The evidence is coming in from all directions. . . . The manipulation is clear. When will it end? It will end when there is a physical shortage that pops up somewhere, or it will end with a short squeeze.”
Rickards goes on to say, “We are going to get a very large demand shock coming from China and India. Let me explain those two cases. We have a brand new government in India, and they are going to repeal the import tax on gold. We also have the wedding season coming up. . . . So, India is set up for a very large surge in demand in the fourth quarter. Now, over to China, this is one of the things that it’s happening faster than I originally thought. The credit collapse story is happening in real time. I said (in my book) this might be a 2015 event, but it looks like it is happening now. Defaults are piling up. We are seeing money rise. We’re seeing people march down to the banks . . . trying to get their money back. . . . So, if they can’t buy foreign stocks, domestic stocks, don’t want to put their money in the bank and are getting out of real estate, then what’s left? The answer is gold. . . . I see a demand shock coming from China. . . . You could see a scramble to buy gold. It is going on anyway, but you could see it accelerate. That will take down the manipulation. Once the markets prevail over the manipulators, then watch out.”
Rickards says the collapse will happen, but he is not sure of when it will come. Rickards explains, “It is the thing you won’t see coming that will take the system down. Things happen much more quickly than what investors expect.” Rickards adds, “What will happen in gold is that it will chug along and then all of a sudden–boom. It will be up $100 an ounce, and then the next day it will be up another $200 an ounce. Then everyone will be on TV saying it’s a bubble—boom. It’s up $300 an ounce, and before you know it, it will be up $1,000 per ounce. Then people will say gee, I better get some gold, and they’ll find out they can’t get it because the big guy will get it. You know, like central banks and sovereign wealth funds will be able to get the gold. The typical investor will run down to the coin shop and they will be sold out, and the U.S. Mint will say sorry, we’re not shipping. You’re going to find out you can’t get it because the whole thing is set up for massive shortages in supply.”
2014年5月30日星期五
《貨幣戰爭》作者新作預測：黃金大量短缺時代將來臨
Rickards解釋稱，普京表示這個展望的亞歐經濟地區包括東歐、中亞和俄羅斯。俄羅斯盧布現在遠不能作為全球儲備貨幣，但是可以作為一個地區儲備貨幣。
Rickards在其新作《金錢之死》中表示，對經濟形勢演變如此之快感到非常驚訝。有一些其認為在2015年或者2016年框架時間範圍內的事，現在已經發生了。那麼接下來，那些災難性事件的最終到來也會比他預期的更快。
關於黃金跌勢何時結束，Rickards表示，黃金的跌勢將在實物金出現短缺、部分人無法交付訂單的的時候結束。那個時候市場將出現買入性恐慌，也有一部分人將其稱為需求地震。
Rickards表示，中國和印度將出現一次大的需求衝擊。新的印度政府正在考慮撤銷過高的黃金進口稅，同時婚禮季節也要來了。因此，印度的黃金需求可能會在四季度出現激增。
Rickards，另一方面，中國——另外一個發展速度超過其最初預期的國家——的信貸崩潰正在進行中。原本預計這是可能發生在2015年的事，但目前看來現在就發生了。信貸違約增加，人們不想把錢放在銀行，如果不能參與國外的股市交易，也不想參與國內股市，又要擺脫房地產，那麼錢會流向哪裡？毫無疑問是黃金。預計中國的黃金需求將出現需求地震。人們將爭端恐後的買入。
Rickards表示，崩潰在不遠的將來就會發生，不過不能確定會在何時來臨。事情的發展將超過投資者的預期，黃金價格可能會迅速飆升，一下漲個100美元、200美元、300美元甚至上千元。因此在能夠買到黃金的時候還是應該買些黃金，因為不少“大傢伙”正在買入黃金，比如各大央行、主權財富基金。普通的投資者會去商店買入金幣，而之後金幣可能就賣完了，而美國鑄幣局表示我們沒貨了。屆時黃金將出現大量的供應短缺。
http://etfdailynews.com
2014年4月26日星期六
Jim Rickards：投資者應該買入黃金維持財富
Rickards為了印證自己的觀點，近期親自赴瑞士考察，檢視當地黃金加工商的真實情況。瑞士是全球最主要的黃金加工中心，大量黃金從這里被出售到世界各地。
“我和最大的黃金生產商之一的主管見面，他說他們每周生產20噸黃金。”Rickards說，“中國則會購買其中的一半。中國在拋售 美元換取黃金。俄羅斯也因為地緣政治的關係拋出美元，沙特也在拋出美元。”Rickards認為：“如果你偏保守，那么把你美元中的10%拿出來買實物黃 金，如果比較激進，那么拿出20%買。即使貨幣貶值，你還是擁有自己的黃金標準來維持你的財富。”
縱觀金價70年走勢，Jim Rickards認為，有一系列動力，推動金價大幅上漲。Rickards預期金價將來會再漲25倍，目標金價在7，000到9，000美元/盎斯間， “這不是會馬上發生的事情，但也不是10年遠期預測，這會發生在3到5年里，價格會上漲5到6倍。”
而遍觀白銀價格行情，其走勢與金價如影隨形，又由於大量工業消耗的緣故，白銀的波動性常常比黃金大得多。可以推斷，如果由於美元體系崩潰引發金價大漲，銀價肯定會以更大的幅度上漲。國內知名學者郎咸平、宋鴻兵等人正是以此為出發點建議國內投資者多持有實物白銀。
2014年4月22日星期二
China is Worried About the US Dollar --Jim Rickards
And I talk about that in Chapter 9 and Chapter 11 in my book, how they’re using the People’s Liberation Army to smuggle gold into China overland, without going through Hong Kong. So they’re getting all the gold they can and so are others. But there’s been a lot of speculation as to why is China getting all this gold.
Well, they must want a new reserve currency backed by gold. It may end up there, but that’s not what they’re doing in the short run. Here’s the way to think about it. They own $4 trillion of reserves today, mostly in paper assets. Most of that is US dollar denominated and most of that are US Treasury notes. So they’re the biggest creditor of the United States of America.
They actually don’t want to gold to skyrocket. What they want is a strong dollar. Nobody wants a stronger dollar more than China because China owns more dollar securities than anyone else in the world. But they’re worried. They’re fearful that we will inflate the dollar and if you do a 10% inflation of the dollar, you reduce the dollar’s value by 10%.
That’s like a $300 billion wealth transfer from China to the US because their assets are worth less, our liabilities go down, so we’re stealing wealth from China and they know it. Now they can’t dump these treasury securities. There are too many of them. But what they can do is buy gold and here’s how it works.
If we have a stable dollar maybe the gold doesn’t go up that much, but they’ll be very happy with that because their securities will be worth what they think they are. But if we inflate the dollar which we’re trying to do, they’re going to lose money on the paper, but they’re going to make it on the gold.
Because we all know that if inflations comes along gold is going to go up very, very significantly. So in effect they’re creating a hedge position. They’ve got paper over there, gold over here. They would like the paper to be valuable, but if the paper drops in value, the gold is going to go up. So they’re actually building a hedge book.
http://jimrickards.blogspot.hk
2014年4月6日星期日
Financial War Games Being Conducted by the Pentagon
Saturday, April 5, 2014
So I’m probably getting a little better at it. But I’m using the same basic tools. See, that hasn’t changed, but what has changed is that events are actually playing out the way we expected and predicted in Currency Wars. So the new book also has forward projections, so I hope leaders can take that to heart and feel some comfort that they’re looking at the future when they read the new book.
Just to give you a concrete example. In Currency Wars, my first book, the first two chapters talk about a financial war game conducted by the Pentagon at a top secret weapons laboratory outside of Washington D.C. and a lot of readers really enjoyed that chapter. But what we did in that war game, and I was one of the planners and facilitators and I got to participate in the war game.
With some friends, we cooked up a plan whereby Russia and China would pool their gold in a UK bank with a Swiss vault and issue a new currency backed by gold and say “Henceforth, any Russian energy exports or Chinese manufactured goods exports could only be paid for in the new currency. And if you wanted some, you had to deposit your gold and the bank would give you some of the currency.”
In other words, it was a way to turn your back on the dollar and dethrone the dollar as the global reserve currency. So that was something we did in 2009 and frankly, some of the other people there, some of the Harvard types, we were ridiculed and people said, “That’s ridiculous…”
- Source, Sprott Money:
2014年3月28日星期五
中國暗中儲金4000噸尋求IMF特別提款權做儲備貨幣
2014年03月27日 16:22
暢銷書籍《貨幣戰爭》（Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis）的作者Jim Rickards是一名律師、投資銀行家兼風險經理人，他在華爾街工作逾30年，他近日接受媒體採訪時稱，上海正在取代倫敦成為世界黃金交易中心，中國持續大量的購買黃金是為了抵禦美元貶值；人民幣雖然可以成為貿易貨幣但離儲備貨幣還有很長的距離，中國眼下追求的是IMF特別提款權以代替美元作為儲備。
對於中國市場傳言中國在暗中儲備黃金一事，Rickards稱：我與全球最大黃金精煉廠的貴金屬業務負責人會過面。他近來擴充了工廠產能，並在廠區開闢了一處全新的區域，展開高度自動化的黃金生產作業。此外，他還安排工人三班上工，工廠每天24小時加班工作。
他們每週製造20噸的黃金，其中一半產量運送至中國。換言之，一星期10噸，一年共約有500噸。然而，這只是一間黃金精煉廠的產能，尚未涵蓋其他的工廠，全部加總起來的黃金，總數量極為可觀。工廠負責人說： “我盡全力生產黃金，工廠每天24小時運作，並運送所有的黃金至中國，一年共500噸，但這仍難以填補中國客戶的胃口。”
他還說，中國客戶還想要更多的黃金，因為還有其他固定客戶，無法滿足他們的需要。這間工廠有勞力士手錶和其他高資產人士及機構等長期客戶，他無法斷然拒絕老客戶的訂單。
Rickards認為為何會有這麼多黃金的來源主要是由金礦開採、舊金回收和400盎司重的金條。中國當局基本上並不理會倫敦黃金市場的標準，而是重新設立了新的精煉規格。現在倫敦金的標準是400盎司重，純度為99%，而中國新的規格為1公斤重，純度為99.99%的金條。
因此，黃金精煉工廠把400盎司重且純度為99%的金條，精煉成1公斤重且純度是99.99%，這是中國客戶的唯一要求。
此外，Rickards認為上海黃金交易所正逐漸取代倫敦，將成為世界黃金交易的中心，因為目前，國際貨幣體系立基於脆弱的紙貨幣，易於崩潰，一旦這個系統需要進一步改革，手中黃金最多的人自然可取得決定權。
但即使中國當局瘋狂買黃金，以黃金作為貨幣發行準備的比例目前仍較美國為低。 Rickards認為中國當局已暗中收購3000或4000噸的黃金，而且會持續買進黃金。
不過Rickards不認為中國具有供應全球儲備貨幣的能力，比如中國不願開放資本賬戶（capital account）就是一大阻礙，雖然人民幣作為貿易貨幣（trade currency）的用途日漸擴增，但貿易貨幣和儲備貨幣兩者之間的差異還是很大的。
舉巴西和中國為例，巴西同意以人民幣交易巴西貨物，而中國願意收取里拉，賣出商品給巴西，這是不錯的交易機制。雙方只是記錄交易，並逐漸付清貨款，這就是貿易貨幣。
但要成為儲備貨幣，意味著這些國家的儲備貨幣須有投資的對象，因此，要有龐大可投資的資產管道。中國尚未具備這個條件。中國祇有幾個點心債券（Dim-Sum bond）和其他少數的金融商品，依舊沒有政府債券發行，而政府債券市場需要10至15年來逐步發展。
但發行政府債券的條件不僅如此。中國沒有法治基礎，那麼客戶很難產生對中國當局的信心。所以，綜合這些因素判斷，他們還未達到儲備貨幣的條件。
Rickards認為，其實中國眼下更想要的是特別提款權（Special Drawing Right, SDR）, SDR是各國政府發生國際收支逆差時，可藉此向國際貨幣組織（IMF）指定其它會員國換取外匯，償付國際收支逆差或償還IMF貸款，還可與黃金、自由兌換貨幣般充作國際儲備。 SDR由IMF發行，不是美元，中國正著手游說IMF更多成員國的支持。
中國試圖借錢給IMF，購買SDR，IMF便有資金援助歐洲。同時，他們也運用SDR作為槓桿效用，獲得更多國家支持。由於SDR操作是由會員國進行監管，取得較多選票，中國就可安穩地利用SDR當作儲備貨幣，使中國繼美國之後，成為IMF的第二大成員國。
然而，美國反對這項作法，但IMF總裁拉加德（Christine Lagarde）卻大力提升中國的角色。這是全球性複雜遊戲的角力。
Rickards稱：大多數人會認為他們是將人民幣推至儲備貨幣的地位。實則不然，他們要推動的是SDR。
關於那美國將採取何種動作，償還中國購買的美國國債，Rickards稱：美國要做的就是讓貨幣貶值，能用便宜的美元償還國債。
這背後的實質意義是，中國的財富將轉移給美國，中國將完全處於劣勢，而這正是中國當局購買黃金主因，藉以抵銷美元貶值的損失。如此一來，美元開始貶值，黃金的價格便會上揚，雖然帳面上中國蒙受損失，卻可在黃金取得補償。
2014年3月26日星期三
貨幣戰爭》作者：明年中國將公開5000噸黃金儲備
《貨幣戰爭》作者、West Shore Group組合投資經理Jim Rickards在最近的一次採訪中做出驚人預測。 他預計，“中國將會在2015年早些時候，對外公佈其擁有超過5000噸的黃金儲備。”
軍用通道購金？ 中國還將狂掃2000噸
根據世界黃金協會（WGC）2013年度報告，中國黃金需求已經成為世界第一。 但中國央行（PBOC）最新更新的儲備信息，依然保持在1065噸。
Rickards對此表示，“有多重消息稱中國在秘密儲備黃金。沒人知道具體數據。中國對於進口、國內產出、以及央行儲備數據都不透明。”
Rickards指出，“包括我在內的許多分析師都在用不完整的數據進行預測。但我們可以確定，一部分黃金通過軍用渠道進入中國，並且沒有進行任何申報。因此，所有分析師的預測，都可能低估 。”
關於中國黃金儲備的預測，Rickards給出他的觀點，“ 中國對黃金儲備的目標可能在5000噸或更高 。目前中國擁有至少3000噸，我預計在2015年早些時候，中國將會宣布其擁有超過5000噸黃金儲備。” 這意味著，中國官方在2014年將繼續購買2000噸黃金 。
不是挑戰、只是抗衡
中國官方如此瘋狂 囤積黃金，是否為挑戰美元霸主地位？ 對此，Rickards很乾脆的予以否定。
Rickards聲稱，“成為全球儲備貨幣，需要開放資本賬戶，這是（至少目前）中國不希望的；另外還需要成熟的法規、流通性好的債券市場和金融對沖工具，這些都是中國不具備的。”
綜上所述，Rickards給出結論，“ 人民幣至少在10年內，甚至更長時間，無法成為儲備貨幣 。中國也深知這一點。”
Rickards進而指出，“ 中國購買黃金，主要是為了對沖美元資產風險 。中國青睞強勢美元，因為其擁有超過3萬億的美元資產。如果美元貶值，或者美國引發通脹 ，那麼黃金會是最好的對沖。”
重申黃金將“坐火箭”
在採訪的尾聲，Rickards重申了其對黃金價格非常樂觀的目標。
他認為，歐美製裁俄羅斯，距離金融戰的程度還很遠，雙方也都不會將事態發展到那個層面。 實物需求和（西方）央行操縱的博弈仍是黃金價格的關鍵。
一旦操縱的把戲被更多人識破，1-2年內黃金升至3000美元/盎司並不奇怪。
Rickards說道，“如果想要重建國際貨幣體系的信心，黃金將最終升至9000美元/盎司，甚至更高。”
軍用通道購金？ 中國還將狂掃2000噸
根據世界黃金協會（WGC）2013年度報告，中國黃金需求已經成為世界第一。 但中國央行（PBOC）最新更新的儲備信息，依然保持在1065噸。
Rickards對此表示，“有多重消息稱中國在秘密儲備黃金。沒人知道具體數據。中國對於進口、國內產出、以及央行儲備數據都不透明。”
Rickards指出，“包括我在內的許多分析師都在用不完整的數據進行預測。但我們可以確定，一部分黃金通過軍用渠道進入中國，並且沒有進行任何申報。因此，所有分析師的預測，都可能低估 。”
關於中國黃金儲備的預測，Rickards給出他的觀點，“ 中國對黃金儲備的目標可能在5000噸或更高 。目前中國擁有至少3000噸，我預計在2015年早些時候，中國將會宣布其擁有超過5000噸黃金儲備。” 這意味著，中國官方在2014年將繼續購買2000噸黃金 。
不是挑戰、只是抗衡
中國官方如此瘋狂 囤積黃金，是否為挑戰美元霸主地位？ 對此，Rickards很乾脆的予以否定。
Rickards聲稱，“成為全球儲備貨幣，需要開放資本賬戶，這是（至少目前）中國不希望的；另外還需要成熟的法規、流通性好的債券市場和金融對沖工具，這些都是中國不具備的。”
綜上所述，Rickards給出結論，“ 人民幣至少在10年內，甚至更長時間，無法成為儲備貨幣 。中國也深知這一點。”
Rickards進而指出，“ 中國購買黃金，主要是為了對沖美元資產風險 。中國青睞強勢美元，因為其擁有超過3萬億的美元資產。如果美元貶值，或者美國引發通脹 ，那麼黃金會是最好的對沖。”
重申黃金將“坐火箭”
在採訪的尾聲，Rickards重申了其對黃金價格非常樂觀的目標。
他認為，歐美製裁俄羅斯，距離金融戰的程度還很遠，雙方也都不會將事態發展到那個層面。 實物需求和（西方）央行操縱的博弈仍是黃金價格的關鍵。
一旦操縱的把戲被更多人識破，1-2年內黃金升至3000美元/盎司並不奇怪。
Rickards說道，“如果想要重建國際貨幣體系的信心，黃金將最終升至9000美元/盎司，甚至更高。”
2014年3月15日星期六
Gold Purchased by the Chinese Will Not be Seen Again for 300 Years
There is a total supply of gold in the world. But to corner a market or squeeze a market, you don’t need to buy all the gold, you just need to buy the floating supply. Think of all the gold in the world, it’s about 170,000 tons. Think of a little sliver on top of it that is the floating supply available for trading.
Gold that’s in the Comex or JPMorgan or GLD vaults is available for trading. Gold purchased by the Chinese will not see the light of day again for the next 300 years, and is not available for trading. So with the gold going from West to East, and from GLD to China, the total amount of gold is unchanged, but the floating supply is declining rapidly.
This means that the paper gold that sits on top of the floating supply is becoming more and more unstable and vulnerable to a short squeeze, because there is not enough physical gold to support it. So that’s likely to collapse at one point and lead to a short squeeze and heavy buying.
- Jim Rickards via:
2014年2月19日星期三
金 金 金
石SIR近期講多幾句關於廢鐵文章.....
點石成金 - 石鏡泉 2014年2月19日
今日文題：「金金金」是有點偷人家概念，禪話有：「見山是山，再見山不是山，再再見山是山」，同樣今時：「見金是金，再見金不是金，再再見金是金」。此中這個「金。金。金」有何啟示？
百年前，金是貨幣之一，到70年代其貨幣功能因美國不再許美元換金而被廢，再些年後金又可能再具貨幣功能，若是屆時金價或會是7,000至10,000美元一盎司。作這估計的人是《貨幣戰爭》作者Jim Richards。
Rickards的目標金價在7,000到9,000美元/盎司間，「這不是會馬上發生的事情，但也不是十年遠期預測，這會發生在三到五年裏，價格會上漲五到六倍。」
Rickards稱自己的分析是基於美元等貨幣信心的崩塌而來的。「要使貨幣重獲市場信心有兩種方式，要麼通過世界貨幣基金組織(IMF)以特別提款權(SDRs)的方式來增加流動性，要麼重新回到金本位。」
「用SDR的方式將會帶來高通脹，」Rickards說，「那麼金價就會被推高。如果回到金本位，那麼就將要帶來通縮。」因為世界上沒有足夠的黃金。但Rickards認為，世界上有的是足夠的黃金，只是問題在價格上。
「1,300美元/盎司的金價不足以支撐全球貿易和金融，但如果金價到10,000美元/盎司的水平，就有足夠黃金了。故這不是黃金量的問題，是價格的問題。」
大行金庫存量已偏低
2013年金價大跌跟黃金ETF(GLD)有關，不是跟金有關。「當人們買GLD的時候，他們不是買入或者賣出黃金，他們是在買入或者買入股份。」
「那 些在倉庫中的黃金只有一些經過授權的參與者才能獲得，而這些參與者基本又是那些大行，高盛(Goldman Sachs)、花旗(Citigroup)、摩根大通(JPMorgan)、摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)、德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank)和?豐銀行(HSBC)等。」
因此，Rickards認為，在央行操控金價以及這些大行拋售實物黃金的作用下，很大量的黃金被投入到市場上，為Comex帶來了很大的售出壓力。使到2013年金價下跌。
「所 以這是很多不良因素合在了一起，但問題在於這是不會持久的。」他們的金庫是不能被清空的，很多大行的金庫存量已很低，Rickards稱諸如瑞銀集團 (UBS)、瑞士信貸(Credit Suisse)和德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank)等金庫中的黃金都在被移至諸如G4S、ViaMAT和Brink"s等私人金庫中。「這並未增加黃金的供應量，但卻減少了交易的浮動供給。」
「全 球黃金總供應量是有限的，但要對市場產生影響，不用買下所有黃金，只要買下浮動供給就可以。全球大約有17萬噸黃金，其中只有一點是可被交易的浮動供 給，」Rickards說，「Comex或者摩根大通或者GLD金庫中的黃金是可以被用來交易的。而被中國買走的黃金可能幾百年都見不到天日，也不會被交 易。所以黃金在從西方向東方流，在從GLD流向中國。黃金總量沒有改變，但浮動供給量在迅速下降。」
Rickards認為這使得紙黃金愈來愈脆弱，因為沒有足夠的實物黃金在背後支撐，「因此會在某一時刻崩塌，並且引發大量買入實金。」
美鈔購買力與日俱跌
近月金價上升，會否就是這波實金買浪之始？
Richards為2013年的金價波動作了解釋之餘亦闡明了金價如爆升，是因為人們對貨幣失去信心，屆時市場有兩條路可走，1) 用IMF的SAR；2) 用金本位。
而這就是筆者的金。金。金。
美 國一直在印銀紙，說得坦白，是在印由美國政府印出來的「假」美鈔，之所以謂假，是因為這些美鈔是超量發行，其購買力將與日俱跌，到跌到某一日，當市場出現 集體厭惡時，一拋出來，美元的貶值速度，可以驚人。這並不是靠嚇，也不是生安白做，在1900年代，一英鎊可兌六至七美元，今時只能兌1.6美元左右，少 了一大截，是因為二次大戰使英國由日不落國變成斜陽帝國，以前因有龐大殖民地的被迫需求，使英鎊價昂，迄至60年代初，一英鎊還是被官價定為兌16港元， 但隨著大英帝國力弱，英鎊價不能不回歸現實，取之而代的是美元、日圓。這個英鎊的「失勢」、「貶值」過程不是一年兩年，而是在百年中出現了。
如 果美元「失勢」、「貶值」又是要用上百年，則筆者此文是多餘，因為筆者冇命見，相信各位讀者也無百年命去等，然這是十倍速年代，百年所競之事，可以在十年 內見到，《貨幣戰爭》作者Richards認為會在三、五年內發生，筆者則謂會在2020年之前發生，因為屆時人民幣應會國際化，再加上歐元回穩，俄羅斯 和伊朗出來搞搞局，今時美元的貨幣霸主地位，將受挑戰。當世界上的毒販和軍火商都怕所收到的美元貶值可能性時，並肯收歐元、人民幣時，美元的貶值速度將會 提速，一旦啟動，這個雪球滾動，將會帶出雪崩。
黃金或被重納作貨幣
筆者這個美元失勢估計，是有很多：「如果」、「一旦」、 「將」、「可能」的不肯定性詞，是因為美國不是英國，美國仍有11個航空母艦戰鬥群，有N架F35和一小時環球打擊部隊，更重要的是美國有個華爾街團隊， 在軍事、金融力量上，今日仍是世難匹敵者，美國是不會坐以待斃，在軍隊未出動前，美國已經早早在外交、商業、通訊、能源、糧食等環節上掀起了全面的美元 保衛戰。
美國政府一定不會有個美元保衛戰的誓師大會，在國際爭鬥的暗戰中，有很多場戰事，是打定了輸贏也不會宣之於口，當然亦有些話會 做的事，到真要做時，也未必做，作為個小投資者，如果你只醉心於明天股市、金市、匯市上搵多少的，大家可以參考兩周前筆者的出入市錦囊(其實是自2013 年以來一直沿用的)便是，揀合條件之股伺機而買便是，但如果想將這些賺到好利潤，留到2020年前後作退休用時，或要參考筆者上周的一系列重刊的舊文，又 或是這幾天及明天，講金的文章。這些文章有兩個重點：
1)美國在打美元保衛戰的筆者陰謀論。
2)金的貨幣功能，在70年被美國政府公然拋棄後，或將會覆水重收，並納為正室，
明天續。
點石成金 - 石鏡泉 2014年2月19日
今日文題：「金金金」是有點偷人家概念，禪話有：「見山是山，再見山不是山，再再見山是山」，同樣今時：「見金是金，再見金不是金，再再見金是金」。此中這個「金。金。金」有何啟示？
百年前，金是貨幣之一，到70年代其貨幣功能因美國不再許美元換金而被廢，再些年後金又可能再具貨幣功能，若是屆時金價或會是7,000至10,000美元一盎司。作這估計的人是《貨幣戰爭》作者Jim Richards。
Rickards的目標金價在7,000到9,000美元/盎司間，「這不是會馬上發生的事情，但也不是十年遠期預測，這會發生在三到五年裏，價格會上漲五到六倍。」
Rickards稱自己的分析是基於美元等貨幣信心的崩塌而來的。「要使貨幣重獲市場信心有兩種方式，要麼通過世界貨幣基金組織(IMF)以特別提款權(SDRs)的方式來增加流動性，要麼重新回到金本位。」
「用SDR的方式將會帶來高通脹，」Rickards說，「那麼金價就會被推高。如果回到金本位，那麼就將要帶來通縮。」因為世界上沒有足夠的黃金。但Rickards認為，世界上有的是足夠的黃金，只是問題在價格上。
「1,300美元/盎司的金價不足以支撐全球貿易和金融，但如果金價到10,000美元/盎司的水平，就有足夠黃金了。故這不是黃金量的問題，是價格的問題。」
大行金庫存量已偏低
2013年金價大跌跟黃金ETF(GLD)有關，不是跟金有關。「當人們買GLD的時候，他們不是買入或者賣出黃金，他們是在買入或者買入股份。」
「那 些在倉庫中的黃金只有一些經過授權的參與者才能獲得，而這些參與者基本又是那些大行，高盛(Goldman Sachs)、花旗(Citigroup)、摩根大通(JPMorgan)、摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)、德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank)和?豐銀行(HSBC)等。」
因此，Rickards認為，在央行操控金價以及這些大行拋售實物黃金的作用下，很大量的黃金被投入到市場上，為Comex帶來了很大的售出壓力。使到2013年金價下跌。
「所 以這是很多不良因素合在了一起，但問題在於這是不會持久的。」他們的金庫是不能被清空的，很多大行的金庫存量已很低，Rickards稱諸如瑞銀集團 (UBS)、瑞士信貸(Credit Suisse)和德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank)等金庫中的黃金都在被移至諸如G4S、ViaMAT和Brink"s等私人金庫中。「這並未增加黃金的供應量，但卻減少了交易的浮動供給。」
「全 球黃金總供應量是有限的，但要對市場產生影響，不用買下所有黃金，只要買下浮動供給就可以。全球大約有17萬噸黃金，其中只有一點是可被交易的浮動供 給，」Rickards說，「Comex或者摩根大通或者GLD金庫中的黃金是可以被用來交易的。而被中國買走的黃金可能幾百年都見不到天日，也不會被交 易。所以黃金在從西方向東方流，在從GLD流向中國。黃金總量沒有改變，但浮動供給量在迅速下降。」
Rickards認為這使得紙黃金愈來愈脆弱，因為沒有足夠的實物黃金在背後支撐，「因此會在某一時刻崩塌，並且引發大量買入實金。」
美鈔購買力與日俱跌
近月金價上升，會否就是這波實金買浪之始？
Richards為2013年的金價波動作了解釋之餘亦闡明了金價如爆升，是因為人們對貨幣失去信心，屆時市場有兩條路可走，1) 用IMF的SAR；2) 用金本位。
而這就是筆者的金。金。金。
美 國一直在印銀紙，說得坦白，是在印由美國政府印出來的「假」美鈔，之所以謂假，是因為這些美鈔是超量發行，其購買力將與日俱跌，到跌到某一日，當市場出現 集體厭惡時，一拋出來，美元的貶值速度，可以驚人。這並不是靠嚇，也不是生安白做，在1900年代，一英鎊可兌六至七美元，今時只能兌1.6美元左右，少 了一大截，是因為二次大戰使英國由日不落國變成斜陽帝國，以前因有龐大殖民地的被迫需求，使英鎊價昂，迄至60年代初，一英鎊還是被官價定為兌16港元， 但隨著大英帝國力弱，英鎊價不能不回歸現實，取之而代的是美元、日圓。這個英鎊的「失勢」、「貶值」過程不是一年兩年，而是在百年中出現了。
如 果美元「失勢」、「貶值」又是要用上百年，則筆者此文是多餘，因為筆者冇命見，相信各位讀者也無百年命去等，然這是十倍速年代，百年所競之事，可以在十年 內見到，《貨幣戰爭》作者Richards認為會在三、五年內發生，筆者則謂會在2020年之前發生，因為屆時人民幣應會國際化，再加上歐元回穩，俄羅斯 和伊朗出來搞搞局，今時美元的貨幣霸主地位，將受挑戰。當世界上的毒販和軍火商都怕所收到的美元貶值可能性時，並肯收歐元、人民幣時，美元的貶值速度將會 提速，一旦啟動，這個雪球滾動，將會帶出雪崩。
黃金或被重納作貨幣
筆者這個美元失勢估計，是有很多：「如果」、「一旦」、 「將」、「可能」的不肯定性詞，是因為美國不是英國，美國仍有11個航空母艦戰鬥群，有N架F35和一小時環球打擊部隊，更重要的是美國有個華爾街團隊， 在軍事、金融力量上，今日仍是世難匹敵者，美國是不會坐以待斃，在軍隊未出動前，美國已經早早在外交、商業、通訊、能源、糧食等環節上掀起了全面的美元 保衛戰。
美國政府一定不會有個美元保衛戰的誓師大會，在國際爭鬥的暗戰中，有很多場戰事，是打定了輸贏也不會宣之於口，當然亦有些話會 做的事，到真要做時，也未必做，作為個小投資者，如果你只醉心於明天股市、金市、匯市上搵多少的，大家可以參考兩周前筆者的出入市錦囊(其實是自2013 年以來一直沿用的)便是，揀合條件之股伺機而買便是，但如果想將這些賺到好利潤，留到2020年前後作退休用時，或要參考筆者上周的一系列重刊的舊文，又 或是這幾天及明天，講金的文章。這些文章有兩個重點：
1)美國在打美元保衛戰的筆者陰謀論。
2)金的貨幣功能，在70年被美國政府公然拋棄後，或將會覆水重收，並納為正室，
明天續。
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