"軟掛鉤金本位“回歸已不可逆轉

張庭賓



    獨立的判斷需要堅持的勇氣。

    一個的周期是3個月。 2011年4月29日，本專欄刊發《美元貨幣霸主地位加速解體》判斷：量化寬鬆3.0已經成為定局，所剩懸念的只是規模而已。這是一個獨立而孤獨的聲音，因為當時大部分國際投行和經濟學家均否認量化寬鬆3.0的可能性，美聯儲也一再否認3.0的需要。

    7月13日，伯南克出席眾議院半年貨幣政策聽證會時首次承認，如果美國經濟增速下滑，通縮風險重現，聯儲已準備好推出新的貨幣刺激政策，而QE3在考慮之列。而美國民主黨總統奧巴馬正與共和黨控制的國會激烈博弈，以試圖在8月2日前達成妥協，在舊的13.29萬億美國國債已完全用光之後，國會批准新的發行美國國債的額度，美聯儲再直接印鈔票買國債——QE3。如果妥協打不成，即意味著美國國債違約，而外國債權人——比如中國將首當其衝。

    另一個週期是5年。 2006年5月11日，筆者撰文《730美元地基之上：黃金王朝開始復闢》首次提出，在未來5-10年，隨著紙幣競爭的加劇，金本位有可能回歸，並不斷呼籲中國央行大規模增加黃金、石油等大宗商品儲備，減少外儲中美國國債的比例。 5年來，筆者幾十次提示金本位回歸的最新進展，強調金本位回歸的兩個標誌：一是金價上漲到每盎司5000美元；二是某一種紙幣實施舊紙幣與新發行的含金量紙幣同時流通。

    5年來，為堅持這個獨立的戰略遠見，本人可謂備受各種質疑和壓力，但從未退縮。現在終於堅持接近水落石出——瑞士“金法郎”行將誕生的時刻。

    7月8日傳來消息，瑞士議會將於今年晚些時候討論創立與現行貨幣瑞士法郎平行的金法郎的可能性，這種“金法郎”每個含金量為0.1克，將根據國際金價浮動，並由市場決定它與現行瑞士法郎的比價關係。

    這有點類似當年國民黨時期的法幣和金圓券同時流通。不同的是，禁止民間擁有黃金，強制國民以黃金兌換金圓券，這是蔣介石政府崩潰敗逃之前，無恥搜刮公眾財富的最後手段，也是一個政權徹底喪失其經濟合法性的終結標誌。而金法郎是瑞士政府與公眾恢復了雙向自由選擇的契約。

    “金本位”的本質是紙幣發行者與社會公眾之間的“自由、民主、人權”的雙向契約。即當政府濫發紙幣，公眾有權以紙幣換回黃金的自由，以此遏製紙幣濫發，是為“民主”，體現的是公民最核心的經濟“人權”；而如果紙幣流通短缺，政府也有多印紙幣換回黃金的自由，以此避免通貨緊縮。即交易的雙方都是自由的，是平等的。當1971年，美元拋棄了黃金，即意味著美國背叛了其“自由、民主、人權”的立國之本，只剩下了美元紙幣發行者——美聯儲的單邊霸權——即只要印刷鈔票就可以源源不斷交換別人真實物質財富的特權，這必然導致持續不斷的通貨膨脹，直到紙幣濫發膨脹到為自己掘墓的時刻。

    瑞士之所以很可能成為首個恢復金本位的國家，那是因為瑞士是典型的小政府、大社會，政府權力受到公民權的最廣泛制約。因此。瑞士是最後一個放棄“金本位”的國家——2000年；如果此次金法郎實現，也將是第一個恢復“金本位”的國家。

    這正是筆者數年前指出的“金本位回歸”的直接標誌，當然，這仍需要瑞士議會的批准，也需要修改瑞士憲法。

    不僅如此，歐洲議會正動議恢復黃金在交易所和銀行的清算貨幣地位；美國猶他州通過法律恢復金本位；芝加哥商品交易所和摩根大通恢復了黃金的貨幣功能，享受美元待遇……在美聯儲前主席格林斯潘從未放棄金本位之後，美國前總統克林頓、世界銀行行長佐利克等越來越多的頂尖人士加入呼籲金本位回歸的行列。

    這已經形成一個浩浩蕩蕩的歷史潮流，絕不是最近美國逆流而動——禁止場外OTC市場黃金交易所能抗拒的。這顯然衝擊著紙幣體系最大收益者——美國和美聯儲的最后防線，令伯南克正面臨著巨大到無法承受的壓力。

    在7月13日的國會聽證會上，伯南克除了不得不承認QE3的可能性外，他在面對議員保羅(Ron Paul)咄咄逼人的提問時，已十分被動尷尬。這段對話是這樣的：

    保羅：你認為黃金是貨幣嗎？

    伯南克：（停頓）不，它是貴金屬。

    保羅：它不是貨幣？即便它是貨幣已經有6000年曆史了。有人要反轉，消滅這個經濟法則嗎？

    伯南克：黃金是一種資產。就像美國國債一樣。國債是貨幣嗎？不是，但國債是金融資產。

    保羅：如果黃金不是貨幣那為什麼聯儲會持有它？

    伯南克：它是某種形式的儲備。

    保羅：你們為什麼不持有鑽石？

    伯南克：（怔住）這是一個傳統，長期傳統。

    保羅：有些人仍然認為黃金是貨幣。

    伯南克：……

    保羅是金本位制的擁護者，此人曾經提出一份建議國會對美聯儲的利率決策進行全面審議的議案。他還是《終結美聯儲》一書的作者。他曾於上世紀80年代發起成立聯邦黃金委員會，探討重回金本位的可能性。那時保羅有一位特殊的支持者，他就是艾倫·格林斯潘。

    1997年9月，在亞洲金融危機爆發後，格林斯潘已經擔任美聯儲主席職務10年，他建議美國參議院委員會取消一切經濟管制，取消美聯儲，“這一年來我一直都是想恢復金本位的，這並沒有什麼好奇怪的……當然整個聯邦公開委員會有可能只有一個人投贊成票，那個人就是我。”

    從當年格林斯潘極其孤獨堅持金本位，到如今伯南克相當孤獨地堅持著美元本位最后防線，歷史真的是太幽默了。

    當然，歷史是不是“黑色幽默”並不重要，需要進一步判斷的是，金本位是否已經不可逆轉的來臨？答案是基本肯定的，兩種情況除外：一，歐元解體，中國金融大危機，甚至歐洲和亞洲都陷入戰火；二，2012出現大劫難，人類退回最原始的物物交換。

    假如金本位回歸已經是大概率事件。那麼投資者需要做什麼呢？對，就像本人5年來一直提醒的那樣：放棄你的債券資產，消減你的股票，增加你的實物資產、大宗商品，當然最方便的就是黃金。

    可能有人會懷疑，黃金已經很貴了，上週收盤1593美元，是1999年的低點252美元的6.32倍。但如果按照本人的標準——每盎司5000美元的黃金價格才是金本位基本回歸的標誌。當然，這一定是個反複動蕩的過程，不會一蹴而就。

    最需要提醒的是中國大量的金融機構，特別是保險、證券、基金公司，它們幾乎沒有黃金資產，大宗商品和實物資產也不多。如果金本位真的回歸，將意味著它們陷入系統性風險，甚至是崩潰。

http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_59b377290100sbum.html 

金價新高---睇睇D/G

宋鴻兵 18-7-2011---來年的見證

 就讓我們用一年的時間....看看.一年後情況會怎樣?

轉貼宋鴻兵

今天是7月18日，白银正好40美元，黄金1600！ 白银往上涨到到50美元，与向下跌到30美元，距离相等都是10美元。这可算是个分水岭了！请大家在这里留下你们的判断，一年后，即2012年7月18日 这一天，白银的价格可能是多少？到时候可以排个座次，接受万民敬仰！

7月18日 19:01 來自新浪微博

http://weibo.com/profile.php?uid=1632067682&inviteCode=1632067682 

$1764 Is The Magnet To Watch

http://www.jsmineset.com/
My Dear Friends,
Here are the magnets. The key number is neither $1600 or $1650. The number is $1764.
Regards,
Jim

Turk: 金價破2000美元， 白銀破50美元的時刻將會很快來臨

http://kingworldnews.com/

With gold hitting new all-time highs in all major currencies and silver breaking above $40, today King World News interviewed James Turk.  When asked about the action in gold Turk stated, “I wouldn’t be surprised to see $2,000 (gold) very quickly.  It’s just a question of how the European bank crisis unfolds or the US debt limit unfolds or any one of these number of trouble spots around the world unfolds.  Any one of those could light a fire under the gold market and you could see $2,000 very, very quickly.  You could also see silver over $50 very quickly.  That’s the way the trend is going so just position yourself and ride the trend.”

"It’s all very positive Eric, it’s still within my bigger point of view that the summer is going to be spectacular.  It has started out that way and I still think there is a lot more left.  There are really two types of gold buyers, you’ve got the accumulators and you have the momentum players. 

What the London Trader (KWN interview earlier today) was saying is that the accumulators have basically been out of the market, which is reflected by the discount to spot price on a number of the Asian markets where a lot of the physical accumulation takes place.

Now the interesting thing is you can drive prices higher if either one of those players are in the market, and while the accumulators are out, the momentum buyers are in there.  I still think these momentum buyers are going to take gold and silver much higher and that’s basically what the London Trader was referring to by saying there was going to be a lot of short covering once we get over $40 (in silver) and $1,600 (in gold), which is what we did today on a closing basis in New York.

People are looking for the safety of gold and exiting national currencies.  Exiting the dollar, exiting the euro, exiting the British pound, gold is at record highs against all three of those currencies.”

When asked about Felix Zulauf’s KWN interview where he discussed the simultaneous inflation and deflation Turk said, “If you look in terms of the dollar we are actually seeing inflation, prices are going up all around us.  But if you actually look at prices in terms of gold, prices are going down.  So you’ve got deflation when prices are measured in gold and you’ve got inflation when prices are measured for the dollar.  

We’re in a 1930’s type of situation with regards to deflation, if you measure that deflation in terms of gold.  Gold’s purchasing power went up in the 1930‘s as the huge debts that were accumulated during the boom years of the 1920’s were eventually reconciled.....

“They were either repaid or written off as bad loans.  It’s the same thing that’s going on now, the only difference now is that the dollar is no longer tied to gold as it was back in the 1930’s.

My view is that we still have a long way to go before this bust that we have been in plays itself out.  This boom and bust cycle that we go through in monetary history, you have to look at it from a big picture point of view because it doesn’t happen over weeks or months, it happens over decades.  

For example, in the 1920’s you had the boom, you had the bust in the ’30’s.  In the ’50’s and ’60’s you had the boom, you had the bust in the ’70’s.  In the ’80’s and the ‘90s you had the boom and we are currently in a bust, and this bust is not going to be over until all of the bad loans that were made in the ’80’s and in the ’90’s are eventually reconciled. 

They will be reconciled in one of two ways, they will either be repaid or they will be written off.  While we are going through this financial bust, people should avoid financial assets and focus on tangibles.  That’s the way you are going to get through this bust with as much of your wealth intact as possible.”

When asked about Ben Davies $2,000 target on gold within 4 months Turk responded, “Maybe that $2,000 Ben Davies has talked about is going to be happening pretty soon.  All we need is a little bit of a fuse on any one of these monetary events going on around the world to just put a tidal wave of buying into the precious metals.

 

Because the market is so tight still, any kind of huge buying of physical metal is going to send these prices much higher.  Then if you add in what the London Trader is talking about, short-covering coming in, it’s got the potential for an upside explosion.”

本月黃金交割日還剩8個工作日，未來兩周金銀價可能猛漲

http://kingworldnews.com/

London Trader - Potential for Major Short Covering in Gold

With gold hitting new all-time highs and silver hovering around $40, a trader out of London told King World News today, “The all important thing to watch is the pit close (Comex).  If we get a pit close today in the US above either $1,600 gold or $40 silver, then you are going to see some huge capitulation by the shorts.  $40 silver is the trigger, there is a significant amount of money which did not want to enter the silver market until it cleared $40.”

“So you essentially have two critical factors to watch if we get a strong close today in silver.  A close today above $40 leaves those stops highly vulnerable to getting tripped (they will cover their shorts).  In the meantime you are also going to get funds who have been out of the silver market popping back in once it closes above $40.  These two competing buyers could create a quick and somewhat violent short-term move to the upside.

Right now silver is looking very bullish because the open interest is so small.  It appears there is a lot more room on the upside for silver vs gold because of the current structure, but I am not saying gold is anywhere near the top. 

A close above $1,600 on gold, similar to silver closing over $40, would create a huge bunch of short-covering.  The commercials have been adding short positions in gold, but should we get a close above $1,600, I think you will find the smaller of those shorts are going to start covering their shorts because it’s going to be too much pain.  This could result in a $50 move overnight. 

There is plenty of physical demand, no one is letting up....

“but there has been a slight reduction in demand out of Asia as the price of gold has been rising recently.  There have been a few discounts going on since gold pierced $1,580 (US), but nothing significant.  However, silver demand out of Asia has been staying extremely strong.

Don’t forget we have option expiration in gold taking place in eight working days.  There are about 2.3 million ounces of short bets sitting at $1,600 and currently there are only about 1.5 million ounces in registered inventory.  If these call holders in options, and there are still about 24,000 of them as of Friday, if even a chunk of those stand for delivery you will see some real fireworks to the upside.

You can expect war at that point because that’s too big a bet by a couple of small entities, and even though they will shoot themselves in the foot on a short-term basis, they will not be able to come up with the metal without driving the price of gold through the roof.  So I would say expect a bit of a war at the $1,600 level as we hit option expiration and shortly thereafter.

So prices could explode to the upside and I think silver could easily jump up $2 or $3 from here in the blink of an eye.  Again, if we get a close above $40, that kind of short-covering, plus new investment, we could get $2 or $3 to the upside easily in one session.  I would add that this would also cause additional pain for anyone on the wrong side of that trade.”

金價首破1600美元 連升11日創30年紀錄

http://gold.jrj.com.cn/2011/07/19071410477491.shtml

 

國際金價週一突破1600美元/盎司的紀錄新高，帶動白銀展開新一輪上漲行情，站上40美元上方。在歐債危機持續蔓延、以及美國債務違約風險上升的背景下，全球投資者擔憂情緒加劇成為支撐黃金價格上漲的重要原因。在國內，市場對於黃金儲備匱乏的擔憂也在上升。
截至昨日北京時間20:06，紐約黃金期貨8月合約報1603.5美元/盎司，再度刷新紀錄。從日K線上看，金價已連續11個交易日上漲，是1980年7月8日以來最長的連漲紀錄。
在剛剛過去的一周，紐約期金周漲幅達3.15％。另據世界黃金協會（WGC）在最新發布的二季度黃金投資報告中指出，二季度黃金表現超越多數其他資產類別，且13.4％的平均波動率遠低於20年平均水平15.8％。二季度期間黃金創下紀錄新高，季末收盤時較一季度收盤價上漲4.6％。二季度平均金價為1506.13美元/盎司，較一季度均價高出8.6％。
與此同時，市場持有黃金量也在持續增加，上周全球最大的黃金上市交易基金（ETF）——SPDR黃金持倉量大幅增加31 噸左右，表明投資人信心持續回歸黃金市場。統計還顯示，黃金ETF二季度持倉共增加45.6噸，至2155.3噸，創下2010年二季度以來最大增幅。其中，歐洲黃金ETF持倉增加29.2噸，主要是因為歐洲債務危機促使投資者買入黃金分散風險。
同期金條和金幣的購買同樣強勁。截至二季度末，紐約期貨市場投機性淨多頭倉位略高於一季度末時的水平。
目前，各國央行2011年上半年買入黃金總量已超過2010年全年，市場預計中國儲備黃金的需求更是異常強烈。
國泰君安總經濟師、首席經濟學家李迅雷更在昨日表示，目前我國黃金儲備按1595美元/盎司計，6月末黃金儲備佔外匯儲備之比只有1.69％，實在太低。同樣的出口大國德國，該比例是65％，美國則更高。俄羅斯和印度等都在5％以上。所以，中國假如在10年前就將該比例確定至5％，至少目前黃金儲備可以比現在多兩倍。
國際知名經濟學家加特曼近日也表示，中國整體儲備中黃金所佔的比例“令人震驚的低”，但這種情況最終將得以改善。加特曼表示，中國將成為一個低調的、但持續的黃金買家，同時也是其他資產的賣家。除此之外別無選擇。但預計這一過程進行得很慢，約為幾年或幾十年，而非幾個星期或幾個月。
據世界黃金協會公佈的數據顯示，中國持有黃金儲備為1054.1噸，遠低於美國、德國和意大利等國的持有量。
自2003年以來，國家外匯管理局通過國內雜金提純以及國內市場交易等方式，中國黃金儲備共增加了454噸。在各國公佈的黃金儲備中，只有6個國家超過1000噸，中國排名世界第5。
渣打銀行分析報告表示，“接下來的5年內，即將投入運營的金礦少之又少。而現在各大央行的身份由原來的黃金淨售出者轉變為淨買入者，將導致黃金供應的進一步短缺。在我們看來，最終的結果將會是即使需求平穩上升，黃金市場也會出現嚴重短缺，供需如此不平衡，所以我們認為金價有潛力上漲到每盎司5000美元。”其中，目前中國的外匯儲備中的黃金佔比，如果想要達到世界平均水平11％，中國還要購買6000多噸的黃金，相當於全球整整兩年的黃金產量。