2011年9月30日星期五

Martin Armstrong: Who Will Collapse First?

With continued turmoil in global markets, today King World News 
interviewed internationally followed Martin Armstrong, Founder and Former
Head of Princeton Economics International, Ltd.. 
Armstrong’s firm rose to be perhaps the largest
multinational corporate advisor in the world and by the 1997
Asian Currency Crisis, Armstrong was invited by China and
he flew to Beijing to advise the Central Bank.  
Many people don’t realize that Congress
went to Martin Armstrong 
for help as the fires were burning
during the financial collapse of 2008.

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/KWN_DailyWeb.htmlhttp://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/KWN_DailyWeb.htmlhttp://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/KWN_DailyWeb.htmlshapeimage_24_link_1



When asked what Congress wanted, Armstrong replied, “One question (From Congress) was, ‘How could everything collapse overnight like that?’  The difference was very simple, the mortgage-backed securities that they were using, they rated them AAA.  That’s why S&P and so on are being investigated because once they were rated AAA, then you could post them in the repurchase agreement market, the repo market. 

In the repo market you post securities, the next day you get cash for them and the next day you have to pay back the cash.  So it’s a 24 hour market.  Now if you have these time bombs that are rated AAA, and it has to be AAA paper to go into the repo market, and it blows up, you have 24 hours to come up with the cash.

Whereas, if they were not AAA, if they were even AA and they blew up, then they are just sitting on a company’s books.  That has to be reported on a quarterly basis and they have the time to work it out, take charge offs, whatever.  Lehman would have survived.  Most of the other companies would have survived....

“This is what a lot of people didn’t understand.  That is why a lot of people (Congressmen) ended up coming to me because I understand these markets, how they were created, I was there when they were created.”

When asked which currency will collapse first, Armstrong responded, “Americans tend to focus really just on the United States.  The United States is, among the Western countries, it’s actually in the best shape.  Europe is going to largely collapse first.  What you have to understand with the dollar is that the dollar is the reserve currency.  What that means is that about 40% of the interest that we pay goes overseas.

All of the foreign central banks hold US government bonds, not actually physical dollars, but they actually hold bonds as a reserve. So the reserve currency is not something that is going to crack first.  You have to understand that because if the dollar were to be the first thing to collapse, the rest of the world has to go with it.

In Europe, to put it into an American context, imagine if every state had the right to print dollars, it would be total chaos.  That’s what Europe did (by allowing individual country bonds to be issued) and that’s why I warned them that they were going to collapse, but politicians just didn’t want to hear it ten years ago.  They were more interested in creating a euro than they were in creating a (long-term functional) system.

...This is also why the banking system over there is in trouble.  They (European leaders) are going to try to hang on as long as they can.” 

The King World News interview with Martin Armstrong is incredibly powerful.  This was a man who at one time sat atop the financial world and who, to this very day, world leaders still go to for counsel.  Armstrong covered currencies, gold and much, much more.  The KWN interview with Martin Armstrong will be available shortly and you can listen to it by CLICKING HERE. 

 
 http://kingworldnews.com

SEPT SILVER EALGE SALES 2ND HIGHEST MONTH IN 2011






SEPT SILVER EALGE SALES 2ND HIGHEST MONTH IN 2011

Looks like the US MINT unloaded another 275,000 silver eagles today. Flying off the shelves. So far in SEPT we have 4 million silver eagles sold:

January 6,422,000

February 3,240,000

March 2,767,000

April 2,819,000

May 3,653,500

June 3,402,000

July 2,968,000

August 3,679,500

September 4,000,500

Total 32,951,500
---------------------------

全球貨幣

莫非 罗伯特·蒙代尔和约翰·纳什 係NWO的成員?
轉載宋鴻兵
“2011诺贝尔奖获得者北京论坛”,罗伯特·蒙代尔和约翰·纳什各自提出了对未来货币的构想。蒙代尔倡导创造一种“全球货币”,并交给全新的国际权威机构管理,以避免各货币区间摩擦不断;纳什则提出了“理想货币”的概念,这种货币以世界市场的价格为基础,最大的特点是可以消除通胀。世界货币启动了!

蒙代尔的世界货币思路,就是成立超主权的世界中央银行,中国和各国必须上交货币主权!老蒙的这一招算狠到家了,只怕各国没这么天真吧[呵呵]

House Seeks to Replace Dollar With Gold Coin

Posted by Cori O'Donnell - Thursday, September 29th, 2011
Republican House members have proposed a bill that would replace the one-dollar bill with a dollar coin, ultimately saving taxpayers money.
David Schweikert (R-AZ),  Jeb Hensarling (R-TX) and another House Republican proposed the bill titled the Currency Optimization, Innovation and National Savings (COINS) Act.
The House members say the U.S. would save $184 million a year just by switching to the use of the coin. According to Newsmax.com, “Schweikert said his proposal would save taxpayers billions of dollars over the next few decades by switching to a dollar coin in four years, or as soon as $600 million worth of dollar coins have entered the money supply. A whopping 3 billion paper dollars are shredded every year, and continuing destruction and construction of the paper dollars costs the government too much, he said.”
Utah is already ahead of the game. We told you in a previous article that the state is allowing its citizens to use gold and silver coins as currency. Utah residents are allowed to store their gold and silver in a vault and use a “debit-like card” to make transactions.
Not everyone is in agreement with this proposal. Massachusetts Senators Scott Brown (R) and John Kerry (D) have proposed an opposing bill, the Currency Efficient Act, which they claim is to protect the paper dollar bill.
Brown argues "The one dollar coin is misleading because it costs taxpayers so much more. In fact, we have over $1 billion worth of extra one-dollar coins sitting idle in vaults and that's set to double over the next several years.”
Are Brown and Kerry really that concerned about the paper dollar bill, or is their another motive behind their proposed act?
The Dollar Coin Alliance claims the two senators are trying to protect Crane&Co., a business in their home state of Massachusetts that supplies the paper used to create dollar bills. 
Keeping the dollar bill around will only cost U.S. taxpayers even more money.
"At a time when the government needs to be looking to save every dollar, we can't continue to play the same Washington game of serving narrow special interests with half-measure legislation,” said former Arizona Rep. Jim Kolbe, the honorary chair of the Dollar Coin Alliance.
The Federal Reserve says that a 2008 Harris poll found three fourths of people prefer the $1 note, but with America’s struggling economy a savings of $184 million a year in taxes can go a long way. 

金价受经济乐观情绪提振上涨,未平仓合约减少

2011年 9月 30日 星期五 05:08 BJT

* 德国投票支持增加欧元区救助基金规模,支撑金市

* 贝南克暗示可能采取新的刺激,提振经济乐观情绪

* COMEX期金未平仓合约触及近两年低位

* 市场关注:周五公布的美国个人所得数据

路透纽约/伦敦9月29日电---金价周四小幅走高,受助于德国投票支持增加欧元区救助基金规模将有助于解决债务危机的乐观情绪.

美国联邦储备理事会(FED)主席贝南克暗示,如果通胀压力缓解,可能采取新的刺激措施.美国上周初请失业金人士降至五个月低位.

1921GMT,现货金XAU=上涨0.3%,报每盎司1,612.50美元.

美国12月期金GCZ1结算价下跌0.80美元,报每盎司1,617.30美元,回吐早盘涨幅.犹太假期导致成交量低于平常.

纽约期金未平仓合约降至近两年低位.过去八个交易日,未平仓合约减少逾5万口.

"看来开始触底反弹了,"汇丰控股金属分析师James Steel称.

分析师称,黄金和白银价格可能动荡,因对欧洲政策制定者仍缺乏解决债务危机的整体计划的担忧挥之不去.

价格回落以後,亚洲黄金现货需求非常强劲.新加坡和香港金条升水为至少2月以来最高,印度升水为一年最高.

黄金上市交易基金的持仓仍相对强劲.

苏格兰皇家银行分析师在报告中写道,上市交易基金持仓量变动不大意味着核心的黄金持有人不会抛弃重要的避险资产黄金.

黃金真的可對沖風險?

馮觀榮、林建

上星期本欄以近代尋金熱為題,誰知文章見報之後,金價大幅下挫,從每盎斯1800美元狂插至1530美元,然後又大幅反彈至1660美元。跌幅/波幅之大,近期罕見。幸好文章的主旨只是指出黃金與美元兩者間存在着負相關,令其走勢有背馳的傾向,而現代的尋金熱是由弱勢美元催生出來的。

近期「元升金跌」的走勢,卻正好是上文的最佳註腳。原來當金價升至近1900美元時(2011年8月22日),美滙指數(dollar index)大概處於74.5的水平,當金價跌至1620美元,美滙指數升至79.0,兩者背馳的走勢至為明顯。如果說尋金熱是由弱勢美元催生出來的話,那麽尋金熱會否從此退潮,就要視乎美元能否繼續維持強勢了。

金價與股價有何關係

另外,很值得探討的就是要找出金價與股價之間存在着一個什麽樣的關係。【圖】是金價與美股(以道瓊斯指數為代表)近十年的走勢圖。以肉眼觀察兩者的走勢,看不出一個明顯的同步/背馳關係。當然,肉眼觀察不能作準,一切還應看仔細的統計分析。我們首先計算投資於黃金/美股的n天回報率(n由1天至22天),然後計算兩者之間的相關系數,結果見【表1】的首列。

【表1】可見股價與金價之間,存在着一個相當微弱的負相關(大概為-0.05左右,p-value相當大,可視作零相關),而相關度又不太受持有期的長度(n天)所影響。另外,我們又把數據分為前段(2000年1月至2005年12月)及後段(2006年1月至2011年9月),並計算兩段的相關系數,見【表1】的二、三列。計算結果顯示,持有期稍大時,前/後時段的相關系數沒有很大分別。統計數字的共識是:金、股的走勢並沒有什麼顯著的統計關係。

着眼於股市的讀者,可能會對以上的結論感到有點失望:「我的興趣是股價,如果金價跟股價無關,那我為啥要留意金價呢?」這個看法可說是「差之毫釐,謬以千里」。

投資組合風險較低

原來資產配置(asset allocation)之道,正好是要尋找相關系數不高(包括零相關或負相關)的資產類別(asset classes)。根據組合理論(portfolio theory):如果兩種資產的相關系數不高的話,其投資組合(portfolio)的風險比起單一資產的風險要低得多。與股市無關的金市,應該是對沖股票市場風險的上佳工具!

所謂資產配置之道,對基金投資稍有認識的讀者應該不會感到陌生。事實上,很多基金都把資金配置於股票與債券兩種資產之上;其深層的原理,其實就在於股、債之間存在着一個不高的相關系數。既然股、債可以並舉,為什麽金、股不應該齊鳴呢?

金、股應不應該齊鳴,當然不能單從風險的角度去考慮。比起債券,黃金的回報率很不穩定。在「十年黃金變爛銅」的年代(指的是八十、九十年代,見上星期四本欄),黃金處於熊市,投資黃金只能得到負回報;金股齊鳴雖可降低風險,但也同時大幅地拖低回報,可說是得不償失。但如果由2000年開始,我們採用金股齊鳴的策略,其表現又會如何呢?

我們比較以下五個組合的投資表現。這五個組合分別為(A)100%股票,0%黃金;(B)75%股票,25%黃金;(C)50%股票,50%黃金;(D)25%股票,75%黃金;及(E)0%股票,100%黃金。

【表2】給出這五個組合的年回報率及年風險。在這十一多年中,美股表現非常差勁,其年回報率(不包括股息)只有約2%,但投資黃金的年回報率卻有18%之多。所以任何加入黃金的投資組合都比純股票組合有較高的回報。以(C)組合(50%股票,50%黃金)為例,其年回報率為10%。

金股齊鳴旨在對沖

當然,過往的表現不等於將來的表現。以上的回報數字其實是一個很牛的金市與一個沒有升幅的股市所合成的產物;如果牛/熊易位,增加黃金的投資比例只會拖低回報,金股齊鳴便不值得推薦。

其實金股齊鳴的真正功用,不是利用來增加回報,而是在於對沖風險。由【表2】可見:股市風險為21%,金市風險為19%,但金股各半的組合(C),其風險可壓縮至13.5%。如果投資者看好金市前景的話,那麼在投資股票之餘,加進少許黃金的投資,可不失為一個對沖風險的方法。但如果投資者認為黃金牛市已死,那就當然要滴金不沾了。


白銀失對沖賣點

THE LEX COLUMN

對於那些遲了一步參加貴金屬炒作派對的投資者而言,押注有「窮人黃金」之稱的白銀被視為一舉兩得:既能搭上黃金的升市順風車,又能在動盪的市況中令人安寢無憂。然而,白銀投資者大概意料不到,他們晚上會擔心得難以入眠。

長線保值資產出現短期波動不一定有問題,不過,銀價近日如坐過山車般的走勢,卻令人緊張不安。在美國掛牌的安碩白銀基金,是全球最大、供散戶投機白銀的投資工具,該基金受到六個風雨飄搖的交易日洗禮後一度跌約三成,周二才從周一的低位反彈最多一成。 

銀市當前的波動不僅可媲美雷曼兄弟倒閉後的數月,甚至令人憶起三十年前叫人心驚肉跳的情景:亨特兄弟(Hunt Brothers)試圖囤積居奇把價格推高,結果銀市大崩潰。

即使過去一周的市況真如白銀好友寄望,只是大致順暢的升浪出現短暫的調整,但白銀走勢還有另一教人不安的特徵。白銀非但不能發揮對沖作用,甚至開始跟金融資產及工業商品「共同進退」。分析師的解釋是,這是投資者上周爭相沽售流動資產(或對沖基金獲利)的結果;這種講法,有如把白銀與股市一同反彈歸咎於趁低吸納一樣靠不住。

白銀「低」,是相對什麼而言呢?銀價目前已重返相當於金價五十分一的水平,跟二十世紀的平均數相若。部分論者指出,由於白銀相對罕有,其相對價格應該升至六分一左右,那麼,黃金具說服力的基礎價值又應該是多少?

貴金屬之所以吸引,既因為它「並非任何人的負債」,也因為它跟其他資產的走勢各不相干。若失去這些特質,投資者或會不問好醜,棄之後快。

譯自THE LEX COLUMN