供不應求 鈀金價升

王冠一


在貴金屬之中，鈀金價格近日走勢較受注目，升幅甚至跑贏黃金、白銀、鉑金，真令人刮目相看。

鈀金早期主要用於珠寶首飾、電子及牙科醫療器具，及後發現加入汽車排放系統後，這種催化劑能有效降低廢氣汙染。目前每年全球 70％ 出產的鈀金，皆由汽車工業消化

。換句話說，汽車銷售的升跌，主宰了鈀金價格的走勢。

鈀金具有耐高溫、耐腐蝕、極強伸展性又不易氧化失去光澤等特性。由 2012 年起市場開始供不應求，即使去年環球汽車銷售按年僅升 2%，仍無改鈀金供需不均局面。去年鈀金供不應求約 180 萬盎司，今年續缺至少 10 萬盎司。

需求面上，中美兩國汽車市場，佔鈀金整體需求的三分之一，故鈀金價格尤其對中國、美國的汽車銷售表現敏感。今年首季，中美汽車銷售分別增 3.9%、6.4%，向好的汽車銷售數據自然帶動鈀金價格上揚。

根 據 GFMS 鉑金及鈀金調查，去年以鈀金作為活性塗層的汽車催化器數量按年增加 5%，幅度甚至超越汽車銷售升幅。隨著中美兩國收緊汽車廢氣排放管制，每輛車所使用的鈀金份量按規定必須增加。分析預期，此舉將提升鈀金的工業需求，供不 應求的情況將持續至 2016、2017 年。

鈀金價格自今年3月底觸及每盎司726美元以來，至今已升超逾7%至780美元左右，跑贏同期黃金（升 1%）、白銀（升 2%）、鉑金（升 2%）的漲幅。除了需求預期持續上升之外，供應緊張亦是一大因素。

供 應面上，僅有俄羅斯與南非兩國產出鈀金。全球最大鈀金開採商為俄羅斯的Norilsk Nickel，佔環球產量約45%。由於俄羅斯與烏克蘭、西方國家之間局勢不明朗，勢將影響俄國的資源開採、出口。Norilsk Nicket明言，今年鈀金產量將跌5％至6%。至於南非，預期今年產量將提升17%至248萬盎司，但近年屢受工潮阻礙採礦業務，供應能否穩定也是未知 之數。

長期供不應求的情況下，交易所買賣基金（ETFs）去年增持3百萬盎司的鈀金，增幅約 7%；具同樣工業用途，但多用於歐洲柴油車的鉑金，則被部分交易員唾棄，減持 2% 至 270 萬盎司。高盛最新的報告認為，鉑金最大產國南非貨幣蘭特匯價下挫將促使礦商壓低鉑金價格，而鈀金則因中美汽車需求強勁，而增加需求 50 萬盎司。

不過，大好形勢之中也隱藏變數。歐洲對俄羅斯的經濟制裁日後是鬆是緊，將直接改變俄國礦物資源出口政策；而巴西工潮若今年得到平息，產量如願提升的話，鈀金價格或有機會受壓。

Precious Metals “Porn”

The Scramble To Hold Physical Bullion Is On!…


Submitted by PM Fund Manager Dave Kranzler, Investment Research Dynamics:
A nice way to start of Memorial Day Weekend is with some interesting thoughts about the precious metals.  The Shadow of Truth recorded a podcast with Craig “Turd Ferguson” Hemke yesterday  which will be released this weekend.
Craig and I both agree that the bottom is in for gold and silver and that the physical market demand from the east is just too strong for the BIS/Fed/Bullion Bank cartel to push the metals any lower than where they are now using fraudulent paper gold derivatives – at least for any meaningful duration other than intra-day paper dumps.  We also agree that Harry Dent is nothing but a snake-oil newsletter pimp.

The Scramble To Hold Physical Bullion Is On

Zerohedge has done a nice job finding an article from an Austrian paper which has reported that the Austrian Central Bank has repatriated 110 tonnes of gold from the Bank of England:  LINK

• CENTRAL BANK TO BRING MOST GOLD RESERVES BACK TO AUSTRIA: KRONE
• KRONEN-ZEITUNG REPORTS ON AUSTRIAN CENTRAL BANK’S GOLD PLANS
• AUSTRIA TO TRANSPORT 110 TONNES GOLD BACK TO AUSTRIA: KRONE

Austrian central bank plans to keep 50% of its gold reserves in Austria vs 17% now, Kronen-Zeitung reports, citing governor Ewald Nowotny’s unpublished new “gold strategy.” Bloomberg adds,

• 30% of gold reserves to be kept in U.K., down from 80% now
• 20% to be kept in Switzerland vs ~3% now
• Intention is “risk diversification:” Krone

I wanted to share some graphs with you that I think you’ll find interesting (click on them to enlarge).

This chart on the left shows 13-yr silver on a weekly basis.  You’ll note that on a weekly basis, silver has poked its ahead above the downtrend line going back to late 2011.   Many of us have been wondering why it’s so hard to get any data on China’s silver production and imports.   There’s a reason for that and I believer China has sucked most of the global supply dry.
This graph is pretty much self-explanatory.  It’s a 15-yr graph of the price of gold.  As you can see, it would appear as if gold has completed a multi-year bull market pullback and is consolidating for the start of the 2nd leg of the precious metals bull market.




 In general, the 2nd leg of a bull market tends to produce the best gains, especially on a risk-return basis.   It’s when the market goes parabolic because everyone including janitors and cab driver are jumping in to a market – like the current stock market – that a bull market becomes too risky for fundamentals-based investors. But we still have Stage 2 of the gold bull before we start assessing a “final blow-off” stage.
Finally, to circle back to the idea that there’s a scramble for physical bullion, here’s the latest graph which shows the accumulation of gold by the Russian Central Bank, which added another 300,000 ozs in April (source: Goldchartsrus.com):

As you can see, Russian gold reserves have gone up more than 300% since 2006.  There’s a reason for this and I assume we’ll find out that reason a lot sooner than the corrupted, neo-con infested U.S. Government would like us to find out…

礦企主管：黃金礦產量今年將開始下降可支撐金價

FX168訊俄羅斯第二大貴金屬生產商Polymetal的首席執行官Vitaly Nesis認為，已經持續數年的黃金礦產量增加將結束，大量黃金生產商將最終放棄金價會回升的希望。

Nesis表示：“我們在等待著那些弱勢的礦企最終退出，很多CEO們仍然抱有金價會回升的期望。今年產量會有一些增長，明年則一定會有下降。”

一些投資者和行業人士批評黃金生產商們生產了太多高價的黃金。 Randgold Resources的主管Mark Bristow去年就曾經說，黃金行業缺乏自律，傷害了金價。

2013年黃金礦產量創下3114噸的記錄，而當年金價大跌28%，需求大跌15%至5年低點。

今年一季度黃金礦產量同比增2%，Nesis認為，市場需要的是產量下降至少2%才能支撐價格。關閉金礦的困難、低能源價格和太多對金價回升的希望只是在拖延。

Nesis表示：“遲早那些金礦是會被關掉的，我們會看到更多被迫出現的關門。”

Nesis認為今年第四季度或者明年第一季度開始黃金礦產量就會開始減少，不過要四個季度的產量下降才能改善市場對金價和黃金礦企股的情緒。