金銀小甲蟲-談金論銀: 12/08/12

2012年8月12日星期日

This week’s close of 1622.6 is the highest weekly closing since May. We have to be cautious next week for we could still make a higher intraday high, and then turn down for 3 weeks before turning back up. The resistance to watch is 1671. We have to see a weekly closing above that level before gold will see any sustainable rally. This crawling sideways pattern is indicative of the calm before the storm. The volatility should start to rise now for the next three weeks before we see another turning point. The other number to watch is 1569. A year-end closing below that level will signal a low next year completing a two-year correction process with a 5 year rally thereafter intraday into 2018 with 2017 being the highest annual closing. If this pattern unfolds and gold cannot get above 1671, the we may be looking at the whole Sovereign Debt Crisis coming in starting next year. Taxes will rise in the USA and governments are attacking the bullion trade as we see in France. They appear to be forcing capital to hoard expanding the underground economy. Americans with safety deposit boxes in Europe have been told to get out. Governments are doing everything to grab money short-term. They will cause a sharp economic contraction by forcing capital to hoard.This is similar to the same patterns that set the Decline and Fall of Rome in motion by Maximinus I (235-238 AD) who sought to attack the rich seizing all wealth.

盤點歐債危機截止至今的幾大“墨菲定律”

墨菲定律是美國的一名工程師愛德華·墨菲作出的著名論斷，亦稱莫非定律、莫非定理、或摩菲定理，是西方世界常用的俚語。墨菲定律主要內容是：事情如果有變壞的可能，不管這種可能性有多小，它總會發生。

　　目前來看，雖然在經歷了7月下旬以來的狂風驟雨之後，最近西班牙、義大利國債市場出現難得一見的緩和跡象，市場對歐洲央行（ECB）救市的預期也始終存在，但是，長達3年的歐債危機告訴我們，歐債的前路還遠不是那麼一帆風順。

　　墨菲定律啟示一：任何事都沒有表面看起來那麼簡單

　　上周，歐洲央行在萬眾期待中最終卻選擇了按兵不動，市場此前受德拉基救市言論的鼓舞，一度群情激奮。但現實告訴人們，任何事都沒有表面看起來那麼簡單。

　　8月2日，歐洲央行推遲救市的決定令市場大失所望，德拉基稱歐洲央行最早將於9月初採取拯救行動，但先決條件是：一、危機國家提出要求並接受嚴格條件與監管；二、只有當歐洲金融穩定工具與歐洲穩定機制介入債券市場之後，歐洲央行才會在二級市場出手認購國債，也就是說，危機國家首先應在一級市場求助於歐洲金融穩定工具。為了使國債利率水準與相關國家經濟形勢更加相符，德拉基並不排除“無限”購買的可能性，即大規模和持續地購買。

　　這是一個戰略性轉變，因為自2010年以來，歐洲央行在二級市場購買國債是被限制的，總共只有2100億歐元，結果表明這是無效的。

　　歐洲央行出手救市之前擺出嚴苛的先決條件主要緣于德國反對。在德國看來，歐洲央行干預債券市場無異於直接資助有關國家，而這是歐盟《裏斯本條約》所禁止的。而且，歐洲央行如此大規模向市場注資，有可能增加通貨膨脹的風險，而抑制通貨膨脹是歐洲央行的主要任務。歐洲央行推遲救市並設置先決條件等變通措施就是為了能夠獲得德國的認可。

　　因此，接下來的9月至關重要：歐盟委員會將出臺歐洲銀行聯盟計劃，歐洲央行將討論在二級市場購買歐元區危機國國債計劃，德國聯邦憲法法院將就歐洲穩定機制是否符合德國憲法進行裁決。

　　墨菲定律啟示二：所有的事都會比你預計的時間長

　　歐債危機爆發已近3年，雖然各方採取了多項措施，但危機依然在繼續發酵蔓延。在危機的壓力之下，歐元也由強勢貨幣轉為弱勢貨幣，迄今已較高點跌去逾20％。未來歐元能否重拾強勢貨幣的地位，關鍵繫於歐債危機的演化，但前景恐怕並不樂觀。

　　目前來看，歐債的解決仍極有可能將是一拖再拖的情況。

　　一方面，西班牙始終不願放下架子尋求全面援助，歐盟之前制定的救助措施也在實施過程中受阻：ESM機制推遲運行，原定於7月1日啟動的歐洲永久性救助機制ESM最早今年9月12日才能得到德國憲法法院的合法性核準。

　　另一方面，希臘的新援助方案極有可能推遲至10月執行。歐盟一位官員8月9日表示，希臘的國際債權人不準備在10月份之前就針對該國的新救助方案進行討論，屆時債權人將向歐元區各國財長提交一份有關希臘救助方案的評估報告。該評估報告將決定希臘是否有資格獲得新一輪310億歐元救助資金（新一輪救助方案中的250億歐元將用於希臘銀行業的資本重組）。

　墨菲定律啟示三：會出錯的事總會出錯

　　會出錯的事總會出錯，那麼放出歐洲經濟上，會不佳的經濟數據似乎也總是會不佳，會下調的預期也總是會下調。

　　歐洲央行週四（8月9日）在月報中稱，歐元區經濟前景存在下行風險，金融市場的緊張局面及其對實體經濟的潛在衝擊是主要擔憂所在。

　　歐洲央行在月報中公佈了最新專業預估人士調查。調查顯示，專業人士維持對歐元區2012年通脹預期不變，下調2013年通脹預期。專業人士還下調了對今明兩年的經濟預估，同時上調了對今明兩年的失業率預估。

　　月報稱：“圍繞歐元區經濟前景的風險仍然偏下行。它們尤其體現了幾個歐元區金融市場的緊張局面，以及波及歐元區實體經濟的潛在可能。下行風險也與能源價格中期內可能重拾漲勢有關。”

　　歐洲央行還表示：“歐元區通脹預期繼續保持穩定，與管理委員會讓通脹率在中期內低於但接近2％的目標一致。”該央行指出，長期通脹預期的不確定性已經有所下降，但仍然很高。

　　歐洲央行稱，受援助國家必須確保嚴格堅持已經達成的財政穩固計劃。

　　歐債危機漸顯出殺傷力，因已有些蔓延至歐元區核心國家的徵兆。週三（8月8日）德國公佈的6月進出口數據雙雙下滑，6月德國進口環比降3.0％，遠差于預期的降1.5％，更差于5月的增6.2％。

　　同在週三公佈的德國6月工業生產較前月下滑0.9％，差于預期的降0.7％。此外，法國公佈的6月貿易逆差從5月的54.7億歐元擴大至59.9億歐元。

　　墨菲定律啟示四：如果你擔心某種情況發生，那麼它就更有可能發生

　　目前來看，市場對歐債最為擔憂的仍是兩件事，一是希臘債務最終依然無法承擔，黯然退歐；二是債務危機進一步蔓延至其他核心國家。

　　目前來看，這兩件事也並非全無可能。

　　外媒週四（8月9日）發佈調查顯示，受訪經濟學家稱西班牙在年底前尋求全面援助的幾率是68％。

　　經濟學家認為，西班牙、希臘和葡萄牙可能無法實現2013年赤字目標。經濟學家還下調了西班牙、希臘和葡萄牙2013年經濟增長前景。

　　在這些可能性的探討上，評級機構的意見或許最為值得參考。而在近期，評級機構似乎又開始蠢蠢欲動了。

　　標準普爾評級服務公司（Standard &； Poor's Ratings Service）週三將希臘評級展望從穩定下調至負面，指出希臘政府很難再進一步削減開支以達到歐盟（EU）和國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）為發放下一筆救助資金所設定的條件。

　　該機構表示，由於預算整頓措施的實施推遲，另外經濟狀況也有所惡化，今年希臘可能會按照由歐盟和IMF提出的現有救助方案申請更多救助資金。該機構稱，若希臘2012年赤字及債務缺口無法通過國際三方提供新資金或者其他方式得以填補，那麼希臘評級就可能遭遇下調。

　　此外，週四加拿大評級機構Dominion Bond Rating Service（DBRS）宣佈對西班牙及義大利評級進行下調，評級趨勢均為負面。DBRS將西班牙評級由A（高）下調至A（低），將義大利評級由A（高）下調至A。

　　“墨菲定律”忠告

　　近半個世紀以來，“墨菲定律”曾經攪得世界人心神不寧，它提醒我們：我們解決問題的手段越高明，我們將要面臨的麻煩就越嚴重。事故照舊還會發生，永遠會發生。“墨菲定律”忠告人們：面對自身缺陷，我們最好還是想得更週到、全面一些，採取多種保險措施，防止偶然發生的人為失誤導致的災難和損失。

　　因此對於歐元區和歐元的前景，投資者目前仍需持謹慎態度，不做無根據的過度樂觀預期。其前景大致可以分為三種，一是歐元區分崩離析，但這種前景只是理論上的，實際出現的可能性很小；二是部分國家脫離歐元區，這一前景有可能成為現實，但目前來看危機仍處在可控狀態，幾率也不大；三是歐洲國家花費數年時間來消化沉重的債務負擔，並扭轉經濟增長與政府支出的結構性失衡，逐漸走出危機陰影，以歷史上他國出現過的債務危機做參考的話，這一情景出現的可能性最大，即歐元區很可能會迎來“失去的十年”。

We Are Now Seeing Huge Orders For Physical Gold & Silver

Bill Haynes continues:

“These are wealthy individuals that are very strong hands and they are taking the metal right out of the market, and believe me, these individuals are never sellers. They see gold and silver as a hard asset that has been money for thousands of years, and they are pulling it out of the market and putting it away.

It is also very interesting that we are seeing an equal amount of money going into both gold and silver....

“I can tell you this is money that has been waiting patiently on the sidelines for weeks, and even months in some cases. The belief by these strong-handed buyers is that the bottom for gold has been achieved and it is now time to add to their positions. Savvy buyers know that summer is historically a great time to buy and that’s exactly what they are doing.”

Haynes also noted: “Another interesting thing was an editorial that was in the FT yesterday. One of the writers started trashing gold in the Financial Times. He said it’s time to sell your gold and send the kids to college, buy an automobile or take a vacation because this bubble is over.

Eric, this is the type of nonsense we see in the mainstream media when a bottom is being put in, and the Financial Times has been one of the greatest contrarian indicators for the gold market. I also find it interesting that this is the week the big buyers are making a statement with their physical gold and silver purchases. They are doing their buying right into the face of this ridiculous nonsense coming out of the Financial Times.”

Haynes also added: “I would also like to note that the world is waiting on Germany to bail out the rest of Europe. Perversely, if that happens I believe we are going to see tremendous strength in the euro. I don’t think it’s logical, but as the euro strengthens I expect to see a further boost in the price of gold.

What KWN readers need to be aware of is this is the worst financial crisis the world has ever seen. This is a financial crisis supreme, and the universal solution continues to be the printing of money. This will eventually lead to massive destruction of both the economies and the currencies that participate in this madness.

It will also lead to massive inflation. I know some financial managers have told their clients to have 10% or 15% in gold, but for the financial climate that we are living through right now, I firmly believe people should have 50% to 60% of their assets in the physical metals.”

Having known Bill Haynes over at CMI Gold & Silver for a long time now, I can tell you that he does not like keeping his money in cash. He has always been and continues to be a buyer of physical gold and silver. So he practices what he is telling other people to do in terms of asset allocation. He simply converts fiat money into physical metal on the price dips.

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