2013年5月4日星期六

Ron Paul + Jim Rogers on the government: "They'll use force and they'll use intimidation..."

On the heels of a scathing assessment by Nigel Farage on the economic conditions in Europe which he says will ultimately lead to violent revolution, former US congressman Ron Paul and well known investor Jim Rogers weigh in on the discussion.
Undeterred by those who fail to heed his warnings, Dr. Paul suggests that global economic conditions, spearheaded by out-of-control government policies in the United States, will continue to deteriorate until such time that the whole system comes unhinged.
With financial markets hitting all-time highs, jubilation spreading throughout Wall Street, and average Mom & Pop Americans wondering if it’s time to plunge back in to stocks, Paul sees no reason for celebration.
The economy worldwide, certainly in the States, is a lot weaker than they tell us.
I believe that the unemployment rate in the United States is over 20%.
I think there’s still inflation with the dollar… Everybody knows that they’re printing $85 billion a month… that could be considered inflation.
You still have inflation, and that’s distortion… you have malinvestment… so you still have the built in problems, and we have plenty.
I would expect that there’s going to be a lot more chaos yet to come. It will not be limited to Europe. I think it will be a worldwide phenomenon.
That states won’t escape it either because there are so many gross distortions throughout the world….
We disobeyed economic law… and you can’t do that, no matter what Bernanke tells you.



Jim Rogers, also a featured speaker at the Sovereign Man offshore tactics workshop, joins forces with Ron Paul and suggests that those very policies implemented by Ben Bernanke and his global banking cohorts, are the problem, not the solution.
Rogers cites a previous exchange between Ron Paul and Fed chief Ben Bernanke, in which Bernanke outright declared that gold is not money, further cementing his reputation as nothing more than a monetary charlatan:
The present head of the central bank does not understand economics, he does not understand finance, he does not understand currencies. All he understands is printing money. His whole intellectual career has been devoted to the study of printing money. And, as you know, we have given him the printing presses.
That strategy, of course, will be disastrous. It’ll further impoverish Americans by reducing wages relative to rising prices for essential goods, while increasing the national debt to unmanageable levels.
What comes next, according to Rogers and Paul, will take the majority of the population by surprise because most people simply can’t fathom the possibility of such a thing ever happening in the Land of the Free:
Rogers: They will take our retirement accounts. They will take our 401k’s. They will say, ‘you’ve all been having such a hard time earning money in your 401k’s, so what we’re going to do is we’re going to save you.’
Paul: I don’t doubt it for a minute. They’ll do what they think is necessary. and they’ll use force, and they’ll use intimidation, and they’ll use guns. Because, you can’t challenge the state and you can’t challenge the State’s so-called right to control the money… I think that’s very possible at that time when things get a lot rockier than they are now.
There are well informed students of economics, financial markets and history. They understand that global governments, especially in Europe and the United States, have bitten off more than they can chew. And they see a continuation of the same policies that have led to the worst economic conditions since the Great Depression.
Moreover, they understand, like many other concerned and informed Americans, that when the real crash comes it will be worse than anything we’ve ever experienced before.

八幅圖讀懂美國4月就業數據的真相


捱過陰雨綿綿的4月,5月公佈的美國4月非農就業報告(報告)整體來看一掃3月報告就業增長的頹勢,推動道指史上首破15000點,標普站上1600點華盛頓郵報以圖表形式全面展示4月報告透露了哪些好消息和哪些問題。華爾街見聞可以歸納為:




    
就業亮點前兩月,公共就業連月跌。勞動參與沒增長,工資還得再加勁。

 
首先看就業增長。


 
4月增長16.5萬人也不算太多,但前兩月的就業數據上調很給力。 3月由8.8萬人調至13.8萬人,上調幅度高達57%。 2月由26.8萬人調至33.2萬人,成為2010年5月以來就業增長最強勁的一個月。
 
下圖可見季調後月度就業增減變化。

下圖的紅線是失業率,4月失業率由3月的7.6%降至7.5%,創四年新低。
但4月政府就業崗位減少了1.1萬個,是公共部門連續第二個月就業減少。也許這就是美國財政自動減支實施兩個月的打擊。
公共部門就業形勢惡化是這次與以往衰退後復蘇期的重要區別。
說到就業,還有一個統計就業者的基準問題。看一看勞動力參與率可以知道全國總人口之中哪些人可以算作“勞動者”。
 
4月的勞動力參與率持平3月,還是63.3%,仍然處於1979年以來最低點。

美國失業率分六檔,簡稱U1-U6。

 
我們平時看到的基準失業率是U3,也就是這次創新低的7.5%。 U3統計的是過去4週內沒有找到工作的勞動者。


 
通常U1和U2低於U3,U1統計失業時長超過15週的勞動者,U2統計當月失業或做臨工的勞動者。


 
U4-U6一般高於U3,U4的統計對象既有U3統計的那些勞動者,也有那些認為沒有適合的工作而停止求職的勞動者。


 
U5除了包括U4的統計對象,還有那些出於種種原因近來停止求職的勞動者。


 
除了包括U5的統計對象,U6還增加了希望找全職工作卻因種種原因只好打臨工的勞動者。


 
下面我們看到的是U1-U6整體失業形勢,4月除U3和U4環比下降外,U6為上升,其餘均持平。


 
U6由3月的13.8%升至13.9%,但從去年7月開始就再沒有突破15%。

各領域就業不同程度地受到經濟下滑影響。建築業受到的打擊最大,而醫療教育幾乎沒有受影響。
 
4月表現不錯的是教育和醫療、金融業、休閒與護理服務和專業服務,但復甦以來表現最佳的礦業和伐木業4月還沒有多少起色。

除了就業,報告還告訴我們工資漲了沒有。 4月同比增長1.9%。不過美聯儲的通脹目標是2%,而且如果要終止QE,通脹率可以最高達到2.5%。所以,實際工資還得再漲漲。

陳德霖:香港經濟面臨過熱風險






 

港金融管理局CEO陳德霖稱,香港的家庭債務對GDP佔比創下紀錄新高的61%,香港經濟正面臨過熱風險。

“香港的消費和個人債務增長一直高於整體經濟增長,”週五,陳德霖在香港立法會上表示,“宏觀經濟的穩定”面臨風險。


陳德霖表示,在2月份房地產受到限制後,香港房地產市場出現了降溫的跡象,但是現在說已經進入下行週期還為時尚早。經常項目平衡正在下降,這是消費和經濟面臨過熱風險的一個警告信號。


香港的房屋價格是全球主要城市中最昂貴的。在政府出台了最嚴格的措施來限制房價上漲,以及銀行自2011年以來首次提高了抵押貸款利率後,4月香港房屋價格出現了3年來最大的下跌。陳德霖發表這番評的同時,有跡象表明全球經濟復甦不穩,中國、日本、韓國的工業和製造業數據不及預期。


去年12月份,香港金融管理局表示,過熱的房地產市場日益與其他經濟產業脫節。據華爾街見聞此前報導,Sanford C. Bernstein香港有​​限公司曾表示,在香港政府出台措施限制資產泡沫,銀行提高抵押貸款利率後,房價最高可能下降25%。


2月22日,香港政府將所有高於200萬港元的房地產交易的印花稅增加了一倍。香港金融管理局已經要求銀行將新房貸款的風險權重維持在最小的15%,以幫助他們對抗房價的下跌。


陳德霖將“超低利率環境”當做經濟風險的一個因素,“當房地產價格上漲,人們認為他們的財富也增長了,即使他們還沒有出售房屋。”


在2月立法會的簡報中,陳德霖指出家庭債務對GDP佔比在去年三四季度達到58%-59%。


陳德霖稱,金融管理局將監控是否需要出台更多的房地產管制措施。


根據彭博的預測,香港第一季度經濟可能同比上漲2.5%,第四季度的增速可能也一樣。

時寒冰 4_4_2013





這是極其重要的一天。棋局之佈局到現在已經完全清晰了。美國經濟全面復甦,不再有任何顧慮。條件已經全面成熟。不久之後,它將減少購債。再之後,它將宣布加息。美聯儲將開啟地獄之門,給一些國家套上蕭條的枷鎖。
時寒冰
美國非農數據好轉成就美元王者風範,將成為未來埋葬歐元的集結號——美國4月份非農就業增加16.5萬,預期增加14萬人;失業率7,5%,創4年新低,預期為7.6%。勞動力參與率月63.3%,與上月持平,仍處於1979年以來新低。 3月就業數據從增加8.8萬人向上修正為增加13.8萬人。 2月季調後非農就業人口修正為 +33.2

細券商唔停咁摺

雖然近期股市好似有番少少起色,但股票行停業消息仍然不斷!一連兩日,港交所(00388)網站都披露有證券行停止營業嘅消息。好似前日(2日)港交所至收到大一投資停止營業嘅通知。唔夠24小時,尋日(3日)港交所又接獲福而偉資本通知在交易所暫停營業,直至另行通告為止。

翻查證監會資料,大一投資擁有俗稱「一號仔」嘅證券交易牌。福而偉就除咗一號仔牌外,仲有九號牌即資產管理。

蔡思聰:生意唔易做
證券商協會前主席蔡思聰對於一連兩日有「行家」唔做,一啲都唔出奇。佢話好多人以為股票行易做,點知做做吓至知「錢都唔係咁易執!」開間股票行,做埋孖展成本約一千萬,但呢行本錢少根本好難做到大生意,因為佣金鬥平鬥到焦頭爛額、人客又流失去銀行,最重要係太多衍生工具,啲客對股市冇晒信心!經營股票行仲要驚畀客人同伙記走數,又驚自己頭寸唔夠,分分鐘賺埋唔夠蝕,所以佢話,將一千萬元攞去買樓肯定更加有「着數」!