2026年2月4日星期三

2011年愛潑斯坦電郵曝光：中國若棄美元掛鉤轉向黃金，誰將提前布局？

2011年9月9日晚上11點01分，一封看似普通的電郵被發送到Jeffrey Epstein（中文常譯為「傑弗里·愛潑斯坦」）的私人郵箱 jeevacation@gmail.com。寄件人身分目前仍被部分遮蓋，但內容卻直白得令人震驚：

「我們應該研究一下這種可能性，以及如果中國決定放棄貨幣與美元的掛鉤，改用黃金作為替代，該如何從中賺錢。」

這句話出自13年前，當時全球金融市場仍處於2008年金融海嘯後的餘波，美元作為世界儲備貨幣的地位看似牢不可破，人民幣對美元的「盯住式」匯率機制（俗稱「盯住美元」或「美元掛鉤」）也仍是中國外匯政策的核心支柱。誰能想到，一個以性犯罪醜聞聞名的金融圈人物，竟在私下討論如此宏觀且具顛覆性的地緣貨幣議題？

背景：2011年的中美貨幣博弈

2011年，中國已是全球第二大經濟體，持有超過3萬億美元的外匯儲備，其中大部分是美國國債。人民幣匯率長期被美國指責「人為低估」，中美之間的「貨幣戰」爭論不休。同一時期，黃金價格正處於歷史高位（2011年9月金價一度衝上1,900美元/盎司以上），不少投資者已開始質疑美元的長期信用。

愛潑斯坦這封電郵的時間點非常微妙：

剛好在全球對美元霸權的質疑聲浪升高之際
中國央行當時正悄悄增加黃金儲備（雖然公開數據增長緩慢，但市場一直有「隱藏買盤」的傳聞）
BRICS（金磚國家）概念已成型，開始醞釀挑戰西方主導的金融秩序

他不是在談道德或地緣政治，而是赤裸裸地問：「如果中國真的這麼做，我們怎麼賺錢？」

這封電郵意味什麼？

精英圈早已預見「去美元化」
愛潑斯坦的社交圈包括政商學界頂層人物。這封電郵顯示，至少在2011年，某些具影響力的人士已經認真考慮「人民幣脫鉤美元、轉向黃金本位（或部分黃金支持）」的可能性，並開始盤算如何從中漁利。這不是陰謀論，而是赤裸的資本邏輯：當貨幣體系可能發生結構性轉變時，先知先覺者總想搶先卡位。
黃金在今天重回聚光燈
2025–2026年間，隨著BRICS擴大、人民幣國際化加速、中國持續增持黃金、甚至傳出「金磚貨幣」或「黃金結算」概念，當年那句「用黃金代替」的假設已不再是空想。金價屢創新高，央行買金熱潮持續，美元信用正面臨多重挑戰。回頭看這封2011年的電郵，簡直像預言。
誰是真正的「玩家」？
愛潑斯坦本人並非貨幣專家，他更像一個「連接者」——把各種資源、人脈、資訊串聯起來。這封電郵或許不是他一個人的想法，而是他與某位金融圈、金屬圈或地緣政治圈人士討論後的結論。被遮蓋的寄件人身分，或許才是關鍵線索。

結語：歷史總在重演，只是參與者換了面孔

今天我們看到的是：央行拋售美債、增持黃金、數位貨幣試點、跨境黃金結算……這些動作，早在13年前就有人在私下盤算「怎麼賺錢」。當全球貨幣秩序真的走向轉型時，那些最早看到方向的人，往往已默默完成布局。

愛潑斯坦或許因罪行身敗名裂，但這封電郵卻意外成為一個時代註腳：
當權力、金錢與地緣政治交織時，有人永遠在問同一個問題——「我們怎麼從中賺錢？」

2026年2月3日星期二

Silver: Emergency Halt of UBS-China Fund Tied to Global Selloff

By Vince Lanci

on January 31, 2026

China Sets The Price Now

GFN – SHANGHAI

Trading in a major China-listed silver fund was halted for a full session on January 30 as regulators moved to contain price distortions, while global silver prices fell sharply from record highs amid elevated volatility and tighter derivatives margin requirements.

China’s Shenzhen Stock Exchange suspended trading for the entire day on January 30 in the UBS SDIC Silver Futures Fund LOF, according to an official fund announcement. The notice stated that trading would be halted from the market open through the close as part of exchange risk-control measures.

“该基金将于2026年1月30日开市起停牌至收市。”
(“The fund will be suspended from market open to market close on January 30, 2026.”)
— SDIC Silver LOF official announcement, cited by Sina Finance

Chinese financial media reported that the halt followed sustained abnormal trading conditions, with the fund’s secondary-market price diverging materially from its net asset value. Coverage described the suspension as a regulatory response to excessive premiums and repeated risk warnings rather than a change in the underlying structure of the fund.

At the same time, silver prices in international markets recorded one of their largest single-day declines after reaching historic highs earlier in the week. Reuters reported a sharp reversal across precious metals during the January 30 session.

“Gold, silver and copper prices dropped sharply on Friday… Silver dropped 11% to $103.40, after peaking at $121.60.”
— Reuters, Metals Markets Wrap, January 30

Market data showed extreme intraday volatility, with spot silver falling back toward the $100 per ounce level after touching record highs the prior day.

Derivatives market conditions also tightened during the period. CME Group confirmed that it had raised margin requirements on silver futures contracts in response to heightened volatility and rapidly rising prices earlier in January.

“Margins will rise to 11% of notional from the current 9% for non-heightened risk profiles, while heightened risk profile margins will be raised to 12.1%.”
— CME Group margin notice, reported by Mining.com

CME described the changes as routine risk-management adjustments designed to ensure orderly market functioning during periods of exceptional price movement.

The January 30 session combined regulatory intervention in China-listed commodity funds, sharp price corrections in global silver markets, and tighter derivatives margin conditions, all occurring after a rapid, record-setting rally in precious metals earlier in the month.

Market Structure Mechanics

Market participants familiar with exchange-traded commodity products and futures market plumbing highlighted several structural effects stemming from the January 30 fund halt, emphasizing mechanics.

**silver: Emergency Halt Of Ubs China Fund Tied To Global Selloff

First, industry professionals noted that halting a fund while the underlying commodity continues to trade materially increases risk for fund holders. Traders pointed out that the absence of secondary-market pricing during the session removed the ability of the UBS trader to manage exposure dynamically, concentrating price and liquidity risk into the reopening window. As one derivatives trader put it, the halt “freezes the wrapper, not the asset,” leaving holders exposed to NAV moves they cannot respond to in real time.

Second, sources close to ETF and LOF operations said that such halts interrupt speculative momentum within the fund vehicle itself, particularly when the product has been trading at a significant premium to NAV. By suspending trading, (risk/pseudo) arbitrage and momentum flows are paused, and reopening typically forces a reconciliation between NAV, secondary-market pricing, and redemption demand. Market professionals stressed that this process often reduces speculative excess in the fund, even if it does not alter the underlying commodity’s physical supply and demand.

Third, traders active in futures markets emphasized that freezing the fund while leaving futures markets open can shift adjustment pressure elsewhere. With the fund temporarily non-redeemable, price discovery and risk transfer continue primarily through futures and related derivatives. Several participants noted that this dynamic can accelerate position adjustments in leveraged futures accounts, particularly when margin requirements are rising and volatility remains elevated. But it still does not guarantee the LOF will shrink its NAV premium

One seasoned trader close to the action speculated:

This fund will likely go the way of all funds like PSLV that attract interest.. it will be castrated financially. You are witnessing a stealth global capital control on Silver. Best you not use derivatives.

That trader concluded with: If you want to own silver.. Buy physical. A bird in your hand is worth 2 in the bush.

GoldFix Speculates:

Taken together, and assuming the facts reported are true, industry participants characterize the January 30 actions as possibly necessary from a market-order perspective to bring the fund back toward reasonable trading levels as China’s primary silver exposure vehicle, but structurally asymmetric in execution. By halting the fund while futures markets remained fully active, the adjustment burden was deferred and displaced rather than resolved. The fund’s premium may or may not have been reduced upon reopening com Monday, but during the session itself the broader silver market absorbed the pressure, contributing to a disorderly unwind of leveraged long positions in futures and related instruments.

While communication among international exchanges during periods of stress would not be surprising, the outcome was clear: the market was managed inefficiently in pursuit of fund-level stability, transferring stress outward into global futures markets. If nothing else, the episode reinforces a point long argued by GoldFix since 2023: the Shanghai price is now the global price and that physical is king.