石林
上周金價以1679.8元（美元．下同）收市，銀價則以32.16元收市，分別比前周漲升2.50％和2.84％。然而牛熊雙方對後市的爭辯不但沒有停止，甚至沒有較明確的結論，因為迄今金市尚未有嘗試挑戰大跌後的關鍵回升阻力位1703元，銀市亦仍受制於回升阻力位33.52元，兩者近期都在圖表上留下一個利淡的「上升旗形」的形態。
但另一方面，由於早前跌幅過甚，加上美國近期的經濟指標大都比預期好，似乎一掃衰退的憂慮，甚至有復蘇的迹象，因此看好金銀後市的意見在目前是較佔上風。
由於早前的大跌市，使金銀兩市出現不少罕見的圖表技術現象，這些在銀市尤為突出，敝欄現選一些最少見及最有爭議性的地方，提出來與讀者分享及討論。目前金銀市勢處於一個十字路口，故應注視其本身的最終取態。
銀市倉位正反論
近月銀價從44.18元掉頭大跌至26.05元，此浪跌幅高達41％，較5月初急挫35％的比率更有過之而無不及。然而此跌依然險守近三年上升通道的底線，與此同時，技術指標MACD亦跌至極端超賣區，惟其後向上穿越訊號，故有牛方分析者認為這是極為利好的訊息。
另有研究好淡雙方倉位（COT）的分析員指出，前周業者在期銀市場中沽倉對好倉的比率降至1.47的歷來低水平，淨沽倉數量降至2003年以來的最低水平，還有淨沽倉數量佔未平倉合約總量的比率亦降至同年以來的最低。這都是一些極為利好的訊息，因為這是大投機者重新入市買入的最好時機。
可是我們到目前為止，未見到大投機者積極重投銀市買入，COMEX期銀市場的未平倉合約量（O.I.）只及高峰期的57％，大投機者的淨好倉量更只及高峰期的17％，銀價本身亦無重大突破。認真而客觀的分析者指出，業者沽倉量低或其佔比率小，並不表示銀價一定回升，由1986年至2000年就曾先後八次出現這樣的現象，當時銀價是續跌的，那是熊市的特徵。
此外我們將2007年9月至2008年8月的銀價圖表，與2009年10月至今的銀價圖表相對比，可發覺兩者形狀十分相似。而當年的圖表告訴我們：銀價從21.44元高位下瀉到12.20元，只反彈回見14.13元，其後兩個月再跌至8.40元才真正見底回升。
最近銀價從26.05元近期低位反彈，迄今仍受制於33.52元，若稍後銀價無法升越此位至34元地帶，我們不應鬆懈警覺。銀價須重返36.9元之上，才算重拾中性市勢狀態。
留意日內能否破困局
銀市表現淡薄，是對未來經濟增長不樂觀和通縮心態佔上風的體現。此還體現在最近鉑金價格大幅低於黃金價格方面，最大的逆差達157元，到上周末仍逆差120元。即使在2008年10月金融海嘯最低谷時，鉑金價仍比黃金價高出70元，故我們現不宜抱衰退已過、復蘇已來的看法。有人說現做「買鉑金沽黃金」的套戥將有利可圖，但目前是未見其利、先見其害，因為買賣合約有浮動利潤者不能提取，有浮動虧損者則要追補按金，況且我們不知兩者價逆差會否進一步擴大。
慶幸今年金市圖表的形狀並不與2008年時太過相似，但目前仍處於本文首段說的困局，我們日內要看金價能否在1680元以上收市，以及能否一試1703元至1720元的阻力帶。金價須重返1763元之上才算回復中性市勢，相反若跌破1625元要倍加警惕。
本月29日為「木星衝」（最接近地球），往年在此天象前後一段期間金價偏好機率是較大，今年則要看金銀兩市能否借助此機率，擺脫有如2008年10月最終還有一跌的命運了。
2011年10月17日星期一
7 U.S. Cities on the Verge of Bankruptcy
Posted by Mike Tirone - Friday, October 14th, 2011
The harsh economic climate is changing. The time has come when citizens and companies aren’t the only ones being forced to file for bankruptcy…
As of 1937, only 629 municipal bankruptcies under Chapter 9 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code have been filed. Most recent of these is Orange County, California, which filed for bankruptcy back in 1994, and Vallejo, California, following in 2008.
Is your city or town next to fall onto the sword and file for Chapter 9?
The District's deficit was cut in half in 2010 due to tax increases, but Mayor Vincent Gray's budget plan calls for $127.2 million in tax and fee increases within income, parking, off-premise alcohol, and franchise taxes – in addition to public transportation fare increases, while cutting economic development, public safety, public education, and social services.
Mayor Michael Bloomberg has already begun to address the FY2012 deficit by calling for layoffs in all city agencies, closing 20 fire departments during night hours, and reducing services for seniors, libraries, and cultural centers. Bloomberg dismissed around 6,000 of the city’s 75,000 teachers in June before the state passed its $66 billion budget with note to no more teacher layoffs. The New York City Mayor's office has predicted the city's budget gap could rise to $4.4 billion.
Chicago's former mayor Richard Daley destroyed the Windy City’s finances by using up nearly the entire revenue from a long-term lease of the local parking system and airport. The lease was supposed to last until 2018, but only made it to 2010. Chicago hopes to build a city-owned casino to raise revenue. Meanwhile, newly-elected Mayor Rahm Emanuel's first budget proposal was unveiled and focuses on large cuts. His new plan consolidates police and fire headquarters, reduces library hours, and takes out 2,000 vacant jobs – some of them police – out of the budget. Emanuel’s plans include the layoffs of more than 500 people.
The City of Cincinnati has been keeping much of its fiscal policies quiet, only briefly announcing budget cuts and layoff plans for the past two years. Many believe the city’s limited announcements are in preparation to file for bankruptcy… Mayor Mark Mallory has been holding off discussion of the proposal set forth that the city will not lay off police officers in 2011 or 2012. Mallory is using his “campaign season” as an excuse to avoid addressing his plan to lay off police officers in the next two years while outsource the force to the neighboring city of Hamilton and dismantling the Office of Environmental Quality.
Newly-elected Mayor of Camden, Dana Redd, came into power and began ruling with a strong fist, but she still has a long way to go to dig the nation's most dangerous city out of deficit… In her 2011 budget proposal, Redd called for departmental budget cuts of 24%, a $4 million reduction in operating costs, a freeze on all non-essential spending, $7.5 million in cost reductions to the Fire Department, and worst of all, a $14 million reduction to the Camden Police Department – which in turn, cut the entire force in half.
Despite cuts within the public and higher education sectors and fire engine cutbacks, San Diego is still in a deep hole. The fire stations had thousands of blackouts as the cuts rotated throughout different stations to save $11.5 million the current fiscal year. Weekly recreation center hours will be reduced to 20 hours, and the equivalent of 77 full-time positions were cut, saving $6.5 million. The city proposed 6% pay cuts for employees and has cut out 120 full-time positions.
San Jose Mayor Chuck Reed said it best, “Whether or not we declare an emergency, we're in an emergency. We just laid off police officers. Last year, we laid off firefighters. We've closed libraries, community centers. We are in an emergency and we need to take action.” Reed also looks to close the deficit by reducing services and controlling the cost of retirement.
Mayor Edwin Lee presented his $6.8 billion budget proposal aiming to close the $380 million shortfall caused by growth in employee benefit costs and loss of revenues from state and federal government. The city will cut San Francisco's deficit by forgoing scheduled pay increases for city employees – saving $20.2 million – and enacted a hiring freeze.
Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa closed a $336 million shortfall with large cuts to the police and fire departments while also cutting $19 million from Recreation and Parks Department. Also, Los Angeles' homelessness programs reduced funding by 10%, and permanent cuts to city spending have been made while reducing funds for public safety, library operations, and street preservation and maintenance.
*Combining all these four California cities, you get a deficit of $1.01 billion, a budget of $19 billion, and an annual budget shortfall of 5.3%. The unemployment rate of the four cities totals 10.8% or 1.572 million unemployed.
The harsh economic climate is changing. The time has come when citizens and companies aren’t the only ones being forced to file for bankruptcy…
Major cities are among the ranks of those in dire straits.
On Wednesday, Pennsylvania's capital city Harrisburg opted for the rarely used Chapter 9 of the U.S. bankruptcy code.
The current struggle is between the state and city of Harrisburg over control of the city, whose population of around 50,000 people had been having difficulties paying for critical services for over the past year. On top of that, the city has incurred as much as $458 million in debt and several lawsuits with creditors.
“The city does not have the ability to pay those money judgments or any significant portion thereof and still provide health and safety services to its citizens and other essential government services,” said Mark Schwartz, an attorney hired by the City Council.
According to Schwartz, bankruptcy gives the city “bargaining power” with its creditors, municipal workers, retirees, and the state.
"Municipal bankruptcies are rare. But if Harrisburg is successful in winning concessions with bondholders, pensioners and other stakeholders, it could lead other financially troubled cities to seek bankruptcy."As of 1937, only 629 municipal bankruptcies under Chapter 9 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code have been filed. Most recent of these is Orange County, California, which filed for bankruptcy back in 1994, and Vallejo, California, following in 2008.
Is your city or town next to fall onto the sword and file for Chapter 9?
The 7 U.S. Cities on the Verge of Bankruptcy
Washington, D.C.
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| City | Population: | Deficit through 2012: | Budget in Fiscal year 2012: | Annual Budget Shortfall: | Deficit per Capita: | 2011 Unemployment Rate |
| Washington, DC | 599,657 | $322 million | $9.6 billion | 3.4% | $537 | 11.1% |
Still, Gray's plan will leave the Washington Metro Area in the red. He says the budget would inflict some pain: “[It’s] a tough budget, I'm not going to represent it as anything else,” he admits. Yet little more than a week after his budget plan was announced, he was arrested for protesting that Congress (which oversees the DC budget and laws) was taking away autonomy granted to the city for the last several years, meaning it will be banned from spending city money on things such as HIV prevention.
Detroit, Michigan
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| City | Population: | Deficit through 2012: | Budget in Fiscal year 2012: | Annual Budget Shortfall: | Deficit per Capita: | 2011 Unemployment Rate |
| Detroit, Michigan | 713,777 | $155 million | $3.11 billion | 5% | $217 | 12.9% |
Recently cited in a Reuters poll as highest potential candidate for municipal bankruptcy, Detroit mayor Dave Bing has tried to work with the Republican-controlled Michigan Legislature – but has struggled. His budget-balancing proposals include a higher tax on Detroit casinos, pension reforms, the suspension of state drive licenses for three unpaid Detroit parking tickets, and continuing to collect income and utility taxes. With the city’s dropping population comes less money generated from taxes, sinking the Motor City in even deeper debt.
Honolulu, Hawaii
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| City | Population: | Deficit through 2012: | Budget in Fiscal year 2012: | Annual Budget Shortfall: | Deficit per Capita: | 2011 Unemployment Rate | |
| Honolulu, Hawaii | 905,034 | $100 million | $1.93 billion | 5.1% | $110 | 5.2% | |
Honolulu Mayor Peter Carlisle was investigated by the local Honolulu Civil Beat which went on to reveal the Mayor had budgeted more than $43 million to fund 1,095 unfilled jobs for 2012. Carlisle’s first budget plan set out to tackle long-term debt; he said he would raise taxes and fees while asking unionized city workers for 5% pay cuts.
New York City, New York
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| City | Population: | Deficit through 2012: | Budget in Fiscal year 2012: | Annual Budget Shortfall: | Deficit per Capita: | 2011 Unemployment Rate | |
| New York City, NY | 8.1 million | $4.58 billion | $65.7 billion | 7% | $565 | 8.7% | |
Mayor Michael Bloomberg has already begun to address the FY2012 deficit by calling for layoffs in all city agencies, closing 20 fire departments during night hours, and reducing services for seniors, libraries, and cultural centers. Bloomberg dismissed around 6,000 of the city’s 75,000 teachers in June before the state passed its $66 billion budget with note to no more teacher layoffs. The New York City Mayor's office has predicted the city's budget gap could rise to $4.4 billion.
Chicago, Illinois
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| City | Population: | Deficit through 2012: | Budget in Fiscal year 2012: | Annual Budget Shortfall: | Deficit per Capita: | 2011 Unemployment Rate | |
| Chicago, Illinois | 2.7 million | $636 million | $8.2 billion | 7.7% | $2353 | 10.2% | |
Chicago's former mayor Richard Daley destroyed the Windy City’s finances by using up nearly the entire revenue from a long-term lease of the local parking system and airport. The lease was supposed to last until 2018, but only made it to 2010. Chicago hopes to build a city-owned casino to raise revenue. Meanwhile, newly-elected Mayor Rahm Emanuel's first budget proposal was unveiled and focuses on large cuts. His new plan consolidates police and fire headquarters, reduces library hours, and takes out 2,000 vacant jobs – some of them police – out of the budget. Emanuel’s plans include the layoffs of more than 500 people.
Cincinnati, Ohio
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| City | Population: | Deficit through 2012: | Budget in Fiscal year 2012: | Annual Budget Shortfall: | Deficit per Capita: | 2011 Unemployment Rate | |
| Cincinnati, Ohio | 331,285 | $60 million | $1.2 billion | 20% | $181 | 8.7% | |
The City of Cincinnati has been keeping much of its fiscal policies quiet, only briefly announcing budget cuts and layoff plans for the past two years. Many believe the city’s limited announcements are in preparation to file for bankruptcy… Mayor Mark Mallory has been holding off discussion of the proposal set forth that the city will not lay off police officers in 2011 or 2012. Mallory is using his “campaign season” as an excuse to avoid addressing his plan to lay off police officers in the next two years while outsource the force to the neighboring city of Hamilton and dismantling the Office of Environmental Quality.
Camden, New Jersey
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| City | Population: | Deficit through 2012: | Budget in Fiscal year 2012: | Annual Budget Shortfall: | Deficit per Capita: | 2011 Unemployment Rate | |
| Camden, New Jersey | 517,234 | $28 million | $138 million | 20.2% | $54 | 11.1% | |
Newly-elected Mayor of Camden, Dana Redd, came into power and began ruling with a strong fist, but she still has a long way to go to dig the nation's most dangerous city out of deficit… In her 2011 budget proposal, Redd called for departmental budget cuts of 24%, a $4 million reduction in operating costs, a freeze on all non-essential spending, $7.5 million in cost reductions to the Fire Department, and worst of all, a $14 million reduction to the Camden Police Department – which in turn, cut the entire force in half.
Bonus list: Practically every major city in California: San Diego, San Jose, San Francisco, Los Angeles
San Diego
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| City | Population: | Deficit through 2012: | Budget in Fiscal year 2012: | Annual Budget Shortfall: | Deficit per Capita: | 2011 Unemployment Rate | |
| San Diego | 3 million | $56.7 million | $2.8 billion | 2% | $19 | 10.2% | |
Despite cuts within the public and higher education sectors and fire engine cutbacks, San Diego is still in a deep hole. The fire stations had thousands of blackouts as the cuts rotated throughout different stations to save $11.5 million the current fiscal year. Weekly recreation center hours will be reduced to 20 hours, and the equivalent of 77 full-time positions were cut, saving $6.5 million. The city proposed 6% pay cuts for employees and has cut out 120 full-time positions.
San Jose
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| City | Population: | Deficit through 2012: | Budget in Fiscal year 2012: | Annual Budget Shortfall: | Deficit per Capita: | 2011 Unemployment Rate | |
| San Jose | 894,943 | $115 million | $2.5 billion | 4.6% | $128 | 10% | |
San Jose Mayor Chuck Reed said it best, “Whether or not we declare an emergency, we're in an emergency. We just laid off police officers. Last year, we laid off firefighters. We've closed libraries, community centers. We are in an emergency and we need to take action.” Reed also looks to close the deficit by reducing services and controlling the cost of retirement.
San Francisco
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| City | Population: | Deficit through 2012: | Budget in Fiscal year 2012: | Annual Budget Shortfall: | Deficit per Capita: | 2011 Unemployment Rate | |
| San Francisco | 808,976 | $380 million ($480mil for '12-'13, $642mil for '13-'14) | $6.8 billion | 5.5% | $470 | 9.7% | |
Mayor Edwin Lee presented his $6.8 billion budget proposal aiming to close the $380 million shortfall caused by growth in employee benefit costs and loss of revenues from state and federal government. The city will cut San Francisco's deficit by forgoing scheduled pay increases for city employees – saving $20.2 million – and enacted a hiring freeze.
Los Angeles
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| City | Population: | Deficit through 2012: | Budget in Fiscal year 2012: | Annual Budget Shortfall: | Deficit per Capita: | 2011 Unemployment Rate | |
| Los Angeles | 9.8 million | $457 million | $6.9 billion | 6.6% | $46 | 13.3% | |
Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa closed a $336 million shortfall with large cuts to the police and fire departments while also cutting $19 million from Recreation and Parks Department. Also, Los Angeles' homelessness programs reduced funding by 10%, and permanent cuts to city spending have been made while reducing funds for public safety, library operations, and street preservation and maintenance.
*Combining all these four California cities, you get a deficit of $1.01 billion, a budget of $19 billion, and an annual budget shortfall of 5.3%. The unemployment rate of the four cities totals 10.8% or 1.572 million unemployed.
In June, Governor of California Jerry Brown signed the most austere fiscal package in decades. The package contains $15 billion dollars in cuts including:
$5 billion in health and human services
$1.3 billion in higher education
$1 billion in corrections
$350 million in the state's court system
$700 million in state employment compensation and governmental efficiencies
$400 million in California Community Colleges
The budget also has a clause for $2.5 billion in triggered cuts, meaning if anticipated revenue doesn't equate, there will be additional mid-year reductions in public education, public safety, higher education, and health and human services.
If it seems like a handful of California cities are in a financial bind… the entire Golden State is actually teetering on the edge of bankruptcy... as are many other of the major cities in the United States.
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