8月全球15大黃金持倉總量約達3.7萬噸黃金

週四(9月1日)消息，據外媒報導，在全球經濟和股市充滿各種不確定因素下，黃金價格今年已上漲了約26%。

以上是根據世界黃金協會的8月報告的全球15大黃金持有者及其黃金持有量：
包括央行、國際機構、政府或地區在內的最大黃金持有者在全球黃金儲備的佔有總量約16.5%，總持有量達3.7萬噸左右。

Emerging market central banks boost gold holdings in July

Reuters 
 Wednesday, August 31, 2011

Colombia joined the ranks of official-sector gold buyers in July for the first time in 13 years, along with Russia, mirroring the trend among emerging central banks to diversify their currency portfolios.

International Monetary Fund data released on Wednesday showed that Russia, which is already the world's eighth largest official holder of bullion, raised its reserves by 4.42 tonnes in July to 841.131 tonnes, while Colombia added 2.3 tonnes to bring its reserves to 9.14 tonnes, its first increase since March 1998.

The gold price, which on Wednesday was last down 0.6 percent at $1,826.49 an ounce at 1145 GMT, has risen by nearly 30 percent this year, fuelled by a sagging dollar, waning confidence in the resilience of the global economy, and purchases by central banks , particularly in emerging market countries, over the past few years.

http://www.reuters.com/

恒指合理P/E＜5？

轉載
老畢上周四引述了舊金山聯儲銀行兩名經人Zheng Liu及Mark M.Spiegel的《經信》(EconomicLetter)，當中以美國1954年至今的M/O(middle-to-old)比例──即40至49歲人口對60至69歲人口的比例，來解釋同期的標普五百P/E──即市盈率。

該圖兩條數列看似關系甚強，但M/O似比P/E滯後；按兩名經人的年度數據計，M/O滯後P/E兩年，相關系數逾0.8。以人口解股市有理論基礎的，因人口影響經濟，經濟決定股市；既然如此，今次就將之應用到本港情況。留意原文M0是對數的。

結果顯示，恒指P/E與本港ln(M/O)長遠確有點似，但後者滯後前者達四、五年。一如兩名經人所做，這里也為未來「合理P/E」作個預測，但基礎是港府對未來廿多年的人口分布估算。

呵呵，得出未來三十年的合理P/E，竟然低於5倍。老畢，點呀？點算呀？