2013年11月13日星期三

ChiGold – Just How Much Non-China-Based Gold Reserves/Deposits Does China Control?

Currently China holds (or more accurately, is believed to hold) $3.66T in foreign reserves – assumed to be primarily in US Treasuries. While the total comes from PBOC, the composition of the assets held is speculative. There is also, of course, the ever-popular 1,054.1 metric tons of Chinese gold reserve:
China hasn’t announced any changes to state gold reserves since authorities in 2009 said bullion holdings totaled 1,054.1 metric tons.” — though the Bloomberg article does grudgingly acknowledge that there ‘may be some discrepancy’ between the reported end-2008 figure and current reality…
So, what’s up? Is China content to ride the status quo, keep buying foreign currencies to keep the yuan down? Is it moving to advance the cause of the SDR by pushing for inclusion in it, along with Russia? What, if anything do the above have to do with the build-out of Chinese gold production capability, and in-country reserves? 1. How much non-China-based gold reserves/deposits does China control?
2. What is the rate of production of the COMBINED Chinese-controlled gold mining operations worldwide?
The data sources I stumbled upon present a remarkable sketch of the lengths China is going to in order to secure resources around the world.

From JY896, TFMetalsReport:

As I started digging further, I came up against what any average investor faces on a daily basis – it is extremely difficult to find specific, current, reliable information that is presented in just the way one is seeking it. If it HAPPENS to be available, it is an expensive report to acquire. The questions I was seeking answers for:
  1. How much non-China-based gold reserves/deposits does China control?
  2. What is the rate of production of the COMBINED Chinese-controlled gold mining operations worldwide?
I was not able to find all of the answers, but will try to share the breadcrumb trail that I eventually traced, and the data sources I stumbled upon. They present (what was to me) a remarkable sketch of the lengths China is going to in order to secure resources around the world.
Here’s a Forbes/Kitco article where Jim Rickards and our very own house favorite Jeffrey Christian agree on something:
“What the Chinese want is to have the Yuan in the SDR basket but not open up their capital account,” he said. “That is a backdoor way for the Yuan to be a de facto reserve currency without having to give up control.” – Rickards
They BOTH insist that:
“The two analysts also agree that expectations the Yuan will become a reserve currency on its own are extremely overblown.”
What is brilliant about THIS particular Forbes article is that it presents quite enough half-truths to completely confuse and mislead interested investors, WITHOUT being a flat-out lie.
“Rickards said he thinks China has not updated its reserves because they continue to buy gold. He said China has a pattern announcing their reserves every six years, after the bank has reached its target. […] On the contrary, Christian said that he suspects that one of the reasons why the bank hasn’t updated its reserves is because it’s not buying that much gold or as much gold as people expect.”
BRILLIANT!
OK, onto another option: China is working in conjunction with the other BRICS nations and to a degree with the Eurozone to construct the fabled gold-based trade settlement system that the Jackass is always going on about? One of the indicators, the extensive and growing network of yuan-based trade settlement swaps with nearly all major Chinese trading partners is well established. The other indicator  of massive gold inflows into China has also been thoroughly documented.

But what I was really interested in stems from this table from the USGS (reserves being deposits in ground):

Mine production


2011
2012 (est.)
2013 (est.)
Reserves
United States
234
230

3,000
Australia
258
250

7,400
Brazil
62
56

2,600
Canada
97
102

920
Chile
45
45

3,900
China
362
370
400+
1,900
Ghana
80
89

1,600
Indonesia
96
95

3,000
Mexico
84
87

1,400
Papua New Guinea
66
60

1,200
Peru
164
165

2,200
Russia
200
205

5,000
South Africa
181
170

6,000
Uzbekistan
91
90

1,700
Other countries
640
645

10,000
World total (rounded)
2,660
2,700

52,000


Note that China is the largest producer of gold in the world (has been for 7 years running now – estimated in italics my addition from reports below) — but at current rate set to exhaust its reserves in 4-5 years.
Some other good starting points:
PriceWaterhouseCoopers has a global Gold Price Report, and Thomson Reuters GFMS publishes an annual report (I am not sure they meant to share it, but here it is: Gold Survey 2013). The former is compiled from a survey of gold mining companies, and has the following passage:
“China is keen on gold for two main reasons:
  • The life of mine for China’s gold mines is low. To ensure they have secure access to gold in the future China is looking at promising gold acquisitions abroad.
  • The Chinese Central Bank has increased its gold held. Thus, it is expected to support state-owned entities acquiring additional gold assets both in China and abroad.”
  • [What is left out, of course, is any reference to any possible upcoming fundamental shift in the role of gold in Chinese monetary policy.]
The report has interesting, if anecdotal, examples of Chinese mining expansion, and both gold and silver data.
The other, GFMS report is more comprehensive, tackling everything from cost of production, composition and direction of imports/exports from major producing regions, GOFO and much more. Definitely worth a look. It includes this table:
TOP
20
GOLD MINING COUNTRIES

Production (t) Change


2011
2012
12.H1 13.H1 y-o-y
China
371.0
413.1
182.1
197.8
9%
Australia
258.6
251.4
124.8
126.9
2%
United States
233.0
231.3
112.3
110.1
-2%
Russia
215.6
230.1
89.5
96.3
8%
South Africa
202.0
177.3
93.4
87.4
-6%
Peru
187.6
180.4
92.8
84.4
-9%
Canada
107.8
108.0
51.1
60.9
19%
Ghana
91.0
95.8
54.3
51.9
-4%
Mexico
88.6
102.8
52.3
49.6
-5%
Indonesia
120.1
89.0
45.8
42.6
-7%
Uzbekistan
71.4
73.3
35.9
39.2
9%
Brazil
67.3
67.3
32.3
36.4
13%
Papua New Guinea
63.5
57.2
28.8
31.0
8%
Chile
44.5
48.6
23.0
25.4
10%
Argentina
59.1
54.6
26.7
24.5
-8%
Mali
43.5
50.3
24.2
23.9
-1%
Tanzania
49.6
49.1
24.6
21.2
-14%
Kazakhstan
36.7
40.0
18.6
21.1
14%
Philippines
37.1
41.1
20.4
20.1
-1%
Colombia
37.5
39.1
19.6
20.1
2%
Rest of World
453.8
464.3
222.0
244.7
10%
World
2,839.10
2,864.00
1,374.40
1,415.60
3%
Source: Thomson Reuters GFMS

It has another, completely unintentionally hilarious table on page 5 of the report, which is an apt illustration of the absurdity of our circumstance: between 2012 and 2013, global supply and demand each expanded by 1.6% (nevermind the doubt that might arise from how the components are calculated) – but during the same period gold price dropped by 13.4% in USD/oz terms. Yeah, and these are open and fairly traded markets, and the USD has gained over 13% in purchasing power in the last year.
But returning to our story – take a moment to go back up and compare these lists of gold-producing countries with the map below.
There is this interesting little infographic from Stratfor (along with a brief report on the topic of China and African investments) — open in new tab for full size:

Chinese Investment in Africa is republished with permission of Stratfor.”
There appears to be strategic, long-term and quite extensive project underway for the ‘benevolent colonization’ of Africa – and wherever else has resources:
Meanwhile, trade data shows that just three commodities – iron ore, oil and soy – and their derivatives – still account for 80 percent of Brazil’s exports to China. […]
Derek Scissors, an expert on Chinese outward investment at the American Enterprise Institute, a Washington think tank, said the sudden spurt in investment, followed by a backlash and then a withdrawal, was “absolutely classic Chinese behavior” that also occurred in sub-Saharan Africa in recent years.
“What happens,” Scissors said, “is you start getting people saying ‘Wait a minute, we are running a huge trade deficit with China. They are investing $20 billion and grabbing up all our resources. Are we a colony?’” – Reuters
Wherever one turns, it seems like Chinese corporations are trying to buy resources, some of more interest to us here than others:
China National Gold Group Corp. is considering investing in mines owned by Robert Friedland’s Ivanhoe Mines Ltd., including the Platreef project in South Africa, a person with knowledge of the situation said. […]
State-owned China National Gold has also looked at other Ivanhoe projects located in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Gabon, though prefers more developed countries like South Africa, the person said. No terms for a purchase of Platreef have been finalized, and China National Gold could instead consider buying a stake in Vancouver-based Ivanhoe itself, the person said.” – Vancouver Sun
Australia also happens to have a relatively low population density as a country, and lots of resources:
“Australia’s business-friendly conditions make it a priority for Chinese outward direct investment, according to a recent HSBC survey. The survey reveals a large proportion of Chinese companies are expanding offshore into the manufacturing and retail trade sectors – rather than mining as expected; and are prioritising markets like Australia that have favourable business and political conditions.
These insights are drawn from a survey by HSBC1 based on responses from more than 250 Chinese companies that have built or are considering building a presence overseas. Amongst those surveyed, 17% were large conglomerates with the remainder being of a corporate or middle market size.” — our very good friends at HSBC
The Chinese media like to portray it thus (there are some who say not all parties involved agree with the depiction):
 
There is a crucial paragraph from the article that struck me:
People don’t understand the mathematical mechanics of compound interest. China’s growth might have slowed slightly but the base is huge. Last year China added another Australia to its GDP, by 2018 this will be another Germany and by 2021, another Japan and that will be every year. The volume demand for resources will not decline,” he says.” – People’s Daily
Is it possible the Chinese have finally truly mastered this understanding of the exponential function? Could it be they are preparing for the next “doubling of the bacteria in the soda bottle”? Are the ghost cities in China and elsewhere (Angola) truly follies of central planning and an overflow of excess capacity?

Or do they represent a decades-spanning plan to increase Chinese Lebensraum?
Some examples of how this is playing out across the continent (again, refer to Africa map above):
“”The Chinese have changed Zambia,” said Nelson Mwendabai, a retired civil servant who ticked off Chinese-backed projects: a railway between Tanzania and Zambia, new roads, schools, clinics and stadiums. Mwendabai said: “We should just accept that they are our friends.”
Zambian President Michael Sata criticized the Chinese presence as an opposition leader, seeking to harness nationalist unhappiness with Chinese accused of taking jobs from Zambians by engaging in low-pay jobs such as pushing wheelbarrows at construction sites. He changed his tune after his Patriotic Front party won elections in 2011. In April, Sata went to China on an 11-day state visit, soon after new Chinese ruler Xi Jinping took office.
“I have come to say ‘thank you’ for the work the Chinese are doing in Zambia,” Sata told Xi.” – ABC News
See, campaign contributions and “other contributions” are a very strategic and lucrative investment everywhere in the world…
“Tanzania has signed contracts worth $1.7 billion with Chinese companies to construct power plants and housing units in east Africa’s second-largest economy. […]Tanzania signed a framework agreement in May with China Merchants Holdings (International) Co Ltd for the construction of a new port, special economic zone and railway network that could involve more than $10 billion.
China, which built a railway linking Tanzania and Zambia in the 1960s and 1970s, is also financing a $1.2 billion 532-km (330-mile) natural gas pipeline from the south east of the country to the commercial capital Dar es Salaam.
In 2011 China’s Sichuan Hongda Co. Ltd signed a $3 billion deal with Tanzania to mine coal and iron ore.
Chinese companies are also eyeing Tanzania’s natural gas reserves and are expected to bid for oil and gas blocks in the country, according to the African country’s energy ministry.” — Reuters
It has come to a point where Chinese gold prospectors are swarming African goldfields in a 19th- century-like gold rush:
“Ghana has been inundated with migrant gold miners in recent years and the vast majority — an estimated 50,000 — are Chinese from Shanglin county. The Chinese miners claim they were operating in legal partnership with local Ghanaian landowners (although many admit to not having valid documentation). Hundreds of miners, including Yang, were rounded up and deported a couple of weeks ago.”TIME
There is a reasonably well-rounded landscape report from the Economist here – while dated, it contains a nice quote from W.H. Auden (no, I had no idea who that was, either*):
“I’ll love you, dear, I’ll love you
Till China and Africa meet,
And the river jumps over the mountain
And the salmon sing in the street.”
Apparently, hell has frozen over and W.H. Auden has now left his paramour.
* – http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/W._H._Auden
In an interview on Bullionvault, Matt Badiali of Stansberry & Associates gives the following, in my opinion very astute, summary of China’s approach:
“We have been watching China’s investments in Africa for a while now. China is spending billions of Dollars in Africa in very specific ways: financing power plants, building railroads and developing other infrastructure plays.
Why? If you want to build a mine, you need electric power. You need to be able to get ore from the mine to a port. China is laying the groundwork for mine development all over Africa.
Look also at what China is buying: one of the world’s largest undeveloped uranium deposits, bullion and shares in African gold miners, from major mining companies to partnerships with juniors and exploration projects.
At the Mines and Money Conference in Hong Kong, I asked representatives of major Chinese investment banks and funds if gold is a major target for Chinese investment in Africa. Across the board, they all said yes.”
It’s not JUST gold, you understand – from building solar plants in Chile, to becoming the primary trade partner of seemingly all resource-rich countries developing/developed alike, China has been busily weaving its web. The game afoot is on larger scale and for larger stakes than most people seem to realize:
“an estimated 259,000 Chinese nationals in Angola are mainly construction workers helping to rebuild the country after a devastating 27-year civil war that ruined much of its infrastructure”Ghanaweb (also an interesting, longer article on Chinese involvement in Ghana)
When an economy can just point, and send nearly 300K workers to the middle of Africa in the space of a few years, one has to wonder a bit as to whether their planning and execution is really as flawed as Western analysts are often prone to thinking. The millions of empty apartments/offices built in the ghost cities COULD be an example of the irrational excesses of central planning gone wrong. But even if they WERE,  they could now become outposts, forts on hills, trading posts in native country. Inside China, they could be meant to support the continued migration of rural workers to the cities (or massive in-migration of population from elsewhere?), in places like Angola they can serve as stakes in the ground. A more optimistic viewpoint might be the expectation of the Chinese planners that in the future, raw materials and resources will become significantly more valuable, creating the jobs and thus income necessary for large masses of people to move to such environments. And if you have 300K citizens in another country, are you not then bound to ensure the safety and security of that expatriate community, at some point – with all the options available to a nascent global power?
While building a megapolis in the middle of Inner Mongolia (think Nevada, only the desert is much bigger) might seem eccentric, look at these pictures and tell me this was done as a budget-consuming, megalomaniacal, insane scheme of a few local party officials desperate to generate tangible growth, no matter the irrationality (courtesy of TIME photographer Michael C. Brown, see link above):



As another photo essay (regrettably of lower resolution, but more extensive in pictures) on ghost cities notes:
China wants to move more than 400 million people from the countryside to the city in the next 10 years. […] “social engineering on the grandest of scales.” ” – Business Insider
So, what’s the take-away here? That “the Chinese are coming” is something everyone should have realized by now – their speed and impact is what is in question. My view is that insofar as they are able to pull off a social transformation and internal development akin to what has already been demonstrated several times (with tragic side-effects, alas) in the history of central planning from Lenin onward, they are in fact positioning themselves to be able to vault to a position of true global leadership in a relatively rapid timeframe. Whether or not they are waiting for (or waiting to initiate) any global monetary reset, it could be argued that they are certainly PREPARING FOR it. While we all (should) know the officially maintained figure of ~1000 ton gold reserve on record for China is bogus, how much really IS in China proper, or in ‘deep storage’ (aka minable deposits) under direct or indirect Chinese control today? With production in China itself making up 14.4% of the global supply in 2012, what is the true figure today – and what is it when including the amounts shipped back from territories further afield?
I didn’t have a chance to fully get the answers to all of these questions, but I’m hoping there are some among you who can round out the tale. But I would say, we will be getting used to images like these — not just in Africa:

I have been left with the impression that, given the opportunity and the right set of conditions (which the Chinese leadership seems very diligent in working to bring about), this setup will allow China to turn on afterburners and switch its (now more distributed) economy to even higher gear at a ‘moment’s notice’ (relatively speaking). And of course, that there seems to be zero confusion on the part of China and her people (as a whole) on what represents wealth and real money.
As always, keep stacking.



Appendix:
Eye-candy on the above topics:
Infographic on Global Gold Mines and Deposits Ranking 2012 from Visual Capitalist
Infographic on the evolution of modern Chinese relationship with gold (ZH blurb here, original from The Real Asset Co. here)
Some resources for silver (forgive the Silver Institute links – sometimes the gatekeepers can have useful data):
Global silver supply/demand tables
World Silver Survey 2013: A Summary produced for The Silver Institute by Thomson Reuters GFMS
The Chinese Silver Market (produced for The Silver Institute by Thomson Reuters GFMS)

In searching for illustrations for this post, I started out by looking for images from Looper (worth a look if you are a fan of time-travel sci-fi and/or are a diehard Bruce Willis fan – hitmen in the future get paid with silver & gold bars from an even more distant future). It turned out I couldn’t find one of the protagonist’s floor safe filled with silver bars so these will have to do:



http://www.silverdoctors.com/ 

法巴:金價逼近懸崖

法國巴黎銀行認為,金價正逼近懸崖,至於多快跌落懸崖,則由黃金生產商加速對沖活動的速度決定。

    
投資者對現貨黃金ETF的需求依然疲軟。即便黃金期貨持倉數據顯示投機者淨多頭頭寸出現反彈,這也難以抵消黃金ETF需求疲軟的影響。隨著近期美元走強,美國經濟進一步復甦的前景、及美債收益率走高進一步支撐美元,我們預計來自官方部門的買盤不足以提振黃金價格。實物金方面,諸如印度、土耳其等國家的進口需求不太可能成為推動金價的實質性因素,因為這些國家貨幣繼續貶值。單就印度而言,不僅是疲軟的貨幣,政府也出台政策減少黃金進口。如果我們的分析是正確的,金價是否進一步下跌的不確定因素依然是生產商的對沖。黃金生產商的股價近期表現不佳(下圖可見),若金價跌至1000美元關口,黃金生產商可能開始啟動或加速對沖,增加市場供應,這將對金價構成進一步的下行壓力。





  



  值得一提的是,這必然不是黃金多頭想看到的:生產商越是預期未來需求下降,從而選擇對沖,整條收益率曲線就越可能轉向現貨升水的結構。因為對沖是受對未來需求不足的擔憂所推動,實質上產生的影響是把未來的銷售提前到今天來——抓住今天的機會逢高拋售。

    
在這種情況下,現貨溢價可不是個看漲的指標,而是根本上看空的信號。

    
與其說是受今天意外走高的實物金需求提振,不如說是期貨銷售的需求以外走高。

    
最終,市場要糾正這種現貨溢價的話,並不是通過增加今天的實物金供應(這是應對現貨溢價的常規方式),而是在沒有調整需求與供應的情況下,把走低的期貨價格轉移至今天的現貨市場——這意味著現貨金價獨自下跌。

    
如果市場誤把現貨溢價解讀為看漲信號,那麼實物金供應通常會增加。若真如此,那麼現貨溢價之後的價格修正幅度要更大。

Gold – A Time for Everything

Armstrong Economics


QUESTION: 

Martin,
I really appreciate all the work you do and make accessible to the common man.  Anyway, you keep saying gold will really take off in 2015/2016 which corresponds to a downturn in the ECM.  Since we are now in a downturn until 2014 albeit minor, why is gold going down and not rising if only slightly?
Thanks for your time and consideration.
Dave


ANSWER: Gold is basing – not falling apart. Moving sideways in a bear market is the equivalent of a rally. The old saying, what will not go up, goes down twice as hard. This applies to gold. Gold keeps falling below 1300 because it will test the 1000 level and probably reach between there and 900. This is a question of time more than price. We are preparing the 2014 report now. Just as the Bible says – there is a time for everything.

15克拉絢麗橙鑽3550萬美元拍出 每克拉價格創紀錄

一枚重達14.82克拉的橙色鑽石日前在瑞士日內瓦以3550萬美元的高價拍出。











據外媒消息,一枚重達14.82克拉的橙色鑽石日前在瑞士日內瓦以3550萬美元(約合人民幣2.16億元)的高價拍出,這枚鑽石是拍賣史上個頭最大的橙色鑽石。
中新網報導,這枚梨形的橙色鑽石12日以3550萬美元的價格成交,平均每克拉價格為240萬美元(約合人民幣1463萬元)。佳士得拍賣行表示,這枚鑽石每克拉的價格創下了彩色鑽石拍賣史上的紀錄。
此外,國際知名拍賣公司蘇富比也將於當地時間13日在日內瓦拍賣重達59.6克拉的無瑕粉鑽「粉紅之星」。
據估計,「粉紅之星」的拍賣價格將超過6000萬美元(約合人民幣3.66億元)。

再膨脹仍不敵收縮

石林

歐洲央行突然減息0.25厘;美國10月份失業率輕微回升0.1個百分點,但非農業新職位的增幅卻遠高於市場估計。

上周這兩項消息先後令金市掀起大波瀾,金價從1326元(美元.下同)的周內高位,大幅回挫至三周來的偏低位1281元。收市報1288.5元,此為繼前周回跌後,再跌2%。 

銀市亦出現類似行情,銀價從22.06元回落至21.23元,周末收報21.51元,比前周再跌1.6%。

敝欄上期說,每當美國發表就業數據,都會引起金銀市勢一陣急劇波動,但此類波動最終還要服膺於大勢。很明顯,大勢實際仍傾向下滑。

許多人依然認為,上周五金市大跌,是市場預期美聯儲局或會提早減少買債規模之故。但類似理由則難以解釋,歐洲減息為何令金價率先從反彈高位回落。

姑勿論美聯儲是否真的會提早實行減少買債(Tapering),而事實上該局的資產負債表規模到上周又創出3.851萬億元新高,其中持有的國庫券價值亦創2.125萬億元新高。Tapering是人們說的,並非是聯儲局說的。

再膨脹力量被抵銷

眼前的事實是歐洲再度減息、美國則繼續進行QE,兩項均屬再膨脹政策,但金價竟然再往下跌,似乎有點解釋不通。應該想一想:為什麼歐美央行仍要施行再膨脹政策?

原因是兩地經濟都存在着收縮壓力,當局要採取再膨脹手段作抗衡,避免通脹或蕭條出現。

關鍵問題是,收縮及再膨脹兩者力量究竟哪一個更大呢?顯示出來的事實是,收縮力量仍較大。這表現於美國CPI按年上漲只有1.2%,歐羅區通脹率只有0.7%,為四年來最低。此更體現於全球商品價格在下滑,其中涵蓋22種原始商品表現的道瓊斯─瑞銀商品指數(Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index),已跌回到2010年4月以來的低水平。

為什麼再膨脹力仍不敵收縮壓力呢?這是敝欄最近連續探討的問題,貨幣流動性仍在惡化幾乎抵銷了央行再膨脹措施的效能,積累造成商品價格再度下滑、通脹不興。

弔詭的是,情況愈是這樣,央行就愈要繼續採取再膨脹政策,也愈敢於施行這類政策。因為這會引發起通脹的惡果未必出現,起碼目前未見出現。

整固形態面臨考驗

金市實際內情,不宜主觀簡單理解。上周四歐美交易時段,金價曾被推高到上文說的周內高位,突然沽盤湧現,大量平倉,市勢急速逆轉。此不可能是一般交易行為,應是有心和有力的人所為,他們預先知道一些訊息和擁有一定力量,且終於成功。但敝欄認為光憑有心和有力是改變不了市場方向的,最關鍵的是其行為必須符合大勢。

金市經兩周明顯下跌,技術走勢更形轉劣,期金市由原來的高位平倉狀態,變為在再跌的過程中成交量及未平倉大增,反映有頗多新沽盤入市。

美國和美債孳息率回升,為上述有心及有力人添加阻力。金市圖表自今年4月底至今,形成的跌後三角形整固形態正受嚴峻考驗,其支持線1269元水平若不支,進而前低點1250元失守,則意味着這個三角形是更長跌市的中途站而已。

短期而言,1296元已有回升阻力,而1306元至1311元地帶更具阻力。

銀市在4月底至今,則形成跌後上升楔形整固形態,目前亦受到考驗。該形態的下支持線現處於21元附近,關鍵支持水平為20.5元,此兩水平若失守,其意義與上文說的相同。

短期而言,21.7元已有阻力,而22元更具阻力。最近金銀市勢的演變,說明對問題作認真探討是有必要的。

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海外學者力推在華轉基因商用

海外學者力推在華轉基因商用

2013-11-09 01:14 中國經營報

  繼61位兩院院士上書後

力推轉基因商用49位海外生物學家再上書

  李艷潔

關於轉基因的戰爭尚無停止的跡象。在“挺轉”和“反轉”背後,一個不可忽視的現像是,轉基因大豆、菜籽油、玉米大量進口,孟山都、杜邦、拜耳等企業在我國發展種子業務的同時,與國內的科研院所合作開展轉基因育種研究。無論是支持還是反對轉基因主糧商業化的專家共同擔憂的一點是我國的種子產業安全和糧食安全。

在“擔憂種子產業安全和糧食安全”的名義下,華中農業大學生命科學技術學院院長、中國科學院院士、植物遺傳和分子生物學家張啟發稱,今年7月份,49位海外生物醫藥學者與國內61位兩院院士幾乎同時上書給習近平主席和李克強總理,呼籲推動轉基因商業化,稱“再延誤就是誤國”。而同樣支持開展轉基因科學研究但反對盲目快速商業化的中國農科院研究員佟屏亞則認為,這種做法“試圖再次影響政府決策的走向”,懷疑其背後的功利目的。

  再次上書

張啟發稱不方便透露61位院士和49位海外學者的名字,但告訴《中國經營報》記者,這些參與的學者大多為從事生物科學研究的人員。張啟發表示,這是他參與的第二次“上書”,上一次還是2004年,當時張啟發和他的團隊正在申請研發的轉基因水稻安全證書。

而這一次上書的“背景”頗為複雜。 2009年,農業部向張啟發和他的團隊批准了兩張轉基因水稻安全證書。這兩張證書將在2014年8月17日到期。 “2009年5月,在11年的爭取之後,我們研究的兩種轉基因水稻,華恢1號與Bt汕優63取得了國家頒發的安全證書,當時我比較樂觀,現在4年過去了,這兩張證書也將在明年失效,但轉基因水稻商業化不是更近,而是更遙遠了。”張啟發對過期後是否繼續申請並不樂觀。

另一方面,張啟發以及其他華中農業大學的轉基因育種專家表示,2008年立項的轉基因重大科技專項“最近幾年經費支持變相減少。”張啟發認為,轉基因重大科技專項的目的就是推動轉基因產業化,“我現在說不出具體經費減少的比例,但是有些項目因為各種原因擱置了,上面來檢查的時候發現我們原來承諾的兌現不了,就卡錢。”

一直支持推廣轉基因的中國農科院研究員、曾任農業轉基因生物安全委員會委員的黃大昉和中國農業大學食品科學與營養工程學院院長羅雲波表示他們不清楚最近幾年轉基因科研經費是否有減少跡象,





但“如果多年的科研沒有什麼產業應用,掌管項目經費的部門必然也不會願意再花大錢來支持。”

中國農科院研究員佟屏亞認為,這些“上書”行為“試圖影響政策走向”。最近兩年,支持推動轉基因產業化的科研人員,包括張啟發、黃大昉在內,多次指責農業部“不作為”。

如果要進行商業化推廣,那麼獲得批准安全證書後,還應有種子審定環節、最後才是商業化種植的許可。 “我們獲得安全證書的第二天就​​問農業部後續的程序要怎麼走,他們當時和我們說會會同其他部門拿出一個審定辦法和程序,但是到現在為止都沒有一個說法。”張啟發表示。

  外國資本“潛伏”

儘管國內的轉基因商業化尚未推行,但中國已經批准了轉基因大豆、油菜、玉米等作為加工原料來進口,並且進口量年年攀升。

與此同時,外國種子企業在中國拓展種子市場的同時,也和中國的科研院所、企業開展了轉基因育種研究。

新聞報導顯示,早在2008年,中國農科院就與拜耳作物科學公司簽署了科技合作諒解備忘錄,加強在作物育種、生物安全等領域的合作。 2010年,拜耳作物科學公司與中國農科院油料所簽訂了開髮油菜新品種的協議,雙方將採用分子育種技術或基因工程技術,利用與油含量和菌核病抗性相關的基因,來更好地保護油菜作物,進一步提高油菜作物的含油量。

孟山都從2002年至2012年,對北大-耶魯植物分子遺傳學和農業生物技術聯合中心提供了大約175萬美元的資助,該中心於2001年在北京大學成立,主要研究方向包括對模式植物的基礎和應用研究,並將研究成果應用於作物改良。孟山都推出了“孟山都獎學金計劃”和“孟山都人才交流計劃”等項目,並為中心承辦的相關科研會議和技術研討會提供支持。

農科院的新聞報導顯示,農科院先後與杜邦、拜耳、孟山都簽署了各種形式的農業合作備忘錄,並且開展了合作研究。不僅僅是中國農科院,根據佟屏亞的統計,2009年,孟山都、先鋒、先正達、拜耳等在中國密集開展水稻研究合作,分別與華中農業大學、湖南大學、國家雜交水稻工程中心、安徽省農科院水稻所、中國水稻研究所達成合作協議。

跨國公司還爭相在中國建設研發基地。 2008年10月,先正達公司在北京建立生物技術研發中心,成為首家外資農業生物技術研究機構。 2012年10月,先正達公司與湖北省農業科學院聯合組建先正達天然產物創新中心,在武漢成立光谷生物城高農生物園揭牌。先正達在中國設立了五家獨資企業、一家合資企業、一家合作企業和數家辦事處,主要從事蔬菜種子和大田種子業務,投資累計超過3億美元。 2009年,孟山都公司成立北京生物技術研究有限公司。

在佟屏亞看來,跨國公司設立的獎學金成為他們培養和搶奪人才的一個辦法。據他統計,杜邦公司在國內重點大學設立“杜邦獎學金”,覆蓋全國的十多所大學,包括清華大學、北京大學、中國農業大學等,每年投入10萬美元,累計受資助大學生已達2 000多名。孟山都公司斥資1 000萬美元在全球21個國家設置“孟山都獎學金項目”。 2010年10月,通過中國農業部在中國農業科學院、中國農業大學、山東農業大學等啟動“孟山都獎學金項目”,包括孟山都獎學金、孟山都助學金和孟山都最佳論文獎三大獎項,年度獎勵金額人民幣30 000元,優先資助生命科學、環境科學與工程學院的大學生和研究生,特別強調學生立志從事農業生命科學與相關技術領域的研發或實業。

不過,在華中農業大學另一位轉基因專家林擁軍看來,科研“不應該太狹隘。如果我的學生能在這些大型企業找到一份好工業,也是很好的出路。”
而關於孟山都、拜耳、杜邦等企業頻頻拜訪中國農業部、商務部官員的報導,也屢屢見諸於媒體,比如,2009年10月,孟山都副總裁伯格曼拜訪中國農業部,與農業部牛盾副部長會談;2011年9月20日,中國農業科學院翟虎渠院長與孟山都公司董事長、總裁兼首席執行官休-格蘭特一行會見。而現任的中國農業部副部長、中國農科院院長李家洋曾為杜邦公司的顧問。

也許是在這種“外來危機”下,國內的轉基因生物技術專家多次表示擔憂我國的轉基因技術如果遲遲不能商業化,中國的市場恐怕要被跨國企業佔領。而種業專家也多次表示了中國種業發展的擔憂。

多位轉基因技術專家表示,1997年中國棉花蟲害肆虐,當時跨國企業的抗蟲棉花種子在中國市場賣得好, 我國及時批准了自己研發的轉基因棉花的商業種植,從而把握住了國內的棉花種子市場。