2011年9月17日星期六

Austria restricts gold purchase by individuals


 http://www.commodityonline.com
實金實銀有得買就好買啦.....澳地利新政策,規定個人買金限額......
 同時有見議在當地現金消費不得多過300EU....超過就用電子貨幣
 相信風暴已經....

VIENNA (Commodity Online): A newly enacted Gold policy in Austria that restricts the free purchase of gold by individuals may just be the start of a European policy shift that might border on infringing an individual’s financial freedom.

-As per the new Austrian policies, individuals who wish to purchase gold will be restricted to purchase only 15000 Euros worth of gold at a time making gold an officially “restricted” commodity.

Earlier, one had to just call the local Austrian bank about 2-4 days in advance and state the amount of Gold one wishes to purchase. But that has now been scrapped.

Although, the officials quote money laundering as the reason for the new polices, one but wonders if there isn’t more to it.

-Meanwhile, in Italy, top industrials and professionals have sent a letter to the government and parliament to ban all cash transactions above 300 Euros, and only permit electronic transfers!

金價過山車行情未結束

黃金市場未來數周將面臨更多劇烈波動,因好淡雙方圍繞金價走向僵持不下,投資者在每盎斯1800美元上方對黃金的信心開始動搖,決策者也在採取孤注一擲的措施來穩定經濟。

自瑞士央行上周意外決定把瑞郎與歐羅滙率掛鈎,黃金投資者經歷了一波大起大落的過山車式行情;過去數周,金價在數分鐘內急速漲跌50美元的走勢並不鮮見。 

或先調整逾百美元

「我認為,金價將走高,但不排除向下修正逾100美元的可能,尤其是在美元進一步走強的情況下。」丹麥Saxo Bank高級經理Ole Hansen說。

全球各地的金融市場都經歷着極端的價格波動,因投資者對歐羅區領導人解決區內債務危機的能力失去信心,而美國經濟指標則表明增長正陷於停頓,聯邦儲備局可用的政策工具不斷減少。這些問題已是老生常談,目前為止一直有利於黃金,推動金價在本月稍早觸及每盎斯1920美元上方的紀錄高位,但鑑於金價處在前所未見的高位,如此極端的不確定性正令投資者焦慮不安。

「如果你同意泡沫正在形成,那麼,你預計將看到金價的波動性還會大幅上升,並推動價格到達頂峰。」Natixis分析師Nic Brown說:「金融市場的運行就是這樣,它們在最終達到不可持續的高位前,走勢難免會變得愈發震盪。」

今年黃金的高低點價位相差逾600美元,從絕對差值來看,至少是1960年代以來最大,不過,金價32%的波動幅度仍低於1980年的42%,當時金價也曾突破紀錄。

黃金與股市的走勢已變得更趨正相關,意味着金價比以往更傾向於隨股市而動。更讓投資者擔心的是,黃金打破了與美元等資產的傳統關聯,這導致其下一步走勢更難預測,也正將黃金進一步推向目前很多人所說的泡沫區域。

任何市場上演急漲急跌行情,都會讓短線交易商感到激動,但多數投資者往往會焦慮不安,不敢大舉押注是漲還是跌,這樣就強化了成交淡靜與價格震盪加劇的惡性循環。

儘管這樣,再加上數輪獲利回吐,金價還是沒有崩盤,雖然波幅上升,但目前黃金沽盤規模甚至遠遠比不上第三季初的買盤。黃金持有成本增加,以及高波動率帶來更大風險,並沒嚇退買家,尤其是瑞士央行干預以後,瑞郎實際上已經從避險資產名單中剔除。

不論如何,在如今貨幣、商品和股市通通走勢反覆、難以尋獲明確方向的大環境下,黃金仍被視作投資佳選。但這並不是說,金價就不會出現驚心動魄的調整。

王sir教路

王SIR 2011研討會...會上提及來年要留意的版塊

Silver Beginning a Run-Up




文章中提及小弟經常思考的問題,就是80年代.銀價是受到享利兄弟,人為因素,而導致銀價上升到$50美元,如當時沒有人為因素,當時銀價會是多少? 


作者亦提到金銀比以1:25.........小弟覺得這比例比較理性和合理

Silver prices are once again enjoying a run-up as they did from January through April. During that period they doubled and briefly touched $50 an ounce before settling back down to the low $30s.


As I write, silver prices are back above $40 an ounce and that may be giving you the urge to sell. I would advise that you don’t. This recovery is for real, and it has much further to go.


While I have a price target of $50.00 by years end, I anticipate silver prices will peak at $150 an ounce in 18 months.


Central banks around the world are pushing lax monetary policies and this leads me to conclude that prices for all commodities (gold and silver in particular) will rise.


We've already seen this happen with gold hitting a record high $1,923.70 an ounce on Sept. 7 and when gold goes higher; its baby brother silver quickly follows.


That's reflected in something called the gold to silver ratio, which shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. Traditionally, this ratio acts as a price barometer for the two precious metals. And if you look at it right now, it's easy to see that $150 silver isn't far off. Gold and silver prices traditionally move together because both are considered stores of value in inflationary times and while the world considers gold as the premier store of value, other societies, most notably the Spanish empire in the Americas, Imperial China and Mogul India, used the silver standard and are therefore more focused on silver when inflation threatens.


In the 19th century silver and gold prices maintained a fairly steady relationship to each other in a ratio of 16 to 1. This was due to the fact that both gold and silver were viewed as currency. However, in the 20th century silver depreciated against gold. This was due to the fact that silver began to be seen as a commodity that was mainly used in industrial applications. While the two metals are chemically very similar, but silver is much cheaper and therefore is more suitable for industrial uses.




By 2010, gold traded well above $1,000 an ounce while silver traded at $12-$14 an ounce or a ratio of close to 80 to 1. This was unsustainable, and it resulted in the price of silver rising in 2010-11. At its peak, silver was trading for $50 an ounce and about a 30 to 1 ratio to the price of gold.


Going forward, we cannot expect the gold/silver price ratio to reach 16 to 1, as it almost did in 1980.


I believe the reason for this is the use of silver as an industrial metal has fallen off sharply when the price spiked. That freed up silver supplies while investment demand for gold soared.


The second reason is that the 1980 silver price spike was caused by the Hunt Brothers' attempt to corner the silver market. No such attempt is visible today.


So, I believe the peak ratio of silver to gold is much more likely to reach something closer to 25 to 1.


The peak in gold is yet unknown, but for supply/demand reasons it seems likely to be above $2,500 an ounce - today's equivalent of the 1980 peak, adjusted for inflation - but less than $5,000 an ounce - the 1980 peak adjusted for growth in world gross domestic product (GDP) or money supply.


That would suggest a silver price peak between $100 and $200 per ounce, with $150 an ounce the most likely outcome.


In conclusion, the market will not ultimately turn bearish until global monetary policy tightens. With the November 2012 U.S. Presidential election looming large on the horizon, we probably have at least another year of rising prices. However, we may not have two years to wait for politicians decide to get our fiscal house in order.


My recommendation would be to any silver holdings at least until prices reached $150 an ounce.

Original Source