Jim Rickards - Currency Wars Simulation

港元、日元、聯繫匯率制度及其他...

中國2012年10月22日 13:06　　　文 / xiaopi日元與安全港上週日元表現的不像是一個安全港貨幣。通常情況下，當市場風險偏好降低時（Risk Off),投資者會將資金移出風險資產，日元會上升。但近期走勢並非如此：

 投資者近期對日本的情況更加憂慮。中日沖突持續且日本經濟數據非常疲軟，工業產出和產能利用率下滑，而日本可能面臨新一輪GDP負增長，這在近年來已經變的越來越常見。
 

但投資者更擔心的是日本央行價碼量化寬鬆措施。還有傳言日本或直接干預市場以應對美聯儲的QE3.

 既然日元可能讓投資者不太滿意，那麼這些資金近日里都流往哪裡了呢？答案看起來是香港。
 港幣與干預
 為避免美元兌港幣跌落7.75大關，香港金融管理局（HKMA，以下簡稱“金管局”）自2009年12月以來首次干預市場。


    金管局20日的郵件聲明稱，金管局在10月19日紐約交易時段內以美元兌港幣7.75：1的匯價拋售港幣購入美元，干預規模約6.03億美元。
   
    金管局稱近來歐洲市場緊張形勢減緩、美元疲弱以及美國利率下降都促使資本流入本地貨幣市場與股市，相關的本幣需求增加。已發現與其他亞洲貨幣類似的上行壓力。

 港元與美元的聯繫匯率制度的浮動區間為一美元兌7.75港幣至7.85港幣。香港官員多次重申不會調整聯繫匯率制度，啊金管局副總裁阮國恆(Arthur Yuen)19日告訴記者政府認為沒有必要變動這一安排。
 聯繫匯率制度與對沖基金
 港幣對美元的2年期遠期合約19日收於7.7486，低於過去三年的平均價格。彭博調查的2013年底港幣對美元匯率的預測中值為7.76。看起來遠期交易員們對香港維護聯繫匯率的決心還是頗為認可，但有一個人除外，那就是著名對沖基金經理Bill Ackman。

 Ackman在2011年9月在一場會議上發表演講表示看漲港元，並透露旗下著名的Pershing Square Capital 已購入港元及港元看漲期權。
 Ackman認為，在聯繫匯率制度下，受美國貨幣政策影響，香港的利率非常低，這將導致香港的房地產泡沫和通脹。他相信香港將在2015年終結其聯繫匯率制度，港幣將升至30%，並在未來3-6年裡與人民幣掛鉤。
 
 Ackman10月20日在答复彭博的郵件詢問中寫道：“是的，我們一直持有這一頭寸。”他拒絕透露是否會調整倉位。

 Ackman在去年說這筆投資在其投資組合中佔比較小，但卻可能成為最賺錢的一個。

 但有趣的是，Ackman過去一直以其在股票和地產投資聞名，此次涉足宏觀市場，其勝算幾何呢？

 聯繫匯率制度與人民幣

 香港金管局前總裁任志剛6月份表示香港應該重新審視聯繫匯率制度，而正是任本人幫助引入了這一制度且在東南亞金融未擊中擊退了投資者的攻擊。

 任是迄今為止談論改變聯繫匯率制度的最高級別的香港官員。香港前特首曾蔭權在去年11月的採訪中表示港元的聯繫匯率制度至少要維持到人民幣自由流通。而中國央行上個月表示人民幣將“穩步有次序的走向”全面可兌換。人民銀行顧問陳雨露9月份表示這一目標可能在2020年達到。

 “考慮到歐美的情況，資金將持續流入香港，”東亞銀行外匯分析師賴春梅（Kenix Lai）說道：“股市和房價的上漲都可以明顯看出來。我預計金管局將不得不在短期內再度干預。 ”

金價上週五創3個月來最大跌幅

Timon

黃金評論

市場：上週五金價在倫敦開市後，由於市場對西班牙將獲得援助的預期落空，歐元兌美元走弱，金價承壓。美國開市後，GE公佈的季報低於預期，加上前一日Google公佈的季布也較為負面，帶動美股開盤後一路走低。風險資產走低也打壓黃金市場，帶動拋盤出現。週五晚間11時美國Comex黃金期貨出現大量拋單，帶動金價一度跌至日間低點$1716，隨後止跌回升，在50日均線$1720處獲得支撐。上週五金價收盤在$1720附近，跌幅逾1%，創3個月來的最大單日跌幅。
分析：上週五金價又重新回到了QE3宣布前的價位。從基本面和技術面上，未來一段時間黃金價格仍將承壓。基本面上，美國公司近期公佈的季報結果差強人意、美國大選、歐洲危機尚未解決都導致風險資產走弱，而短期內歐美不會有更大規模的寬鬆政策出台；技術面上，金價形成了” lower low and lower high”的看空走勢，下一目標價位將是$1700整數關口。

中國1-8月經香港進口黃金超歐洲央行持金量由澳大利亞進口黃金額增長900%

10月11日香港統計處數據顯示，中國8月經由香港地區進口黃金29.3公噸，環比減少約29%。但今年截至8月中國經香港進口黃金量已達到512公噸，超過了歐洲央行官方持有的黃金總量502.1公噸。下面我們來簡單回顧中國由香港進口黃金量追趕西方的腳步。
 先是今年前5個月以315公噸的由港進口黃金總量超過了英國官方持有量——310.3公噸。下圖來自世界黃金協會（WGC）7月公佈的官方持有黃金數據。

6月數據公佈後，中國半年內由港進口黃金總量383公噸，超過了葡萄牙的382.5公噸。

到了7月，中國前7個月由港進口黃金總量485.6公噸，已經出現超越歐洲央行的勢頭。

  
然後我們來看8月數據公佈後的總體進口增長走勢.>

按照這樣的發展趨勢，中國今年的進口黃金量將超過全球第11大官方黃金持有國印度，印度的公佈持有量為558公噸。
 不過，在8月數據公佈後，匯豐銀行分析師預計，中國近期對黃金的購買欲看來會減弱，因為由香港進口金條增速放緩。
 一家香港金條經銷商Scotia Mocatta也提供了一個黃金熱冷卻的跡象，稱大陸的客戶透露，黃金庫存已經飽和。

我們從過去幾年迅速購買黃金的客戶​​處得知，他們現在補倉以前,先看到部分存貨售完。

 Maketwatch的報導指出，中國的貨幣供應增長放緩是另一個影響金條投資需求增加的理由，8月數據暗示著中國黃金市場的牛市將要結束。
 但南華早報10月11日的報導提到，有業內人士預計中國的黃金熱還會持續。


    香港金銀業貿易場（CGSE）永遠名譽會長馮志堅（Fung Chi-kin）預計，中國大陸黃金進口增長本月仍將疲弱，因為價格繼續處於高位。

    他還說，但黃金消費可能第四季度再次攀升，這是傳統的高峰季。這時中國人會為婚慶和送禮購買金飾。

 此外，中國黃金的進口來源澳大利亞還傳來了驚人消息，澳大利亞向中國出口黃金量超過了煤炭出口量，成為價值第二高的對華出口商品。
 據Bullionstreet10月18日報導


    今年前8個月，澳大利亞對華出售黃金41億美元，增長900%。

    澳大利亞統計局稱，黃金成為對華出口的第二大最有價值物資，超過了煤炭，僅次於鐵礦石。

    黃金銷售額史無前例地增長80%至40億美元，以煤炭為首的其他商品也繼續推動出口收入加速增加，使8月對華出口貿易總額增長10.7%。

    分析師稱，在本國經濟放緩、購房受限、央行增持黃金導致金融市場形勢不明的環境下，中國的買家在囤積貴金屬。

    中國的黃金外儲還低，今後將增加儲量，這會給黃金的提供重要的基礎需求。

 而且我們要看到，上述圖表展示的只是中國由香港進口的黃金量，並未包括由澳大利亞這類並未完全報告的出口渠道進口黃金量。
 至少有一點可以確定，中國不再對增持美國國債有任何興趣。
 下圖可見去年1月-今年8月中國（紅色）與日本（藍色）的美國國債持倉  

 

金市持續大型整固

石林...

秋高氣爽重陽至，而公曆2012年則踏入倒數階段了，在此時候對年內金市作一個簡單的檢討，應有啟示作用。

今 年2月、9月和10月，金價曾分別三度升至近1800元（美元．下同）關，但均無功而折返。相反在5月、6月和7月，則分別三度跌到1520元至1550 元地帶，但受到支持而回升。換言之，今年至今金價是在一個長方形內上落行走，而這其實是去年9月金價從歷史高價1920元下跌後的大型整固的持續，且看來 此舉還要維持一段時間。 

年內至今，金價最高曾見1795.8元，最低則曾見1526.8元，截至上周末收市報1720.5元，比去年底的收市價上升10.1％，遜於同期恒生指數16.9％的升幅。

處於長方形內上落

敝欄在年初曾介紹LBMA舉辦的年度金價預測，其中兩位最為看淡者是估計今年最高價為1800元。截至目前為止，在高位預測的一項，該兩位成績暫時是最好的。

此外，年內至今倫敦金下午定盤的平均價是1659.92元，距上述活動全部參加者的預測全年總平均數1766元尚有一大段距離，且看來到年底市勢亦無從追上此數。

回到討論近周的金市行情。上周金價曾在敝欄指的1736元關鍵位上下激烈爭持，但最終受制於前周收市水平，進一步滑落至1716.0元的五周來低位，全周收市跌1.92％。美元跌後呈回穩，而中國及印度黃金需求放緩等因素，令金市的平倉潮繼續。

截至上周四，期金市的未平倉合約量降至46.7萬張水平，比本月初的49.2萬張明顯減少。而截至上周二，大投機者的淨好倉合約量亦較前一周大幅減縮1.79萬張。金礦商對沖的沽倉對好倉的比率則由前周3.02比1的高水平，降至2.91比1的較低水平，平倉活動在深化。

較 早前不少外國分析者估計，金價若能維持在1775元或1750元水平之上，圖表將營造一個「杯與手柄」（Cup & Handle）形態中的「手柄」，金市將會在不太長的時間內累積新力量衝越1800元的大阻力，而指向1900元高位。上周市勢的發展給我們的啟示卻是， 這個假設暫時不存在了，金市短期的更大可能是繼續作調整，向前文說的大型長方形的中部地帶找尋更大的支持。

支 持這一估計的理據還有，美國貨幣基礎到本月17日，雖從兩周前的2.589萬億元的今年谷底，回增至2.651萬億元，但仍低於正式宣布推出QE3時的 2.655萬億元水平。此外，10年期債息對2年期債息的比率，到上周進一步降至5.97，不但明顯低於9月底時的7.17，且回復到8月中的較低水平。 從以上兩點資料，我們可以推估美國聯儲局至今尚未大力進行QE操作，而OT操作卻仍在繼續。

因此，估計短期金市已在1754元出現回升阻力，此阻力目前且下移至1742元及1736元水平。當下金價已跌抵敝欄上期所說的目標，但稍後若連1714元也不支的話，則有進一步滑落至1695元的可能，但估計暫不至低於1677元。

銀市好淡雙方爭持

上 周銀價曾挫至31.94元，為上月上旬以來的低位，收市報32.07元，較前周跌4.21％。有趣的是銀市走勢幾乎全照教科書說的進行，上周反彈就在 33.3元水平，其後掉頭回跌。有趣的還有，期銀市的未平倉合約量並未明顯減縮，上周四仍為14萬張水平；而截至上周二銀礦商對沖的淡倉對好倉的比率竟維 持在與前周同一的2.57比1水平。可見銀價雖在跌，但好淡雙方仍在僵持，無人肯認輸，故買賣要小心風險。

但無論如何，銀市短期走勢比金市更弱，33.3元已成為其回升阻力，目前且下移至32.6元水平。稍後若連31.9元也不支，則有可能進一步滑落至31.3元，但估計暫不至低於30.2元。

Jim Sinclair: Cartel Shorts Are a Managed Spread Position, Banks Flipping to Naked Long Will Propel Gold to $12,400!

The legendary Jim Sinclair has sent an email alert to subscribers in response to a reader inquiring why the bullion banks are short gold and silver.

Sinclair responded with his most in-depth explanation to date stating that the majority of what appears to be short positions is in fact a massive hedge spread which has been systematically used to manage the ascent of gold up from $250 and the USDX down from 1.25 over the past 10 years.
 
Sinclair states that when the bullion banks sense that gold is ready to explode upwards in price in the final bull move of this bull run, they will flip their spread hedge naked long, reaping the largest gains of anyone in the precious metals sector, and propelling gold to $12,400.

MUST READ!!!

From Jim Sinclair:

What is the “Strong Dollar Policy” of the US Treasury? The answer is it is a policy of support of the dollar at key technical points so that the dollar will decline in an orderly fashion. This has been in place since the dollar was trading in the mid one hundred and twenty-five area on the USDX. In comparison the “Weak Gold Policy” has been in place since $248 which means gold’s appreciation will not be an insult to the dollar by spiking to $3500 and beyond, but rather rise in an orderly fashion. How could you not have noticed this in both the dollar and gold? This opens the bonanza to the metals dealer to run what looks like a huge short but rather to operate their business where I was pleased to make one half a dollar unwinding the spread (a long position versus a short position offsetting between my buying product from the producer versus Comex short).

Today the metals dealer want to make fifty dollars, not 50 cents on that spread.

I owned a metals dealer here and in London. I made a cash market for gold. I know about what I speak. There might be outside of the gold banks less than five people who understand the big short that is always being screamed about by the so called gold experts, and COT is a crock. You are looking at least seventy-five percent at a managed spread position. What happened at $1800 then at $1775 and again at $1750 was the long side of the spread was dropped, leaving the short side exploded and the gold banks pounding the market to make a 50% profit by putting back on the long side of the spreads, locking the huge physical long versus the Comex short into a no risk position that reads on COT like the greatest short in human history. The same is true of silver. In this financially debased world, with the rules of a metal dealer’s company and a little help for standard financial fraud and you will never find this in the COT numbers.

I am telling you the truth. I am telling you how a metals dealer works. I know because I was successful in the entire 1970s gold bull market play against this game.

Here comes the “Golden Truth.” When the gold banks perceive that the gold market is about to go ballistic, just like any bull market does, they need only reverse the strategy in place from $248 called “The Weak Gold Policy” in how they handle the 75% risk-less spread. Now when gold falls you takes off the short aside of the spread with gusto and let the long run. The biggest money I ever made was when my very interesting partner and I went into the Sinclair Global Arbitrage Company and asked them how many ounces of gold and silver they had in a spread position. When they told us the huge number over 15,000 contracts spread we told them follow our instruction. Take every short off the spread making us naked long. This was when the gold price broke $400 the second time over, running like a bunny to $887.75.

You must note how central banks are either buying or protecting their gold reserve positions now. This is total about face two years ago. There is another change coming which is a replacement monetary system and the need for some asset on central bank’s balance sheets to have positive value, especially in the USA. Soon all that is required is a change in spread management by the gold banks and you will have whatever price the gold banks want from $3,500 to $12,400.

All the COT numbers are nonsense and a means of operating the markets. COT experts give buy and sell signals which help the physical metals dealers profit on their spread trading. The COT experts help this spread trading looking for immense profit to profit immensely. Nonsense makes markets so the COT analyst looks like a genius while really interpreting nonsense when he/she is being duped into a tool to help the metals dealers spread position profit.

I have told you 1000 times that the greatest profit over the shortest period of time will be made by the gold bank physical dealers.

Because I know.
Because it requires only a shift in spread trading tactic handling of the spreads. 
Because it is simple.
Because in truth the gold banks are simple.
Because I did not get named “Mr. Gold” in the seventies because I wrote on gold.
Because in the 70s I ran the gold market and the gold price by attacking the dealer’s spread position which no one has done so far in this market.
Because attacking a spread position is simple. You simple run the opposite spread tactics with major balls and major PR.
Because I like keeping it simple.
Because the proof on this is that the gold banks got pissed. Both I and my partner were brought before the board of directors of the exchange under the accusation that we two running huge spreads between us, thereby manipulating the world’s gold markets.

Wake up experts, you have been had and your comments to the community are helping make sure they are had. You are tools of the gold banks and do not even know it. Your sage comments when I hear them from readers makes me sick because it is ignorant of the business.

Now I know this is going to cost me big, but you must understand what I am teaching you above. If you do not understand ask me the questions but no tomes please, all in at least 24 font, no other “expert” articles please. Just write me on what you are stuck on and I will try to clear your understanding of what you own or trade.

Please do not argue with me because you will only be demonstrating your ignorance, not your knowledge.

If you are convinced the decorated professor is a turkey, guess who really is the turkey.

Respectfully,
Jim