黃金近來重挫 周五已跌破生產成本

黃金周五下跌至2010年以來低點，跌破每盎司1200美元關卡，即許多礦場生產每盎司黃金的成本。分析師說，如果黃金價格守於目前水準，礦場將受到嚴重衝擊。

Compass全球市場公司執行長Andrew Su說，在澳洲--幾家全球最大金礦所在國家，黃金每盎司平均生產成本，已由2007年的500美元，上升到了今年的逾1000美元。

「我相信，黃金的實際成本，已大幅高於1000美元。所以，在澳洲，已有多家黃金礦場關閉，」Andrew Su周五說。

Andrew Su並指出，員工的固定成本已大幅上升，而黃金價格卻下跌，讓礦場作業更增添了壓力。

業界專家說，黃金每盎司生產總成本介於1000至1200美元，視礦場作業規模而定。

自4月以來的黃金跌勢本周更見擴大，可能創下自至少1968年以來最大單季跌幅，擔憂美國聯準會(Fed)縮減購債，為利空。
周五亞洲盤早場，黃金下跌至1180.48美元，創三年低點。自上周初水平大跌了近14%，或約200美元。

CMC公司分析師史普諾(Ric Spooner)說，黃金跌破每盎司1200美元，礦場，尤其小型礦場，將面臨獲利能力問題。

Andrew Su說， 黃金跌破每盎司1000美元的預測，不太可能成真。因為這意味澳洲大多礦場均變得沒有獲利能力。因已有礦場減產，一旦供給大減，黃金價格就當開始回穩。

印度黄金股本周暴跌 最多跌48%

全球金價創三年新低，印度政府全力收緊黃金進口，在雙重力量打壓下，本週印度黃金公司股價暴跌。

由於海外資金大量拋售，珠寶商Tribhovandas Bhimji Zaveri、PC Jeweller、 Gitanjali Gems的股票暴跌了近40%。

貸款公司Muthoot Finance和Manappuram Finance的股票也下跌10%-18%。主要是因為市場擔心金價下跌將導致黃金抵押貸款的利潤下跌，還擔心實物黃金的拍賣可能減少公司營收。

據華爾街日報，孟買brokerage Inventure Growth & Securities公司的分析師Mitesh Shah表示：“我不看好黃金零售商，政府的改革使這些公司的商業模式充滿了風險。”

週四，黃金價格跌至1223.80美元/盎司。近年來，國際金價已經下跌25%，由於印度盧比對美元下滑至歷史低點，印度國內金價也下跌了15%。自五月以來，盧比對美元已經貶值11%。

最近幾週，隨著美聯儲暗示可能回撤QE​​，金價開始加速下跌。金融海嘯以來，美聯儲連續不斷的寬鬆政策曾將黃金推至1900美元的高位，投資者紛紛將黃金作為通脹的對沖手段。

為了避免經常性賬戶赤字的惡化，印度央行已經採取多重措施限制黃金進口。目前印度是全球最大的黃金消費國。

五月以來，印度央行限制銀行和交易機構採用延期付款的手段進口黃金，有效推動了交易商在進口前支付現金。

Shah稱，如今零售商們不得不籌集大量的現金來購買黃金，這增加了他們的成本。

諸如Tribhovandas Bhimji Zaveri和PC Jeweller等零售商主要通過將黃金加工稱首飾來盈利。大型零售商通常還保有大量的黃金庫存，從金價上漲中大獲其利。但最近的金價下跌使得這些庫存黃金不斷貶值。這對黃金零售商是雙重打擊。

本週損失最為慘重的是孟買的珠寶零售商Gitanjali，其股價跌幅高達48%。

印度加入貨幣戰爭？

Soberlook：

去年的時候，印度盧比就已經貶值到歷史低位，當時美元/盧比一度達到57附近，現在另一輪的盧比貶值開始了。過去幾天，美元/印度盧比的匯率大漲，首次突破60大關（見下圖）。外國投資者人心惶惶，資本紛紛離開新興市場。




印度央行為什麼不干預？一個可能的原因是，印度的經常賬戶在過去幾年裡壓力很大。出口並沒能趕上國內需求增長，勞動力成本上升削弱了印度的全球市場競爭力。




遏制經常賬戶下降趨勢的一個辦法是讓盧比貶值。印度肯定有足夠的外匯儲備來抑制盧比貶值，但到目前為止一直採取放任的態度。


    據彭博社消息：據兩位知情的匿名交易員表示，印度央行的確拋售了美元，但拋售規模很小，更像是用來緩和波動而不是穩定匯率。官方數據顯示，印度外匯儲備在6月14日時為2907億美元，而2011年時3210億美元的為外匯儲備的最高記錄。

看起来印度已经决定用贬值来对抗资本流出，以“改善”其竞争力。通胀已经不是个主要的问题，所以为何不加入货币战争？

金銀大跌..Comex 期貨持續流出

朱冠華

昨天Comex的黃金流失了一噸，白銀流失了14.5噸，並沒有因為金銀價格暴跌而停止，也沒有什麼新的金銀入Comex的庫。

如果這局勢仍不改變，以現在的流失率計算，一年內，Comex的黃金會完全被提取一空，最多不超過二年。

所以，千萬不要買任何紙黃金，如黃金白銀存摺，ETF和金銀礦股票。要買就要買實物。

因為現實中，金銀實物供應是緊缺的，過剩的只是紙金銀。

這種情況下，Comex恐怕很難獲得新的金銀來補充庫存，可金銀期貨卻是實物一年生產的１００倍。

在實物庫存無法補充下，爆發Comex違約，交不出金銀，根本就是時間問題。

當初，就是JP Morgan無法交割白銀，才將銀價從49美元的價格打下來，嚇走多頭，才能補充庫存。

現在華爾街也是用這一招。六月份, JP MORGAN 要交割的黄金比平时多九倍, 且规模超出它的库存, 所以金银价格暴跌, 毫不奇怪, 这招在2011年已用来对付白银了。不過卻沒有發生金銀回流現象, 这对美元和华尔街是大灾难。

只要這情況持續下去一年，Comex的金銀期貨就無法交割實物，那麼，金銀期貨從此再也威脅不到黃金白銀的價格了！

Moscow exchange launches precious metals trading

繼星架坡最近成立的黃金倉庫後,

莫斯科又有貴金屬市場成立

未來貴金屬市場風起雲湧

Jim Sinclair

Russia takes the lead in anti manipulative gold actions. Russia also marks its gold inventory toy market price. They have to be very unhappy with the gold banks and the US Fed.

War takes many forms and gold is outright war.
China will follow with a physical bullion exchange. This is dynamite for the real discovery of the price of gold and silver free from no-gold, no-silver fraudulent paper exchanges.

The Russians are going to launch a cash bullion market. Maybe they know what the Fed has done to one of their major's assets and now intend to bust the manipulative paper game.
This mechanism will go a long way towards the emancipation of gold from paper.

Safety is in the Brics or quasi Brics for the next 3 years or more.

Moscow exchange launches precious metals trading  Published time: June 27, 2013 12:49
 

The stock exchange is going to start trading gold and silver by the end of this year, and platinum and palladium in 2014. Trading physical metals is expected to boost liquidity in the market and attract more participants.
Russia has so far only been trading futures on gold and silver, not dealing with real metals.

Gold has been occasionally sold on the over-the-counter market and the only benchmark for price was the Central bank’s quotations, Gazeta.ru reports.  Now gold will get the market price in rubles.

“We are a gold-exporting country. We produce a large number of precious metals. However, the trade volume is still significantly lagging behind our peers. Our commodity market is not transparent," Gazeta.ru quotes the director of the commodity market of the Moscow exchange, Mikhail Orlenko.

Spot metal trading will be based on the platform of the existing foreign exchange market. Credit institutions licensed to conduct operations with precious metals and non-banking professional brokers will be the main players on the market, Gazeta,ru quotes the presentation by the bourse.

The Moscow stock exchange plans to transport precious metals from production companies, keep them in its own stores and deliver to the buyer the next day.

The launch of trading in gold and silver on the Moscow exchange will boost liquidity on the market and attract more participants by these new financial instruments, RBC quotes Sberbank as commenting.

http://rt.com/business/moscow-exchange-trading-metals-326/

羅家聰:亞幣恍如九七前

上月底放假之前，敝欄還一連兩篇寫亞洲貨幣戰，明言此乃口水玩意。話口未完，亞洲貨幣頓成跌市重災，之前高唱幣戰如箭在弦者現應驗了，分分鍾一發不可收拾！

年初，敝欄已問道「現在有幾似一九九七？」其時坊間在看恒指起碼兩萬七、八。事隔近半年，恒指現連兩萬都跌穿，九七的「味」已愈來愈濃。究竟時辰到未？

答 此一問，先要了解近代每次危機，幾乎都是彙市先出事：1997年8至10月?市，之前6月已有泰銖帶頭的一些亞洲貨幣出事；2007年10月?市，之前8 月彙市拆倉。若幹貨幣一齊急貶，別膚淺地再說幣戰，反而應留意一、兩季內將出現泡沫爆破危機。幣貶背景皆因美元單邊大升，而這多因美國單邊收緊政 策，1997年如是，現在亦然。

美彙指數今昔相似
十六年一個月前後的美彙指數，概自1992年中起至亞洲風暴期均與近年非常相似【圖1】。以此作為藍本，我們將見整個亞太區貨幣的走勢，均走不出這驚人的相似。

區 內主流貨幣澳元、日圓自然不在話下，自1991/92年起已見相似【圖2、3】。鄰近日本的韓、台，亦見1990年起至95/96年止，與十六年後的彙率 頗有相似之處，盡管當年彙率是變相掛鉤美元的窄幅浮動【圖4、5】。照度，彙率大散(直線貶值)之日在今年底；行文至此，其實上述的時辰一問已有答案，只 是韓圜一圖未太相似。

四小龍中，港元是徹頭徹尾掛美元的。最奇怪的，是將電彙價百餘點窄幅上落放大，也見走勢多少類同，尤在近年【圖 6】。此圖提醒我們一點：即使在1997年股樓皆?、資金流走，但因美元強帶動港元亦強的關系，港元並無如不少人所想當然般大幅貶值。至於餘下小龍新加 坡，亞洲風暴前七年的強元走勢，與過去七年的更無兩樣【圖7】。

繼主流貨幣與亞洲四小龍幣後，近年才崛起的金磚國，當年今日的彙價又否 類同？中國資本賬雖一直未開放，但近年人民幣與1994年大貶值後的一段都算相似【圖8】。至於印度，由1991年起的幾年與2007年起的幾年亦頗為相 似【圖9】。再落的南亞，馬來西亞的當年今日相似【圖10】，泰國的早期較似【圖11】，而印度尼西亞的則較後期才似【圖12】。最後在菲律賓方面，拼圖 將十六年一個月稍減兩個月至十五年十二個月，也似【圖13】。總之大多南亞國家而言，諸圖預示大幅貶值即將出現，最遲年底前。

今時經濟不比往日好
固然，與1997年前眾幣皆掛美元相比，今天各幣除港元外，浮動幅度普遍大了；這可從比較左右縱軸比例見到。不掛鉤而浮動，不等於彙價「任我行」，無危機時一樣fear offloating；等到熱錢湧入危機漸現時，縱無炒家狙擊彙價，央行亦自殺式貶值。

有雲今時不同往日，亞洲基調好得多了，尤其外彙儲備。且慢，九七前基調也好，不然不會煲得起四小龍奇跡神話；至於現在，諸國貿易、PMI等數據疲弱，好到哪去？無疑今時政府財政比往日好，但垃圾企業大量舉債，脆弱的財政只是轉至全民而已。

在下即將又再「?暑」兩個星期，同事劉振業再代筆兩次，下月19日再度歸位。

Gold – Sell – Buy – Hold?

馬田在今年3月份的文章內,

曾經提到要留意今年5/6月黃金的變化

Everything as far as strategy is concerned depends upon your position. Those who have physical coin it is more difficult to sell and buy than to hold. Traders must go with the trend. If you have tons of physical, then you should be a hedger. Gold has not BROKEN yet. It is in serious trouble but the key in gold lies at 15470, 15413, and 15323. We have a huge gap from there to 11589 and this is not real good from a trading perspective. If you are a trader, of course you must sell. Physical coins, in a reasonable quantity should just be hedged. Small quantities, of physical gold are typically just a hold.

The key areas of support will be 14650, 13800, 11500, and the extreme at 9070. Where does a BEAR MARKET begin long-term, 680. Therefore, that does not appear to be viable..Gold still looks to be headed to new highs after 2015.75.

There MUST be a correction in order to revitalize the market for a further advance. So, your risk in a decline to 11500 area down to 9070. Keep in mind that it will often take a poke below a major psychological number such as 1,000.to turn the majority bearish. In 1985 gold moved to 280.50 and then reversed. For 1999, that had to be penetrated and gold stopped at 254.0. Therefore, you can stop just a hairs-breath above a number such as 254 hold 250 or you can penetrate it up to generally 10% as 280 with the 300.

So it is entirely possible that if the 11500 gives way, we will stop just under 1,000 flushing out everyone who keeps saying buy and never sell. If that is too much risk, then sell and get back in with the first Monthly Bullish Reversal elected.

Gold is like ALL markets. It rises and falls. Physical gold with golds is an insurance policy. This is NOT the “investment” to make INCOME from. That requires trading or buying stocks that at least pay dividends.

Thus, buy, sell, or hold depends upon you personal threshold of pain and your objective. Trades – trade off the Reversals. We are not yet ready for prime time. We are still looking at May/June 2013 as a key target in TIME. Keep in mind, that the faster you decline, the faster it is over with. The slower more dragged out, the greater the risk of a dead market for several years. We will have to reassess where gold is come June.

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/03/02/gold-sell-buy-hold/

Jim Sinclair Selling Everything to Buy Gold

With gold breaking below $1200 , legendary gold trader Jim Sinclair has sent an email alert to subscribers advising PM investors that knowing the system is in collapse, he intends to buy gold with “every asset at my disposal today and tomorrow, and I suggest the stout of heart do the same“.


From Jim Sinclair:
The economic system is failing, and to counter the now publicly perceived failure, central planners are manipulating the symptoms and not the problem.

Gold has never been easy.
Gold is the tell tale of a broken system.
Gold therefore is the barometer of the risk factors of economic conditions.

Therefore central planners must make, via paper gold, every effort to make it say, “All is Ok.” For this reason I intend, knowing the system is in collapse, to buy gold with every resource I have at my disposal today and tomorrow.

I suggest those of stout heart do the same.

To the others who are committed to their limit, hunker down one more time knowing that in no more than the summer a brand new and most powerful bull market in gold will be at hand.

Respectfully,
Jim