2014年2月1日星期六
債權人密會，希臘危機或重現
據華爾街日報報導，知情人士透露，國際貨幣基金組織、歐盟委員會、歐洲央行、歐元區高級官員、德國和法國財長就希臘問題舉行秘密會議，當前官員們對希臘問題的擔憂在加劇。
官員們試圖解決兩大問題，因為它們干擾到了希臘弱勢的經濟復甦，給整體歐元區的複蘇也帶來不利影響。這兩大問題是：
1. 如何給希臘政府施加壓力，讓希臘政府推進並不受歡迎的結構改革。
2. 如何爭取額外的資金來覆蓋今年下半年希臘的融資問題，預計希臘財務上有50~60億歐元的缺口。
知情人士稱，秘密會議沒有什麼討論結果。歐盟、國際貨幣基金組織和歐洲央行組成的檢查小組Troika與希臘當局遠程談判。據透露，Troika暫時擱置了原定前往雅典的計劃。
官員們對希臘問題的擔憂在加劇，主要由於今年5月，將有110億歐元希臘政府債券到期。去年7月以來，國際貨幣基金組織沒有給希臘撥付任何救助資金。目前，應撥付但還未撥付的救助資金高達38億歐元，因為國際貨幣基金組織堅持讓希臘給出未來12個月的國家財政前景，但希臘始終不能滿足要求。
Troika告訴希臘，不會給希臘救助資金，除非希臘進行改革。希臘則承諾，一旦拿到救助資金，就會進行改革。
希臘主權和獨立性被“剝奪”已經不是什麼新鮮事情了。不過這一次，這種情形更進一步：本週的秘密會議討論希臘問題，官員們並沒有邀請希臘財長Yiannis Stournaras參加。舉行會議之時，Stournaras與這些官員們就在一棟大樓裡。
瑞銀：小摩黃金庫存跌47% COMEX交割風險大增
要來的一天,始終要來.....
摩根大通庫存大跌47%
瑞銀集團（UBS）場內交易主管、擁有50年市場經驗的Art Cashin向投資者推薦其好友Jim Brown的觀點稱，“目前實物黃金的交割危機正在形成。大家都知道摩根大通的實物黃金儲量在全球排名居前，它們不但自己儲備黃金，也接受客戶委託買入黃金。”
據最新消息顯示，摩根大通在上週從未註冊庫存（eligible）中大量提取黃金後，本週一（1月27日）再度出現大單交割。
上週摩根大通(JP Morgan)從金庫撤出了大量黃金，引起市場關註。而從Comex最新數據顯示，週一金庫中再度有32.15萬盎司被拿出。
這32.15萬盎司和之前摩根大通取出的數量相同，且佔其黃金儲備的28%。也就是說，摩根大通47%的黃金儲備在短短幾天之內被取走。
50萬盎司實物支撐4100萬盎司盤面
Art Cashin繼續指出，Comex註冊黃金庫存（registered）已經降至40萬盎司的歷史新低，令庫存覆蓋率上升至92。這意味著，每盎司庫存黃金背後，有92位訴求者。而該數據在1月17日更是達到瘋狂的111.6。
Cashin警告稱，“試想一下，僅僅50萬盎司的黃金庫存，要支撐龐大的4100萬盎司規模的賬面黃金交易。只要有一小部分合約要求實物交割，金價將會面臨強大的上行壓力。”
Marc Faber: “Physical Gold” In Switzerland and Singapore Is 20% Of “Net Worth”
About 20% of my net worth is in gold. I don’t even value it in my portfolio.”
“Individuals are making a mistake if they’re holding all their assets in one country.…I still have the majority of my gold in Switzerland, but I am already moving gold to Asia.“
From Goldcore:
Today’s AM fix was USD 1,254.00, EUR 922.20 and GBP 761.89 per ounce.
Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,254.75, EUR 917.89 and GBP 756.42 per ounce.
Gold climbed $15.70 or 1.25% yesterday to $1,269.80/oz. Silver rose $0.20 or 1.02% to $19.78/oz.
Gold is marginally lower in most currencies today paring the first monthly advance since August. The gains yesterday came despite the U.S. Federal Reserve further reducing their massive bond buying programme to $65 billion a month.
Bullion for immediate delivery lost as much as 0.6% to $1,260.10/oz and was at $1,261.46 at 1500 in Singapore. Prices rose 0.8% yesterday on concern a rout in emerging-market assets may deepen and lead to contagion, leading to safe haven demand.
Increased physical demand in Asia has helped gold to rebound from a six-month low on December 31.
Marc Faber is back with a wide-ranging must read interview with Barron’s. The astute investor who has a clear track record in protecting and growing wealth urged investors to own physical gold.
“Own physical gold because the old system will implode. Those who own paper assets are doomed.”
Faber added,
“I have no faith in paper money, period. Next, insider buying is also high in gold shares. Gold has massively underperformed relative to the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000. Maybe the price will go down some from here, but individual investors and my fellow panelists and Barron’s editors ought to own some gold.”
With regards to his allocation to physical gold, Faber was as transparent and candid as ever and said that he holds about 20% of his net worth in physical gold.
Marc Faber
“About 20% of my net worth is in gold. I don’t even value it in my portfolio.”
Faber told the Wall Street Journal in December 2012 that:
“Individuals are making a mistake if they’re holding all their assets in one country.…I still have the majority of my gold in Switzerland, but I am already moving gold to Asia,” he said.
Mr. Faber said his Asian storage center of choice is the Singapore FreePort, located in its own duty-free zone near the city’s airport.
麥嘉華：市場很快陷入恐慌 20%資本凈值是黃金
麥嘉華透露，“美聯儲的一項分析數據顯示，大約半數美國人，自2007年以來，財富縮水40%。”他認為，美國股市的瘋狂上漲，並未給多數美國人帶來收益。
麥嘉華對美國公司的盈利結構表示質疑。他指出，數據顯示，在一些板塊，公司內部人員正在瘋狂拋售。一些公司一邊上調盈利，但卻未能足額繳納養老金。這是一個很大的問題。
末日博士建議，做空衡量美國小型股的羅素2000指數，同時買入10年期美債和黃金或黃金股。後者也是內部買入最積極的板塊之一。
麥嘉華承認，“我對紙幣沒有信心，我20%的資本凈值是黃金。”
Harvey Organ: 20 Tons of Gold “Kilo Bars” Withdrawn From JPM Vaults & Headed to Hong Kong!
Harvey Organ joins the SD Weekly Metals & Markets Wrap this week to warn of a possible February COMEX Gold Default:
We’re coming to you after the Thursday market close. Harvey Organ, publisher of “Harvey Organ’s Daily Gold & Silver Report” joins us for a spirited conversation. Harvey is now publishing daily during the market week, by the way. Check out his website.
This time last week, the blogosphere was still a buzz with fear that China’s shadow banking system was going to implode this week. But as we correctly noted, there were already indications that China was not going to let that happen. Certainly, they have only kicked the can down the road. But a centrally planned economy does have certain advantages. Unlike many analysts, I believe China has a good chance of being able to continue a difficult juggling act, managing to deal with their huge mal-investment and underwater credit burden. I still believe China will continue to aggressively reform and internationalize their financial markets. They will be able to let their currency rise even as much of the rest of the emerging markets continue to struggle.
Meanwhile, China’s appetite for gold shows no sign of abating. This week is setting up for record shattering Shanghai Gold Exchange off-take. Between Monday, Jan. 27th and Thursday, Jan 30th, 92.434 metric tonnes have been removed from the exchange. Odds are, we’ll see weekly off-take hitting an all time record, exceeding 100 metric tonnes! Tune into the show for extensive analysis of this and related inventory dynamics.
This week, rather than seeing precious metals take a large beating in advance of the Fed’s FOMC statement, the cartel waited for today to remind people who’s boss (for now). The timing is most likely influenced by the proximity of “first notice” day, as Harvey explains.
Friday is Uncle Ben’s last day at the office. Maybe we should post one last “Punt The Bernank“ Friday for old time sake. We’ll miss B.S. Ben. But Janet Yellen will no doubt have her comedic moments, worthy of satire.
Keep an eye on the Ukraine. The US media is not covering that story with suitable detail. The Ukraine could easily trigger a black swan scenario. The News Doctors has highlighted a number of detailed reports, including this one from Russian Television. Keep an eye on TND for continued coverage.
We also recommend you make time for a revealing 2 minute video that highlights Russian perspective on the US Dollar. Click here.
Thanks for listening,
Eric Dubin
- Continued decline in “registered” gold inventory at the COMEX- 2o tons of gold “kilo bars” withdrawn from JPM vaults headed to Hong Kong!
- 2014 will mark the year where physical forces deep “managed retreat” in the least
- Geopolitical and Global Macro review: From MyRA & pension fund confiscation to Ukraine & Emerging Markets
- Fed Taper Review- Eric believes the Fed will overshoot tapering to $50 billion/month, while Harvey believes Wednesday’s taper will be the last
- Harvey discusses why February may very well see strains to the point of the long anticipated COMEX default in gold!
We’re coming to you after the Thursday market close. Harvey Organ, publisher of “Harvey Organ’s Daily Gold & Silver Report” joins us for a spirited conversation. Harvey is now publishing daily during the market week, by the way. Check out his website.
This time last week, the blogosphere was still a buzz with fear that China’s shadow banking system was going to implode this week. But as we correctly noted, there were already indications that China was not going to let that happen. Certainly, they have only kicked the can down the road. But a centrally planned economy does have certain advantages. Unlike many analysts, I believe China has a good chance of being able to continue a difficult juggling act, managing to deal with their huge mal-investment and underwater credit burden. I still believe China will continue to aggressively reform and internationalize their financial markets. They will be able to let their currency rise even as much of the rest of the emerging markets continue to struggle.
Meanwhile, China’s appetite for gold shows no sign of abating. This week is setting up for record shattering Shanghai Gold Exchange off-take. Between Monday, Jan. 27th and Thursday, Jan 30th, 92.434 metric tonnes have been removed from the exchange. Odds are, we’ll see weekly off-take hitting an all time record, exceeding 100 metric tonnes! Tune into the show for extensive analysis of this and related inventory dynamics.
This week, rather than seeing precious metals take a large beating in advance of the Fed’s FOMC statement, the cartel waited for today to remind people who’s boss (for now). The timing is most likely influenced by the proximity of “first notice” day, as Harvey explains.
Friday is Uncle Ben’s last day at the office. Maybe we should post one last “Punt The Bernank“ Friday for old time sake. We’ll miss B.S. Ben. But Janet Yellen will no doubt have her comedic moments, worthy of satire.
Keep an eye on the Ukraine. The US media is not covering that story with suitable detail. The Ukraine could easily trigger a black swan scenario. The News Doctors has highlighted a number of detailed reports, including this one from Russian Television. Keep an eye on TND for continued coverage.
We also recommend you make time for a revealing 2 minute video that highlights Russian perspective on the US Dollar. Click here.
Thanks for listening,
Eric Dubin
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