The
Daily Ticker's Lauren Lyster interviewed Jim Rickards regarding the
Bundesbank's recent announcement that it will repatriate over 600 tons
of German gold from the NY Fed and the Bank of France, and its
implications on the gold market over the short and long term.
Rickards stated that the Bundesbank's gold repatriation is world historical , is massively bullish for gold, and believes that China has doubled to tripled its gold reserves since the last official statement of 1,054 tonnes in 2009 !
Rickards interview on gold is a MUST WATCH!!
Regarding the Bundesbank's repatriation of gold from the NY Fed and the Bank of France Rickards stated:
This is a very big deal. Now it hasn't had much short term impact on the price of gold, but this is actually world historical in my view. The German gold has been in New York since the early 1950′s! After WWII Germany had no gold because it had all been confiscated. They gradually began to earn gold through trade surpluses. In
those days, the 50′s, 60′s, and 70s you could cash in your dollars and
get gold- but they left it in NY for very good reasons. It
was during the Cold War, there were Soviet attacks outside of Berlin,
and they didn't want to take their gold back to Germany. But now, 25 years after the Cold War ended, they're saying we want out gold back! They waited a very long time, and they're bringing it back in stages, but here's the thing: gold is either money, or it's not . If gold is not money, you might as well leave it in NY because the storage is a pain in the neck, but if it is money, you would certainly want it back in Frankfurt, and that's what the Germans are saying.
Regarding the implications of the German gold repatriation for the price of gold Rickards stated:
Certainly
the gold bugs are saying this is the beginning of the end, Germany's
taking their gold back and the price is going to scream. But you have to understand that 99.9% of investors don't get gold. Warren Buffett comes out and says it's just a shiny metal with no yield, gold hasn't been taught academically for 40 years. So we have 2 generations of scholars that anyone under the age of 50 that knows anything about gold is self-taught as they've stopped teaching it in the schools. Institution
allocations of gold are about 1.5%- their portfolio's are about 40%
stocks, 40% bonds, and about 1% gold, so there is an educational
function that has to go on. The gold will get there, but not all at once.
When asked whether he was bullish short term for gold, Rickards replied:
Absolutely, but you have to pick your currency terms. In dollar terms gold hasn't gone up much lately, but in yen terms with the devaluation of the yen, gold is going up a lot . Gold
is a part of the function of currency wars, and you have to look around
the world at who is weakening their currency the most, and that's where
gold is going up the most, but it (the currencies) take turns.
Lyster asked Rickards how much China's gold reserves might actually be increasing:
China's gold reserves are going up. We don't know officially how much they're going up, officially they say its 1,054 tonnes. But when they announced that in 2009, their previous announcement was 600 tonnes in 2004. They spent 5 years acquiring 500 tonnes secretly . Not it's been 4 years since then, and I'm certain they've been acquiring it secretly in the meantime. In
fact I know, as I've been to China and Hong Kong recently and spoken to
the people who have been buying the gold for the Chinese account . So we don't know exactly how much they have, I estimate over 2,000 tonnes, but I've heard some estimates of 3,000 tonnes . And they don't have to move their gold from London, because they send it directly to their vaults in Shanghai.
Click here for Rickards full interview on gold with Lauren Lyster:
Gold prospectors may one day use Petri dishes to help with
their quests. A species of bacterium forms nanoscale gold nuggets to
help it to grow in toxic solutions of the precious metal, reports a
paper published online today in Nature Chemical Biology.
The molecule with which the bacteria create the particles could one
day be used to collect gold from mine waste, says Frank Reith, an
environmental microbiologist at the University of Adelaide in Australia,
who works on gold-processing bacteria but was not involved in the
latest study.
Reith found some of the first convincing evidence that bacteria
thrive on gold particles about ten years ago. At multiple sites,
thousands of kilometres apart, he and his team found the bacterium
Cupriavidus metallidurans living in biofilms on gold nuggets. The
bacteria detoxify dissolved gold by accumulating it in inert
nanoparticles inside their cells2; Reith and his colleagues have spent
the past decade working out how, but have not yet published their
complete conclusions.
Some biofilms also contained a second species of bacterium: Delftia
acidovarans. Nathan Magarvey, a biochemist at McMaster University in
Hamilton, Canada, and his team grew this species in the presence of a
gold solution and discovered that the bacterial colonies were surrounded
by dark haloes of gold nanoparticles. The researchers concluded that D.
acidovarans was somehow creating gold particles outside its cell wall,
instead of inside as C. metallidurans does.
Using biochemical and genome analysis, the researchers discovered a
set of genes and a chemical metabolite that were responsible for
precipitating the gold. Bacteria engineered to lack the genes no longer
formed dark haloes, and their growth was stunted in the presence of
gold. The team also isolated a chemical produced by the unengineered
bacteria that caused gold particles to precipitate out of a solution.
The chemical was dubbed delftibactin.
The researchers suggest that the genes they identified are involved
in producing delftibactin and shunting it outside the cell. By
precipitating gold, D. acidovarans may keep the metal from entering its
cells in solution. But Magarvey says that it is possible that D.
acidovarans also uses other mechanisms to detoxify gold that breaches
its cell walls.
Margarvey’s work “complements ours really well”, says Reith. The two
bacterial species might live in symbiosis, with D. acidovarans using
delftibactin to diminish the soluble gold to levels that both species
can cope with.
A microbe-assisted gold rush might yet happen, says Reith.
Delftibactin could be used to produce gold-nanoparticle catalysts for
many chemical reactions, or to precipitate gold from waste water
produced at mines. “The idea could be to use a bacterium or metabolite
to seed these waste-drop piles, leave them standing for years, and see
if bigger particles form,” says Reith.
Magarvey takes those applications seriously: he has secured
intellectual-property rights for delftibactin. But he emphasizes that he
is most interested in understanding the metabolite’s chemical
properties. “I wish I could say we’re up here in Canada growing kilos of
gold everyday.”
2013年02月05日 09:59 文 / 莫西幹
FTav：俄羅斯鋁業（Rusal）CEO Oleg Deripaska在本週一接受每日電訊報採訪時說了一番頗具啟發性的話。
這家有色金屬生產企業巨頭相信，鋁價今年的表現要比預期更好。主要因為鋁業終於都淘汰了過去一直困擾這個行業的過剩產能。
據每日電訊報報導：
Deripaska表示：“有一段時期，居高不下的鋁價吸引了大量的投資者進入這個行業，因而製造了過剩的產能...這些過剩的產能受到銀行的壓力，必須維持經營。”為了應對過剩的供應，Rusal已經完成了一個“投資計劃，我們重組了我們大部分的產能，我們封存了一些設備，把產出最優化，我們還制定了未來三年非常合理的產出計劃。”
更有趣的是，Deripaska對倉庫中鋁庫存的金融化和證券化的看法。看來，Deripaska“鋁市場緊俏的看法”，與大部分可見庫存其實已經被金融交易鎖定的事實是有關係的。因此，當Deripaska衡量市場需求的時候，他只會去看有多少鋁金屬是可供出售的，而忽視了購買者的購買目的。
據每日電訊報報導：
在（金融交易）一般的安排中，銀行或大宗商品交易商會購買現貨金屬，然後在期貨市場出售套利，同時敲定一個廉價的倉存協議，把這些現貨金屬抽離市場。 “如果你把所有被倉庫和金融交易鎖定的金屬庫存抹去，那麼你將會發現市場上沒有金屬可供出售了。”Deripaska表示：“鋁市場現在的供求關係非常緊張，兩年之內將會出現供應不足。”看似高居不下的鋁庫存，其實製造了錯誤的分析，因為這些庫存都是不可出售的。 “今年，鋁價將超出市場預期地上漲。我不會給出具體的預期，我只是嘗試明確地指出...現在的價格機制存在著大量的人為因素。”
Deripaska說的是對的。可以這麼說，鋁現在有點像黃金了。
鋁的吸引力來自鋁期貨的價格曲線結構，（因為出現期貨溢價），鋁已經變成了“儲存並賣出”套利交易的理想產品。這意味著，就像黃金市場一樣，雖然存在大量多餘的鋁庫存，但現在鋁的實際價格取決於，佔比越來越小的在市場上自由流動的鋁金屬。傳統意義上的庫存數據因此而變得具有具有迷惑性，因為高庫存不再是供過於求的市場信號。這是因為，大部分的庫存都被抽離了市場，不可供購買。
實際上，現在存在兩個影響價格的關鍵因素。一個是傳統的消費率。另一個可以成為“再埋藏率”——也就是，人們能以多快的速度把剛挖掘出來的鋁重新“埋藏”在倉庫中，因為期貨價格曲線驅動市場參與者這麼做。
從資產負債表的觀點上看，那些持有這些證券化（票據化）鋁庫存的人/企業，通常會把其當成現金等價物處理。 （這就像很多人看待黃金一樣。）這是因為一旦這些金屬庫存被鎖定，無論是意圖還是目的，它們都是被完全對沖的。所有者並不承擔任何價格風險，而只是靜待獲得回報。因為鋁期貨價格曲線已經長期維持在能補償儲存成本的狀態，所以鋁套利收益，可能要比投資爭搶激烈的無風險資產來得吸引。
同時，在黃金市場，發生了相反的情況。因為在危機以後，黃金的“再埋藏率”不斷加快，通過完全對沖黃金價格的套利空間已經被擠走了。這不但使持有全面對沖的黃金投資變得不再吸引，而且還開始損害了投資者獲取足夠回報補償儲存成本的能力。
因此，我們開始聽到一些新聞，一些投資銀行正對金市失去興趣，同時提高黃金的儲存費用（瑞士銀行開始收取儲存黃金的費用）。
同時，我們還能用相似的思路分析白銀市場在發生什麼。如果從金融機構從未喜歡過承擔黃金頭寸風險的觀點上看（用盈利中心的觀點，起碼一些傳統銀行業務部門是不願意承擔風險的），很明顯，這些機構正發現，在金銀的市場上，越來越難做到收支平衡了。因此，黃金正在變得資本密集了，而且經常是負收益的業務。
這樣的情況繼續下去，這些機構可能會不斷向市場賣出金銀庫存，那麼“再埋藏”局面可能會被扭轉成“去庫存”局面，所以未來美聯儲推出再多的QE，金銀價格也可能維持在窄幅波動。
當然，在鋁市場上，“再埋藏”的市場動力還沒被擠走。短時間內，鋁期貨價格曲線還會給“再埋藏”操作提供回報。也就是說，當鋁期貨的價格曲線長期實質上地轉向現貨溢價（可能因為預期之外的減產引起的），那麼鋁市場將會像今天金市那樣轉變。那時候，儲存和金融化鋁庫存將不再有意義，而只能選擇相反的方向——去庫存化。
諷刺的是，我們可能首先看到的是鋁價大漲——因為出現任何去庫存化的潮流前，去庫存化的信號都必須得到實質性的鞏固。
這可能就是Deripaska這麼肯定鋁價今年有戲的原因。
根據東京商品交易所(Tokyo Commodity
Exchange)於官網公佈的資訊顯示，4日東京黃金期貨收盤價為4,996日圓(每公克價格；以下同)，較1日收盤價增加了53日圓，創下1982年
3月掛牌上市以來收盤新高紀錄；東京黃金期貨4日盤中最高飆至5,000日圓，為掛盤上市以來首度站上5,000日圓關卡、並已連續第3個交易日創下掛牌
新高紀錄。
因國際黃金以美元計價，故美元兌日圓持續走貶，也極易推升以日圓計價的日本黃金價格走揚。據日本媒體報導，2月4日當天日本黃金零售價格
達5,240日圓，較2月1日增加67日圓，創32年4個月來新高水準；若不含稅則為4,991日圓，創約33年來(1980年3月以來)新高水準。
以日圓計價的黃金價格飆升，也提振日本黃金ETF走揚。嘉實XQ全球贏家系統的報價顯示，日本第一檔黃金ETF(2010年7月2日掛牌)
「Mitsubishi UFJ Trust Gold ETF(Japan Physical Gold
ETF；代號：1540.JP)」4日上揚1.13%，收4,905日圓，已連續第3個交易日創掛牌來收盤新高紀錄。
據日經指出，因日本黃金價格自2012年底起就持續走升，造成散戶持續進行了結獲利的動作，惟目前該種趨勢已轉變。據報導，截至2月4日為止來自日
本個人投資者及基金的黃金買超幅度達約2萬400枚(1枚=1公斤)，自1月中旬以來已增加了3成。報導指出，因日圓匯率中長期看貶，故吸引散戶開始買入
黃金。
嘉實XQ全球贏家系統的報價顯示，截至4日紐約匯市尾盤為止美元兌日圓貶值0.40%至92.38，為5個交易日來首度走貶，盤中最高點93.18創2010年5月13日以來新高水準。
時事新聞社1月5日報導，日本首相安倍晉三(Shinzo Abe)設定的「2%通膨」目標預料將使得黃金成為日本當地熱門的投資商品。日本央行(BOJ)於1月22日宣布，通膨率目標將自原先設定的「1%」提高至「2%」。
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全球新一輪金融戰爭已是山雨欲來，「弱勢日元」成為這場貨幣戰爭的導火索。
「日本經濟仍未能走出通縮和日元升值的泥潭，未來將采取大膽的貨幣策略。」1月28日，安倍晉三的施政演說一經推出，即在東南亞地區掀起軒然大波。當日，新台幣大幅下跌超過1%；韓元狂瀉1.7%，跌至近兩個月以來的最低位。
印度宣布緊急降息，抵禦熱錢流入；泰國財長更是怒斥日元貶值重創泰國出口；在達沃斯論壇上，德國罕見地嚴厲批評日本匯率政策；英國的做法更為直接，英國央行行長金恩近期表態：「需要讓英鎊貶值！」
「假設日元大幅度貶值，全球其他國家積極跟進，不排除新一輪貨幣戰爭爆發的可能。」資深國際金融問題專家趙慶明告訴《中國經營報(博客,微博)》記者，新一輪貨幣戰爭可能率先在東南亞地區打響，美元、歐元是否跟進值得追蹤。
匯率大戰一觸即發，國際黃金市場的動向越發微妙。俄羅斯、土耳其等國央行大量增加黃金儲備，德國更是掀起一輪「黃金回家」的浪潮。隨著國際匯市的動蕩加劇，黃金的避險地位越發凸顯。
