It used to be
that when I spoke about gold, the folks that listened would look at me
as if I were speaking in some ancient foreign language that nobody could
understand. Lately, as I stand at my spot on trading floor of the New
York Stock Exchange, willing to talk the financial markets or baseball
with anyone who's also willing—more and more am I asked about gold.
Several times a week in fact.
In
case you missed it, when the World Gold Council released its Q1 data,
total demand for gold was up 21% year-over-year, largely due to demand
for investment purposes. There were yearly declines in demand from Q1
2015 to Q1 2016 for jewelry, technology purposes, and even purchases
made by central banks. Demand for investment purposes was up 122%
year-over-year. That says something. It says that I am not alone in my
thoughts. If the central banks (huge buyers in recent years) get started
again, watch out.
So, what
is it about this barbarous relic that it refuses to just go away
quietly? Is it money? Is it a commodity? Quite frankly, I think it is
both. There certainly are characteristics that even the most impure of
monetarists can not deny: store of wealth, divisibility, and even at
times of crisis, a medium of exchange.
If
you follow my notes, you know my current allocation toward gold is
7.5%. We took it to that level from 5% in late December, and we've
flirted with taking it even higher in recent weeks, though we have
dragged our feet. My thought is that if the physical (which is the best
way to own) were to make another run at $1,300 an ounce that you may
want to be at 10% for the long haul. Conversely, if the yellow metal
were to run the other way, I think you lighten up at $1,210 before
throwing away your profits from Q1.
Gold
is a very difficult asset to value in terms of fiat currency, and one's
short-term view on it really depends on global monetary policies.
Should the FOMC tighten in the near future—while the rest of the planet
is still easing—there will likely be a pullback in price, at least in
dollar terms. However, should there be no attempt to tighten—or maybe
even if there is a failed attempt—this could cut the beast loose. We've
all seen what this beast can do when it gets loose. Crazier things have
happened and can happen again.
Long-term?
I bet you saw how the IMF is pressuring the eurozone to allow Greece to
put off paying any interest or even principal on its bail-out loans
until 2040. Does anyone among us truly believe that the global debt
super-cycle will never come to an end? Not tomorrow, not next year. But
there will be a do-over at some point.
There
is a likelihood that gold will play a role in the next monetary system.
I look at this as insurance—a way to preserve a slice of your portfolio
should the bad guys ever hit that reset button.
