2012年10月31日星期三
“Gold cards” are the new bribe in China
October 29, 2012,
En route to Los Angeles.
Greetings from Hong Kong International Airport; just a quick note today as I’m just about to hop a plane bound for California.
Before I head out, I wanted to tell you about an interesting trend we’ve been seeing and hearing about from our business colleagues in Asia.
Yesterday we briefly discussed how demand for physical gold in Hong Kong is surging right now; this is in no small part due to the droves of mainland Chinese coming across the border.
Many of them head to Shenzhen and walk over into Hong Kong. They often use older people as ‘gold mules’ to smuggle in their precious metals. The elderly typically receive great deference in China, so they aren’t screened as vigorously at land border checkpoints. It makes it easier to carry in 50-100 ounces.
When mainlanders arrive, they store their gold in a safety deposit box at one of Hong Kong’s many banks, and typically try to buy even more.
This is one of the chief reasons why there’s a dearth of inventory in Hong Kong right now, particularly for the Chinese panda coin that they’re so familiar with.
Hong Kong also seems to be a popular place for Chinese bureaucrats to store their ill-gotten wealth. In fact, one of the new trends we’ve seen and heard about from business colleagues in Asia is how mainland officials are now receiving bribes in the form of solid gold business cards.
Imagine you’re a businessman in Xian who needs some silly permit, and you have to grease a local bureaucrat. It would be untoward to deliver a suitcase full of cash… especially these days with all the internal scrutiny from the Bo Xilai incident.
So now what business people seem to be doing is minting solid gold business cards. When they want to bribe an official, they schedule a meeting, and hand them a business card or six. It’s so innocuous, nobody really notices.
For the bureaucrat, it’s much simpler to travel with a few ‘gold cards’ than cash. And Hong Kong is an easy place to store a collection of such cards… or even melt them down into other forms.
I have to run, they’re about to close the aircraft door! Talk to you on the other side… and best of luck if you’re without power at the moment.
Original Source
En route to Los Angeles.
Greetings from Hong Kong International Airport; just a quick note today as I’m just about to hop a plane bound for California.
Before I head out, I wanted to tell you about an interesting trend we’ve been seeing and hearing about from our business colleagues in Asia.
Yesterday we briefly discussed how demand for physical gold in Hong Kong is surging right now; this is in no small part due to the droves of mainland Chinese coming across the border.
Many of them head to Shenzhen and walk over into Hong Kong. They often use older people as ‘gold mules’ to smuggle in their precious metals. The elderly typically receive great deference in China, so they aren’t screened as vigorously at land border checkpoints. It makes it easier to carry in 50-100 ounces.
When mainlanders arrive, they store their gold in a safety deposit box at one of Hong Kong’s many banks, and typically try to buy even more.
This is one of the chief reasons why there’s a dearth of inventory in Hong Kong right now, particularly for the Chinese panda coin that they’re so familiar with.
Hong Kong also seems to be a popular place for Chinese bureaucrats to store their ill-gotten wealth. In fact, one of the new trends we’ve seen and heard about from business colleagues in Asia is how mainland officials are now receiving bribes in the form of solid gold business cards.
Imagine you’re a businessman in Xian who needs some silly permit, and you have to grease a local bureaucrat. It would be untoward to deliver a suitcase full of cash… especially these days with all the internal scrutiny from the Bo Xilai incident.
So now what business people seem to be doing is minting solid gold business cards. When they want to bribe an official, they schedule a meeting, and hand them a business card or six. It’s so innocuous, nobody really notices.
For the bureaucrat, it’s much simpler to travel with a few ‘gold cards’ than cash. And Hong Kong is an easy place to store a collection of such cards… or even melt them down into other forms.
I have to run, they’re about to close the aircraft door! Talk to you on the other side… and best of luck if you’re without power at the moment.
Original Source
羅姆尼是金價走勢的重大威脅
美國
2012年10月31日 10:59 文 / 莫西幹
FT：如果讓黃金投資者決定美國大選結果，那羅姆尼肯定出局。
黃金狂熱者一直擔心潛在的貨幣貶值，而最為關注的又是美國政府的負債問題。共和黨的削減財政赤字政治理念引起了他們的注意。
所以，下週二美國大選羅姆尼勝出可能是金價當前最大的單一風險。
瑞銀的Joni Teves表示：“投資者廣泛認為羅姆尼勝出是金價下行的風險。在大選結果出來前，沒有人會有大動作。”
歷史數據支持了這個觀點。匯豐的James Steel指出，在1980到2011年間，金價大部分大漲都發生在民主黨人入主白宮的時候（卡特和奧巴馬）。如果羅姆尼能成功消滅財政赤字，這樣可能導緻美元走強，也意味著金價走低。
但真實的“羅姆尼威脅”並不是在財政政策上。交易員和投資者更為關注的是，如果羅姆尼獲勝，他很可能用一個鷹派人物替代伯南克美聯儲主席的位置——伯南克的現有任期將在2014年1月結束。
如果這意味著改變當前實驗性的超寬鬆貨幣政策方向，金價肯定受害。今年年初，當預期QE政策推出時間被推遲，黃金市場出現了拋售。
一個大型對沖基金投資者表示：“從黃金市場的角度，美聯儲是重要的因素。”
同理，奧巴馬勝出可能被看作是金價牛市的啟動信號。
這不但意味著將與很可能被共和黨控制的眾議院引發激烈的爭論，但更重要的是這意味著消除了貨幣政策出現重大變化的可能性。在奧巴馬的任期內，伯南克很可能會被一位鴿派人物替代，比如說現任美聯儲副主席Janet Yellen。
一些交易商已經開始津津有味地預期奧巴馬的勝利。
位於芝加哥的珠寶集團House of Kahn副主席Tobina Kahn預期銷售會上升，“因為大家都希望保護資產價值。”“如果奧巴馬獲勝，金價將會起飛。”
QE9！ ：日本維持利率不變，資產購買計劃擴大11萬億日元
日本央行議息會議後，宣布維持目標利率區間在0.0%-0.1%不變，擴大資產購買及貸款計劃規模11萬億日元至91萬億日元，增加長期國債、國庫券購買各5萬億日元，增加商業票據購買0.1萬億日元，企業債券購買0.3萬億日元，增加ETFs購買0.5萬億日元，增加J-REITs購買0.01萬億日元。
日本央行將2012/13財年核心CPI預期下調至0.1%，同時下調2013/14財年核心CPI預期至0.4%。
日本央行在會後與日本政府聯合發布的聲明中表示日本央行建立了“刺激銀行信貸工具”基本框架。該計劃要點包括：
1. 日本央行決定以低利率向金融機構提供長期資金，金額最高等於其貸款淨增加額，以刺激其採取積極行動，幫助增加企業和家庭部門的信貸需求。
2. 該工具下的貸款金額無上限，根據8月數據估算，日本金融機構一年增加的信貸規模約15萬億日元。
此外，日本央行還與日本政府一起發布了一個聯合聲明，表示央行將與政府聯手應對通縮挑戰。聲明中提到：
日本央行將繼續強有力寬鬆以達到1%的通脹目標。央行將在治理通縮的內閣會議上定期報告對價格的展望。央行還將繼續努力向市場清晰解釋其對貨幣政策的看法。
日本政府強烈預期日本央行將繼續其強有力的寬鬆措施直至通縮被克服。
11萬億日元的規模基本符合此前市場10萬億日元的預期，日元在決議宣布後第一時間走強：
三菱UFJ摩根士丹利高級經濟學家鹿野達史（TATSUSHI SHIKANO）：
市場預期10萬億日元（資產購買計劃的擴張），因此日本央行希望可以超出預期，因此擴大了11萬億日元，然而事實上這大致與每個人的預期相同。
決議公佈後市場下跌，因為人們期望日本央行能夠出台規模更大的計劃，而央行出台的措施基本與預期一致。
如今的問題是央行是否會繼續擴大其貨幣基礎。如果答案是否定的話，日元將再度走強，這將對日本經濟產生負面影響。
關於日本政府與日本央行的聯合聲明：為何之前沒有這麼做。這份聲明意味著我們可以預期未來有更多寬鬆措施。
美銀美林首席日本經濟學家MASAYUKI KICHIKAWA：
“日本央行沒有延長作為購買目標的日本國債的期限。新的貸款計劃沒有設定規模上限，只要銀行將所得的資金貸給私人部門，這一點頗有爭議性。我認為外匯市場有點失望。問題並不在於銀行的放貸能力，而是在於匯率高企及通縮引致的融資需求缺乏。市場對日本央行還有期待。原本市場預期日本央行增加的資產購買規模是15-20萬億日元。 ”
東京日精基礎研究所首席經濟學家櫨浩一：
- 日央行所推出的寬鬆政策符合預期，但市場可能略有失望，以致日元走高。
- 日央行可能仍面臨貨幣寬鬆的壓力。歐美經濟復甦可能致日元進一步升值。若日本經濟未顯現明確的走出通縮的跡象，進一步寬鬆的政治壓力也將日趨增大。
- 日本國內經濟似正走向衰退，但是否真致衰退取決於全球經濟情況，日央行今年內應會推出進一步寬鬆政策。
日本央行將2012/13財年核心CPI預期下調至0.1%，同時下調2013/14財年核心CPI預期至0.4%。
日本央行在會後與日本政府聯合發布的聲明中表示日本央行建立了“刺激銀行信貸工具”基本框架。該計劃要點包括：
1. 日本央行決定以低利率向金融機構提供長期資金，金額最高等於其貸款淨增加額，以刺激其採取積極行動，幫助增加企業和家庭部門的信貸需求。
2. 該工具下的貸款金額無上限，根據8月數據估算，日本金融機構一年增加的信貸規模約15萬億日元。
此外，日本央行還與日本政府一起發布了一個聯合聲明，表示央行將與政府聯手應對通縮挑戰。聲明中提到：
日本央行將繼續強有力寬鬆以達到1%的通脹目標。央行將在治理通縮的內閣會議上定期報告對價格的展望。央行還將繼續努力向市場清晰解釋其對貨幣政策的看法。
日本政府強烈預期日本央行將繼續其強有力的寬鬆措施直至通縮被克服。
11萬億日元的規模基本符合此前市場10萬億日元的預期，日元在決議宣布後第一時間走強：
三菱UFJ摩根士丹利高級經濟學家鹿野達史（TATSUSHI SHIKANO）：
市場預期10萬億日元（資產購買計劃的擴張），因此日本央行希望可以超出預期，因此擴大了11萬億日元，然而事實上這大致與每個人的預期相同。
決議公佈後市場下跌，因為人們期望日本央行能夠出台規模更大的計劃，而央行出台的措施基本與預期一致。
如今的問題是央行是否會繼續擴大其貨幣基礎。如果答案是否定的話，日元將再度走強，這將對日本經濟產生負面影響。
關於日本政府與日本央行的聯合聲明：為何之前沒有這麼做。這份聲明意味著我們可以預期未來有更多寬鬆措施。
美銀美林首席日本經濟學家MASAYUKI KICHIKAWA：
“日本央行沒有延長作為購買目標的日本國債的期限。新的貸款計劃沒有設定規模上限，只要銀行將所得的資金貸給私人部門，這一點頗有爭議性。我認為外匯市場有點失望。問題並不在於銀行的放貸能力，而是在於匯率高企及通縮引致的融資需求缺乏。市場對日本央行還有期待。原本市場預期日本央行增加的資產購買規模是15-20萬億日元。 ”
東京日精基礎研究所首席經濟學家櫨浩一：
- 日央行所推出的寬鬆政策符合預期，但市場可能略有失望，以致日元走高。
- 日央行可能仍面臨貨幣寬鬆的壓力。歐美經濟復甦可能致日元進一步升值。若日本經濟未顯現明確的走出通縮的跡象，進一步寬鬆的政治壓力也將日趨增大。
- 日本國內經濟似正走向衰退，但是否真致衰退取決於全球經濟情況，日央行今年內應會推出進一步寬鬆政策。
The History of Silver: The Infographic
Our friends at VisualCapitalist who routinely produce the
best infographics (including an excellent gold series), have released
the first of a 3 part infographic series on silver: The History of Silver.
The MUST SEE infographic discusses silver’s malleability, aesthetics, anti-bacterial properties, rarity, and concludes with an in-depth examination of silver’s history as a currency.
For thousands of years, silver was inseparable with history and currency. Today silver is a store of wealth and absolutely essential for modern industry and technology.
Full silver infographic below:
From Visual Capitalist:
Click 大圖連結
The MUST SEE infographic discusses silver’s malleability, aesthetics, anti-bacterial properties, rarity, and concludes with an in-depth examination of silver’s history as a currency.
For thousands of years, silver was inseparable with history and currency. Today silver is a store of wealth and absolutely essential for modern industry and technology.
Full silver infographic below:
From Visual Capitalist:
Click 大圖連結
訂閱：
文章 (Atom)