QE 3 Will Surpass 1 and 2

Dear CIGAs,  
   
QE to infinity is as sure as death and taxes. The recovery in the US economy is not going to reach any take off speed, but rather return for a second recessionary experience post June of 2012.
 
QE 3 will surpass 1 and 2.
 
Gold will trade next between $1700 and $2111 before moving higher. The Gold Cartel will abandon their shorts over the next three years, having met their match in the marketplace .
 
Regards,
Jim
 
U.S. economy gains 120,000 jobs in March
Less-than-expected increase is smallest since last fall  
By Jeffry Bartash, MarketWatch
April 6, 2012, 10:31 a.m. EDT
 
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The U.S. economy added 120,000 jobs in March, the smallest increase in five months, to break a recent string of strong employment gains, the government reported Friday.
 
The number of jobs created last month, seasonally adjusted, fell well below expectations and failed to top the 200,000 mark for the first time since November.
 
The March report also contained other signs of weakness. While the unemployment rate fell to 8.2%, the lowest level since January 2009, the decline occurred because more people dropped out of the labor force. It's the first time that's happened this year.
 
That's usually a negative sign because it suggests jobs have become somewhat harder to find. Yet a raft of other economic data indicate that more companies plan to hire, so a decline in the labor force in March could be a temporary blip.
 
In another break with recent trends, job growth in prior months was not revised sharply higher. The economy added just 4,000 additional jobs in January and February than initially reported, according to the Labor Department's revised figures.
 
The latest employment report interrupts a string of economic reports showing the U.S. on an upswing after several years of lackluster growth following the end of the 2008-2009 recession.
 
"The number was much weaker than expected, but does this represent a shift in the trend? That's unclear," said Michael Gapen, an economist at Barclays Capital.
 
Yields on 10-year Treasury notes dropped 9 basis points to 2.095%, as investors sought the safety of government bonds. Yields move in the opposite direction to price.
 
The U.S. stock market was closed for Good Friday; U.S. stock futures fell sharply after the jobs data.

大環境小投資：新一輪QE遲早出台 - 潘國光

聯儲局上月會議紀錄顯示，局內支持量化寬鬆措施(QE)的比例下跌，暗示短期內不急於加推新措施。此外，西班牙拍賣新債成績未如理想，債息顯著上升，而整體歐洲的經濟數據持續疲軟，加深了衰退的風險。加上早前中國下調經濟增長目標，導致全球股市、滙市及大宗商品市場等上周進一步回落。

會議紀錄與前周伯南克暗示不排除QE3的演說有所矛盾，反映央行內意見出現分歧。自2008年底以來，每當經濟或股市氣氛逆轉，央行隨即引入量寬或量寬言論以圖支撐經濟，惟一旦量寬預期推升了通脹或原材料價格，央行隨即收回言論或暫緩新措施。

有聯儲局官員直言，金融市場已沉迷在量寬之中，不斷要求央行加推新的刺激措施。筆者卻認為，其實可能是美、歐、日央行沉迷在量寬之中，因為自08年底以來，央行一直沒有讓自由市場恢復有效運作，也沒有讓經濟自然調節。央行進出市場以及口頭幹預的舉動越來越頻繁，窒礙了基本因素及市場規律的自然表達。

分段吸非美元資產
過去多年來，美、歐、日政府均沒有認真處理其債務問題，只是把金融機構過多的負債，轉化為政府的負債，然而，政府本來就已經有超高的負債，惟有透過印鈔的手段來維持發新債。以美國為例，2011年全年就有六成以上的新發國債是由聯儲局買入，而估計在扭曲操作(LTRO)推行期間，央行正買入接近九成的新發長債。美、歐、日政府的負債，實際上已達到「大得不能倒下」的地步，央行在未來好幾年並不存在退市的可能。

聯儲局在考慮是否加推寬鬆措施時，表面上似乎是在平衡經濟增長及通脹之間的風險，但實際上只是故弄玄虛，不想讓市場過早猜到新措施的推出時間，掩飾其沉迷在印鈔買債的拖延伎倆，讓市場經常存着一定的隱憂，藉此維持美鈔及美債的「避險」角色。

筆者認為次季初段仍需保持高度警惕，口頭幹預頻繁，即表示市場越趨波動及反覆。隨着經濟及市場氣氛進一步轉弱，央行將會無可奈何地再次進場幹預，長線投資者可考慮分段吸納非美元資產。

潘國光
富邦銀行(香港)第一副總裁兼投資策略及研究部主管